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Prof. Ferguson reckoned there could be 50k new cases per day in China so there might be huge numbers. I think the evidence is that this is worse than flu. Significantly worse. Not apocalyptic though. So we get on with it. It'll come here at some stage. This is the thing: it's either extremely infec...

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Why wouldn’t Ace2 receptor concentration have an effect it that if what the virus needs to enter cells and have its effects namely multiplication escape cells and infect other cells Any infection depends upon the inoculation dose and the persons susceptibility doesn’t it? It's plausible, yet I'd be...

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The main thing that you insist on ignoring, despite multiple experts saying it, is the likely massive underreporting of the number of cases who never even make it into these stats. This is the big unknown. An awful lot hinges on this. Their number would need to be in the region of 2 million for Cov...

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In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datas...

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I tried, but I was unable to find supporting evidence for these theories, too. Anyone else got any?

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When searching for evidence that the oriental population might be more susceptible than the rest of the world (an avenue a few posters seem keen to explore) this really was the best I could come up with, I'm afraid. I've said twice I don't think it will prove to be relevant. The very fact this was t...

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Source? There's one tiny study of less than a dozen people I can find but nothing that backs up such a statement about the general populations. Source for which bit particularly? That coronavirus enters via ACE2 or that density of ACE2 is higher in the oriental population? If it's the former, there...

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Might not be a bad idea to compare the environment of Chinese people and cities concerning this outbreak with ours and possible reasons why the data on morbidity and mortality could be different. The Chinese are different from us genetically, one example being the higher incidence of lactose intole...

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Since I'm no expert, I'm going to go with the sort of consensus which those with knowledge seem to be going for that it could be anything up to 2% but possibly less when you factor in under reporting of mild cases and the likelihood that we will get some respite due to seasonality if we can get as ...

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Zlatan wrote: ↑
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:01 am
Did you digest what was stated or just assume what this expert said was gospel? He qualified that statement if you read it and not over react “if unchecked”...

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And I qualified mine with 'If it's not contained'. (I could have used 'unchecked' rather than 'not contained' I guess.)

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Who the Hell says that? Don’t tell me you read it on Facebook... look, my “expertise” in all this is limited to common sense, but I do know a very good virologist (family member) who is currently actively researching the treatments for this - it’s no more virulent than standard influenza, normal me...

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Don’t forget not all 66M of the population contract influenza I’m actually shocked you’re not concerned about 13000 deaths from influenza, but you’re having kittens about a virus you know little about No, but consensus seems to be 60-80% will get this if it's not contained. (I'm not having kittens....

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Since I'm no expert, I'm going to go with the sort of consensus which those with knowledge seem to be going for that it could be anything up to 2% but possibly less when you factor in under reporting of mild cases and the likelihood that we will get some respite due to seasonality if we can get as ...

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My preferred % would be 0.0. I hope someone comes up with a vaccine quick which keeps the percentage low. Currently my thinking is the Chinese have come up with a virus that’s pre disposed to be more virulent to Chinese to help overcome their problematic demographic. I think that due to the current...

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I think something similar to influenza is the most likely outcome in the UK if this takes hold - anywhere between 400 and 13000 deaths - which equates to between 0.01% and 2.6% I make 400/60,000,000 to be 0.0007%, and 13000/60,000,000 to be 0.02% of the UK population. 0.5% would be about 300,000 UK...

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Zlatan wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:43 pm
Your 18% includes people who have recovered or died... died is bad (Only 2% of the total cases) recovered is good...

He's saying that of those that are known to have had the virus, and whose illness has reached it's conclusion one way or the other, 18% are now dead.

This is true.

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Those of us who taking a more balanced approach really shouldn't try and persuade those who aren't. Our apparent stupidity and bravado in the face of how they are (in my view mis-) interpreting every stat or piece of information is just another source of stress to them. Out of genuine interest, whe...

