Grand National
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Grand National
first of all...thank god cheltenham is over...my worst yet by some way.
the grand national however has some really strong pointers and just the 1 race gives me a chance to do the race properly...unlike cheltenham
where the work load is just silly.
it always amuses me when people constantly harp on about the grand national being a lottery....it isnt...class horse win this race every year
and since the fences were lowered it suits speedier types who have the ability to stay prominent for over 4 miles.
first of all some pointers and opinions.
7 year olds have not won since 1940....get this...the bookies had a 7 year old as fav until it was withdrawn.
12 year olds running in 3m 5 plus chases in class 2 or higher since 1998 have a record of 1/243
graded handicap chase winners since beginning of 2014...10 plus runners...all had a maximum of 17 chase runs.
last 28 winners of national....total runs that season
1 had 2 runs....1 had 3 runs....5 had 4 runs....6 had 5 runs....10 had 6 runs....2 had 7 runs...1 had 8 runs.....1 had 9 runs.
total chase starts career to date
1 had 9 runs....3 had 10...1 had 11...3 had 12...2 had 13...5 had 14...1 had 16...1 had 17...2 had 23...2 had 24...1 had 25...1 had 27...1 had 28
1 had 37....1 had 41......so 21 from 26 had 24 chase starts or fewer with lowest being 9.
all of last 21 winners ran at least once since new years day in same year....but 20/21 ran at least twice...only 2 ran 4 times and that was the most runs.
last 26 winners all last ran between 16 and 58 days ago...
best profile for national
male horse aged 8 to 11 year old
last ran within 58 days
starting under 40/1
under 15 chase starts
last ran in a class 2 or higher grade
3 or more runs in season
this formula has had 9 of the last 12 winners from only 56 bets....
more considerations
generally the ground at aintree is pretty quick so mudlarks tend to struggle
your horse needs to have won a 3 mile plus chase valued at 17 grand or more ( or ran exceptionally well as last years winner had )
the horse needs to be a prominent racer...must be able to lay up handy.
cheltenham winners in same year have a very poor record.
18 from last 20 winners finished in first 8 last time out.
horses with any sort of headgear have lost the last 7 nationals despite supplying around 40 percent of field.
UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD YOU TAKE SP.....the bookies fleece punters year after year on grand national day.
my ante post bets with SKYBET ( they are top price on all 3 selections...paying each way 12345....odds guaranteed...none runner no bet ) are
THE YOUNG MASTER 20/1
VICENTE 25/1
PERFECT CANDIDATE 50/1
all backed each way...these prices are still available but will be shorter on the day.....once I have watched some Aintree racing and know exact ground I may or may not add to these bets....
the grand national however has some really strong pointers and just the 1 race gives me a chance to do the race properly...unlike cheltenham
where the work load is just silly.
it always amuses me when people constantly harp on about the grand national being a lottery....it isnt...class horse win this race every year
and since the fences were lowered it suits speedier types who have the ability to stay prominent for over 4 miles.
first of all some pointers and opinions.
7 year olds have not won since 1940....get this...the bookies had a 7 year old as fav until it was withdrawn.
12 year olds running in 3m 5 plus chases in class 2 or higher since 1998 have a record of 1/243
graded handicap chase winners since beginning of 2014...10 plus runners...all had a maximum of 17 chase runs.
last 28 winners of national....total runs that season
1 had 2 runs....1 had 3 runs....5 had 4 runs....6 had 5 runs....10 had 6 runs....2 had 7 runs...1 had 8 runs.....1 had 9 runs.
total chase starts career to date
1 had 9 runs....3 had 10...1 had 11...3 had 12...2 had 13...5 had 14...1 had 16...1 had 17...2 had 23...2 had 24...1 had 25...1 had 27...1 had 28
1 had 37....1 had 41......so 21 from 26 had 24 chase starts or fewer with lowest being 9.
all of last 21 winners ran at least once since new years day in same year....but 20/21 ran at least twice...only 2 ran 4 times and that was the most runs.
last 26 winners all last ran between 16 and 58 days ago...
best profile for national
male horse aged 8 to 11 year old
last ran within 58 days
starting under 40/1
under 15 chase starts
last ran in a class 2 or higher grade
3 or more runs in season
this formula has had 9 of the last 12 winners from only 56 bets....
more considerations
generally the ground at aintree is pretty quick so mudlarks tend to struggle
your horse needs to have won a 3 mile plus chase valued at 17 grand or more ( or ran exceptionally well as last years winner had )
the horse needs to be a prominent racer...must be able to lay up handy.
cheltenham winners in same year have a very poor record.
