Covid-19

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thatdberight
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:01 pm

I believe China has recently confirmed that they are not including asymptomatic positive tests in their figures. Like all the figures, there are different standards being applied but that would certainly make a significant difference.

Just today they agreed (?) / decided (?) to change this so expect changes in their numbers.

This may have happened because two of their undercover social media operatives were outed by a British social media user of some brilliance who laid bare what no-one else had seen. Faced with this level of scrutiny, they've backed down.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:11 pm

Have any stats been released on how many we are now testing per day?

Caballo
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Caballo » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:30 pm

They did 8700 today

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:31 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:11 pm
Have any stats been released on how many we are now testing per day?
8,000 yesterday (BBC)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Caballo » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:36 pm

I've been confined to bedroom by the doctor at about half 4 today. Been given some antibiotics and an inhaler incase it's a chest infection. To be honest I can live with the cough but the periodical headaches and face ache (think sinusitis) aren't very pleasant, the fluctuations in temp are a bit ropey too.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:38 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:50 pm
While I don't believe their final numbers they are perhaps the best country in terms of the ability to stop it in it's tracks with a totalitarian centralized government.
They can lock down entire cities, build hospitals in a week, track everyone at all times, retool entire production lines, mobilize millions of medics.
And the public is so used to this they neither complain and happily submit to the invasions of privacy and curtailment of freedoms.

So I'm not really surprised they were able to halt it, they smothered it very effectively at the price of freedom.
Or they let a few thousand die so they can hold the whole world to ransom.

Let’s see how it pans out over the coming weeks.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:48 pm

Caballo wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:36 pm
I've been confined to bedroom by the doctor at about half 4 today. Been given some antibiotics and an inhaler incase it's a chest infection. To be honest I can live with the cough but the periodical headaches and face ache (think sinusitis) aren't very pleasant, the fluctuations in temp are a bit ropey too.
Your face ache... do you mean like a bruised bridge of your nose, spreading out under your eyes? If so, I’m currently experiencing that, along with a sore throat and mild head ache. I’ve been isolated for 2 weeks now, with the only human contact being my other half, and our 10 year old who had been coughing for nearly all of that 2 weeks.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:53 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:31 pm
8,000 yesterday (BBC)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612
Thanks. Still some way off where they said they be at this stage then.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:55 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:53 pm
Thanks. Still some way off where they said they be at this stage then.
Very much so.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Caballo » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:57 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:48 pm
Your face ache... do you mean like a bruised bridge of your nose, spreading out under your eyes? If so, I’m currently experiencing that, along with a sore throat and mild head ache. I’ve been isolated for 2 weeks now, with the only human contact being my other half, and our 10 year old who had been coughing for nearly all of that 2 weeks.
Are you sure your missus isnt punching you in your sleep?

In all seriousness, it's particularly above and below my left eye, down my cheek and into my upper gum. Don't have a sore throat. Docs told me 7 days completely by myself, wife and son 14 days or 7 days after they show any symptoms.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by TVC15 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:00 pm

1 in 4 doctors off sick now....and 1 in 5 nurses.
We are way behind other countries on the amounts of testing and they are now admitting they are struggling to get hold of the reagents needed.

8,000 is nowhere near what they said they would be at by now.

Every medical professional body has been raising the concerns for weeks.

The thousands of doctors and nurses self isolating because they can’t be tested - if they were there are reports saying that up to 85% could be clear and ok to go back to work.

With hospital admissions increasing quickly this is not a good position at all.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:02 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:50 pm
While I don't believe their final numbers they are perhaps the best country in terms of the ability to stop it in it's tracks with a totalitarian centralized government.
They can lock down entire cities, build hospitals in a week, track everyone at all times, retool entire production lines, mobilize millions of medics.
And the public is so used to this they neither complain and happily submit to the invasions of privacy and curtailment of freedoms.