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I agree, I think it will be a lot lower. The 2% figure makes everyone all feel better, whereas the same calc is also valid that only 10% of people have recovered which would not do the same. Having said that the fact 0.07% of people outside of China having died makes me feel a lot better. That’s le...

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you cant conflate the data like that. Of those active cases none of them have actually died, granted that there are 8000 or so considered serious and some may die from that group, but close to 45000 considered to be mild where in reality you'd expect 0 deaths from that group. Your 19% or 18% is sca...

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AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:01 am
Now that’s what I call drug rep talk !

Unlike Remdesivir, it's off patent, so anyone could make it if they wanted to, and it's very cheap and easy to make. I don't think there's much money to be made in Chloroquine, except, perhaps on the black market in a week or two!

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OK then "You SHOULD know better..." Remember, all I've done is look at the information available. Having considered the prospect that this could actually be quite a serious thing, I've calmly invited others to put forward an analysis that would support the conclusion that it isn't all that serious,...

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I keep staring at the data, and bits of reports in journals, and I hope to be doing so in a dispassionate way (one can never truly know). It's becoming increasingly difficult to make a persuasive case that this outbreak is going to be anything other than diabolically bad. It would require an assump...

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Zlatan wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:11 am
then you would know better

You think so?

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Zlatan wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:09 pm
some posters on here...

"I dont have a medical degree, but I identify myself as a doctor, it's who I am..."

https://youtu.be/OW7dASdQIgU

And if I did have a medical degree?

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Well, you could re-work your numbers. Your estimate of 500,000 cases of the virus means that less than 1 in 20 of the population of Wutan have it; even if every case is in Wutan, which they aren't. And then you go on to assume that virtually everyone in the world is going to get it. These things, l...

If it be your will

I keep staring at the data, and bits of reports in journals, and I hope to be doing so in a dispassionate way (one can never truly know). It's becoming increasingly difficult to make a persuasive case that this outbreak is going to be anything other than diabolically bad. It would require an assumpt...

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Thinking about it, I think I'd quite like a PM that willfully and flagrantly picked his nose. Alas, Corbyn is never going to be PM . Or, indeed, be of any relevance or have any material influence on any event of any importance ever again.

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There are 40,000 confirmed cases in China. About 4,000 of these have either recovered or died, so 36,000 are currently ill with confirmed coronavirus. Are all these still in hospital? Are there really 36,000 coronavirus patients in hospital in China right now? If not, where are they? This would repr...

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Your stats are based on people who were sick enough to need hospital treatment. That would be expected to be a much higher figure than the death rate based on everyone who is infected. One of the problems of estimating death rates is that they don't know who was infected but with no symptoms or wit...

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Lowbank might have a point here. The WHO 2% estimate looks suspiciously like a straightforward deaths/cases number. But deaths are a lagging indicator, and are generally occurring 1-3 weeks after symptoms start. Take this article from (the globally recognised and highly respected journal) JAMA: http...

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What happened with Sars and Bird Flu, how did they come up with a cure for those? Did those take 18 months to get to market? Bird flu (H5N1 type) has never shown sustained person to person transmission. As yet, it's simply not very well adapted to humans. Sars wasn't cured, but it was contained. Th...

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They'd rather the country fail under Trump, than pay more tax under Sanders. It seems so. We've just had the exact same thing happen in the Labour Party. The established actors within the party would rather lose as centrists than be victorious as lefties, and do anything to make it happen (cheered ...

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It's entirely funded privately I don't agree with your view on humanity committing itself expending resources, it's actually keeping people in employment & furthering science. Every day more progress is becoming more advanced it'll be years away from success, I was reading last night the idea is gr...

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It wouldn’t be available on the NHS, I could be corrected but there’s only 3 facilities out there accommodating this, 2 in America & 1 in Russia. I believe such a treatment/process would be funded entirely private due to the high risk associated. Of course it wouldn't, that would be silly. But even...

