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Lowbankclaret

Here is my (theoretical) explanation as to why using the death rate from closed cases is misleading - yes it is purely hypothetical and the figures are manufactured, but only to demonstrate the point that the closed case death rate is not ever going to be accurate until all cases are closed. http:/...

Lowbankclaret

Here’s the case rate outside of China.
It’s not an absolute true exponential curve, the measures are slowing its spread. But it still a bad news graph.

: C516D31C-3B41-4E63-BB92-CDCFE86B4B82.png (254.2 KiB) Viewed 1869 times

Lowbankclaret

In shock news over night.

The World Health Organisation has announce the fatality rate is 3.4%.

Lowbankclaret

There has never been a 20yr old winger who performs every single week play for us before, nevermind come through our youth set up. Agreed he has been fantastic. Just the last few games he has started to instinctively turn back and run away from the full back. Just an observation, hope it’s not a ch...

Lowbankclaret

ClaretMoffitt wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:48 pm
ive got a cough and shortness of breath since yesterday.

what do you reckon lads? Is this the golden ticket?

If you have a thermometer, keep checking your temperature, if it stays around 37 you should be fine.

If it gets to 39, phone 111.

Lowbankclaret

Gordaleman wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:40 pm
So now YOU know better than the experts eh? Hypocrite.

The data tells you it’s not working, does not take much brain power to see that.

Lowbankclaret

So 10 days ago 28 countries had declared cases, now its 79. 5 countries have declared it contained. 1 is seeing it reducing, China. So in 73 countries it is increasing, the containment actions appear not to be working. The reason China is allegedly having success it is people are confined to their h...

Lowbankclaret

He was pants at Newcastle!

Lowbankclaret

Dr Tedros's main advice was that each country had to look at their own situation as there was no one-way-fits-all means of tackling the outbreak. "Each country must have its own approach but it must start with containment," he said. This was a "unique virus with unique features" and the WHO would h...

Lowbankclaret

It is getting serious now. We’re off out shopping in a bit, going to stock up on plenty of the basics - rice; pasta; milk; flour; frozen veg etc and not forgetting emergency supplies of water. Our 10 litre bottle of hand sanitizer arrived today, so we’re stocked up with that. I’m so glad I’ve had m...

Lowbankclaret

I was confident we could turn over Newcastle but the performance wasn’t great.

Thinking 1-1, but head wants 2-0.

Lowbankclaret

The pattern of data I have observed in the previous countries is you get little spikes like the 13 Sunday. Then a few days low numbers like we see today 5, probably similar tomorrow and the next. Then you get another spike like a 20, then back to single figures for a few days. Building bigger in eac...

Lowbankclaret

Zlatan wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:28 pm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sammay/202 ... virus/amp/

Holy **** no.

Lowbankclaret

IFR is the best estimate of the people who actually know what they're talking about. It might be wrong because it might be wrong because there are lots of uncertainties. But multiple teams of people who understand the medicine and the epidemiology have looked at it and come up with figures in the 0...

Lowbankclaret

I have taken a screen shot of today’s data so next Sunday I can provide the CFR data. It might be scary.

To me the IFR data is like sticking your knob in the wind and guessing it’s direction.

Lowbankclaret

How predictable that you go away and do some research - although how you managed to spend this much time and still seem completely unaware of IFR is beyond me - and can only find worse numbers. Despite having been very clear that you were following the "WHO fatality rate" (or whatever non-existent ...

Lowbankclaret

IFR <> CFR No having done some research I am not using CFR. But you do understand If I do that to CFR, the percentages are going to go up. It has credit, based on the fact that deaths are a current measure, ie you know they are dead. The current infected number is 7 days behind and so you use a num...

Lowbankclaret

Zlatan wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:23 pm
Sorry I missed you, I was intending to find you at half time after the loo... suffice to say, it was difficult to get anywhere

Hey no worries.

Might be a few games before we can watch the clarets.

Hopefully can arrange a meet at a home game!

Lowbankclaret

thatdberight wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:40 pm
IFR <> CFR

So I believe that’s the two calculations I have used.

If not you need to link stuff to educate me.

Lowbankclaret

Zlatan wrote: ↑
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:35 pm
Nah... wouldn’t want to catch coronavirus

The daughter and I got on MOTD, first for everything!

Lowbankclaret

As I said, I think there is an aspect in the data that could give us a clue on how to help us control this here.

Lowbankclaret

Hi Lowbank, where are you getting your figures? Johns Hopkins current stats (4:43 p.m. today) Total 87,470 (similar to your's), deaths 2,990, recovered 42,670 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Spore: Total 102, Deaths 0 recovered 72. (see my post ...

Lowbankclaret

You keep trying to give unwarranted credibility to this stat by describing it as the WHO's. It's just a simple division. Any idiot can do that. It's not the latest figure they've published as research into possible IFR - a number you don't like because it's too low. Well it’s how I read they calcul...

Lowbankclaret

Anyway this is what I find interesting statically speaking. Worldwide Total affected 87,704, died 2,995, active 4,202, recovered. So the current closed case percentage of deaths is 6.5%. The World heath calc Fatality is 3.4% . Looking at Singapore at one end of the scale. Total case 974, died 0, Act...

Lowbankclaret

It's never been your ability to divide that's been an issue. It's your inability to understand what stats mean. There will be lots of variables. General health, health care system, possibly weather, political will, ability to control their population. Introspecting on Iran's mortality rate (and the...

Lowbankclaret

This is true (much higher % than China / Singapore). See. It's not hard to get agreement. Just say things that are true. The percentages I have quoted are correct, but you still argue on a daily basis about it. What are thoughts then on the Iran stats. They are horrendous on the opposite scale to S...