So I'm not really surprised they were able to halt it, they smothered it very effectively at the price of freedom.
True, I agree with that assessment that’s how they’ve got the thing under control, I wish we could do the same albeit briefly but we aren’t geared up for it, it’s a small price to pay for losing some freedom, I mean how can you enjoy freedom if you are frightened of catching a potentially fatal infection all the time.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:08 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:02 pm
True, I agree with that assessment that’s how they’ve got the thing under control, I wish we could do the same albeit briefly but we aren’t geared up for it, it’s a small price to pay for losing some freedom, I mean how can you enjoy freedom if you are frightened of catching a potentially fatal infection all the time.
The problem comes when you want your freedom back after the crisis is past, those in power very rarely relinquish it.

Hungary a good example, just essentially became a dictatorship without time limit all the while cracking down on independent media outlets.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:09 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:58 pm
The more this goes on, the more I think the Government handling is at best poor and at worse negligent.

We are running out of ICU drugs.

We are running out of PPE.

Next week there will be a shortage of respirators and beds.

I worry next week will be an oh **** moment.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ion-swells

The latest opinion polls put you in a shrinking minority Lowbank Claret

YouGov's latest findings as of March 27th

"The latest wave of our coronavirus tracker shows a dramatic increase in Government approval, with even a majority of Labour voters thinking they are doing a good job

Over seven in ten (72%) now think they are doing well, up from 59% last week, with just two in ten (21%) now thinking they are doing badly, down from 31% last week. The biggest shift has been among those who voted for the Labour Party in December, with a majority (56%) of them now thinking the Government is handling this crisis well, compared to just 38% a week ago."

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:09 pm

Gove talking ******** today. We can't step up testing as much as we like because we don't have the chemicals. Not according to the Chemical Industries Association.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/statu ... 2974750720

thatdberight
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:18 pm

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:09 pm
Gove talking ******** today. We can't step up testing as much as we like because we don't have the chemicals. Not according to the Chemical Industries Association.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/statu ... 2974750720
"So government source says - which is true - that there is a global shortage of the reagent. As it happens @CMO_England
said this a couple of weeks ago, as has head of CDC in US."

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:19 pm

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:09 pm
Gove talking ******** today. We can't step up testing as much as we like because we don't have the chemicals. Not according to the Chemical Industries Association.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/statu ... 2974750720
It's nice to know that the government's harsher critics have totally discounted the idea of the government making mistakes.

I wasn't aware that politicians make a habit of telling lies which they know will be found out. Lies that they think they can get away with, maybe; but not lies that they know they will be caught at. If Mr. Peston in his role as unofficial spokesman for the entire but anonymous Chemical Industries Association is telling the truth, then it's still more likely that Gove is wrong rather than Gove is lying.

And in that case, the question would be why doesn't Gove know? And who has given him the inaccurate briefing? I presume the possibility that someone else has cocked up is not out of the question, and Gove's only mistake is in failing to check what his official has told him?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:34 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:19 pm
It's nice to know that the government's harsher critics have totally discounted the idea of the government making mistakes.

I wasn't aware that politicians make a habit of telling lies which they know will be found out. Lies that they think they can get away with, maybe; but not lies that they know they will be caught at. If Mr. Peston in his role as unofficial spokesman for the entire but anonymous Chemical Industries Association is telling the truth, then it's still more likely that Gove is wrong rather than Gove is lying.

And in that case, the question would be why doesn't Gove know? And who has given him the inaccurate briefing? I presume the possibility that someone else has cocked up is not out of the question, and Gove's only mistake is in failing to check what his official has told him?
Yeah you're right. It's not Gove's fault. Poor guy, someone just gave him an inaccurate briefing. Or worse, those troublemakers at the Chemical Industries Association are just stirring it up again.

We're all in it together and need to be grateful to the NHS workers. Apparently they didn't need better funding after all, just a round of applause.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:36 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:19 pm
It's nice to know that the government's harsher critics have totally discounted the idea of the government making mistakes.

I wasn't aware that politicians make a habit of telling lies which they know will be found out. Lies that they think they can get away with, maybe; but not lies that they know they will be caught at. If Mr. Peston in his role as unofficial spokesman for the entire but anonymous Chemical Industries Association is telling the truth, then it's still more likely that Gove is wrong rather than Gove is lying.

