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Mala591

Johnson's proposal is (allegedly) that ALL imports into NI pay EU customs tax. If the import stays in NI then the importer can apply for a rebate if the UK tax is lower than the EU tax. If the import passes across the border into ROI then it doesn't matter because EU customs tax has already been pai...

Mala591

AndrewJB wrote:Johnson’s Surrender Bill. “I want Brexit so bad, I’ll hand over Northern Ireland”

Imo it is time that the 'problem child' (NI) left home (UK) and matured into a self-sufficient and independent adult.

Mala591

Ok. Let's turn this round, since I was making the same point as Lancs yesterday. Other than the removal of the backstop, (which wasn't a part of the WA, merely a temporary solution to the border issue), how is it different to May's deal? The EU made it clear that they wouldn't be reopening negotiat...

Mala591

Imo he should retire from international football and concentrate on his 'far more important' club career.

Mala591

Free political advice for Labour: Let your MPs have a free vote on the new WA (assuming we get that far) Get Brexit phase 1 out of the way and campaign for workers rights, environmental protection etc in the political declaration Focus your election campaign away from Brexit and on your new socialis...

Mala591

If this new WA is agreed and presented to parliament I will be watching with great interest how Labour MPs in leave majority constituencies vote (yes Julie Cooper this includes you).

Mala591

If we can get the first phase of Brexit over the line then it might be time for Northern Ireland to 'consider' becoming an independent country that could remain 100% in the EU. A democratic referendum perhaps?

Mala591

Lest we forget what all this is about: Independent international trade policy Free trade/tariff free trade deal with the EU Independent legal system Independent immigration policy Independent agricultural policy Independent fisheries policy No more net payment into the EU Free travel and movement ar...

Mala591

So what has happened today? Has Johnson offered a NI only CU backstop? This is the BIG offer/compromise that Varadkar was hoping for and it looks like he might have got it.

Mala591

Just to get back to the original question. Do you think May's withdrawal agreement would be passed if it was brought before parliament for a fourth time?

After all 'everybody is sick of Brexit'.

Mala591

summitclaret wrote:There won't be any ftd that we would want whilst the EU have us by the balls via a trapstop. Look how they have behaved this week.

On the other hand the EU and the UK are sick to death of the Brexit 'problem' and a free trade deal might be agreed surprisingly quickly.

Mala591

Does anyone think that May's withdrawal agreement might get passed by parliament if it was brought for the fourth time? Ok I agree that we COULD be trapped in the EU's CU and SM indefinitely BUT we might have an excellent free trade deal negotiated in a couple of years which would MINIMISE trade bar...

Mala591

If the EU and ROI dig their heals in, I can't immediately see a way around this, with the exception of a customs border down the Irish Sea and leave NI in the CU and SM. But even if the UK agreed to do that, it would surely, from a moral perspective, require NI's consent in the form of a referendum...

Mala591

...as May's withdrawal agreement makes a Lazarus like reappearance on the negotiating table...

Mala591

If the EU have made any recent compromises then they don't seem to have been reported in the press/media or have I missed something?

Mala591

Well no. If we relaxed our red lines we could get a deal tomorrow. I realise this doesn’t fit with your Brexit vision, but it’s a compromise that gets us out of the EU (and it only said ‘Leave’ in the ballot paper). But we have relaxed our red lines by offering an EU single market across the whole ...

Mala591

More problems already - Pretty major EU concession on backstop timing already rejected by the DUP, which sums up I think where they want to go. https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1181845952392503296 We can get a deal here, but we have to accept that the dogmatic DUP probably have to be sideli...

Mala591

You assume that there isn't going to be an alternative solution by then. That could range from NI joining the republic, us rejoining the EU all the way down to the EU collapsing. Certainly putting it off is a zillion times better than a "No Deal", especially for the economy. So, as the 31...

Mala591

If I was a Championship manager Kevin Long would be no.1 on my recruitment list.

Mala591

willsclarets wrote:Hey, Scotland calling. Can we have a referendum too?

The situation in Ireland is obviously politically worlds away from the situation in Scotland.

Mala591

Northern Irish business overwhelming back the backstop. People in Kettering and Wimbourne don't get that, which is why we are in a world of trouble But what happens when the backstop 'comes to an end'? The problem is just the same as today. Best to face up to and solve the problem today rather than...

Mala591

It doesn't though does it? Look, you can go down the Ringo route and just make things up about me if you want, but to a Brexit deal that guarantees the GFA would have my support. That would mean customs checks down the Irish Sea, us in a CU/SM scenario, or some variation of the above. All would sti...

Mala591

Extension scenario:

GE at the end of November
Tories campaign to guarantee a no-deal Brexit
Brexit Party stand down in all but 20 seats which are their best hopes (Burnley?)
Tories win election with 40 majority
No-deal Brexit in the middle of January

This is not what I want it is just a prediction.

Mala591

I think the EU are 'subconsciously' admitting that the backstop can never be replaced because a technological solution cannot (and will not) deliver the same reassurances (CU and SM). Only solutions they will accept are imo CU and SM border down the Irish Sea OR UK as a whole stay in the CU and clos...

Mala591

Perfectly summed up by the Ireland question that people don't seem to understand is what is, to brexiters, the EU "refusing to negotiate". The EU's withdrawal agreement has been rejected by parliament THREE times. The latest Johnson proposals seem to have a majority support in parliament ...

