Monday racing

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happyclaret17
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Monday racing

Post by happyclaret17 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:45 am

first of all a quick recap on yesterdays yankee and other bets.
I dont tend to be on here during busy racing days due to the amount of work I have to get through.
2 short priced winners in the yankee
other 2....flashman jumped like a pig....not one to be with ever again.
chamasay beat all the fancied runners and the 2 that finished ahead of him had very little form and were the outsiders of the field in the morning
unusual for southwell...vast majority of winners areat the head of the market.
the real annoying one for me was PHOBIAPHILIAC who was backed due to the ground being described as good/watered at ffos las.
the first and 2nd race were around 40 seconds slower than standard so the ground was soft....I knew early on the card that they had called the ground wrong....as I trade the races I assess the ground every day...every meeting so I adjust my betting/laying accordingly.
ENGLISH HERO found his true price very late...think he went off around 8/1 after sustained late support....I never felt at any stage he was going to win
and the winner won well....if the bet was fully fit I think they may step him up to 7f as he was never just travelling....if he wasnt fit then they may stick at 6f and perhaps go back to track over 6f...if morris takes the ride then that would be a plus.

btw...whenever possible I back each way on the betfair markets where an extra place is available....ew 123 for 7 runners....ew 1234 in races up to 15 runners and ew 12345 above 15 runners...

todays 64 races in ireland and uk are too much to get to grips with....I have done work on the irish grand national last week and happy with the selections there.
also done the early races on the cards.
1 00 FAROOK
I have backed this at 3.2 on betfair and will try and lay stake in running at around 1.5 to protect stake.
2 dangers here are...HYDROXIDE who is having his seasonal debut and stables last 15 runners have all lost....and the other is MOSTAHEL who is having his 3rd run today so gets handicapped after this....this trip looks sharp based on his first 2 runs.
FAROOK had a forcing ride at chelmsford last time and was picked up close home by a horse having his debut who could be anything....a similar ride today should see him go close.

1 30 ROCK OF AMERICA 11/4
this took on the older horses last time and was green on only his 2nd run....back to his own age group should be the one to beat.

1 50 HUNT...EXCELLENT RESULT 2/1
this horse won a group 2 in dubai....when he won last time his hurdling wasnt foot perfect and stable was quiet.....back to same course and distance with that experience he looks the one to beat.

2 05 SIOUXPERHERO 12/1...is back to his best trip and is just a value play...not one to go mad on as trainer and jockey not to be trusted...personally taken 14 on betfair...win only and try and trade him at around 4 in running for a free bet.

3 45 TAVERNER 11/2...time before last made all over this course and distance...ignore the turf run....he did it well that day and if given a similar forcing ride from the 7lb claimer has to go close.....the fav BINKY BLUE has had some SYMPATHETIC RIDES lately and looks like a job horse...however I dont like the 58 day break and at the prices done taverner ew 1234 on betfair.

5 00...IRISH GRAND NATIONAL.
the 3 I like that fit the trends are...FLETCHERS FLYER...10/1...HAYMOUNT 12/1....GENERAL PRINCIPLE 20/1...1 point win...2 point place ...12345 each of them.

off cycling now...will updat ebefore 1 oclock if anything further transpires...utc.

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