Lowbankclaret

China over 55s 22% of population over 65s 11% Singapore over 55s 23% over 65s 14% Also, the jury is entirely out on the link between temperature and THIS virus. There are some reasons to think it may help but, for example, the CDC is saying there is no demonstrated link as at now. Singapore has aro...

Lowbankclaret

The UK demographics have a much bigger % of old er people.

: 79B48256-2D66-4EDB-B41F-1BEE75A9C415.png (316.38 KiB) Viewed 1882 times

Lowbankclaret

China over 55s 22% of population over 65s 11% Singapore over 55s 23% over 65s 14% Also, the jury is entirely out on the link between temperature and THIS virus. There are some reasons to think it may help but, for example, the CDC is saying there is no demonstrated link as at now. If I said black w...

Lowbankclaret

I had a look at the demographics of Singapore and interestingly it does not have a large section of olde people. Perhaps this is a contributing factor to the their being a statistical difference. Add the to SC comments on the general understanding of good hygiene in the area after SARS. Plus they ke...

Lowbankclaret

Seat 545. On the concourse having a beer

Lowbankclaret

Zlatan wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:03 am
Nothing like an away day at St James Park to kick it off eh

Should be at the ground an hour before kick off.
Row Q

Lowbankclaret

I must be part of the conspiracy to cover it all up then :lol: Good to hear from you. Thankyou for the feedback on what’s going on there. I think the interest is that statistically Singapore appears to be progressing differently to other parts of the world. I was wondering if the demographic of Sin...

Lowbankclaret

I haven't researched anything about SARS so won't comment, reading other posts lowbank claret might be a better person to ask & not me. The flu virus kills less than 1%. Using the World Health Orgs method of fatality, last time I calculated it , it was running at 3.37%. Closed case % has now come d...

Lowbankclaret

Singapore clarets last post was kinda scoffing at your dramatic post about getting a bit of a cough and the sniffles. It was a few weeks ago so if its since killed him i'm gonna look a bit silly but i'll take my chances and repeat the question - where the hell have you got the news that Singapore i...

Lowbankclaret

I'm in touch with my work colleagues in Spore on a daily basis. They are working from home, minimising the occasions they need to travel around. They've all cut back on eating out - which is a regular feature of Spore in virus-free times. Spore, South Korea, Japan as well as China (and some other c...

Lowbankclaret

Two claims about Singapore you made tonight. 1. It's on lockdown 2. They've cut off the internet Give a source and back it up or just sit at home gibbering instead of trying to get reassurance that your overwrought fears are are rational by shitposting. No? No source? Didn't think so. 1 where is Si...

Lowbankclaret

I wish people would stop trying to score points off each other at this time over this nasty virus.... There has been a lot of tosh pasted on this thread by a lot of different people. Personally I would rather get information from people that actually know about stuff, rather than have bits and piec...

Lowbankclaret

Go on then. Prove me wrong. Give a source that supports either of those two claims. You deserve to have a fight picked with you for posting garbage. Again. Repeatedly. I have posted data and percentages as quoted by governments. To you that is garbage, to me it’s data supplied by official sources. ...

Lowbankclaret

thatdberight wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:23 pm
No it's not.

This is just more random stuff you made up.

There's no evidence for any of what you just posted.

I now see the clear pattern in the data, and it’s not good news.

Lowbankclaret

thatdberight wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:23 pm
No it's not.

This is just more random stuff you made up.

There's no evidence for any of what you just posted.

You are just looking to pick a fight as normal.

Lowbankclaret

Now I have made a point of not making predictions.

But here goes one based on the conditions in Italy.

We will probably play two more games in the prem this season before severe disruption causes many matches to be called off.

I hope not but I think containment has gone out the window now.

Lowbankclaret

Couple of things of note, or perhaps not to some. I did quote one poster from Singapore, how it was going in Singapore. I noted today a comment in the press that Singapore was under a similar lock down to China. I wonder if that’s why Singapore claret wasn’t able to reply. They have probably locked ...

Lowbankclaret

paulatky wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:37 pm
The 15% re-infection rate in China of those that have recovered is a very worrying developement today.

I had not seen that stat.

Do you have a link.

Lowbankclaret

I've been overwhelmed with the generosity of so many of our supporters this season but I've been blown away with the support we've received from the away fans and none more so than the Scousers and Geordies who were brilliant. In my experience of the people from the north east, that’s how they are,...

Lowbankclaret

Is there some meaning or message you're trying to communicate through this screenshot or is it just random? Apologies. It has been suggested that many people will be walking around with the virus but not know it. I was trying to point out that in the UK for the 13 cases we had, over 7000 tests had ...

Lowbankclaret

Great shout CT,

Will take a few tins of food!!

Lowbankclaret

To be strictly accurate, the number of identified cases has risen by 80. It means 80 people with the virus have been tested today who had not been tested before; what I don't know is whether these were just random and/or targeted testing which has diagnosed 80 cases which already existed but weren'...

Lowbankclaret

I don’t think that either. I saw one predictive graph that estimated 54 million would be infected by 22nd of Feb. I didn’t mention or share it cause I thought that was crap. I question what experts say, as most of the time it’s PC bullsh1t. I have not predicted any outcome, just questioned some of ...

Lowbankclaret

Are you planning on being anywhere before the game? I’ll be getting the bus into the Haymarket and walking to the ground and may take in a pub or two Me and the daughter are on a supporters coach so don’t know the plans. We should be at the ground an hour or so before kick off. Sure we can work som...

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