And in that case, the question would be why doesn't Gove know? And who has given him the inaccurate briefing? I presume the possibility that someone else has cocked up is not out of the question, and Gove's only mistake is in failing to check what his official has told him?
Peston, having at least admitted his error unlike the execrable Nick Watt, is now flailing about asking a raft of questions - some of which are reasonable - but having shown himself so lax he's not really got a platform on this one. Still, his interjection pleased those of an already fixed view on here. So that's nice in these difficult times.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:38 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:09 pm
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ion-swells

The latest opinion polls put you in a shrinking minority Lowbank Claret

YouGov's latest findings as of March 27th

"The latest wave of our coronavirus tracker shows a dramatic increase in Government approval, with even a majority of Labour voters thinking they are doing a good job

Over seven in ten (72%) now think they are doing well, up from 59% last week, with just two in ten (21%) now thinking they are doing badly, down from 31% last week. The biggest shift has been among those who voted for the Labour Party in December, with a majority (56%) of them now thinking the Government is handling this crisis well, compared to just 38% a week ago."
Rally round the flag. Nothing wrong with it. We're doing a lot better than the US.

Incidentally Ringo, did you only become opposed to Britain being a member of the European Union when it became the majority opinion in the country?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:41 pm

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:38 pm
Rally round the flag. Nothing wrong with it. We're doing a lot better than the US.

Incidentally Ringo, did you only become opposed to Britain being a member of the European Union when it became the majority opinion in the country?
This is a thread about the horrendous situation that faces us all right now.

I think bringing Brexit into it isn't really appropriate to be honest.

I'll pass if on that one for now if you dont mind. For another day maybe. Another thread certainly.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:42 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:36 pm
Peston, having at least admitted his error unlike the execrable Nick Watt, is now flailing about asking a raft of questions - some of which are reasonable - but having shown himself so lax he's not really got a platform on this one. Still, his interjection pleased those of an already fixed view on here. So that's nice in these difficult times.
thatdberight wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:18 pm
"So government source says - which is true - that there is a global shortage of the reagent. As it happens @CMO_England
said this a couple of weeks ago, as has head of CDC in US."
'But that still doesn't explain why Chemicals Industry Assoc thinks its members, could help find... '

Did you only quote the bit you liked, possibly to support your own fixed view?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:45 pm

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:42 pm
'But that still doesn't explain why Chemicals Industry Assoc thinks its members, could help find... '

Did you only quote the bit you liked, possibly to support your own fixed view?
The rest falls into the (as I said previously) reasonable questions Peston asked. For a man who was quoting his earlier comment with gay abandon because it fits your view of the world, you're in no position to talk.

Shall we synopsis Peston's latest position then, leaving out all extraneous information?

"(it is) true - that there is a global shortage of the reagent..."

Is that neutral enough for you?

If you want to move on to secondary issues, such as should we have had better visibility of this, are there mitigating actions which we could have taken earlier (along with nearly everyone else it seems since it's a global issue) - that's fine. But getting to a start point of, "I leapt on Peston's comment because it was something about 'Tories Bad!'" would be a necessity.
Last edited by thatdberight on Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:46 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:41 pm
This is a thread about the horrendous situation that faces us all right now.

I think bringing Brexit into it isn't really appropriate to be honest.

I'll pass if on that one for now if you dont mind. For another day maybe. Another thread certainly.
Sure, sure. The point I'm making is that something you passionately believe in wasn't always a majority opinion. Which seems to indicate that the majority of people believing something doesn't make it so.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:48 pm

Having already discounted the idea that Gove was mistaken, and that he was actually lying; surely, logically, it must be assumed that Peston was not making a mistake, he was lying?

After all, there must be some doubts about someone who claimed to have spoken to an entire Chemical Organisation, after hours, within 2 hours of the question being raised.

Personally I don't think he was lying. But he may have been talking to the night watchman and forgot to ask! :lol:

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:19 pm
It's nice to know that the government's harsher critics have totally discounted the idea of the government making mistakes.

I wasn't aware that politicians make a habit of telling lies which they know will be found out. Lies that they think they can get away with, maybe; but not lies that they know they will be caught at.
Like when Gove said at the weekend we'd hit our goal of 10,000 test per day but in truth hadn't even come close?

