Search found 1846 matches

by If it be your will
Mon May 11, 2020 2:31 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Covid-19

Again, you’re having to interpret what’s been said. How is anyone who thinks it might apply to them supposed to find out whether they are expected in work tomorrow or not? It's quite easy to interpret really: If you are a blue collar worker you need to start making preparations to go back to work. ...
by If it be your will
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Furloughed Pay
Replies: 92
Views: 3414

Re: Furloughed Pay

By furloughing staff a company still has to pay 20% wages despite not being able to make use of that worker. The only benefit to furloughing staff is the compromise between paying 100% wages (unfair on employer) or laying staff off (unfair on staff). The employer only has to pay the employee 80%, t...
by If it be your will
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Okay. forget it.
by If it be your will
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:11 pm
Let's get one point clear. Antibiotics don't work on ANY virus,
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2FBFb0030485
by If it be your will
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Is my lie ... So you didn't say this then...? but I'm the one lying... OK then... I can at least see where you've gone wrong now. You consider those two statements to be equivalent, which of course they are clearly not. To clarify, no, there will definitely not be 1 million deaths in the UK within ...
by If it be your will
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Read back through the thread if you're bothered, I'm not overly bothered but I know you've ignored my questions previously. Generally correct, although we (humans) have a vast amount of historical data to model the flu rates from, which is as accurate as it can be. With Covid-19, we don't have a co...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

That would be a complicated old bit of work which I'm sure somebody expert knows but it's such an esoteric point I can't imagine they'll ever be asked (althoug I know at least one person who will answer it simplistically). Seasonal flu death rate : 0.1%ish IFR for this new virus : 1% ish - best est...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

paulatky wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:26 pm
So in summary of the above posts this new virus is at least 10 times as deadly ad seasonal flu
Pretty much.

(And the existence/non-existence of a flu vaccine wouldn't materially alter that ratio.)
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

At least part of the difference between the death rate of this and of seasonal flu, is because we don't have a vaccine and we don't have any antibodies. Anyone got any estimates as to how much this is? Almost negligible. uptake of the vaccine is only about 75% amongst those that are offered it on t...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

That doesn't the virus itself worse than Flu, it just means an awful lot of people are protected from Flu by having been vaccinated against it. For crying out loud, give it up. No sane person thinks this virus is in any way comparable to seasonal flu. (And this isn't just a mindless insult either: ...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Who the Hell says that? Don’t tell me you read it on Facebook... look, my “expertise” in all this is limited to common sense, but I do know a very good virologist (family member) who is currently actively researching the treatments for this - it’s no more virulent than standard influenza, normal me...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

And any credible mortality rate that's being put forward by the experts just doesn't justify it. Sad to say but the reality is that some sort of QALY calculation needs to be made and the payback just isn't big enough to justify that sort of gamble. I'm not certain of that. Let's say the mortality r...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

If I thought I was dying I would agree to testing any new drug. This is part of the ethical conundrum. By the time you're nearly dying, and therefore willing to throw caution to the wind, it's already too late for any experimental intervention to do much good. Intervention has to be early. But that...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

How long would someone be ill with this? I mean how long to recover, not die. To give you an idea: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html Difficult. We don't know how many are missed from the data with completely inconsequential illness, for a start...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

I actually think lowbanks come out with a good idea, you might as well test some drugs on dying people, there’s nothing to lose, I know it’s not ethical but will speed science up. This is already being done. Stuff is being thrown at people without clear evidence everywhere. The Italians, for instan...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

With the common side effects & interactions that’ll only be suitable for some people even if it was successful, some high risk groups may consider the best option is to leave it well alone & let nature find a way. https://www.everydayhealth.com/drugs/chloroquine Perhaps, yes. It's not without risks...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:39 pm
I think it will come, it’s just when!!!!
There's what, maybe 8 weeks left to find it? Jeez I hope you're right, but right now I can't think what it might be.
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Grumps wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:32 pm
What do you base your theory on?
c50% infection rate with a c2% mortality rate. That is (an average approximation) of the growing consensus of the current trajectory. This explains the dramatic interventions made by governments that are not made for seasonal flu.
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

