The political leaders debate tonight.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:10 pm

If it was simply that May wanted to spend her time with real voters talking about positive Tory policies and how they'll benefit the country I'd understand her desire to skip the debates. However she's mostly been speaking with Tory activists, and spends most of her time slagging off the opposition. Her criticisms of Corbyn are sounding as hollow as her manifesto promises.

wickdkewlclaret · Post by **wickdkewlclaret** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:11 pm

dermotdermot wrote:It was a fairly neutral crowd but Corbyn's supporters will always make more noise. He didn't sway the audience. He was mundane.

Well he's been campaigning all day and night, so can be forgived for being jaded, but still pasionate as ever.

The crowd outside were less than neutral though weren't they!

Wokingclaret · Post by **Wokingclaret** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:11 pm

and that has never been done before........

taio · Post by **taio** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:12 pm

wickdkewlclaret wrote:The crowd outside were less than neutral though weren't they!

Why does that matter?

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:14 pm

testing

wickdkewlclaret · Post by **wickdkewlclaret** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:18 pm

Corbyn walked in there on a wave of total support from the general public, as the tories got jeered, it sums up the current situation quite nicely, and a reflection on what people are currently thinking.

An important point.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:20 pm

wickdkewlclaret wrote:Well he's been campaigning all day and night, so can be forgived for being jaded, but still pasionate as ever.

The crowd outside were less than neutral though weren't they!

Pity he wasn't more passionate about campaigning for the referendum. Travelled the length and the breadth of the country my arse.

DCWat · Post by **DCWat** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:22 pm

Hopefully the QT Friday programme will be a little more revealing. The continued shouting over one another made much of tonight's programme hugely frustrating. The presenter did little to control it.

taio · Post by **taio** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:23 pm

wickdkewlclaret wrote:Corbyn walked in there on a wave of total support from the general public, as the tories got jeered, it sums up the current situation quite nicely, and a reflection on what people are currently thinking.

An important point.

Labour 8/1 for most seats

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:27 pm

Does anyone take anything from these shows?
I honestly don't know anyone who has changed their voting intentions from any of the carry ons so far.
If anything, I think Labour may have drummed up support from people who wouldn't normally vote

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:31 pm

The odds on Boris becoming Conservative leader are shortening. I can't see Teresa May lasting many months, even if she wins. It's becoming apparent that she simply isn't cut out to be the leader of the Tories.

I don't think anyone can point to any examples as to where she's done a good job.

Clockwork Claret · Post by **Clockwork Claret** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:32 pm

taio wrote:Labour 8/1 for most seats

My tuppence..

-audience seemed anything but neutral. Not enjoying some of the partisan jeering and booing since brexit in these kind of shows.
-though Rudd did well, especially considering her personal circumstances
-Corbyn very tactical in turning up but that's all he offered
-overall I learnt nowt from it, almost like listening to a pub debate just before closing
-it won't effect the result, the Clegg effect was a one off not to be repeated without a serious gaff hence why incumbents don't want to risk it.
-Torys will win this election. If you think that's wrong buy some money with the bookies.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:33 pm

wickdkewlclaret wrote:Corbyn walked in there on a wave of total support from the general public, as the tories got jeered, it sums up the current situation quite nicely, and a reflection on what people are currently thinking.

An important point.

In the 1980s, the then Labour leader, Michael Foot had just come out of a packed, pre-election meeting of young enthusiastic labour party members. One of his team showed him the current disastrous opinion poll figures.

He said, "They can't be right, there were 2 thousand in there tonight."

His aide replied, "There's 50 million out there"

ksrclaret · Post by **ksrclaret** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:35 pm

Amber Rudd did a respectable job actually considering the hospital pass Theresa May gave her tonight, even more so considering she's grieving the loss of her father earlier in the week. That's utterly appalling from May, she's not fit to be let anywhere near a cabinet let alone at the head of the table and the country.

timshorts · Post by **timshorts** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:38 pm

Thought the Tories had turned into ukip and ukip have morphed into the political wing of the bnp.

Right_winger · Post by **Right_winger** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:40 pm

Anyone who thinks these audiences are neutral are on to plumbs.

You'd think that by the opinion on here corbyn and his band of rogues have huge support. He doesn't, he just has enough ideologists and young people with no life experience supporting him.