18 from last 20 winners finished in first 8 last time out.
horses with any sort of headgear have lost the last 7 nationals despite supplying around 40 percent of field.
UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD YOU TAKE SP.....the bookies fleece punters year after year on grand national day.
my ante post bets with SKYBET ( they are top price on all 3 selections...paying each way 12345....odds guaranteed...none runner no bet ) are
THE YOUNG MASTER 20/1
VICENTE 25/1
PERFECT CANDIDATE 50/1
all backed each way...these prices are still available but will be shorter on the day.....once I have watched some Aintree racing and know exact ground I may or may not add to these bets....
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Re: Grand National
What's your thoughts on "one for Arthur"?
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Re: Grand National
one for arthur hasnt had enough runs this year with only 1 run and needs rain newcastle...a horse I like but wrong conditions.
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Re: Grand National
Thanks happy you seem to have a much better idea than most when it comes to the horses
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Re: Grand National
I've got a pin and a race card. Game on!
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Re: Grand National
I wish I had used the pin method at cheltenham....even if I had used the pin I probably would have stabbed myself the way that week went.
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Re: Grand National
A lot of time went into that post... will place my £20 on those 3 and one of my own,i cant pick my nose most of the time!
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Re: Grand National
Thanks Happy!
£2.50 each way on each of them!
Same odds as listed still with SkyBet
£2.50 each way on each of them!
Same odds as listed still with SkyBet
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Re: Grand National
tomorrow
2 00...fav here is man from mars...sire is 0 from 45 with his offspring...currently 2.45 on betfair....will be looking to either lay or oppose with a bet.
3 05...LASER LIGHT is a tricky ride and Daryl Jacob knows this horse well and is the job jockey for king....he has an exceptional record when riding for him......this horse is short but should travel all over this lot and trade very short in running even if he dogs it....bet at 1.81...lay in running around 1.2 to protect stake.
5 55 INDIAN CHIEF is currently 18 on betfair...this is an ex o brien horse once rated 110....now rated 73....only ever ran once on all weather in britain when making my note book over 1m 4f at this track....travelled really well but was on the slow rail all the way round...I noted that the 1m 3f may suit better which is what tomorrows trip is....Tudhope rode that day and he rides again tomorrow which I feel could be significant....the horse hasnt run for 5 months which could be an issue but at the price I have to take a chance....win bet at 18 and protect stake with in running lay around 4.
2 00...fav here is man from mars...sire is 0 from 45 with his offspring...currently 2.45 on betfair....will be looking to either lay or oppose with a bet.
3 05...LASER LIGHT is a tricky ride and Daryl Jacob knows this horse well and is the job jockey for king....he has an exceptional record when riding for him......this horse is short but should travel all over this lot and trade very short in running even if he dogs it....bet at 1.81...lay in running around 1.2 to protect stake.
5 55 INDIAN CHIEF is currently 18 on betfair...this is an ex o brien horse once rated 110....now rated 73....only ever ran once on all weather in britain when making my note book over 1m 4f at this track....travelled really well but was on the slow rail all the way round...I noted that the 1m 3f may suit better which is what tomorrows trip is....Tudhope rode that day and he rides again tomorrow which I feel could be significant....the horse hasnt run for 5 months which could be an issue but at the price I have to take a chance....win bet at 18 and protect stake with in running lay around 4.
