It's not just about Brexit

[Devils_Advocate]

Maybe some Burnley lads will have a whip round and organise a plane to fly over the Channel #ALM

[Bordeauxclaret]

Last few weeks -

Black Lives Matter.

No, all lives matter.

What about those people in the little boats?

F**k em!! Get France to sort our borders.

[Jakubclaret]

I'd suggested that randomly plucking stuff out of the air, as you are wont to do, and ignoring the facts is more indicative of an ill informed opinion.

As I say, this was just a convenient example of the bigger situation, you couldn't argue against any of the figures or the actual reality of the situation, so you just ignored them.

Facts aren't ignored at all, I've been to the large town's & cities & I've seen what goes on & how there operate on such a scale, I've seen them begging I've seen them in the soup kitchens I've even knocked on the doors in a professional capacity, the knowledge you seem to possess seems to be derived from reading newspapers or going on Twitter & seeing a graph or a chart or another statistic & you resolutely believe in that, instead of opening your eyes & walking the streets & talking to people on the front.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Now on course for the most excess deaths and the biggest drop in GDP in Europe.

Thank goodness they’ve handled it well.

[Spijed]

Now on course for the most excess deaths and the biggest drop in GDP in Europe.

Thank goodness they’ve handled it well.

Drop in GDP, Apr-Jun 2020

Germany: -10.1%
EU: -11.9% EU
Belgium: -12.2% Belgium
Italy -12.4% Italy
France -13.8% France
Spain -14.1% Spain
UK: -20.4%

[martin_p]

Drop in GDP, Apr-Jun 2020

Germany: -10.1%
EU: -11.9% EU
Belgium: -12.2% Belgium
Italy -12.4% Italy
France -13.8% France
Spain -14.1% Spain
UK: -20.4%

Apparently it’s because ‘we’re more sociable’. Translation - our economy is too dependent on the service industry.

[RingoMcCartney]

Hi Team Leftwing Doomsters!,

Sorry to be the harbinger of good news but , by their very nature the figures are historical.

Mystic McCartney predicts that the recession that the Left are gleefully salivating about, is already over and July's figure will prove it.

Sorry for peeing on your open top bus misery parade .

[RingoMcCartney]

The Left -

"These economic figures are a disaster. It's entirely down to the tories handling of the Coronavirus crisis"
August 2020.

The Left-

"Thd tories should have gone onto lockdown sooner and longer." July 2020

[martin_p]

Hi Team Leftwing Doomsters!,

Sorry to be the harbinger of good news but , by their very nature the figures are historical.

Mystic McCartney predicts that the recession that the Left are gleefully salivating about, is already over and July's figure will prove it.

Sorry for peeing on your open top bus misery parade .

No need to predict, there was growth in May and June. The problem is the growth will be slower than the crash so it’ll take time to get back to where we were, people are calling it a Nike Swoosh recovery.

Oh, and no one’s salivating. I know you like to see victories and defeats in all of this but the crash is likely to be bad news for many, irrespective of their politics. The question that needs to be examined though is why has our economy been hit so much more than others? Is it just because we are so dependent on the service sector or is it because we were slow to act at the start of the pandemic?

[Bordeauxclaret]

The question that needs to be examined though is why has our economy been hit so much more than others? Is it just because we are so dependent on the service sector or is it because we were slow to act at the start of the pandemic?

I’m going to guess the excuse will be that good ol Blighty are reporting the figures correctly while those pesky foreigners are fudging their figures.

[RingoMcCartney]

No need to predict, there was growth in May and June. The problem is the growth will be slower than the crash so it’ll take time to get back to where we were, people are calling it a Nike Swoosh recovery.

Oh, and no one’s salivating. I know you like to see victories and defeats in all of this but the crash is likely to be bad news for many, irrespective of their politics. The question that needs to be examined though is why has our economy been hit so much more than others? Is it just because we are so dependent on the service sector or is it because we were slow to act at the start of the pandemic?

