Are we safe

Claretforever · Post by **Claretforever** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:11 am

Goalposts wrote:Season: Points won by team that finished in 17th in the prem lge and stayed up

1995/96: 38
1996/97: 41
1997/98: 40
1998/99: 41
1999/00: 36
2000/01: 42
2001/02: 40
2002/03: 44
2003/04: 39
2004/05: 34
2005/06: 38
2006/07: 38
2007/08: 36
2008/09: 35
2009/10: 35
2010/11: 40
2011/12: 37
2012/13: 39
2013/14: 36
2014-15: 38
2015-16: 39
AVERAGE: 38.4

Would a better list not be the points of those who finished 18th, as we'd only need one point more than those?

Quicknick · Post by **Quicknick** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:22 pm

jurek wrote:We're not safe on 35 points.
We need another 3 or 4 to be safe, me thinks.
Looking at their remaining fixtures then I think both Hull and Swansea are capable of getting another 3 wins - possibly more.
If they do then they'll be both on 36/37 points. Possibly more if they manage more than 3 wins.

Looking at our remaining fixtures then I'd like to believe we can get those 3 or 4 points.

Out goal difference is worth another point to us so we may get there with just another 3 points.

But i think we'll need 38 or 39 points to be safe.

We'll crack 40 at least.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:24 pm

Woodleyclaret · Post by **Woodleyclaret** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:14 pm

Reading showed class with their congratulations posters the second time we went up
I for one want them promoted and it's got nothing to do with us living 4 miles from the Madstad.I would love them to beat Dirty Leeds at Wembley.
We also want Brighton up.Another good trip for us.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:18 pm

I can't see us having another shot on target all season.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:39 pm

1 more win will do it.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:52 pm

I'm with Claretforever- post 201.
You need to look at position 18 and beat that for survival. Eg in 2009/10, 17th was WHU with 35 but we finished 18th with 30 so 31 was enough to survive, 35 not necessarily required.
Another factor now is the increased number of "big teams" at the top who eat up a lot of points and leave less points for teams below. With Man City being big spenders since 2008/9 (added to Chelsea, Manu, Arsenal etc) best to look at data since then.
The average 18th position points tally since then has been 35; so 36 on average would have kept a team up.
37/8 will probably be enough this season (especially with 6 strong teams at the top). Obviously though, the more we get, the more we can sleep easy + there's the matter of those extra £2 millions for each extra place up the league.

Cooperclaret · Post by **Cooperclaret** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:53 pm

Score at Hull is helping !

JohnDearyMe · Post by **JohnDearyMe** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:19 pm

Nope 4 more points should do it i think

StuffyClaret · Post by **StuffyClaret** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:53 pm

Seven points and a +17 goal difference. I think tonight's the night I finally believe it

box_of_frogs · Post by **box_of_frogs** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:59 pm

Still not safe. Sunderland and Boro basically down, but I'm still concerned about that 3rd spot.

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:05 pm

Course wer safe

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:09 pm

With seven to play this is how the table looked seven games ago:

We had a nine point gap (now seven). Despite our poor run of late we still managed to pick up almost a point per game.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:59 am

Interesting to see that table Spijed. Since then, points picked up have been
Leicester 15
Palace 12
Saints 10
Hull 10
B'mouth 9
Swans 7
Clarets 6
Boro 2
WHU 2
Sunland 1
(Note: Boro, Sun'land & Palace have only played 6 rather than 7)
I had my money, a while back, on Sunderland, Boro, Palace. It looks a lot better now for Palace but they have a tough run in so could yet be. My bookie, though,has Sunderland, Boro, Swans as the 3 favourites (Hull just a bit higher).
There'll be a few ups & downs before we get to that last couple of weeks- very interesting.
A Clarets win this weekend would allow us to watch it all unfold without any nagging worries.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:09 am

Other teams such as Boro and Swansea are certainly helping us out, but I doubt 35 points will be enough. A win on Saturday and I think that'll just about do it.

tim_noone · Post by **tim_noone** » Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:16 am

Do bears sh!t in the woods? Does dolly parton sleep on her back.....

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:13 pm

FactualFrank wrote:Other teams such as Boro and Swansea are certainly helping us out, but I doubt 35 points will be enough. A win on Saturday and I think that'll just about do it.

But I thought you didn't see another win full stop...

Which reminds me.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:00 pm

We'll walk it now.

Relax. Sunlounger city.
We're golden.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:04 pm

Congratulations to every one concerned with Burnley FC safe as a brick sh1thouse

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:07 pm

Clearly we're not mathematically safe but I'd be surprised if we even need another point now. Time for a G&T.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:09 pm

Rileybobs wrote:Clearly we're not mathematically safe but I'd be surprised if we even need another point now. Time for a G&T.

How conservative of you

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:11 pm

Steve1956 wrote:How conservative of you

I might wash it down with a tin of Skol.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:15 pm

Rileybobs wrote:Clearly we're not mathematically safe but I'd be surprised if we even need another point now. Time for a G&T.

Mathematically safe after Crystal Palace - has been my prediction (on here) for a few weeks.

Played 32, 36 points. Who expected this in August?

UTC

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:16 pm

I think once you are clear by more points than you have games remaining, you have to feel more confident.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:17 pm

FactualFrank wrote:I think once you are clear by more points than you have games remaining, you have to feel more confident.

