10 more points

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:26 pm

... are all we need
Bournemouth away 1
West Brom home 1
Stoke home 1
West Ham home 3
Think thats 6 of them cant see where the other four will come from, might 35 be enough?

Slurpy · Post by **Slurpy** » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:29 pm

Chelsea is all I am looking at.

Wilsdenclaret · Post by **Wilsdenclaret** » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:30 pm

Stoke home 3
WBA home 1
Hull away 1
Sunderland away 1
Swansea away 1
Palace away 3
There you go, we only need 8 more anyhow

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:33 pm

Wilsdenclaret wrote:Stoke home 3
WBA home 1
Hull away 1
Sunderland away 1
Swansea away 1
Palace away 3
There you go, we only need 8 more anyhow

Four away games without losing GTFOH;)

Ooogeorgeorgeoghani · Post by **Ooogeorgeorgeoghani** » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:37 pm

With a bit of luck,which we dont.get in the prem, i think we will now.go undefeated til the end of time

Wilsdenclaret · Post by **Wilsdenclaret** » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:41 pm

yet to play any of the bottom 6 away so still think there's at least 6 points to be had

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:13 am

We need one win and one or two draws away, Preferably two draws.
So 5 points away from our remaining 8 games.
Hopefully against those below us especially the win.

That'll leave us 4 or 5 points at home from our remaining 6.
9/10 points should be enough.

CaptJohn · Post by **CaptJohn** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:23 am

The penultimate fixture away to Bournemouth is starting to gain in significance. Could become a "dog eat dog" scenario methinks.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:41 am

we'll need a minimum of 14 more wins

EarbyClaret · Post by **EarbyClaret** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:21 am

Without wishing to state the obvious then avoiding defeat in the 5 away games against the teams currently on 21 points or less reduces the number of points we'll need to survive and prevents them closing the gap on us.

Relatively little damage done when you look at yesterday's result in isolation but there was justified expectation beforehand that we could have got something from that.

If we don't pick up the points we need in the 4 aways coming up then we'll probably look back at yesterday as a significant missed opportunity.

jojomk1 · Post by **jojomk1** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:27 am

Looking at the remaining fixtures for the bottom 6 clubs then 6 points should be enough this season to stay up

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:03 am

It's not the overall league table that.concerns me it's more the form table. We seem to be unlucky that we are playing all of Hull Swansea and Sunderland just as they're results are picking up.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:52 am

I'd certainly expect us to beat Sunderland if our games against them are anything to go by.

And we'll need no more than 8 points to guarantee safety.

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:00 am

Steve1956 wrote:... are all we need
Bournemouth away 1
West Brom home 1
Stoke home 1
West Ham home 3
Think thats 6 of them cant see where the other four will come from, might 35 be enough?

West brom and stoke at home should be 6 given our form

Same.with west ham

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:00 pm

jojomk1 wrote:Looking at the remaining fixtures for the bottom 6 clubs then 6 points should be enough this season to stay up

Ha!ha!
Add another 4pts and you might be correct.
I can see the 3rd bottom team getting around 40, with the bottom 2 around that 35 mark.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:10 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Ha!ha!
Add another 4pts and you might be correct.
I can see the 3rd bottom team getting around 40, with the bottom 2 around that 35 mark.

Based on previous seasons and the points gained after 24 matches the bottom six currently have a lower points total than in previous years.

It would take a set of highly unlikely results for four teams to get to 40.

Blackrod · Post by **Blackrod** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:12 pm

Getting ahead of ourselves. The bottom teams are getting some good results and capable of scoring goals away from home ( something we have struggled with all season). We need 49 points but we've got Chelsea at home followed by lots of away games. The picture good be so good in 4 or 5 games time.

Blackrod · Post by **Blackrod** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:13 pm

40 points that is

Cheshireclaret · Post by **Cheshireclaret** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:19 pm

The thing about the Premier League is that the longer you sit and think about fixtures, the more you start to see how you can lose all of them - it's a very, very tough league.

All we can do is carry on as we are, keep the belief and based on past results we will get over the line. The weekend's results at The KC and Selhurst Park were eye-catching but then again earlier in the season, Sunderland got a great result at a then in-form Bournemouth which led to sections of the media declaring Anichebe as the saviour and the team having 'turned a corner'. Neither proved to be true.