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Re: Grand National
I love my horse racing and will be having a bet as usual,but just spare a thought to this list..I certainly hope there are no more added to it at Aintree but I doubt it ..
http://www.horsedeathwatch.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.horsedeathwatch.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Grand National
Shocking...wasnt aware of them stats.conyoviejo wrote:I love my horse racing and will be having a bet as usual,but just spare a thought to this list..I certainly hope there are no more added to it at Aintree but I doubt it ..
http://www.horsedeathwatch.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Grand National
for sure conyoviejo
but you know these horses are pampered...they get well looked after in the yards....what does a horse do if it falls and isnt injured....it runs and jumps...what really does annoy me is seeing horses with knee actions break down when they are run on ground too fast...trainer should know better...
these horses are in the public eye...sadly millions more arent and lead a miserable excistance in 3rd world countries.
but you know these horses are pampered...they get well looked after in the yards....what does a horse do if it falls and isnt injured....it runs and jumps...what really does annoy me is seeing horses with knee actions break down when they are run on ground too fast...trainer should know better...
these horses are in the public eye...sadly millions more arent and lead a miserable excistance in 3rd world countries.
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Re: Grand National
Yes,I'm in agreement with you Happy.. Just a shame so many have died,but when you look at how many horses are actually running its just a small drop in the ocean..happyclaret17 wrote:for sure conyoviejo
but you know these horses are pampered...they get well looked after in the yards....what does a horse do if it falls and isnt injured....it runs and jumps...what really does annoy me is seeing horses with knee actions break down when they are run on ground too fast...trainer should know better...
these horses are in the public eye...sadly millions more arent and lead a miserable excistance in 3rd world countries.
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Re: Grand National
btw
2 of my selections for national are likely to be wearing headgear (vicente and perfect candidate)
the other bet is only 8 years old which I usually dont like but this year the absolute perfect horse isnt there
wouldnt be surprised if any of them won but think at least 1 should be getting in the 1st 5 and if its the 50/1 shot its 12 1/2 to 1 for the place.
2 of my selections for national are likely to be wearing headgear (vicente and perfect candidate)
the other bet is only 8 years old which I usually dont like but this year the absolute perfect horse isnt there
wouldnt be surprised if any of them won but think at least 1 should be getting in the 1st 5 and if its the 50/1 shot its 12 1/2 to 1 for the place.
Re: Grand National
£2.50 each way on those three, cheers Happy.
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Re: Grand National
I had to get a mate of mine to open a skybet account as they had closed mine....he got a £10 free bet for opening the account and has put a fiver each way on THE YOUNG MASTER so it would be good if that one clicked ( and other 2 placed.....greedy get ..he he )
Re: Grand National
Is that the sight that opens up with a gruesome picture of a broken leg? Becuase I once opened one like that, and I'm certainly not going to do that again. I can't stand the sight of footballer photos with legs going the wrong way, either.conyoviejo wrote:I love my horse racing and will be having a bet as usual,but just spare a thought to this list..I certainly hope there are no more added to it at Aintree but I doubt it ..
http://www.horsedeathwatch.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I wonder if the authors are aware that horses that aren't racehorses die as well?
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Re: Grand National
Yes it is dsr.. Don't look in the top left hand corner if you open it up..dsr wrote:Is that the sight that opens up with a gruesome picture of a broken leg? Becuase I once opened one like that, and I'm certainly not going to do that again. I can't stand the sight of footballer photos with legs going the wrong way, either.
I wonder if the authors are aware that horses that aren't racehorses die as well?