I can't say I'm a fan of May either but Like most I feel the Tories are the only party who will do a reasonable job in negotiations with the unelected bilderbergers

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:40 pm

It's funny how much some people hate Theresa May.
It would be good to live stream from these people's personal space as the election results come in

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:41 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:In the 1980s, the then Labour leader, Michael Foot had just come out of a packed, pre-election meeting of young enthusiastic labour party members. One of his team showed him the current disastrous opinion poll figures.

He said, "They can't be right, there were 2 thousand in there tonight."

His aide replied, "There's 50 million out there"

Ringo, I think it's obvious that the Conservatives are going to win.

Are you not a little bit concerned that it'll be Teresa May who will be leading the negotiations on Brexit when it's becoming obvious, day by day, that she's not really a good politician, let alone a good Prime Minister?

hampsteadclaret · Post by **hampsteadclaret** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:41 pm

40..dermotdermot..you said - 'Corbyn only turned up at the last minute to capitalise on her absence'

errr...yes..isn't that what he's supposed to do? - he is trying to win an election.

Then you say..'Corbyn still comes across to me as Fred Kite.

' Have you ever been to Russia, Mr. Kite?'

' No not yet. It's one place I'd like to go to though. All those cornfields and ballet in the evening.'

wtf ? - what has that bollo*** you just typed got to do with this election or Jeremy Corbyn?

It's only relevant in your own fevered brain.

- just desperate.

** thanks, I am well aware of 'I'm all right Jack'.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:44 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:In the 1980s, the then Labour leader, Michael Foot had just come out of a packed, pre-election meeting of young enthusiastic labour party members. One of his team showed him the current disastrous opinion poll figures.

He said, "They can't be right, there were 2 thousand in there tonight."

His aide replied, "There's 50 million out there"

Not relevant to how the polls stand at present though is it, with the most recent suggesting a hung Parliament.
That being said, I still predict that there will be an increased Tory majority.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:44 pm

Spijed wrote:Ringo, I think it's obvious that the Conservatives are going to win.

Are you not a little bit concerned that it'll be Teresa May who will be leading the negotiations on Brexit when it's becoming obvious, day by day, that she's not really a good politician, let alone a good Prime Minister?

Of course he's not concerned. He wants the hardest Brexit possible because he doesn't give a **** about the country or its people. He just wants to close the borders and kick anyone semi-foreign out.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:48 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Not relevant to how the polls stand at present though is it, with the most recent suggesting a hung Parliament.
That being said, I still predict that there will be an increased Tory majority.

That wasn't a poll it was a forecast. It does seem outlandish but the YouGov forecast is based on the same model that predicted a Leave win last year.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:49 pm

Right_winger wrote:
I can't say I'm a fan of May either but Like most I feel the Tories are the only party who will do a reasonable job in negotiations with the unelected bilderbergers

Totally ignoring the fact that Macron has just been elected by a large majority and Merkel is likely to secure a 4th term in the months ahead.
May will win, but she won't be backed by 50% of the electorate.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:54 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Totally ignoring the fact that Macron has just been elected by a large majority and Merkel is likely to secure a 4th term in the months ahead.
May will win, but she won't be backed by 50% of the electorate.

Not even close to 50%, which is why we need to get rid of this undemocratic electoral system we have and implement something like what the Tories and Labour parties actually prefer for their own leadership elections.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Wed May 31, 2017 10:55 pm

wickdkewlclaret wrote:'Amber Rudd did a fairly good job'

The popularity of Corbyn appeared far to much for Amber to take, and she wished she was against Abbott. It's worth noting Rudd got jeered numerous times by the neutral crowd. Good job.

Neutral Crowd...LOL

Corbyn finishes early on his allottment this afternoon, and decides he'll turn up, trying to point score over May. He needs to realise it's not about game playing, but running the Country...

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:00 pm

Spijed wrote:Ringo, I think it's obvious that the Conservatives are going to win.

Are you not a little bit concerned that it'll be Teresa May who will be leading the negotiations on Brexit when it's becoming obvious, day by day, that she's not really a good politician, let alone a good Prime Minister?

To be honest I think you're right. It becomes more apparent that her "shyness" is just not wanting to let people see she's a bit rubbish.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:05 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Not relevant to how the polls stand at present though is it, with the most recent suggesting a hung Parliament.
That being said, I still predict that there will be an increased Tory majority.

The hung parliament was one poll. A poll of polls would probably put the Tories at about 8%.

I was responding to the suggestion that Corbyn was welcomed in on a "tidal wave of the public". It wasn't the public it was a flash mob of Twitter/ facebook following party members.

I think you're right about the majority though.