FactualFrank wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:20 pm
Never had Chloroquine but used to be on a metabolite of it, Hydroxychloroquine.
Interestingly enough, a recent in vitro study in China suggests Hydroxychloroquine might be more effective than chloroquine phosphate (so if you have any left in the back of the cupboard!).
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

You hit the nail on the head when you said this virus could be worse, by the same logic it might not be worse....we don't know, nobody knows,certainly not you, or me, but I'll stick to the current facts and not try to guess what might,or might not happen. If death rates hit the same as flu I might ...
by If it be your will
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Thought it was time for a chloroquine update: The Chinese are using it first line The Koreans using it with or without Kaletra The Dutch using it as first line (adding Kaletra in serious cases) The Italians in combination with Kaletra as first line The French are starting trials It's clearly not a w...
by If it be your will
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Gordaleman is basically the coronavirus equivalent of Comical Ali, the Iraqi information minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF_D9ILqmQo The virus isn't bad...we crush the virus and it ran into the desert like rats...we expelled the virus from the airports, and we crush them...the virus is a s...
by If it be your will
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Why are we 15 days behind them? What's your basis for that, statistically or on some other basis? Interestingly, I've had a half-hearted attempt at projecting it. It's not particularly robust, but it looks like - in nearly all countries individually as well as collectively - the number of cases dou...
by If it be your will
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

There'll definitely be some of that but as the science continues to develop there seems less reliance on that. There are, of course, other views among credible scientists but the WHO report this week suggested not so much. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slo...
by If it be your will
Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

I wouldn't rely too much on a vaccine. There's a vaccine for Flu and it still kills thousands every year in the UK. In the unlikely event that this virus ever comes near Flu's figures, then maybe I'll worry a little bit. It killed 100, 000 in Britain in 1989 / 90. Until then, I'll wash my hands and...
by If it be your will
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

****, you're thick. For all the ridicule, derision and hostility that has been thrown at Lowbank over the last month, and nothwithstanding his occasional drift into conspiracy theory territory, his central message of ' This is going to be really, really bad, you know... ' unfortunately looks to be ...
by If it be your will
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Chloroquine has some effect in in vitro studies but as yet no human data and I have no idea what the concentration used in the in vitro studies and animal mice studies relates to the dose humans can tolerate but no doubt we will hear something soon Likely it would first be used in those desperately...
by If it be your will
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

I've done the lampposts. The trees are on my to-do list. I have not spent days - but like you say, you seem to have found something / somethings more than is available on a cursory glance (I had previously googled exactly what you suggested). I can see some articles over the last couple of weeks su...
by If it be your will
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:53 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Although there are some reports about this as a possible element of treatment and some studies going on, I can't see anything like the wind behind it you seem to. What's your source that there is this "increasing" possibility that it will be "our saviour"? I've spent hours and hours (so many hours!...
by If it be your will
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

It looks increasingly as if chloroquine, a 70 year old antimalarial, will turn out to be our saviour.

(Why am I the only one banging on about this??)
by If it be your will
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Gordaleman, I think the difference between SARS and this virus was that SARS was less easily transmitted and died a death so to speak early on and as a result moves to develop a vaccine were stopped It was concluded that SARS was not transmissible until the patient was symptomatic. This meant there...
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Is what you previously posted on this thread... All I have done on this thread is to highlight why your closed case calculations were misleading, now you’re attempting to changed your mind with a slight of hand and you’re now using another (more accurate, but still not the right way to define predi...
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

I have avoided this thread so far because I had a good idea what to expect...and I was right. I have read some of page 1 and some of page 9 and left the rest alone. Conclusion: never in the history of man has so much expert opinion been put forward by so many with no knowledge at all of what they a...
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