So, the recessions over as I predicted !

Thanks for the early and prompt confirmation!

Mystic McCartney strikes again!

[RingoMcCartney]

The Audi advert was in the news and caused a minor controversy, what was wrong with starting a thread about it? What are you implying here?

This is why you're a nasty piece of work. Play the victim when things aren't following your narrative, then throw out nasty little innuendos out like this.

And who knew we talk about things other than football on here.

"When things aren't following your narrative you play the victim"

As regular posters will know, I've spent hours , days interacting with posters with a different, often opposing opinion. So your argument doesn't hold water.

I just wont stand for another poster ceaselessly and relentlessly trolling me spewing vile poisonous and entirely false, groundless and ignorant claims about a child. My child.

Zero victimhood here. Just someone who thinks posts containing attention craving bile aimed at an 8 year old boy have no place on a messageboard. The mods agreed.

More generally, things are going very much my way.

1, My teams in the Premier League for another season.

2, We've Left the EU

3, The last time Labour won an election, Dwight McNeill was 5.

Reasons to be cheerful.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Ah the old Tommeh Robinson defence.

[martin_p]

So, the recessions over as I predicted !

Thanks for the early and prompt confirmation!

Mystic McCartney strikes again!

It’ll be over when the next growth figures come out in three months time.

Well done for predicting today something that happened two months ago.

[martin_p]

"When things aren't following your narrative you play the victim"

As regular posters will know, I've spent hours , days interacting with posters with a different, often opposing opinion. So your argument doesn't hold water.

I just wont stand for another poster ceaselessly and relentlessly trolling me spewing vile poisonous and entirely false, groundless and ignorant claims about a child. My child.

Zero victimhood here. Just someone who thinks posts containing attention craving bile aimed at an 8 year old boy have no place on a messageboard. The mods agreed.

More generally, things are going very much my way.

1, My teams in the Premier League for another season.

2, We've Left the EU

3, The last time Labour won an election, Dwight McNeill was 5.

Reasons to be cheerful.

How’s being out of the EU going for you. Tell us of the tangible benefits you’re feeling so far. Go on, it’s a chance to crow!

[aggi]

Apparently it’s because ‘we’re more sociable’. Translation - our economy is too dependent on the service industry.

This is actually the EU's fault. I'm not sure exactly why but Ringo was very adamant that the EU had a master plan to let Germany do all the manufacturing, France the farming and the UK services (he didn't elaborate on what the other countries had been earmarked for, I think he might have forgotten them). I'm not entirely sure what the benefit of this was or how it was actually enacted but he was very definite about it.

Then again, this is the man who is boasting about predicting that a country coming out of lockdown may have an economic upturn.

[Swizzlestick]

"When things aren't following your narrative you play the victim"

As regular posters will know, I've spent hours , days interacting with posters with a different, often opposing opinion. So your argument doesn't hold water.

I just wont stand for another poster ceaselessly and relentlessly trolling me spewing vile poisonous and entirely false, groundless and ignorant claims about a child. My child.

Zero victimhood here. Just someone who thinks posts containing attention craving bile aimed at an 8 year old boy have no place on a messageboard. The mods agreed.

More generally, things are going very much my way.

1, My teams in the Premier League for another season.

2, We've Left the EU

3, The last time Labour won an election, Dwight McNeill was 5.

Reasons to be cheerful.

I saw the posts - they weren't "poisonous" or "vile". He'd caught you out with your brazen lie about concerns for white, working class boys at school. As you had no response, you threw your toys out of the pram and got the thread deleted, because that's the type of thing you do. Meanwhile, you make comments inferring nasty, personal things about another poster, but that's all a-ok.

I stand by it - you're a nasty piece of work, and your grandstanding while the country is on its arse is confirmation of that. Anyway, we'll leave it at that - you have a habit of ruining debates and getting threads deleted and it would be unfair to those who know how to debate in an adult manner for that to happen.