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They can't even freeze sperm, a really simple 23 chromosomal entity, without half of them getting wiped. A human brain? With intact memories? With a personality? The entire structure is completely and irretrievably wrecked the moment it starts to freeze. This is just so obviously a total scam. Pleas...

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The interesting thing about this virus, assuming it isn't contained, won't be the number of direct deaths. At the moment the case fatality rate appears to be about 2% - appallingly high - but that is very likely to be a huge overestimate resulting from many non-fatal cases not being recorded. It'll ...

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If you are born in BB10, attend a chaotic, overcrowded primary school, with your parent(s) on a zero-hour contract, graduate to 3rd-rate secondary school, get shunted onto a pointless college course you were promised would be useful but turned out to be completely useless, then working a zero-hour j...

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Just following the Labour leadership race, and yes, I think I'd rather Starmer win it than RLB. As I suspected, deep down RLB doesn't represent socialists at all. Better to let the Labour liberals have a shot at the next election, and for the socialists to gracefully stand to one side (for now), tha...

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If he wants to do a degree, maybe this. Big industry going forward, work can't be outsourced to China, and unlikely to be automated away by AI:

https://www.cumbria.ac.uk/study/courses ... anagement/

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In the last 3 years of the Labour government's budgets, which includes 2010-11 because that budget was set by Labour, the government borrowed £389 billion. Maybe that level of continued borrowing would have generated vast profits; who knows. Though I don't see how spending 15-20% more than your inc...

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I think there's a fourth group, though of course you might be counting them among the socialists. The fourth group is the "I am working class and always have voted Labour and always will vote Labour". (Tories have their equivalent as well, of course.) But this is the group that Labour lost last tim...

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Hi iibyw, as I understand it, there are 4 candidates in the contest: Starmer, Long-Bailey, Phillips and Nandy. The others aren't getting the 20+ MP/MEP support - and I think Barry Gardiner has already declared himself out. Which of your 3 groups do you put each candidate in? RBL, yes, a "young Corb...

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Oh there's plenty of things to attack him about, which would be the case for any DPP. It's similar to the issues I have with people complaining about Corbyn with **** like "he hates the country". There's enough real stuff without having to resort to making things up. I seem to remember there were i...

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Not entirely sure whether this is the start of the "smear" articles on Starmer or just an incompetent writer. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-cps-ian-tomlinson-john-worboys-a9276321.html In 2009 and 2010, Starmer refused to prosecute the police killers of Jean Ch...

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https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader If I was to place a bet I would go with Rebecca Long-Baily at 5/1, or Barry Gardiner at 100/1 I was wondering when he'd make his move. This would shake things up a bit (should he get the required number of nominations): https:...

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The manifesto was so superb, Andrew, it gave the Conservatives an 80 seat majority. I really do admire your allegiance to the socialist agenda currently espoused by your beloved Labour Party. Keep that red flag flying high, my friend. AndrewJB and I barely agree on anything these days, but Brexit a...

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Whomever the members choose - it's not my party. What I can say with certainty is the next leader will come under relentless bombardment from the right wing press. Witness Damo above describing them all as "an absolute mess". No citation for that, and no reasons given why Johnson is better. Starmer...

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I don't think the Tories will ever stop finding other people to blame for what goes wrong in this country. Their track record on it has been too successful. Overspending on poor people and the disabled - check! Migrants - check! The EU - check! I'm sure we'll see more on that one soon. I can almost...

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KS would be a good bet to stand up to Boris, but in a one person one vote and the power of Momentum and the Unions isn't KS too far to the right of the party? The hard left and Momentum will want JC mark 2 I'm not convinced Starmer is the man to stand up to Boris. Lavery just might be, though! The ...

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I'm not sure whether being a remainer will be that important. Realistically Brexit will be irreversible after the end of the month so it's going to be less of an issue ( so long as whoever the leader is recognises that ). It really shouldn't be, no. It's possible, but I just can't picture Starmer, ...

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