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:11 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:In the 1980s, the then Labour leader, Michael Foot had just come out of a packed, pre-election meeting of young enthusiastic labour party members. One of his team showed him the current disastrous opinion poll figures.

He said, "They can't be right, there were 2 thousand in there tonight."

His aide replied, "There's 50 million out there"

Did Foot actually say that?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:13 pm

SammyBoy wrote:Did Foot actually say that?

I listen to LBC a lot and one of the journalists likes to quote the story regularly. I've no reason to disbelieve him.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:16 pm

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:18 pm

69......Hampers. Do try and curb this aggressive nature of yours. It really is most unbecoming.

Corbyn reminds me of Fred Kite and Fred Kite reminds me of Corbyn. If I choose to use a quote from the film that's up to me. It's as simple as that.

You, along with the 'members' are obviously happy with the Labour Party being hijacked by this faction. I, along with the vast majority of the PLP, am not. It's as simple as that.

Steve-Harpers-perm · Post by **Steve-Harpers-perm** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:20 pm

Clarets4me wrote:Neutral Crowd...LOL

Corbyn finishes early on his allottment this afternoon, and decides he'll turn up, trying to point score over May. He needs to realise it's not about game playing, but running the Country...

Yes you don't see the Tories messing about playing games they get on with running the country oh hang on a minute...

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:21 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:The hung parliament was one poll. A poll of polls would probably put the Tories at about 8%.

I was responding to the suggestion that Corbyn was welcomed in on a "tidal wave of the public". It wasn't the public it was a flash mob of Twitter/ facebook following party members.

I think you're right about the majority though.

John Curtice has been saying the young voters are the ones who will make or break this election. Historically they won't vote in large numbers but if Corbyn has enthused enough of them then the YouGov poll might be more accurate.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:21 pm

Inchy wrote:The problem labour has is many old school labour voters will agree with Corbyn on his plans to invest in public services, but cannot get over the immigration policy and therefore won't vote labour. It seems to be the main issues for some people.

Well, now is the time for those people to give their heads a serious wobble.

It's time those people asked themselves just how much more they're prepared to lose, and how much more Tory vandalism they're willing to accept in some desperate attempt to stop foreigners from coming to this country.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:24 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:The hung parliament was one poll.

It still wasn't a poll.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:27 pm

dermotdermot wrote:69......Hampers. Do try and curb this aggressive nature of yours. It really is most unbecoming.

Corbyn reminds me of Fred Kite and Fred Kite reminds me of Corbyn. If I choose to use a quote from the film that's up to me. It's as simple as that.

You, along with the 'members' are obviously happy with the Labour Party being hijacked by this faction. I, along with the vast majority of the PLP, am not. It's as simple as that.

It's funny because until Blair Labour was a left-wing party. Then Blair turned up and made it a centre-right party. But now that Corbyn's taking it back to the left-wing suddenly it's a "hijacking".

Wile E Coyote · Post by **Wile E Coyote** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:34 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Well, now is the time for those people to give their heads a serious wobble.

It's time those people asked themselves just how much more they're prepared to lose, and how much more Tory vandalism they're willing to accept in some desperate attempt to stop foreigners from coming to this country.

No , you're completly mistaken,
you think people should just dismiss immigration, and that its almost a side issue compared to the heavyweight matters such as if the railways are nationalised.
People should be concerned , young or old. Labour may well be right thinking on social justice and equality, but their inablity to have any backbone in such matters will be detrimental. Anyone who makes light of it in this era particularly, will not be seizing political power in the forseeable future.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:47 pm

In fairness, I don't think Labour are making light of it and I don't think their policy on immigration is particularly weak, despite what the right-wing press say.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:58 pm

Corbyn had to turn up. Labour are running a two-person campaign, and the other person is Diane Abbott.

ksrclaret · Post by **ksrclaret** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:59 pm

Corbyn was actually criticised tonight by the SNP and Lib Dems for speaking about how uncontrolled, exploitative migration has affected working class communities, so Labour have now recognised immigration as an issue.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:13 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:Well, now is the time for those people to give their heads a serious wobble.

It's time those people asked themselves just how much more they're prepared to lose, and how much more Tory vandalism they're willing to accept in some desperate attempt to stop foreigners from coming to this country.

Still banging that white handkerchief waving, sandal wearing, all Brexit voters are racist, drum I see.