[keith1879]

Ringo who?

[ksrclaret]

You can always tell when the lines at talk radio are busy because we get his shite posted all over here instead.

I suppose you could say that radio station provides a service to the rest of this board’s users when they’re taking his calls.

[evensteadiereddie]

Bonkers !

The bloke claims all schools, including his lad's therefore, are rife with racism and sexism, holding all those poor, white boys back and, and, and, and - well, that's it, really.

Disturbingly, he's neither the confidence nor the sense of responsibility to challenge the leadership of his local school thus losing the opportunity to rectify any racist and sexist nonsense going on in there. He prefers to hide behind fabricated claims of being trolled and a lad - his lad - being insulted.

Absolute tosh, of course, which is strange, you'd think he'd be an expert in such matters what with having already been banned from this forum for ooooh, what was it again ?

Hypocritical ? Daft as a brush ? Ineffectual parenting ? I guess we all have our theories.....................

Again, no trolling, no "poison", just pointing out his bullshit - and cowardly bullshit at that.

Be brave, Ringo, move on, challenge the school and get back to us with your findings.

It is, potentially, a massive issue and one area in which you could make a useful, positive contribution. It can't be that daunting.......can it ?

[clarethomer]

Drop in GDP, Apr-Jun 2020

Germany: -10.1%
EU: -11.9% EU
Belgium: -12.2% Belgium
Italy -12.4% Italy
France -13.8% France
Spain -14.1% Spain
UK: -20.4%

Another snippet of information which on face value only tells part of the story and it looks like Spain's figures are incorrect.

Screenshot 2020-08-12 at 17.05.41.png (350.17 KiB) Viewed 1756 times

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 20European

I also think that in comparing the EU dataset to the UK dataset, you will find that these are figures which are not aligned as the EU will update their GDP Q2 figures on 14th August with ours coming out today.

You do have to be careful also with these figures also in that you could compare the US with the EU and think that Trump is doing a terrible job with their Q2 GDP of (-)32.9%.

The way that this figure is calculated is different so that is a forecast for their annual GDP deficit. This means if you were to calculate the US v the EU27 - they are doing better and also better against the eurozone also who have (-)39.8% and (-) 40.3%

Will be interesting to see what the revised updated EU figures show later this week to have a full like for like comparison.

The other consideration to look at - which I can't see any figures for the EU countries on this but the ONS have confirmed that despite the (-20.4%) drop, June showed we had some greenshoots.

Screenshot 2020-08-12 at 17.05.41.png (350.17 KiB) Viewed 1756 times

Can't say how long this will be sustained or how these figures will compare further in the future but the one great thing that the UK has is we control our currency and we have our own central bank.

We no longer will be restrained in the same way that we would had we been in the EU. We have more flexibility and less shackles in the the sense of being responsible for our own future.

But before everyone starts jumping on the remoaners/rejoiners bandwagon. None of this means we are guaranteed to get out of this pain free and none of this means that we wouldn't have had some of these options open to us if we were in the EU. The time to debate the success/failure of Brexit on this will come further down the line.

[Greenmile]

.... The time to debate the success/failure of Brexit on this will come further down the line.

Will you let us all know when we’re allowed to debate the failure of Brexit? I hope I’m still alive by then - I’m looking forward to it.

[clarethomer]

Why do you need me to let you know? I don't control the debate on here.

If you think you can call out the success, or lack of success of a recovery in the middle of a pandemic - go ahead a debate away. If you read my post, I have said now is not the time to call out the success of brexit on this. 'On this' referring to us all seeing if Brexit has helped, or hindered our recovery whenever that may be.

Just another muppet looking for an argument on the back of a post which tries to provide a bit of info and context to help the discussion.

Is this a relative of yours by any chance? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAhEFuq62-I

[KateR]

numbers and percentages are easy to throw up and claim how bad or good something is but it has to be relative, the two graphs should help you understand realities, or is it that Trump is doing so much better than the major EU countries in the first 6 months of 2020?