This government has continued to hold on to power by bending the truth, misrepresenting statistics ("new nurses, new hospitals...") and flat our lying. What makes you thing they would stop now when the sh1t has really hit the fan?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:52 pm

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:46 pm
Sure, sure. The point I'm making is that something you passionately believe in wasn't always a majority opinion. Which seems to indicate that the majority of people believing something doesn't make it so.
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?” John Maynard Keynes

Look, there's a time and place for Brexit chat. This is neither the time nor the thread. End of.
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thatdberight
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:53 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:48 pm
Having already discounted the idea that Gove was mistaken, and that he was actually lying; surely, logically, it must be assumed that Peston was not making a mistake, he was lying?

After all, there must be some doubts about someone who claimed to have spoken to an entire Chemical Organisation, after hours, within 2 hours of the question being raised.

Personally I don't think he was lying. But he may have been talking to the night watchman and forgot to ask! :lol:
Perhaps he was inadvertently misled by a CIA (not that one!) spokesman. Perhaps he mistakenly or otherwise overegged, "We stand ready to help" into something more substantial. Perhaps he's on to something and it will all come out. Perhaps it's all very very complicated both chemically and medically and not exactly the right question was asked of exactly the right person. Who knows?

What I do know is that if people think the media are unbiased holders of government to account, they are very much mistaken. They're trying to get ears, eyes and clicks. They'll do what it takes.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:03 am

thatdberight wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:53 pm
What I do know is that if people think the media are unbiased holders of government to account, they are very much mistaken. They're trying to get ears, eyes and clicks. They'll do what it takes.
Not all journalism is equal, I think you're are mistaking this:
headline1.jpg
headline1.jpg (93.65 KiB) Viewed 294 times
with this:
headline2.jpg
headline2.jpg (71.56 KiB) Viewed 294 times

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:04 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:03 am
Not all journalism is equal, I think you're are mistaking this:
headline1.jpg

with this:

headline2.jpg
I didn't say it was. Happy to clarify that if you were confused.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by atlantalad » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:05 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:49 pm
In press conference today when was asked about low number of tests being done Gove said there was now a shortage of chemicals needed to make new testing kits.

Peston:
"I've just talked to the Chemical Industries Association, which represents the UK's very substantial chemicals industry. It has contacted its members, and they've said there is no shortage of the relevant reagents. So the Association has now been in touch with Gove's office to find out what he means, because it is stumped.
The Association also points out there was an industry chat with a business minister today, who made no attempt to find out if there was a supply problem for the vital ingredients of Covid19 testing kits.
So this question of why there aren't enough tests for the virus is an even bigger mystery. Also, if it turns out there is a shortage these manufacturers are more than happy to increase their production. But they need to be asked, which has not happened."


This from Gove who said we'd hit the 10k per day testing target at the weekend but turned out to be a lie.
Government is doing everything it can to not look like it's completely dropped the ball on this one while other co
untries successfully reduce the impact of the virus through wide scale testing.
There are a few instant biology experts creeping out of the cupboard on this site. I belive the UK Gov are telling the truth. I know of a company that supplies the NHS, Europe, Asia, India, Brazil with the test kits. They have just established a supply line for reagents to manufacture 18 million kits. Do some simple research and find out what is involved in testing for COV-19. You will find that it is rather more complex than taking a swab sample from the nasal area and dipping into a magic test tube of a reagent to see if there is a colour change.

The Chemical Industies Association may have ample supply of 'reagents', the kind akin to what we may have used in school - alcohols, acids, bases, etc, but these are not the reagents required for COV-19 testing. The CoV-19 tests are PCR tests that rely on specific 'enzymes' ( synthesised proteins from 100's of particular sequenced amino acids). The reagents required are thus biochemicals. In the case of testing COV-19, it needs particular enzymes that, as I understand it, progressively break down sequences of the RNA of the virus to leave a small fraction of a particular protein that allows it to be uniquely identified as COV-19. I have read that the whole sequenced break down of RNA has many steps, involving a number of different enzymes and takes 6 hours per sample.