Mala591

Imo Johnson's WA proposals are definitely the way forward. An EU single market across Ireland is a major compromise and an electronic customs border is the only medium/long term solution. Giving the NI 'government' the power to review the agreement every four years will be unacceptable to the EU/ROI...

Mala591

No legal reason why the NI parliament cannot meet so I say again, the other parties should go ahead and meet. I suspect that Sinn Fein would soon start to feel left out and would decide it would be in the interest of their constituents to attend.

Mala591

Question about the NI assembly (Stormont):

Why is it still in a state of dissolution/suspension? If Sinn Fein refuse to attend why don't the other democratically elected politicians just go ahead without them?

Mala591

So would this be which of the following 1/ N.Ireland becoming its own separate country breaking away from the Union 2/ A single united Ireland 3/ A border between us an the EU that is controlled and administered on both sides by the UK without the EU have any control which you expect the EU to be o...

Mala591

They may be a small bunch of people but they are OUR people - we look after them, that is what sovereignty is. Cooking up a referendum at a temporary time of chaos when the polls are distorted one way is not the way to do it. Offering a referendum in 10 years time to test how things have bedded in ...

Mala591

willsclarets wrote:I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming that's a joke

Why would the suggestion that giving the people of Northern Ireland the democratic control over the future of their province be a joke?

Mala591

Back to Brexit:

The most logical solution to the 'latest impasse' would be for NI to have a referendum on whether they want to stay in the EU on not. They would probably vote yes and the backstop and most of the other insurmountable problems would dissappear.

Mala591

The EU could think a bit more creatively:

We will allow a two year backstop expiry on May's WA and if we still haven't agreed a free trade agreement then we will accept Johnson's WA.

That would allow more time for a technological customs border to be developed.

Mala591

It's not "greedy" to see a collective approach as a solution to problems. Addressing the problem of deep inequality here is the same as addressing the problem in other countries, in creating a working example to follow. Charity is wonderful, but it's not the answer. Changing the system so...

Mala591

martin_p wrote:On the table with who? Boris ‘we must ditch the backstop’ Johnson or the EU that have already rejected the idea?

Yes you're right. What I should have said is UNDER the table and labelled 'only to be opened in a national emergency'.

Mala591

Although the ROI are strongly against an expiry date on the backstop they might just decide that it is better than a no-deal outcome. This possibility is definitely still on the table.

Mala591

Next step is for the EU to formally list their objections/concerns in Johnson's draft proposals. Then several days of intense negotiations to try and reach a compromise acceptable to both sides. The indication that the UK parliament will support the Johnson proposals cannot be underestimated and thi...

Mala591

He won't gain that many. If he was serious about Labour MPs support, he'd have come back from the supreme court defeat in a conciliatory mood. Assuming the EU agree to his deal, there is a chance of Labour support, but they are essentially backing a Tory Brexit and pretty much guaranteeing a Tory e...

Mala591

But that would mean 10 DUP votes against straight away. That would kill it. I agree that it makes sense, but its has to get through Parliament and be acceptable to the EU. The time scale alone makes that nearly impossible, and the pillock has painted himself into a corner by insisting that we leave...

Mala591

Johnson's 'draft plan' will have a certain amount of negotiation flexibility built into it and I suspect that a customs and single market border down the Irish Sea is still a possibility until a 'technological solution' is available which has passed real life trading scenarios.

Mala591

I'm a little confused. Isn't this wonder, all-new, all-fantastic new super plan basically the same thing that got voted down three times in this Parliament already? How is it different to the backstop, which was supposed to be a red line? I genuinely don't see the difference. This new plan allows G...

Mala591

The FIRST thing that the EU should ask themselves is - can Boris get these new proposals through the UK parliament? I agree with other posters that he probably can. So the ball is now in the EU's court to negotiate the parts of the proposals which they can't accept BUT at all times bear in mind that...

Mala591

I predict that a deal will emerge from the latest UK proposals

Mala591

Interesting proposals:

EU/UK single market border down the Irish Sea - NI to remain in the EU single market.

Customs border across Ireland - majority of customs checks at origin and destination of goods but other checks needed which won't be done at or near the border.

Mala591

Fact check:

Latest figures for NET annual payment to the EU is £11 billion. Not quite £1 billion a month but not far off.

Mala591

A billion pounds a month would be much better spent on the NHS and social care. By staying in the EU we are depriving these essential and underfunded services from much needed investment.

Mala591

Lowbankclaret wrote:
00FCEBF3-2FBA-41AF-BBFB-C440FAD47480.jpeg

My show chickens.

I wonder which chicken will be the first to squawk

Chicken Boris, Chicken Jeremy or Chicken Nigel ?

Mala591

Apparently 95% of North / South trade in Ireland is already covered by the 'trusted traders' scheme which is an electronic system for dealing with vat, differing exchange rates etc. The governments plan seems to be to include customs information within this electronic system. Obviously there will ne...

Mala591

Under WTO terms, there has to be customs checks. Because of the GFA, the Irish govt and the EU are planning to do these away from the border (dundalk is mentioned I think on the motorway between belfast-dublin) That is a solution forced on the ROI and the EU by us. Not by them, they are trying to m...

Mala591

Lancasterclaret wrote:Thats not true.

its what Brexit backers want you to believe though!

Please explain in factual detail why my theory in incorrect. Thank you.

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