Relegated - Hull, Middlesbrough, Sunderland

[aggi]

Just reading this in the Guardian getting fans' (including CT) view of the season. What surprised me was that pretty much every fan (apart from those three teams) predicted that Hull, Middlesbrough and Sunderland were going down. I wouldn't have thought it was that clear cut at this stage with there still only being a few points in it

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ester-city" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Sidney1st]

It isn't as clear cut, but looking at things like results when the 3 mentioned teams have played would suggest they're in real danger.

We've struggled away from home, but other results have gone our way meaning we've still got a half decent cushion between us and 17th.

[claretdom]

Boro & Sunderland are gone and I think it is a fair assumption that if a team wins 6 out of 29 they are very unlikely to win 4 out of the last 9.

[CleggHall]

I think CT was the only contributor to not relegate Sunderland! Loyalty to his mackems mate, even their own supporter condemned them.

[KateR]

not gone yet but favorites of most to be the 3 gone, I suspect one of them will escape personally, taking in to account all the matches yet to be played, so many games gone this season where teams have managed something

[FCBurnley]

We certainly need a few more points to survive

[Goddy]

Whilst there's still quite a few games where the bottom few play each other, I can't help but think that the Palace v Hull game (second to last game) might well be critical to deciding who (out of those two) go down, as well as being crucial to us being confirmed as staying up.

I just have a feeling that it could be S'land (sadly), Boro (hopefully) and Palace (hopefully, too) that go down........

[FactualFrank]

Look at Hull's fixtures though. Their home form under their new manager I'm sure has been pretty decent.

Home to West Ham, Boro, Watford, Sunderland still to come.

[aggi]

The only game Hull haven't won at home since Silva came in was us. Two cup wins, three league wins and a draw against us.

[jojomk1]

Also think Hull will stay up with home form
Palace or Swansea down with us just above them

[nil_desperandum]

If Hull stay up then we could well be in trouble. Really can't see us finishing up above any other 3 teams than those mentioned in OP.
(Obviously hope to be proved massively wrong, and it would really only take us to win one away game and we'd probably be fine. Not losing at Boro would be massive for both clubs)

[Spijed]

Didn't realise Hull, Boro & Sunderland were down in the relegation spots. As a Burnley supporter I haven't had much reason to look at that end of the table this season!

[ClaretTony]

I think CT was the only contributor to not relegate Sunderland! Loyalty to his mackems mate, even their own supporter condemned them.

Not the case, I did include Sunderland, but they've printed Swansea.

[Spijed]

If Hull stay up then we could well be in trouble. Really can't see us finishing up above any other 3 teams than those mentioned in OP.
(Obviously hope to be proved massively wrong, and it would really only take us to win one away game and we'd probably be fine. Not losing at Boro would be massive for both clubs)

The end of the world is nigh!

[jlup1980]

When you look at the run in Crystal Palace have I think they could be the ones who replace Hull or Boro if they survive. Surely Sunderland are down!

[ElectroClaret]

Really can't see us finishing up above any other 3 teams than those mentioned in OP.

Why not?

[nil_desperandum]

Why not?

It's just my opinion based on how many points I think we'll get, and how many I think the others will get based on fixtures, form etc.
Obviously if we win on Saturday, or get an away win, then things will look different, but at present I can't see us getting more than 38 points and I just feel that all the others (bar the 3) will get more.

[Spijed]

It's just my opinion based on how many points I think we'll get, and how many I think the others will get based on fixtures, form etc.
Obviously if we win on Saturday, or get an away win, then things will look different, but at present I can't see us getting more than 38 points and I just feel that all the others (bar the 3) will get more.

Why is our home form going to go into decline when there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest it will?

[nil_desperandum]

Why is our home form going to go into decline when there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest it will?

It's a very reasonable question.
My concerns are based on the fact that - mainly due to the way fixtures have fallen - we haven't won at home since January, so we have lost momentum.
After an excellent home draw against Chelsea we turned in an abysmal display against Lincoln, and haven't as yet had the opportunity to see if we can get back on track. That's why Saturday is important.
My other concern is that our home wins have been very hard fought, and in some cases slightly fortuitous, but against teams - for the most part in the bottom half of the table. They all look really tough from now on, and with the margins so fine, I doubt we will grind out the same percentage of wins.

[evensteadiereddie]

We don't need to, the others need to improve - significantly.

[nil_desperandum]

We don't need to, the others need to improve - significantly.

But if you look at recent results, you will notice that Leicester, Swansea, Palace, Bournemouth and Hull all have.
Swansea and Hull looked dead and buried until they changed managers, and after their visit to Turf Moor most of us had Leicester in the bottom 3.