ClaretAndJew wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:39 pm
I salute and indeed bow to all of your superior knowledge.
You're not stupid. I'd actually be quite interested in your interpretation of the information available, if you'd like to contribute.
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Reading this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... nomy-falls

I think it's reasonable to suggest that efforts at containment have failed.
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

ClaretAndJew wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:52 am
When did all these UTC posters get their degrees/doctorates in pathology/epidemiology/pharmacology
I think that little jibe has been done on this thread 3 or 4 times already. We're just interested in trying to piece the information together, that's all.
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

No, you're the one that's cherry picking stats. I'm looking at the latest current data available. You are looking at worst case scenarios and multiplying by 100 or more. Do you accept that only 0.125% of the people in Hubei Province have contracted the virus? Most of whom have recovered fully, than...
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Your assumption that 60% of a population will get the virus is ridiculous. In Hubei province, the epicentre of the virus, where for a long time people didn't even know about it, and took no precautions at all, only about 70,000 people have become infected. With a population of 58.5 million, that's ...
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:50 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Just found this, for those wondering what the definition of 'severe or critical' was. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... ame=iossmf . I assume it's right.
by If it be your will
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

The stats you are using are, I presume, the figures on the worldometer or something like them here, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries which currently show 77,345 cases in total in China, cumulative, since the outbreak began; 2,593 deaths, 25,066 recoveries, the rest still being t...
by If it be your will
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Strange then that the WHO who I'm sure know more about the situation than anyone on here, say that after a faltering start, China are doing everything possible to reduce infections. So much so that infections have been falling for over a week now all over China. Do you think the WHO is in China's p...
by If it be your will
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

(I actually suggested that if 0.1% needed high dependency care, the NHS would lose nearly all it's high dependency capacity to coronavirus. 1% would overwhelm it by a long way.) I, too, see this as serious. That said, I'm not all that convinced about draconian quarantines/border shutdowns. We'd need...
by If it be your will
Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

FactualFrank wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:48 pm
18 months at the very least according to the people working on a vaccine. Phase 1 is due to start in April.
I agree. For the first wave at least, any vaccination program will likely be irrelevant. Chloroquine (which I mentioned ages ago) is showing considerable promise, though.
by If it be your will
Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

A super example of why many people don’t post anything on social media , within seconds you were attacked in a very strong and unwarranted manner. I thought it was very interesting and the use of a base value in tenths means is easy to scale the data . I know! It doesn't seem to matter however many...
by If it be your will
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:43 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

You said counters were welcome. OK, then. I'll put it another way. What credibility does the 0.01% have in your view ? What's its source? Why's it an appropriate number to base your calcs on? The 20% continues to ignore the likely (that's experts talking, not me) very large number of mild cases tha...
by If it be your will
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

I counter that by suggesting that 0.01% is an entirely made up number with no basis. I'll go 99.9% or 0.00001% instead if we're just making numbers up. Oh, and official data doesn't suggest 20%, unless it's misinterpreted by our usual suspect. Oh my God! I have a go at answering a purely theoretica...
by If it be your will
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

In all the years of flu going around I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalised and certainly not in intensive care. Good Lowbank but it does happen and pregnant women can be badly affected by flu Some get ARDS which it seems is what is happening to some of these coronavirus folk and is what kil...
by If it be your will
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Zlatan wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:10 pm
...any responses to my question are null and void now as you’ve had time to google it
Ok. (I think.)
by If it be your will
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

In what way does the link you provided show the WHO "formally estimating" the likely future or population-wide mortality rate? You're reading what you want to read, not what it says. That's even before you get to the very different approaches taken by China in the two outbreaks in terms of acknowle...
by If it be your will
Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: The Bee Hole End
Topic: Covid-19
Replies: 13129
Views: 261420

Re: Coronavirus

Care to expand on what you mean by this? Are you saying WHO over exaggerated the impact of SARS and as such they’re doing the same again...??? This is not having kittens, stressing, spreading false rumours, or laying claim to be an expert that should be sent to China to sort all this mess out, or a...