Have you finally relaxed FF?

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:24 pm

Good grief, Frank, you're practically kicking your heels up!!!!

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:33 pm

ElectroClaret wrote:Good grief, Frank, you're practically kicking your heels up!!!!

I think even the most braincell-deprived posters knew I was being negative in a similar vein to the poster who expects the worst during the match threads (forget his username). But it's working fine so I'll keep at it

jedi_master · Post by **jedi_master** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:37 pm

Yes we are.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:57 pm

We could very well stay up even if we were to lose all our remaining games. Looking like over 40 points I reckon though which would be amazing

Frenchclaret · Post by **Frenchclaret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:29 pm

We'll get 'em in singles - always a good cautious approach in cricket!

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:34 pm

Bournemouth currently losing 1-2 at home to Chelsea

PutTheWheelieBinsOut · Post by **PutTheWheelieBinsOut** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:42 pm

I think we are safe. But we need to keep going, if we finish 12th like we are currently, its worth £10 million more than 17th. 10 million more for next years transfer kitty id take that.

Guich · Post by **Guich** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:16 pm

Absolutely Putthe...

The chances of us going down are now, statistically, a shade over 1 per cent.

And we have every chance of finishing 12th or higher. Amazing.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:28 pm

We have to continue picking up points. Hull and Swansea both have to play Watford and Stoke in their next two games. Hull have by far the easiest run in. Too much complacency on this thread.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:33 pm

Relax, Dermot. You're on edge, man.
Have a cocktail.
Book a holiday.
Get a massage.

We're perfectly safe, dude.

ClaretRock · Post by **ClaretRock** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:36 pm

I agree with those saying 3 more points should do it I recon we can get at least another 6

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:36 pm

dermotdermot wrote:We have to continue picking up points. Hull and Swansea both have to play Watford and Stoke in their next two games. Hull have by far the easiest run in. Too much complacency on this thread.

Hull are pretty bonk away from home though. Not won away since last August. They also have Spurs final game of the season, which leaves Waford and Sunderland as winnable games.

But I agree that we still aren't safe and need to pick up 2-3 more points. But we do have a bit of breathing space.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:41 pm

Swansea need to GAIN 9 pts on us in 6 games.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:41 pm

dermotdermot wrote:We have to continue picking up points. Hull and Swansea both have to play Watford and Stoke in their next two games. Hull have by far the easiest run in. Too much complacency on this thread.

Eight points with six to play is an enormous gap. No club have ever come close to going down with those points in the bag with so few to play.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:44 pm

We're 9 points clear, our goal difference is considerably better than Swansea's.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:45 pm

Yep whilst we might still need 1 or 2 points, after the Stoke game the pressure lifted and at the top level of sport the difference between being desperate for points and needing the odd result is crucial

The Stoke win was absolutely vital given the run we were on but now we'll coast home

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:47 pm

Er, (still) no!!!

Right_winger · Post by **Right_winger** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:48 pm

Yes we are safe.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:59 pm

Like my previous post #213 I thought I'd do another comparison.

With six to play this is how the table looked six games ago:

We had a nine point gap (now eight). We are safe because there are not enough teams below us to go on good enough runs to overtake us.

We've already got enough points!

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:10 pm

Assuming neither Hull and Swansea suddenly get another 3 wins plus the odd draw
from their remaining games and we don't go into free fall then yes we're safe or as safe as we can be at this stage.

Having said that they both play Watford and Stoke in their next two games.
If per chance they won those and we lost our next two to Everton and MAn U then I don't think
many would be saying we are safe.
We've got a tricky run in and have to be grateful we managed to get that win against Stoke.

We might still need 3 or 4 points before we can claim we are safe.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:13 pm

jurek wrote:Assuming neither Hull and Swansea suddenly get another 3 wins plus the odd draw
from their remaining games and we don't go into free fall then yes we're safe or as safe as we can be at this stage.

Having said that they both play Watford and Stoke in their next two games.
If per chance they won those and we lost our next two to Everton and MAn U then I don't think
many would be saying we are safe.
We've got a tricky run in and have to be grateful we managed to get that win against Stoke.

We might still need 3 or 4 points before we can claim we are safe.

I THINK he's saying "no"! (And of course he's right.) Stop the thread now and leave it to me. I'll tell you when!

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:17 pm

Our run-in is no trickier than anyone else's.

Swansea 1 point in five matches. Hull yet to win away under Silva.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:19 pm

Jurek, Dark Cloud.
Chill. We're golden.

Stretch out on your sofa.
Pour a Scottish malt.
Think fond memories of a former lover.
Soak up the sun tomorrow.

There isn't the slightest chance of us going down now.
Relax, guys.

jlup1980 · Post by **jlup1980** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:19 pm

I've been saying 36 points should be the first target all season. Anything beyond this is a bonus and if we hit 40 it really will have been a very successful campaign.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:27 pm

Spijed wrote:Our run-in is no trickier than anyone else's.

That's true. I've looked at the Fixture Difficulty and most of the clubs below us have equal fixtures between now and the end of he season. Even Palace's averages out on par with us, which is probably due to the fact that they have us and Hull at their place. They'll expect to win both.