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Lancasterclaret

And here is the guy who was on after Oakeshott attempt to pretend "No Deal" is going to be ace. The one who explained reality to a bunch of people who listened but won't be persuaded of reality https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/18/cheering-no-deal-question-time-brexit" onclick="wind...

Lancasterclaret

And this series of tweets from a trade expert (who I went to school with bizarrely enough!)

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status ... 6494433281" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lancasterclaret

This is quite good (and simple!) on the EU-EU trade http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/january/tradoc_152998.1%20Trade%20in%20goods%20and%20customs%20tariffs.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Slightly more detailed but more importantly highlights how long these things take t...

Lancasterclaret

As long as you mention that there are tariffs (average about 3%) then that is fine dsr.

Lancasterclaret

Nice cast mate, 10/10

Lancasterclaret

Ringo, It took me a lot of time and its something I'm interested in but it was still a struggle getting my head around WTO rules The vast majority are relying on politicians and media outlets telling them the truth about what WTO actually means. You can disagree with that if you wish, but I don't th...

Lancasterclaret

But its the final democratic thing to do if we can't get a deal through Parliament Hamps

It shouldn't come to that if we can get the politicians to agree to a sensible deal.

Lancasterclaret

I don't think I could have been fairer summit. My first line says we need to get a deal and I end with saying that it won't unite the country. Hipper On QT last night, Isobel Oakshott was getting cheered to the rafters as she went on about a "No Deal" Brexit to a an area with a massive Toyota car pl...

Lancasterclaret

Neither are lying chancers telling provable lies

But its not stopping millions thinking they are the 21st century equivalent of the Delphic Oracle.

Lancasterclaret

Think as well you have to take into account where we live as well.

Lancaster has swung from leave to remain according to the latest polls, Burnley hasn't for example

Lancasterclaret

Think we just have to get a deal.

Only questions I can see on a 2nd ref would be "leave with no deal" or "remain" and no one could honestly say that would help heal the country.

Lancasterclaret

I know a couple.

But I'm not daft enough to think that means remain would win because of it.

Lancasterclaret

It does, but the personality counts as well.

Farage is leavers Blair mate. He might well be right on stuff*, but he's toxic.

*not to me like, but to others!

Lancasterclaret

Either way it is good news for leavers and bad for remainer

10% of people think he's ace.

90% of people think he's a self-serving narcissist all the way through to thinking he's a Russian Spy.

Its great news for people like me, cos plenty of leavers can't stand him

Lancasterclaret

Got a bit excited in the lizard-human sex scene apparently

Lancasterclaret

Makes sense if he was a lizard to be honest

"Sun dazzled him" apparently, more likely to have given him an unexpected energy boost which caused him to floor it.

Lancasterclaret

That makes no sense at all.

Why wouldn't they?

Lancasterclaret

Well, it would have to be a new one then, as the UKIP/Robinson alliance has cost them big style.

Would be a weird one, as you'd expect pro-remain parties to do well as well.

Lancasterclaret

He knows the EU better than anyone

True, his knowledge of the EU expenses claims are second to none.

Lancasterclaret

Yeah he was.

Lancasterclaret

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/house/house-magazine/101183/common-market-20-inside-campaign-norway?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=48064fef3d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_18_06_52&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-48064fef3d-190296737" onclick="window.open(this.href);...

Lancasterclaret

Don't think its fair to say you shouldn't drive at 97, but certainly there is an argument for re-tests above a certain age.

Lancasterclaret

HOW DARE YOU MOCK DEMOCRACY

IF WE DONT GET OUT WAY, WE WILL BE ON THE STREET AND WE' WILL FORCE THIS ON PEOPLE COS WE ARE THAT DEMOCRATIC.

Lancasterclaret

Those who are now 20-24 were old enough to vote then so cannot be included in this new demographic. No, but they are still in the 75% remain bracket. it only swings above 50% to leave at 50+ (and only just then), it only gets to 75% leave at 70+ (I think) Putting it bluntly, people can change their...

Lancasterclaret

No one is suggesting that.

All I saying is that about 3/4 of young people vote remain and about 3/4 of old people vote leave. Thats what the polls say.

Its not exactly rocket science to work out from that demographics have a part to play.

Lancasterclaret

Crikey boys, I thought it was a really obvious gag

If this is what Brexit does to people then I'm out.

Lancasterclaret

Biggest worry for leavers yet on QT last night.