The figures previously provided above are totally misleading unless you anchor them to something, playing numbers games by month is a very silly way to look at anything, so unfortunately you are going to have to either come up with better yardsticks or wait and see the real meaningful data, which is most likely not going to happen in 2020.

Neither is the good or bad outcome due to our exit from the UK, but keep on trying to pin point to those disasters, like the proverbial blind pig, you'll find something one day that will be right.

I think you would be far better off concentrating on the issues of global warming as a threat than worrying about the outcome of Brexit, but each to his own.

[martin_p]

Neither is the good or bad outcome due to our exit from the UK, but keep on trying to pin point to those disasters, like the proverbial blind pig, you'll find something one day that will be right.

Who’s tried to do this as a matter of interest?

[KateR]

Who’s tried to do this as a matter of interest?

Give it a rest Martin, you've nothing new or concrete to offer that is worth discussing.

[martin_p]

Give it a rest Martin, you've nothing new or concrete to offer that is worth discussing.

Wow you’ve been properly triggered by something tonight. I’ll answer your my question for you. No one has laid the current disaster at the door of Brexit, why would they. It’s a different question as to what has caused our figures to be worse than other similar economies and that is what I tried to start a discussion on. But it seems for some that the trigger response when there’s economic bad news is to defend the beloved Brexit. It’s become a cult!

[Jakubclaret]

Wow you’ve been properly triggered by something tonight. I’ll answer your my question for you. No one has laid the current disaster at the door of Brexit, why would they. It’s a different question as to what has caused our figures to be worse than other similar economies and that is what I tried to start a discussion on. But it seems for some that the trigger response when there’s economic bad news is to defend the beloved Brexit. It’s become a cult!

It certainly hasn't dissuaded the usual suspects from sniping away & making insinuations.

[martin_p]

It certainly hasn't dissuaded the usual suspects from sniping away & making insinuations.

Insinuations about what? You lot need to calm down, no ones blaming your beautiful Brexit. It’ll be next year when that hits us!

[clarethomer]

Trying to have a sensible conversation on here is like trying to convince a Blackburn fan they are riding the horse incorrectly

[clarethomer]

or like this

internet arguments.jpeg (12.39 KiB) Viewed 1628 times

[martin_p]

Trying to have a sensible conversation on here is like trying to convince a Blackburn fan they are riding the horse incorrectly

Well I tried at 1.27pm but then people started defending Brexit for some reason.

[KateR]

Ohhh Martin, I will try to explain maybe it's because my post had three main points in it,

One: You and your friends providing erroneous data regarding the UK and the GDP in support of the cliques hatred of all things Tory, here is why the graphs were provided as an opposite view to yours, and others where you all commented on the UK being worse, you didn't respond to this.

Two: I mentioned Brexit outcomes, where some above were relating things, plus many of the previous other pages here of picking Isolated things, like the train that goes through the tunnel and in regard to arbitration for example, storm in a teacup and after providing you with details and the why for with the Dutch and Belgium counterparts, you never responded to that either.

Three: I mentioned Global Warming and guess what, you never mentioned that either.

I am neither supporting or defending Brexit, yes I supported leaving, no doubt for anyone I assume, but have always maintained it will be good and bad depending on where you are and the industry you're in, still do and it is a long way to go. Yet so many trying to show the shortcomings now and every week/month, we will have a long wait for anything meaningful and the same with the economy, as I said not in 2020, but it doesn't stop you posting criticizing.

[Devils_Advocate]

The basic mechanics of Brexit and this divisive Tory govt

[NewClaret]

Seems to be turning in to a new COVID thread? The success of the economic recovery will not be measured now or even this year, but in the years to come, so throwing around any charts should wait until then.

[KateR]

PS, Martin, just to say I say your post regarding the "eat of "offer" and you mentioned it as a good thing with no clarifications. I will freely admit I almost fell of my chair when I read it and I also gave a like on your post. So I do/have stopped saying you never say one good thing about the Tory's/Gov.