Hull got the same results against Manchester United and Liverpool as we did and when we got those results, many said those won't be the results that keep us up, it's how we do against our relegation rivals etc etc that will keep us up and that remains true - so we should apply the same to Hull (I'm sure their fans are!)

We enter an important phase now with the Chelsea game and then up to 4 away games on the trot (Liverpool could of course be moved if we beat Lincoln) and we must continue the belief that has got us to where we are and stop over-analysing things we can do nothing about.

UTC!

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:23 pm

Not a hope in hell the bottom three will all reach forty points.

Not the remotest chance.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:24 pm

Blackrod wrote:40 points that is

I just wish that people would look at the points total after 24 matches in previous seasons and then look at the total that the team finishing in 18th got.

40 pts will not be required this season!

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:50 pm

The 3rd bottom team currently has 4 points less than a point per game, at the end of the season that equates to 34 points, with our goal difference this is probably the minimum we need.

MT03ALG · Post by **MT03ALG** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:38 pm

21 points out of 42 (9 from 6 home games, 12 from 8 away games)would give us a nice round total of 50 points !

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:04 pm

We could lose our next 6 games and still stay up.
We won't win our next 6 games is a certainty.

However, if we avoid defeat against Hull, Swansea, Sunderland and Boro'
then we'll probably stay up.
Even if we lost two of those we'd still be in with a good chance.
If we could win one of those and draw another we'd be in with a very good chance.
If we could win two of those we'd almost be certain of staying up.

Ii think 37 points might just be enough especially as our goal difference
is much better than many of the teams below us and that's worth a point.

So two wins and two draws.
Is that achievable?
One would have to believe it is.

However it doesn't, at present, stop many (me included) from envisaging a
potential disaster from occurring where we get a few more injuries and
win only one and draw two or three and end up in the bottom three.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:56 pm

I did mention a couple of weeks back that simply avoiding defeat at the likes of Watford, Hull, S'land, Boro, Swansea and B'mouth is all that matters as it's not just about the point we gain, but the extra 2 they can't then take. Then yesterday we promptly fall at the first of those hurdles! At least it's not one of the most important games in that respect. But the rest really ARE relegation contenders and thus our direct rivals. Just don't lose!

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:07 am

ElectroClaret wrote:Not a hope in hell the bottom three will all reach forty points.

Not the remotest chance.

Totally correct, but that's not relevant to whether we stay up though is it?
Theoretically the 2 bottom clubs clubs could fail to even match our current 29 points, but that won't help us if the third from bottom team get 39, and we go down on goal difference.
Statistics and previous history suggest that if we get 38 points we'll have a very good chance of avoiding the drop but it wouldn't guarantee it.
Edit: We currently have a significantly better goal difference to most of our rivals, (but not all), and if we were to only pick up another 8 or 9 points whilst those below start winning and catch us up, then the goal difference changes quite quickly.

KeighleyClaret · Post by **KeighleyClaret** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:24 am

Its important to keep the faith even if the results in the next 5 games don't work out for us. This was always going to be a very tough stretch with 4 away and Chelsea at home, and the 'easy' away games are not looking so easy now.
The important thing is to remain confident and back the team, to avoid the boys suffering the loss of confidence that is currently affecting teams like Bournemouth and Leicester.
For what its worth I'm still confident we will stay up, I reckon we will be safe before the Bournemouth game.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:12 pm

In the last 10 seasons the team finishing 3rd from bottom got the following:

15/16 - 37
14/15 - 35
13/14 - 33
12/13 - 36
11/12 - 36
10/11 - 39
09/10 - 30
08/09 - 34
07/08 - 36
06/07 - 38

Looking at the bottom six It's worth pointing out that In 06/07 after 24 matches 3rd from bottom had 20 points, but the team in 15th had 29, 8 more points than Leicester in the same position.

In 10/11 Wigan (3rd bottom) had 22 points. Fulham in 15th had 26 points.

In 15/16 Newcastle had 21 points, but Bournemouth in 15th had 28 points.

The points for the bottom six are lower than before which suggests that the team finishing 3rd bottom will not get anywhere near 40 points due to teams playing each other, thus dropping points.

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