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Re: Grand National
Well I'll be there this Saturday for my 28th consecutive Grand National. With the weather set fair for the week I would imagine the ground will be good to soft at the very worse and probably good at race time
So far my selections are
Definitely Red (which I mentioned on the Cheltenham thread a few weeks ago). I backed it when the weights came out at 28/1 (e/w)
Saint Are - which has a good record over the Aintree fences and fits most of the notable trends required. The ground was simply too soft for it at race time last year as the rain belted down for a large part of the afternoon. Two times recent National winner Davy Russell rides. Backed @40/1 (e/w)
Just A Par - Again excuses last year due to the ground,But has been in decent form this season,again fits a number of trends and should hopefully have the ground in its favour this year. It also should be carrying a few pounds more in weight. Interestingly for those that like a story in the National,Just A Par is due to be sold at auction this Thursday only 2 days prior to the big race,someone could be as sick as a pig! Backed at 40/1 (e/w)
This year is the 50th anniversary of Foinavons historic 100/1 win (to the day),so who knows what Saturday May bring
So far my selections are
Definitely Red (which I mentioned on the Cheltenham thread a few weeks ago). I backed it when the weights came out at 28/1 (e/w)
Saint Are - which has a good record over the Aintree fences and fits most of the notable trends required. The ground was simply too soft for it at race time last year as the rain belted down for a large part of the afternoon. Two times recent National winner Davy Russell rides. Backed @40/1 (e/w)
Just A Par - Again excuses last year due to the ground,But has been in decent form this season,again fits a number of trends and should hopefully have the ground in its favour this year. It also should be carrying a few pounds more in weight. Interestingly for those that like a story in the National,Just A Par is due to be sold at auction this Thursday only 2 days prior to the big race,someone could be as sick as a pig! Backed at 40/1 (e/w)
This year is the 50th anniversary of Foinavons historic 100/1 win (to the day),so who knows what Saturday May bring
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Re: Grand National
looks like gibberish, I admire your horse based knowledge, but as a maths dimwit, I have never understood betting odds.
i have nothing against gambling, its just far to complex.
you sound like a purist, but the modern trend for online betting looks to be a recipe for addiction and serious debt. Every other advert seems to be for bets of some description.
i have nothing against gambling, its just far to complex.
you sound like a purist, but the modern trend for online betting looks to be a recipe for addiction and serious debt. Every other advert seems to be for bets of some description.
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Re: Grand National
suppose anything is gibberish if you dont understand it coyote...thats why I aint keen on brain surgery or rocket science...the above are facts which lead to opinion....the outcome is up in the air...purpose is to eliminate the ones that are up against and try and have a small group at value prices that fit the criteria.
Weller...I was keen on Saint Are until I realised he was under raced this year...If anyone has fancy prices on definitely red then good luck to them...sire is 0/21 at track and he isnt the biggest in the world so worry about the fences for him...also an 8 year old and I prefer the 9 to 11 year olds really....dont think he is appealing at the current odds....just a par gets too far behind in his races but at least he is well priced so perhaps forgivable if you fancy him for other reasons.
I did every bleeding runner 3 weeks ago and have notes for why they were throw outs or possibles....if it pours down I have all the mudlarks noted to try and save the day....cant see it though...wonder if the rail strike will be on as they were saying it could be....aintree will be bedlam without the train.
Weller...I was keen on Saint Are until I realised he was under raced this year...If anyone has fancy prices on definitely red then good luck to them...sire is 0/21 at track and he isnt the biggest in the world so worry about the fences for him...also an 8 year old and I prefer the 9 to 11 year olds really....dont think he is appealing at the current odds....just a par gets too far behind in his races but at least he is well priced so perhaps forgivable if you fancy him for other reasons.
I did every bleeding runner 3 weeks ago and have notes for why they were throw outs or possibles....if it pours down I have all the mudlarks noted to try and save the day....cant see it though...wonder if the rail strike will be on as they were saying it could be....aintree will be bedlam without the train.
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Re: Grand National
I think you will be able to keep the mudlark list in your pocket happy. The hourly forecast I use (I think I posted it a couple of years for you)indicate drying conditions for the three days
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Re: Grand National
As said though there isn't any that fit a full house of criteria this year and its a case a finding a couple that match most. However since the change of fences in 2012 there hasn't been a 'perfect winner,with most of those having at least one anomaly. Last year for example Rule The World had not won over fences under rules,The year before Many Clouds was the 1st top weight to win since Redrum and was only 8
Last edited by THEWELLERNUT70 on Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Grand National
absolutely right thewellernut....the last one I really strongly fancied was TEAFORTHREE which was posted on here at 20s and the only bet in the race for me...traded 1.4 over the last and collared on the run in....it really is a case of getting 2 or 3 negatives and binning them...to my knowledge the 3 bets I have gone with have a negative each but headgear has won 2 or 3 times in last 12 years or so so with all the negatives surrounding others perhaps this is the year....this years winner will definitely break at least one strong rule....the forecast has been good for a while now and that soil takes rain as good as anywhere so cant see the list coming into play either.....I really do think this is a 14/1 the field race this year but saturday morning will see 2 or 3 gambles and one going off at 7/1...crazy price ...no matter which one....tonight I will post the negatives for the fancied runners....and if anyone wants to know about any of the runners just tell me which one....I have done all the breeding angles...one of which is FLEMENSFIRTH at extreme staying trips 0/105 etc...that sire is generally a mudlark anyway.....in fairness to last years winner he did have better form than many who had contested weaker races and won them....he ran in many top class, valuable races....wish he hadnt won really as that rule of won 3m plus and 17k race was a good one for eliminating loads of runners....think there will be at least one more bet as long as its 20/1 plus.