6 lab hours per sample! Think the test used by NHS supplier is world leading ( incidentally by a UK company 😀) and takes 2 hours per sample. So , simple maths, 10000 tests per day, is 20000 lab hours. There are 44 accredited bio labs in the UK, including some universities. Each lab would require to run neigh on 500 tests per day. My guess this is why there is not a drive to up the testing- there isn't the facilities to handle the higher capacity. Given the limited resources and laborious test time it is logical that the Gov test just front line NHS workers. There is talk of accrediting more university labs but this needs time and skill development not to mention the appropriate PCR testing platforms + more reagents.

Another point, what would be the benefit in conducting wider communal testing? If JoeLowCombat were to have the test and it showed up as negative wouldn't that just be an incentive for them to stop isolating and possible pick up the virus and transmit it through the community? Selective, focused PRC testing to identify key worker carriers is surely a much more efficient and effective use of resources.
Last edited by atlantalad on Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bfcboyo » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:06 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:50 pm
While I don't believe their final numbers they are perhaps the best country in terms of the ability to stop it in it's tracks with a totalitarian centralized government.
They can lock down entire cities, build hospitals in a week, track everyone at all times, retool entire production lines, mobilize millions of medics.
And the public is so used to this they neither complain and happily submit to the invasions of privacy and curtailment of freedoms.

So I'm not really surprised they were able to halt it, they smothered it very effectively at the price of freedom.
Still for the virus to spread quite freely across a vast nation and population like China the numbers don't add up. Or they were not being open about the seriousness of the virus with the rest of the world .

Things need to change and an open and honest account given to protect the future from further potential pandemic outbreaks.

China should be held to account with the whole world to answer to.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:07 am

thatdberight wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:45 pm
The rest falls into the (as I said previously) reasonable questions Peston asked. For a man who was quoting his earlier comment with gay abandon because it fits your view of the world, you're in no position to talk.

Shall we synopsis Peston's latest position then, leaving out all extraneous information?

"(it is) true - that there is a global shortage of the reagent..."

Is that neutral enough for you?
I hadn't read it to be honest (I don't use twitter, I was just linked to that post) . So I certainly wasn't intentionally trying to mislead people. Since he's a fairly high profile, trusted journalist, I assumed he had his story straight and thought it worth sharing.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:08 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:06 am
Still for the virus to spread quite freely across a vast nation and population like China the numbers don't add up. Or they were not being open about the seriousness of the virus with the rest of the world .

Things need to change and an open and honest account given to protect the future from further potential pandemic outbreaks.

China should be held to account with the whole world to answer to.
100%

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bfcboyo » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:08 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 pm
Like when Gove said at the weekend we'd hit our goal of 10,000 test per day but in truth hadn't even come close?

This government has continued to hold on to power by bending the truth, misrepresenting statistics ("new nurses, new hospitals...") and flat our lying. What makes you thing they would stop now when the sh1t has really hit the fan?
Carry on blaming our government for a global crisis no other government is dealing with any better as long as it gives you some comfort.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:16 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:08 am
Carry on blaming our government for a global crisis no other government is dealing with any better as long as it gives you some comfort.
No one is blaming the government for this pandemic. Although bizarrely, some people are blaming China. It's an open question whether they are handling it well though, and since we fortunately live in a democracy, everyone is entitled to their two pence.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:18 am

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:07 am
I hadn't read it to be honest (I don't use twitter, I was just linked to that post) . So I certainly wasn't intentionally trying to mislead people. Since he's a fairly high profile, trusted journalist, I assumed he had his story straight and thought it worth sharing.
I know. It's ridiculous having to try and keep up. I didn't intend to flame at you (and indeed my first post was only {as you said - part of} the follow up tweet by Peston himself). Even putting aside those on here with problems, it just seems that there are lots of posters on here who only post what suits a broader agenda and who, while probably having never done anything very complicated themselves, don't even for a minute think just how complex some of these chains of decision and information are. That wasn't really meant at you.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:18 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:08 am
Carry on blaming our government for a global crisis no other government is dealing with any better as long as it gives you some comfort.
I'd be happy to ascribe to this idea If we hadn't sat back and watched as it spread round the world, watched as Italy fell apart and only decided to do something once people were dying in their dozens weeks later.
Also several governments are dealing with this far better than we are South Korea and Germany to name two.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:22 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:06 am
Still for the virus to spread quite freely across a vast nation and population like China the numbers don't add up. Or they were not being open about the seriousness of the virus with the rest of the world .
It was my understanding that it didn't spread around China, they did a very good job of containing it Wuhan and surrounding areas with very draconian measures so that other parts of the country (eg: Beijing) were spared any major outbreaks