[Dark Cloud]

Nil_desperandum makes some very good points I think. Because of the way the fixtures have fallen we have had very little action at the Turf and have lost momentum. We are faced with trying to restore that momentum with a game against the team second in the table and relatively on fire. A draw on Saturday would be a good result tbh and then onto those proverbial stonewallers known as Stoke. Maybe another draw. Those 2 extremely difficult games could define our fate as if we get nowt we're off to Boro toting the worst away record since the invention of away records. NOT losing at Boro is absolutely vital, just as it was at S'land, since a win for them could restore the hope they have basically lost and spark an unlikely revival. It's happened before. Leicester 2 years ago for example and S'land have basically turned it into an art form year on year. I for one am very nervous and looking over my shoulder.

[Saxoman]

Hull will escape potentially.. Anything can still happen..

[Spijed]

But if you look at recent results, you will notice that Leicester, Swansea, Palace, Bournemouth and Hull all have.
Swansea and Hull looked dead and buried until they changed managers, and after their visit to Turf Moor most of us had Leicester in the bottom 3.

You mean Hull's home form. Their away form is worse than ours.

[nil_desperandum]

You mean Hull's home form. Their away form is worse than ours.

Fair point, but looking at their home fixtures and form they've a decent chance of 4 wins. Anything then away from home, would see them in with a decent chance on the last day of the season. (Spurs at home!)
In their last 6 home games they have 4 wins and 2 draws, (+ a home win against Man U in the Cup)

[Spijed]

It's a very reasonable question.
My concerns are based on the fact that - mainly due to the way fixtures have fallen - we haven't won at home since January, so we have lost momentum.
After an excellent home draw against Chelsea we turned in an abysmal display against Lincoln, and haven't as yet had the opportunity to see if we can get back on track. That's why Saturday is important.
My other concern is that our home wins have been very hard fought, and in some cases slightly fortuitous, but against teams - for the most part in the bottom half of the table. They all look really tough from now on, and with the margins so fine, I doubt we will grind out the same percentage of wins.

Are Stoke, West Brom or West Ham going to be any tougher than Bournemouth, Southampton or Watford (three so-called mid-table sides)

Funny how our wins have been lucky, yet the other teams around us have beaten other teams with ease.

I'm surprised it's taken this long into the season for someone to say we aren't that good at home, just lucky. You don't have a record like ours unless you are a very good side at home, which we are. Far better than most in the PL.

[nil_desperandum]

Funny how our wins have been lucky, yet the other teams around us have beaten other teams with ease.

I'm surprised it's taken this long into the season for someone to say we aren't that good at home, just lucky. You don't have a record like ours unless you are a very good side at home, which we are. Far better than most in the PL.

Who said that, and on what thread.? I certainly haven't. I said that the margins were very small, and arguably we have had a bit of luck - (e.g. Vokes' handball against Leicester, a couple of goalkeeping errors etc.) - but nowhere did I say we haven't played well.
I believe we have excelled at home.
Could / should have had an extra point against both Arsenal and City, had one or 2 decisions go against us, but also (arguably) got a couple of slightly fortuitous wins, threw away 2 points against Hull.
My point, which I think others accept is: we've done fantastically well at home, but we've had to play consistently well. We haven't played at home for a long time, and last time we did - we were awful. We now have to start again, and as the poster above pointed out, we play the 2nd best team in the country who are in good form, and then a team who home or away can be relied upon to be tough, uncompromising and v hard to beat.
Less than one point from those 2 games - on top of the Lincoln shambles, and we may not have quite the same momentum and confidence at Turf Moor as we had. (The Leicester game seems an age ago now).

[bodge]

I can't believe after 4 and a half years of this manager at the helm you are effectively questioning the mentality of a Sean Dyche side to bounce back.

You may recall there were some regulars not playing against Lincoln, do you think the side that takes the pitch will be worried about how they performed against Lincoln or do you think they will be buoyed by a getting a point against a rampant Chelsea ?

I know we shouldn't count chickens but hell fire man that's a pretty doom laden scenario you paint there.

[Paul Waine]

Just reading this in the Guardian getting fans' (including CT) view of the season. What surprised me was that pretty much every fan (apart from those three teams) predicted that Hull, Middlesbrough and Sunderland were going down. I wouldn't have thought it was that clear cut at this stage with there still only being a few points in it

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ester-city" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Does anyone think this is anti-north east bias in the "north London" media?

Sorry, wrong thread.

UTC

[Paul Waine]

It's a very reasonable question.
My concerns are based on the fact that - mainly due to the way fixtures have fallen - we haven't won at home since January, so we have lost momentum.
After an excellent home draw against Chelsea we turned in an abysmal display against Lincoln, and haven't as yet had the opportunity to see if we can get back on track. That's why Saturday is important.
My other concern is that our home wins have been very hard fought, and in some cases slightly fortuitous, but against teams - for the most part in the bottom half of the table. They all look really tough from now on, and with the margins so fine, I doubt we will grind out the same percentage of wins.