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Re: Grand National
At the moment I'm looking at Tenor Nivernais, Vieux Lion Rouge and Saphir Due Rheu.
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Re: Grand National
will check those tonight west mids...
another point I have noticed over the years is that horses to run well in the grand national who are under age...7 or 8 year old...dont tend to progrees when returning to national....ok if they fall or pulled up but not if they finish in top dozen or so.
another point I have noticed over the years is that horses to run well in the grand national who are under age...7 or 8 year old...dont tend to progrees when returning to national....ok if they fall or pulled up but not if they finish in top dozen or so.
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Re: Grand National
Will you check out Ucello Conti as well please. 9yr old Gordon Elliott horse finished 6th last year that will run all day is not a bad start when picking one.
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Re: Grand National
Blaklion
Pleasant Company
One For Arthur
Are my 3 antepost punts, will also have a loyalty bet on Highland Lodge on the day
Pleasant Company
One For Arthur
Are my 3 antepost punts, will also have a loyalty bet on Highland Lodge on the day
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Re: Grand National
Ucello Conti looks overpriced to me. looks to have been prepped by probably the canniest trainer around. Weighted to beat Viuex Lion Rouge on strict interpretation of Haydock race
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Re: Grand National
ucello conti is way under raced based on previous winners....
sire martalines stats with chasers
4yo...4/16
5yo...11/61
6yo...11/76
7yo....10/52
8yo...3/37
9yo...2/26
10 yo ..0/16
11 yo..0/1
ucello conti now a 9yo and sires profile regresses with age.
sire 0/12 3m 5f plus chase...with only 1 place....
same category as vieux lyon rouge in as much as ran well in last years national
which as I said earlier has been a very unprofitable angle to follow
ground last year was softer than good....likely to be quicker than good this year if that may be an issue.
sire martalines stats with chasers
4yo...4/16
5yo...11/61
6yo...11/76
7yo....10/52
8yo...3/37
9yo...2/26
10 yo ..0/16
11 yo..0/1
ucello conti now a 9yo and sires profile regresses with age.
sire 0/12 3m 5f plus chase...with only 1 place....
same category as vieux lyon rouge in as much as ran well in last years national
which as I said earlier has been a very unprofitable angle to follow
ground last year was softer than good....likely to be quicker than good this year if that may be an issue.
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Re: Grand National
what a huge win that was tonight...wouldnt have been too disappointed with a point.
right...those national horses at top of market
DEFINITELY RED....8 year old not great...sire 0/21 track...smallish horse.
VIEUX LION ROUGE...too inexperienced over fences...ran in race last year which hasnt been good unless they failed to complete.
CAUSE OF CAUSES...hold up horses in national (especially fast ground) do poorly....won at cheltenham this year which is a big negative.
BLAKLION....under raced and small.
MORE OF THAT...sired by beneficial who is 1/105 3m 4 1/2 plus chases...very highly regarded though...could be a gamble on the day.
ONE FOR ARTHUR...needs heavens to open...8 year old and only 1 run this calendar year.
THE LAST SAMURI...up in the weights from last year and sire FLEMENSFIRTH very very poor at extreme distances
PLEASANT COMPANY...only 6 chase starts...too inexperienced.
SAPHIR DU RHEU...7 year old..plus sire chase only 1/28 7yo plus...1/18 3m plus.