The worldwide problem has come from the cases that flew out of China directly from Wuhan.
Now China's biggest problem is now cases coming in from outside.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bfcboyo » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:23 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:18 am
I'd be happy to ascribe to this idea If we hadn't sat back and watched as it spread round the world, watched as Italy fell apart and only decided to do something once people were dying in their dozens weeks later.
Also several governments are dealing with this far better than we are South Korea and Germany to name two.
I know it is terrible isn't it. S Korea so open and honest such a progressive country making us look like a back water developing nation.

If you believe the stats that is. Just like China who didn't contain the virus and covered up the threat managed to keep the numbers at 80+k cases. Are we now more naive than our Russian comrades.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:26 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:23 am
I know it is terrible isn't it. S Korea so open and honest such a progressive country making us look like a back water developing nation.

If you believe the stats that is. Just like China who didn't contain the virus and covered up the threat managed to keep the numbers at 80+k cases. Are we now more naive than our Russian comrades.
Are you getting your Korea's mixed up mate..? :oops:

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:27 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:18 am
I'd be happy to ascribe to this idea If we hadn't sat back and watched as it spread round the world, watched as Italy fell apart and only decided to do something once people were dying in their dozens weeks later.
Also several governments are dealing with this far better than we are South Korea and Germany to name two.
It's hard to see through the fog of what's going on and if you've made a rational decision with a load of data and understanding about the different ways this was transmitted into the different countries, fair enough. There'll be plenty of time afterwards for everyone in all countries to try and learn the lessons. I don't think i've seen enough to know we're doing better or worse because there are so many variables.

Are we better than Italy only because of demographics and less inter-generational living together? Or because we did something? Are we worse than Germany because we failed to act? Or because Germany's initial outbreak was among younger people? Are we worse than South Korea because of their testing regime? Do societal norms in South Korea in terms of deference and obedience (which it might be argued have led to some of their corporate and political scandals that we haven't had) lend themselves more to their approach? Did the fact that they had such a large proportion of early cases in one religious community help? Since Scotland is showing next to zero infections among under-15s suggesting they can barely catch it let along be affected (yes - I heard the sad case from London today) should we have shut schools?

I don't know any of that and I'm not trying to trip you up. Something like this is mind-meltingly complicated.
Last edited by thatdberight on Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bfcboyo » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:27 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:22 am
It was my understanding that it didn't spread around China, they did a very good job of containing it Wuhan and surrounding areas with very draconian measures so that other parts of the country (eg: Beijing) were spared any major outbreaks

The worldwide problem has come from the cases that flew out of China directly from Wuhan.
Now China's biggest problem is now cases coming in from outside.

Why would they let it fly around the world but manage to be the biggest success story in containing on home soil. We all know about the interrogated doctor who flagged it up then passed away.

China need to be held to account to let all countries know that in future they must be open and honest putting lives before economy.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:31 am

Just an honest question regarding testing as I think I may be missing something:
Is testing alone going to be of any benefit in stopping the virus?

My thoughts are no it will not, if you have the test and it's negative that doesn't stop you getting it the near future does it?
If your tested positive then you will "most likely" have spread it already so in my mind the investigate who you have been in recent contact with and isolate them is what slows the spread down. Yet if we have now moved in to the isolate phase then only the ones still working, particularly NHS, and those in isolation who feel the symptoms should require testing and not any drive to try and test everyone, I think?

Testing for testing sake is not a deterrent, focus on testing people on the front line should be the priority not the whole population.
People hospitalized are a true number of those at most risk and as Inchy said, if they look like they've got it we treat them as they've got it.

