Monday racing

[happyclaret17]

2 00 ponte
I did this race without knowing the odds…the shortlist came down to 3 horses
SINALOA 2/1…PALMER 7/2 AND EYES OF FIRE 20/1
Difficult to know at this stage the best way to go because any one of them could drift like a barge pre race…
The draw is a big factor here with low numbers hugely favoured.

2 10
AUNTIE PAM 7/2
I think she wins or the fav CORINTHIA KNIGHT who I tipped when winning on debut.
Corinthia knight is a colt and auntie pam a filly….I would prefer to be betting a colt but she is 4 times
His price.
The fav was the earliest colt on his debut and he took advantage of that with an easy win.
AUNTIE PAM showed good pace from a bad draw on debut and her sire sir prancelot is poor at producing first time out winners so
She could/should improve again….the fav concedes weight all round in this.

3 55 global dream looks too skinny around 11/10 on this fast ground as he has a knee action…also its an extreme distance so staying isn’t guaranteed
So I have laid this one.

4 45 DADDIES GIRL 3/1 looks the one to beat here…she was poorly drawn on debut when racing against the colts….racing against fillies here and down in class is the one to beat.

4 55 PETICOATGOVERNMENT 11/1 is a notebook horse of mine with ideal conditions including a good draw….a 10lb claimer rides who has
Won 1 from 3 for stable with another one placing.

5 05 BINKY BLUE 11/2 is a job horse waiting to win….taking a chance it is today…has had a recent run for fitness.

5 25 I am laying downforce for a place…his best form is over further on soft ground…this should be too quick.

ps
we aint going down...our 2 home games are against teams who are on the beach...utc.

[ten bellies]

Thanks Happy. £5 E/W on Peticoatgovernment at 11/1.

[JohnMac]

Cheers Happy, again!
PetticoatGovernment @ 10/1 on PaddyPower.
Shared it with my brother, he is extremely pleased.

[cutsy123]

Cheers happy

[Blackstock]

Cheers Happy. Binky Blue only beat a neck too. Looking forward to seeing if you have anything for Punchestown this week

[happyclaret17]

Cheers all...good to know you are getting the right prices.
that binky blue was a strange one...very weak on betfair...in the end and possibly should have won...the 2 year old at kempton auntie pam was hating going right handed...I would not expect that to go that way again...CORINTHIAN KNIGHT hacked up in the end.
the fahey 2 year sinaloa old was unusually slowly away today...beaten less at the end than lost at the start...trouble is that the sires runners are best on debut...I will be against the horse on next run.
daddies girl ran a shocker.
the 2 lays were both profitable with the place lay finishing nearer last than first.
and of course peticoatgovernment landed a little gamble...in to 7/1...

been golfing this afternoon so message for tomorrow will be before 8 30 tomorrow morning in time to get best early prices...utc

[claretdj]

Happy any chance you can do a NAP each day out of all your selections? Utc...

[happyclaret17]

Will try and make clear which ones I fancy most claretdj...and also suggest bets for maximising returns....each way doubles a potent weapon in the punters armoury...you wont see the bookies advertising those...utc.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Could you do a table outlining daily profit from pound stakes?

[Goobs]

Haha typical.

Followed the tips a lot recently when you had a bit of a barren spell last week, then been busy for last two days and missed the tips where you seem to have had an upturn in form.

Keep them coming.

[happyclaret17]

really difficult to do a results table as its difficult to know how people have used the selections...
but going back to saturday 10 days ago the sequence of results at advised prices as follows.
won 5/1
w 6/1
lost 7/4

lost 13/8
lost 11/10
won 7/4
lost 20/1
lost 3/1
won 6/4
lost 9/2

lost 11/4
lost 2/1
lost 12/1

lost 2/1
won 6/1
lost 10/1
won 5/1
(lay lost so profit laid 2.4) won 2 points
lost 10/1
lost 8/1
won 12/1
lost 5/1
lost 10/1
lost 9/2
( lay lost so profit laid 2.5) won 2 points
lost 11/1

lost 8/1
lost 7/1
lost 8/1
(lay lost so profit laid @ 2)

lost 8/1
won 2/1
lost 14/1
lost 4/1
lost 8/1
2nd 20/1 stakes returned
won 8/1
lost 8/1

lost 11/2
lost 14/1
( lay lost so profit laid @ 3) won 1 point

lost 5/1
tiny loss if selections backed ew 123456 as I did....10 points staked 9 returned.
won 12/1

lost 4/1
2nd 16/1 won stakes returned
lost 9/2

((lay lost so profit laid 2.3) won 2 points
lost 7/2
lost 3/1
won 11/1
( place lay lost so profit laid 1.76 ) won 3 points

45 bets
81.25 returned
11 winners...6/4...7/4...2/1...5/1...5/1...6/1...6/1...8/1...11/1...12/1...12/1...
6 profitable lays returned 12 points
51 bets or lays
93.25 points returned
83 percent profit on turnover (pot)
longest losing un 8 selections ( counting win bets only...not lays )
at the prices I play at I would expect much longer losing runs than this long term.

note that ew selections placing settled as only stakes returned....If they are big prices
and only playing 1 horse in a race I bet to return stakes as an insurance.
also note that many of the winners will have been traded off in running
and many of the losers protected in running.

the figures above are not a realistic picture of returns but every service out there uses these figures
utc.

[happyclaret17]

no bet today so far but still have to do all the races after the 4 40 at ludlow...will post a new thread some time before 4 30 but not later...utc.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Thanks Happy for going to that effort

[cutsy123]

GET IN HAPPY

YESS

[happyclaret17]

good start to the double cutsy....hope the other one has read the script.
no problem cricketfieldclarets I thought it was important to show the pattern of the results...and that if people just stake properly and make the effort to get top price they can make it pay.....this game aint for everyone though is it...you do need to grow a pair when things dont go to plan for a period....it happens frequently.
of course a percentage of bank staking plan is never a bad idea...risking 2 percent of bank on each selection....as you win more your stakes increase proportionally....during losing spells they decrease....if the bank doubles then take 25 percent and bank it....and keep repeating the process.
betting like a robot is the best way...no emotion...but be warned...I only have 2 or 3 live accounts now...it becomes difficult getting bookies to take the bets....a good idea is to put other peoples footy bets...dog bets etc through your accounts ...that will extend the lifespan of your account...utc.

[cutsy123]

Ive done a l15 pal

[happyclaret17]

whats the others then cutsy.

[cutsy123]

whats the others then cutsy.

Had 20 on fox norton for win at 3s

Then have this