[martin_p]

Ohhh Martin, I will try to explain maybe it's because my post had three main points in it,

One: You and your friends providing erroneous data regarding the UK and the GDP in support of the cliques hatred of all things Tory, here is why the graphs were provided as an opposite view to yours, and others where you all commented on the UK being worse, you didn't respond to this.

Two: I mentioned Brexit outcomes, where some above were relating things, plus many of the previous other pages here of picking Isolated things, like the train that goes through the tunnel and in regard to arbitration for example, storm in a teacup and after providing you with details and the why for with the Dutch and Belgium counterparts, you never responded to that either.

Three: I mentioned Global Warming and guess what, you never mentioned that either.

I am neither supporting or defending Brexit, yes I supported leaving, no doubt for anyone I assume, but have always maintained it will be good and bad depending on where you are and the industry you're in, still do and it is a long way to go. Yet so many trying to show the shortcomings now and every week/month, we will have a long wait for anything meaningful and the same with the economy, as I said not in 2020, but it doesn't stop you posting criticizing.

1. I never provided any figures and had already mentioned there had been growth in May and June so didn’t think I needed to respond.

2. The information you provided on the Dutch thing has been provided by others before and didn’t contradict anything I’d said. It was an issue of extending a three way treaty to a four way treaty so the Dutch could do the customs bit and pieces to enter the U.K. in Amsterdam rather than people have to get off the train and do it in Brussels.

3. You raised a very dull point I ignored (and so did everyone else). I’m sorry.


And the discussion I was trying to have is why the dip was so bad not the recovery (although again I did mention it was starting to happen). No one seems to want to discuss, so fine.

[KateR]

1. I never provided any figures and had already mentioned there had been growth in May and June so didn’t think I needed to respond.

2. The information you provided on the Dutch thing has been provided by others before and didn’t contradict anything I’d said. It was an issue of extending a three way treaty to a four way treaty so the Dutch could do the customs bit and pieces to enter the U.K. in Amsterdam rather than people have to get off the train and do it in Brussels.

3. You raised a very dull point I ignored (and so did everyone else).

And the discussion I was trying to have is why the dip was so bad not the recovery (although again I did mention it was starting to happen). No one seems to want to discuss, so fine.

[martin_p]

Glad you didn’t waste your time making stuff up this time.

[clarethomer]

You can see from the ONS figures which parts of the economy suffered.

Interestingly Spain - who have also had a strict lockdown, had a similar experience in GDP.

Maybe the way lockdown happened and the rules implemented locally had something to do with it.

Take Sweden an example - They have announced their Q2 GDP figures and took a completely different approach - Why are they so different?

Article on Sweden - https://www.ft.com/content/fdb6fbe4-499 ... ac2d6fd824. For those who can't read it..

Sweden’s economy shrank less than eurozone’s at height of pandemic

Quarterly GDP contracted only 9% thanks to country’s light-touch approach to virus

Richard Milne, Nordic and Baltic Correspondent AUGUST 5 2020

Sweden’s economy performed better than most of Europe at the height of the pandemic even though its economy shrank by the most since the second world war, as the Scandinavian country appeared to benefit from its lighter-touch approach to coronavirus.

Gross domestic product in the second quarter fell 8.6 per cent compared with the previous three months, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Sweden published on Wednesday. But that was significantly better than the 12 per cent contraction experienced across the eurozone in the same period.

The hardest-hit major European economy was Spain, which logged an 18 per cent contraction; the German economy shrank by about a tenth.

Sweden has been at the centre of a fierce international debate about the merits of locking down as a means of tackling the spread of the virus. It refused to follow the rest of Europe into a formal shutdown, keeping its schools, restaurants and borders open while urging people to work from home and keep a distance from each other.