I can see where the number of ventilators are a key number to monitor and to drive up for example but there seems to be a fixation on the number of tests conducted as a number that I simply don't understand why, hence my question/points.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bfcboyo » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:32 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:26 am
Are you getting your Korea's mixed up mate..? :oops:
Not at all the Russian comrades reference is towards our naivety in believing spoon fed media hype. Russia and the control over them . I see with the reference why you didn't get that but this is down to msg board typing against the spoken word.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:33 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:27 am
Why would they let it fly around the world but manage to be the biggest success story in containing on home soil. We all know about the interrogated doctor who flagged it up then passed away.

China need to be held to account to let all countries know that in future they must be open and honest putting lives before economy.
It left Wuhan in the bodies of business people before it was even properly diagnosed. Diseases spread, it's what they do.
I'm not saying they didn't cover up the extent of the outbreak or that their numbers are accurate. I'm saying when they decided to do something about it they were extremely effective, that's the power of a centralized authoritarian government who can change the direction of a county in days.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:36 am

KateR wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:31 am
Just an honest question regarding testing as I think I may be missing something:
Is testing alone going to be of any benefit in stopping the virus?

My thoughts are no it will not, if you have the test and it's negative that doesn't stop you getting it the near future does it?
If your tested positive then you will "most likely" have spread it already so in my mind the investigate who you have been in recent contact with and isolate them is what slows the spread down. Yet if we have now moved in to the isolate phase then only the ones still working, particularly NHS, and those in isolation who feel the symptoms should require testing and not any drive to try and test everyone, I think?

Testing for testing sake is not a deterrent, focus on testing people on the front line should be the priority not the whole population.
People hospitalized are a true number of those at most risk and as Inchy said, if they look like they've got it we treat them as they've got it.

I can see where the number of ventilators are a key number to monitor and to drive up for example but there seems to be a fixation on the number of tests conducted as a number that I simply don't understand why, hence my question/points.
Partially because testing let's you know where is 'hot' and that may/should determine what actions you have to take. The 'test test test' mantra is based on the assumption that you will then isolate and trace.
Partially because if you test early and frequently enough with a reliable test you'll catch people before they are spreading it.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:37 am

Bfcboyo wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:32 am
Not at all the Russian comrades reference is towards our naivety in believing spoon fed media hype. Russia and the control over them . I see with the reference why you didn't get that but this is down to msg board typing against the spoken word.
Some good backpedaling...

Tell me why I should not believe the numbers coming out of South Korea. The highest country in Asia on the Democracy Index who are being praised worldwide for it's testing and response?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:43 am

KateR wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:31 am
Just an honest question regarding testing as I think I may be missing something:
Is testing alone going to be of any benefit in stopping the virus?
Nothing alone will stop a virus, with the exception of a vaccine.

Former director of WHO will explain it better than I can.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ ... -of-lockd/
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Jakubclaret » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:44 am

KateR wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:31 am
Just an honest question regarding testing as I think I may be missing something:
Is testing alone going to be of any benefit in stopping the virus?

My thoughts are no it will not, if you have the test and it's negative that doesn't stop you getting it the near future does it?
If your tested positive then you will "most likely" have spread it already so in my mind the investigate who you have been in recent contact with and isolate them is what slows the spread down. Yet if we have now moved in to the isolate phase then only the ones still working, particularly NHS, and those in isolation who feel the symptoms should require testing and not any drive to try and test everyone, I think?

Testing for testing sake is not a deterrent, focus on testing people on the front line should be the priority not the whole population.
People hospitalized are a true number of those at most risk and as Inchy said, if they look like they've got it we treat them as they've got it.

I can see where the number of ventilators are a key number to monitor and to drive up for example but there seems to be a fixation on the number of tests conducted as a number that I simply don't understand why, hence my question/points.
The testing will help once confirmed but yes you are right by that stage it’s likely that you have already spread It, the testing once confirmed will almost definitely prevent you from infecting strangers, it’s fair/probable to presume anybody close are already positive as well, it benefits potential distant people who haven’t encountered the virus, as a rough summary.
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