UCELLO CONTI....sire regresses with age....ran in race last year.....only 8 chases
TENOR NIVERNAIS.....LOOKS EXPOSED WITH 24 CHASE STARTS AND NEEDS RAIN.
THE YOUNG MASTER....although only 8 has always been a well regarded chaser...trainer refused to run in this race last year
as he wanted to target him this year...reports are that he is bigger and stronger this year and sam twiston davis takes the ride.
VICENTE...has won a scottish national....sire is 5/34 3m 6 1/2 plus chases which is excellent considering most of those races will be 20 plus runner
nationaly....excellent trainer who can produce a horse cherry ripe on the day.
todays bets n lays were bizarre....got 1 race wrong and won with the other horse trading 1.01.....got other race right when winning lay traded 100 in running....both 1st 2 bets and lays were dogs.
the big priced bet travelled well for 3/4 of trip then blew up....interesting if back to c and d soon.
TOMORROW
5 00
the fav here is ROSE DE PIERRE...Dermot Weld trains and today his stable tour is online at attheraces...this is what he says about the horse.
ROSE DE PIERRE
4 b f Dubawi – Profound Beauty
Rated 102, she won three of her five starts last season including a Listed race at Cork in August.
“She will either reappear in the Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown on Wednesday or wait for the Gladness Stakes at Naas on Sunday. She’s in good shape and should represent us well. She’s still a bit immature and I think she’ll reach her peak during the summer months. She’s a good ground filly that doesn’t want extremes of ground. A mile is her trip.”
ground tomoorow is soft...laid her at 3.2
bet in the race...2nd fav ONENIGHTIDREAMED who has twice ran massive races from really bad draws including last time out when 8th in Irish Lincoln
drawn 16....stalls 1234 were 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th.
5 45...keep your eye on POWER POWER...given a tender ride last time out to get handicapped...trainer excellent at track...very strong trainer jockey combo....sire excellent on the all weather....these 3 year old handicaps can be tricky though with most of runners yet to show their true form.
right...those national horses at top of market
DEFINITELY RED....8 year old not great...sire 0/21 track...smallish horse.
VIEUX LION ROUGE...too inexperienced over fences...ran in race last year which hasnt been good unless they failed to complete.
CAUSE OF CAUSES...hold up horses in national (especially fast ground) do poorly....won at cheltenham this year which is a big negative.
BLAKLION....under raced and small.
MORE OF THAT...sired by beneficial who is 1/105 3m 4 1/2 plus chases...very highly regarded though...could be a gamble on the day.
ONE FOR ARTHUR...needs heavens to open...8 year old and only 1 run this calendar year.
THE LAST SAMURI...up in the weights from last year and sire FLEMENSFIRTH very very poor at extreme distances
PLEASANT COMPANY...only 6 chase starts...too inexperienced.
SAPHIR DU RHEU...7 year old..plus sire chase only 1/28 7yo plus...1/18 3m plus.
UCELLO CONTI....sire regresses with age....ran in race last year.....only 8 chases
TENOR NIVERNAIS.....LOOKS EXPOSED WITH 24 CHASE STARTS AND NEEDS RAIN.
THE YOUNG MASTER....although only 8 has always been a well regarded chaser...trainer refused to run in this race last year
as he wanted to target him this year...reports are that he is bigger and stronger this year and sam twiston davis takes the ride.
VICENTE...has won a scottish national....sire is 5/34 3m 6 1/2 plus chases which is excellent considering most of those races will be 20 plus runner
nationaly....excellent trainer who can produce a horse cherry ripe on the day.
todays bets n lays were bizarre....got 1 race wrong and won with the other horse trading 1.01.....got other race right when winning lay traded 100 in running....both 1st 2 bets and lays were dogs.
the big priced bet travelled well for 3/4 of trip then blew up....interesting if back to c and d soon.
TOMORROW
5 00
the fav here is ROSE DE PIERRE...Dermot Weld trains and today his stable tour is online at attheraces...this is what he says about the horse.
ROSE DE PIERRE
4 b f Dubawi – Profound Beauty
Rated 102, she won three of her five starts last season including a Listed race at Cork in August.