Hi nil_d, I think you are forgetting that we now have England's best CB playing for the Clarets.

Agree, some of the home victories have been "hard fought" and "slim margins" - but we can say the same of some of the defeats away from home.

I've no doubt Burnley will be playing Premier League again next season. My forecast is we will be mathematically safe from relegation after the Crystal Palace game (as posted a couple of weeks ago).

[nil_desperandum]

I can't believe after 4 and a half years of this manager at the helm you are effectively questioning the mentality of a Sean Dyche side to bounce back.

I know we shouldn't count chickens but hell fire man that's a pretty doom laden scenario you paint there.

It's not doom laden at all. I'm just saying that we can't assume that we will maintain our current average of points gained at home.
If there are 2 teams that no one enjoys playing at at home it's Stoke and WBA, and whilst I'm sure we'll play well, it will be a bit of an upset if we get all 3 points against either Spurs or Man U. WHU is definitely winnable, but I hope we won't need any points by then.

[Tall Paul]

There's no such thing as momentum in relation to football results.

[nil_desperandum]

There's no such thing as momentum in relation to football results.

Sorry but I totally disagree. Why do teams go on long runs without a win, and then suddenly win one, stop the rot and then win another.?
Just look at Leicester. Couldn't win away, get on a bit of run after Ranieri goes and suddenly start winning away again.
Look at the momentum that Hull have built up in their home games since Silva took over. (7 undefeated and 5 wins)
Look at us last season. Once we got to about 12 games undefeated we gained a momentum that carried us over the finishing line - even when we performed badly, (as we did in several games).
Managers talk all the time about momentum, don't they?

[Spijed]

Sorry but I totally disagree. Why do teams go on long runs without a win, and then suddenly win one, stop the rot and then win another.?
Just look at Leicester. Couldn't win away, get on a bit of run after Ranieri goes and suddenly start winning away again.
Look at the momentum that Hull have built up in their home games since Silva took over. (7 undefeated and 5 wins)
Look at us last season. Once we got to about 12 games undefeated we gained a momentum that carried us over the finishing line - even when we performed badly, (as we did in several games).
Managers talk all the time about momentum, don't they?

We've had no momentum at all this season. For example, we beat Palace 3-2 then lost to West Brom 4-0. We narrowly lost 2-1 to Man City at home before losing to Stoke away 2-0.

However, that didn't stop us beating Bournemouth in the next match before playing West Ham away.....

So where is the momentum in all that lot?

Yet, it hasn't stopped us picking up points, as and when required.

[cutsy123]

We will beat some of these at home in the comin weeks so no dramas

[Tall Paul]

Sorry but I totally disagree. Why do teams go on long runs without a win, and then suddenly win one, stop the rot and then win another.?
Just look at Leicester. Couldn't win away, get on a bit of run after Ranieri goes and suddenly start winning away again.
Look at the momentum that Hull have built up in their home games since Silva took over. (7 undefeated and 5 wins)
Look at us last season. Once we got to about 12 games undefeated we gained a momentum that carried us over the finishing line - even when we performed badly, (as we did in several games).
Managers talk all the time about momentum, don't they?

Momentum in football is something that pundits/fans etc use to explain things that have happened, but is useless for predicting what will happen.

ie - it can't be measured or proven scientifically and therefore, for all intents and purposes, doesn't exist.

If Hull have all this positive momentum, how come it stops when they go away from home? How come Burnley, with one away point all season (and presumably zero momentum) stopped their momentum and prevented them from winning?

Last season we didn't "gain momentum" in the second half of the season. SD found his best team and we were better than everyone else. If we had all that momentum, what happened to it in the summer for us to lose our first game of this season?

[nil_desperandum]

If Hull have all this positive momentum, how come it stops when they go away from home? How come Burnley, with one away point all season (and presumably zero momentum) stopped their momentum and prevented them from winning?

Last season we didn't "gain momentum" in the second half of the season. SD found his best team and we were better than everyone else. If we had all that momentum, what happened to it in the summer for us to lose our first game of this season?

Well you could argue that momentum was lost over the summer, or that we moved up a division to play superior opposition, or several other points on that day actually.
We have had very positive momentum when playing at home, and Hull seem to have gained some. By this I am suggesting that winning at home has become quite habitual and when the team run out at Turf Moor, there is a general expectation that we will do well. Conversely very few people believe that when we go a goal behind away that we will be able to turn it round, and even if we take the lead, we look very nervous.
After a truly dreadful run, Accy Stanley are now hoping they have the momentum to sneak into the play-offs. (4 points from 15 games between mid-October and Feb 4th and now 11 unbeaten).