After being one of the very few European countries to eke out positive growth in the first quarter, Sweden continued to be an outlier in April, May and June — the peak of the pandemic so far in Europe. According to flash estimates last week, only Latvia and Lithuania performed better with GDP declines in the second quarter of 7.5 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.

David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said the contraction showed Sweden was not “immune to Covid”. He added: “Nonetheless, the economic crunch over the first half of the year is in a different league entirely to the horror shows elsewhere in Europe.”

For several weeks this spring, Sweden had the highest death rate per capita in Europe, and one that was 20 times that of neighbouring Norway. But its overall death rate per capita now lags behind several countries that locked down such as Belgium, Spain and the UK.

Economists expect Sweden’s economy to shrink by about 4 to 5 per cent this year — better than the forecasts for the eurozone and its major economies, but in line with estimates for neighbouring Denmark and Norway, both of whom locked down.

On Wednesday economists at Swedish lender SEB upgraded their forecast for Sweden’s GDP this year to a fall of 4 per cent, from 5 per cent previously.

“It is too early to evaluate how different strategies to deal with Covid-19 have affected the economies,” said Torbjorn Isaksson, chief analyst at Nordea.

Sweden’s central bank has kept its main interest rate at zero after raising it at the end of last year, arguing that monetary policy is not the best response to tackle the fallout from coronavirus.

I suspect we will look back on this and say we were too harsh in our lockdown and I suspect we will also feel like we could have tried a different approach to supporting businesses - or keeping the economy going.

Reality is that it's easy to say something could have been done differently and would have made a difference but there is cause and effect which no one can say what would have happened by taking that alternate course.

Would we have been better or worse off? Can you compare one economy/country in comparison to another? - As one example - 2018 stats show 37m tourists into the UK versus the 7m that went to sweden. That is going to impact on GDP differently.

[KateR]

Glad you didn’t waste your time making stuff up this time.

[dsr]

I suspect we will look back on this and say we were too harsh in our lockdown and I suspect we will also feel like we could have tried a different approach to supporting businesses - or keeping the economy going.

Reality is that it's easy to say something could have been done differently and would have made a difference but there is cause and effect which no one can say what would have happened by taking that alternate course.

Would we have been better or worse off? Can you compare one economy/country in comparison to another? - As one example - 2018 stats show 37m tourists into the UK versus the 7m that went to sweden. That is going to impact on GDP differently.

I agree that we were too harsh on lockdown and far too successful at persuading people to be afraid.

I think the tourism thing is a bit of a red herring because our population is five times the size of Sweden's and so five times the tourists is only in proportion.

[martin_p]

I feel obliged to keep responding to your posts lest you accuse me of ignoring your points. I’ll say I blame Brexit to keep you happy eh?

[clarethomer]

I agree that we were too harsh on lockdown and far too successful at persuading people to be afraid.

I think the tourism thing is a bit of a red herring because our population is five times the size of Sweden's and so five times the tourists is only in proportion.

That is a good point - its what makes it so difficult to compare and given these are 'flash' estimates - we are unlikely to really understand this.

[NewClaret]

I agree that we were too harsh on lockdown and far too successful at persuading people to be afraid.

I think the tourism thing is a bit of a red herring because our population is five times the size of Sweden's and so five times the tourists is only in proportion.

Goodness me, if this thread doesn’t stop discussing COVID, we’ll be discussing the downward revision of the death rate today, bringing us lower than Italy & Spain by population.

Let’s get back on topic - the impending doom of Brexit.

[clarethomer]

Will you let us all know when we’re allowed to debate the failure of Brexit? I hope I’m still alive by then - I’m looking forward to it.

You don't need me...

New claret meet greenmile...

Greenmile meet new claret...

Have a great conversation.

[KateR]

I feel obliged to keep responding to your posts lest you accuse me of ignoring your points. I’ll say I blame Brexit to keep you happy eh?

[martin_p]

[KateR]

[JohnMcGreal]

Trade deal negotiations with the US have been postponed until next spring.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13220 ... -biden/amp