“She will either reappear in the Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown on Wednesday or wait for the Gladness Stakes at Naas on Sunday. She’s in good shape and should represent us well. She’s still a bit immature and I think she’ll reach her peak during the summer months. She’s a good ground filly that doesn’t want extremes of ground. A mile is her trip.”
ground tomoorow is soft...laid her at 3.2
bet in the race...2nd fav ONENIGHTIDREAMED who has twice ran massive races from really bad draws including last time out when 8th in Irish Lincoln
drawn 16....stalls 1234 were 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th.
5 45...keep your eye on POWER POWER...given a tender ride last time out to get handicapped...trainer excellent at track...very strong trainer jockey combo....sire excellent on the all weather....these 3 year old handicaps can be tricky though with most of runners yet to show their true form.
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Re: Grand National
Indian chief wasnt up to much in the 5.55 at southwell .
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Re: Grand National
he was backed from 20s on betfair to 10....like I said,,,he had a lay off and fitness wasnt guaranteed...hence a win bet...not each way...he traded 6.4 in running and went as well as anything until home turn....the way he faded in straight suggested he wasnt fit as he had the best trip of anything ( widest on home turn and not on slow rail)....SOUTHWELL is the worst possible course going to run an unfit horse on...they can be beaten a furlong on the deep fibre sand....will be a big price next time and if he comes back to the track soon,,,,especially at 1m 3f then another small bet at big odds could be in order.
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Re: Grand National
For existing Bet365 account holders there is a promotion on between this morning and 12pm Saturday. Any horse you back as a single E/W bet you get have back up to a max of £125. So you can back a horse £10 e/w for a total of £10. The funds are credited as cash into your account the second you place the bet.
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Re: Grand National
I'm trying to place a tricast reverse on sky bet but the only options I have is a combination forecast, combination tricast or tricast. Can anyone explain the difference please as I've never bet like this before.
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Re: Grand National
Combination forecast is 3 or more horse it wins if you get 1st and 2nd in any order. Tricast is 3 horses to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the correct order and a combination tricast is 3 or more horses in the same race, with any 3 to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in any order, to win. Because there are 6 possible variations your stake will be multiplied by 6. So basically it's 6 straight tricasts in one bet. So sounds like you want a combination tricast?gandhisflipflop wrote:I'm trying to place a tricast reverse on sky bet but the only options I have is a combination forecast, combination tricast or tricast. Can anyone explain the difference please as I've never bet like this before.
Last edited by WestMidsClaret on Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Grand National
When you say tricast reverse I take it you are mean picking first 3 in any order ?
Normally on the listing it was show boxes to select :-
1st 2nd 3rd any
When I do them I just click the 3 any boxes. It may not be showing as an option yet until the day of the race some sites wont have it added yet
Normally on the listing it was show boxes to select :-
1st 2nd 3rd any
When I do them I just click the 3 any boxes. It may not be showing as an option yet until the day of the race some sites wont have it added yet
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Re: Grand National
Can someone explain how the form works, never really been into horse racing but I watched Cheltenham and enjoyed having little bets on random horses and just watched the 2.20 and won £3 off 50p ew bet on Bedrock hehe. What does P-2434 mean on the form? Cheers
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Re: Grand National
Last 5 runs
P = pulled up (didn't finish the race) 5 races ago
the - is the different jump season
2434 are the places it has finished last 4 runs
P = pulled up (didn't finish the race) 5 races ago
the - is the different jump season
2434 are the places it has finished last 4 runs
Re: Grand National
Thats the horse`s last 5 runs.Rodneyyouplonker wrote:Can someone explain how the form works, never really been into horse racing but I watched Cheltenham and enjoyed having little bets on random horses and just watched the 2.20 and won £3 off 50p ew bet on Bedrock hehe. What does P-2434 mean on the form? Cheers
P = pulled up (i.e. the horse was pulled up before the race finished)
The dash means it was last season.
The other 4 numbers are where the horse finished in the race....the most recent one being the horses last race. i.e. it finished 4th last time out.
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Re: Grand National
Cheers for that.