Diane Abbott reckons leave would win a 2nd vote.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Lancasterclaret

Utterly baffling that our best manager for decades is still regarded as poorly as some do on here.

Give your heads a wobble. We are lucky to have him.

Lancasterclaret

One of my issues with Corbyn is his inability to see that Abbott is a vote loser. A big one.

Lancasterclaret

I'm a lefty, and she's getting pulled apart.

Not easy a position to be in defending Labour at the moment but still.

Lancasterclaret

Ah sorry, cos you liked a tweet I assumed you were watching it.

Its Diane Abbott gold at the moment!

Lancasterclaret

Come off it Damo, its not "losing their nerve"

Its recognising reality.

You are watching QT - the economic bloke just absolute nailed the reality of a "No Deal"

Lancasterclaret

Its not an argument Damo.

Its fact.

Thats the problem here. I get why you don't want to accept it but the reality is that remain is getting stronger. That alone should be enough to ensure there is a No deal.

Lancasterclaret

Keeping it without being in it isn't going to happen sadly.

We are just going to have to hope that the power of the blue passport is still strong! :-0

Lancasterclaret

It is with Brexit mate!

Brexit crosses party lines. Thats why its relevant!

Lancasterclaret

Yes it does, but its the timescale (and I don't want to argue over this either!)

Example - Say there are 2 million more young people, about 2 million less old people. There are not 2 million people in the middle who changed their mind inbetween 2016-2019.

Lancasterclaret

Well there are always going to be people who change their minds.

I have no problem with that, but as my concerns are 80% economic/20% rise of extremism with this I won't be one of them.

But I accept that the ideal scenario is a deal.

Lancasterclaret

Again, its the time scale that is the key. Its pretty simple this one. More voters are going to vote for remain because they are younger, and less voters are going to vote for leave as they are dead. (sorry if it sounds a bit morbid!) You are effectively trying to deny that the sun comes up in the m...

Lancasterclaret

I don't think I've explained myself very well.

What you are talking about happens over a period of years. This is a short timescale compared to that (though it seems much longer!)

Thats why it absolutely matters

Lancasterclaret

If we can't agree a deal then its a national failure that will make Suez look like a cakewalk.

Reservists are being called back into the army in case of a "No Deal" btw.

Which is frankly scary enough in its own right.

Lancasterclaret

Its not though. No doubt there are middle aged people slowly becoming more right wing. But in the context of the Brexit debate, the young vote remain (75%) and those that are dying off vote to leave (75%) It not only matters, its crucial to how this will play out, neither party can afford to ignore ...

Lancasterclaret

Jesus, are we seriously back to "we just need to believe more"?

I mean, come on!

Lancasterclaret

Andrew, everybody knew that the confidence vote was a waste of time. It had to be done, and now its done. Now move on to what is possible with the current parliamentary arithmetic please (and what is official labour policy) Which a different deal (softer brexit though) or another vote. Thats all the...

Lancasterclaret

Anti "No deal" deals arriving in Parliament on Monday which will probably pass (unless Labour really are as bad as we all make out)

*EDIT - apparently need to control the debate first with bills and amendments

Lancasterclaret

Yes I agree with all that.

I don't think a 2nd ref will stop that, but to get to a 2nd ref then Parliament will change the law to either revoke it (or with the support of the EU) to extend it.

I'm like you, I can't see how we can't get a deal from here but you never know.

Lancasterclaret

The dangers of civil unrest are after economic hardship and the like, so the chances are actually increased in the event of a "No Deal" Brexit.

Lancasterclaret

Actually I voted 'remain'. My bigger concern is our democracy. But that line I quoted suggests that leaving without a deal is the position that all leavers voting for. That is blatantly false. I'm still of the opinion that there will be a deal but if that fails, then I would argue that a "No Deal" ...

Lancasterclaret

My plan to avoid getting lamped in a Brexit civil war is simple. The Brexiteers will use each Wetherspoons like fortified strong points. They won't call it the Maginot Line (filthy foreign name eh?) but something patriotic like the "Fortifications of Farage". Course, they will have all the problems ...

Lancasterclaret

With pensioners?

I expect the really fat ones falling on you might hurt a bit but you are almost certain to get up before them!

Lancasterclaret

Come off it Quick, you know as well as I do that every leaver who has gone to the great big Brexit in the sky has been buried with strict instructions for their money to be used in the continuing search for a big red reset button which magically sends us back to 1957.

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