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Re: Grand National
A lad who used to drive horses about and give us the odd tip has said Highland Lodge has got a very good chance. It's 25/1 and hasn't run for a while. Just thought I would share.
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Re: Grand National
WestMidsClaret wrote:Combination forecast is 3 or more horse it wins if you get 1st and 2nd in any order. Tricast is 3 horses to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the correct order and a combination tricast is 3 or more horses in the same race, with any 3 to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in any order, to win. Because there are 6 possible variations your stake will be multiplied by 6. So basically it's 6 straight tricasts in one bet. So sounds like you want a combination tricast?
Yes I want 1st 2nd 3rd in any order. Also in the returns on skybet it says dividend. What does this mean? Cheers
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Re: Grand National
gandhisflipflop wrote:Yes I want 1st 2nd 3rd in any order. Also in the returns on skybet it says dividend. What does this mean? Cheers
Its a tote bet so works out differently than starting prices. Go on skybet now and look at the 4.40 race, scroll down to the forecast/tricast part and you can see the any box for an example. It will cost you 6 x whatever stake you pick as you have 6 different combinations that can win.
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Re: Grand National
Like a little gamble but do not have a clue about horse's but my grandad loved a bet and his name was joe, so............Drop out joe it is!
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Re: Grand National
Taken you advice Happy & had £2.50 EW on
The Young Master 20/1
Vicente 20/1
& Perfect Candidate 50/1
Going to Aintree tomorrow so hopefully cheering them home into a place at least.
Saving a few Quid for Last Samuri & Highland Lodge on the day
The Young Master 20/1
Vicente 20/1
& Perfect Candidate 50/1
Going to Aintree tomorrow so hopefully cheering them home into a place at least.
Saving a few Quid for Last Samuri & Highland Lodge on the day
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Re: Grand National
B365 are doing their annual offer on Grand National - it's a cracking offer.
Put an each way bet on and you get half the money back as a free bet.
So back a horse at £5 each way - at normal cost of £10. And £5 is credited as a free bet - it says it can take up to 2 hours for this to be credited but it usually takes a few minutes.
The offer runs out at 12pm tomorrow.
You can bet up to £125 on this offer and put as many bets on as you want as long as they don't total more than £125.
If you use the £5 credit (as per above example) to then back another horse at £2.50 each way....you then get £2.50 of this as another free credit - which you can then use to put a £1.25 each way bet on and then get £1.25 as a free bet....and so on until you get to 1p each way.....then end it with a 1p single !!!
Put an each way bet on and you get half the money back as a free bet.
So back a horse at £5 each way - at normal cost of £10. And £5 is credited as a free bet - it says it can take up to 2 hours for this to be credited but it usually takes a few minutes.
The offer runs out at 12pm tomorrow.
You can bet up to £125 on this offer and put as many bets on as you want as long as they don't total more than £125.
If you use the £5 credit (as per above example) to then back another horse at £2.50 each way....you then get £2.50 of this as another free credit - which you can then use to put a £1.25 each way bet on and then get £1.25 as a free bet....and so on until you get to 1p each way.....then end it with a 1p single !!!
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Re: Grand National
I'll be in the Redrum Garden from around 11am soaking up the atmosphereJamesSherbourne wrote:Taken you advice Happy & had £2.50 EW on
The Young Master 20/1
Vicente 20/1
& Perfect Candidate 50/1
Going to Aintree tomorrow so hopefully cheering them home into a place at least.
Saving a few Quid for Last Samuri & Highland Lodge on the day
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Re: Grand National
In racing you get 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 13/2 15/2 and 17/2 why not 19/2?? Just curious.....
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Re: Grand National
the uk has no monopoly on looking after horses, if you want to look locally, their are some hideous cases of cruelty and neglect.happyclaret17 wrote:for sure conyoviejo
but you know these horses are pampered...they get well looked after in the yards....what does a horse do if it falls and isnt injured....it runs and jumps...what really does annoy me is seeing horses with knee actions break down when they are run on ground too fast...trainer should know better...
these horses are in the public eye...sadly millions more arent and lead a miserable excistance in 3rd world countries.