You're f***ing mental.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:16 am

During the '83 election the Tories started out with a poll lead and increased it as the days went by. That's not happening in this election, and if anything the momentum is definitely with Labour. On the one hand the Tories have fought the election under Crosby's stewardship (he lost elections in Canada and London recently), and on the other Corbyn has come across better than many people had thought, and the Labour manifesto has given everyone a clearly different option to Tory austerity. Whatever the outcome the lazy mantra of Corbyn being 'useless' won't wash anymore.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:18 am

Someone said further up that the debate won't change anyone's voting intentions, but it has with someone I know - who used to vote Tory.

HatfieldClaret · Post by **HatfieldClaret** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:20 am

Not too worried about TM not taking part in the TV debates.

The TV debates have just become shouting each other down at times. Not very statesman like.

Jeremy 'come the revolution' Corbyn can put mobs outside venues just as they do outside the Tory party conferences; means nowt.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:31 am

Spijed wrote:John Curtice has been saying the young voters are the ones who will make or break this election. Historically they won't vote in large numbers but if Corbyn has enthused enough of them then the YouGov poll might be more accurate.

You only need to look at what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 to understand how vital the youth vote is and how it can change things. In 2010 they decided to give them their votes and it saw them enter government. Then they compromised away probably the most important issue to probably the vast majority of those voters by breaking their tuition fees promise and they were punished for it in 2015.

To give you an idea of how brutal it was, specifically the betrayal felt by younger voters, in 2001 the most likely age group, out of all 6 age groups) to vote Lib Dem was 18-24. (24%) They got 52 seats.
In 2005 the group most likely to vote Lib Dem was 25-34 (27%) which makes a bit of sense since the people from the 18-24 group who voted for them last time are now almost all in this group, but they were still going well with 18-24 (26%) and it was their second best age group. They got 51 seats.
In 2010 again the group most likely to vote LD was 18-24 (30%) and the second most likely to vote for them 25-34 (29%). They got 62 seats.
Then their coalition happened nd they broke their most important promise to those voters, and most of the others they had too.
In 2015 every age group punished the Lib Dems but none like the youth. For three elections in a row the two youngest age groups had been the two best groups for the Lib Dems, but in 2015 they were the two worst. Only 5% of 18-24 year olds and 7% of 25-34 years olds voted Lib Dem. They got 8 seats.

Turnout was up among the 18-24 too in 2010. Still ****, but it was at least 5% higher than in previous elections and it stayed almost the same (43%) in 2015. It's hard to see another reason why it climbed in 2010 other than the Lib Dems manifesto that was actually relevent to them, but there will have still been an element of "yeah, but they're not going to win" type thinking which will have kept some at home. Corbyn notwithstanding Labour are a whole different beast. They're one of the two parties that can actually win, and they have a left-wing manifesto even moreso than the Libs in 2010 so you can probably expect turnout among the 18-24 group to be higher still than in 2010. It won't be as high as the other groups, probably, but it's still a fuckton of votes in a group for which there is overwelming Labour support this time (69% last week's YouGov poll).

So i agree with John Curtice, but i'd also add that it all depends on two things, 1) if they actually turn out to vote, and 2) it also depends on how successful the Tory attempt at Seppuku is with their dementia tax u-turn and the scrapping of the pension triple lock because while Labout has a massive lead in youth support, the Tories have a very big (but not as big) lead in the 65+ vote, and our old people are stubborn ***** who will vote no matter what the weather.

HatfieldClaret · Post by **HatfieldClaret** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:33 am

IT, you really need to precis your arguments. Why use 50 words when 300 will do ?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:40 am

HatfieldClaret wrote:IT, you really need to precis your arguments. Why use 50 words when 300 will do ?

540

Do you ever look at a twitter post that has (1/3) in it to indicate there are two other related tweets and think "jesus, why the essay?"

hampsteadclaret · Post by **hampsteadclaret** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:44 am

89...stop talking rubbish will you dsr..I know that could be tricky but give it a go..in the last 24 hours I have seen John Mcdonnell interviewed, Barry Gardiner the same, and tonight on Newsnight I watched Emily Thornberry having ten minutes of spirited knockabout with Evan Davis.

I know the Tories are having a poor campaign, after handing out a dismal manifesto, and to use a phrase from Sky News twenty seconds ago, Theresa May is 'running scared' - a truly cowardly performance from her this week in being unwilling to show up tonight, sending Amber Rudd out instead even though Rudd's father died only a few days ago.

- great leadership that.

Tell the truth dsr and help to drag this election out of the playground/sewer.

HatfieldClaret · Post by **HatfieldClaret** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:53 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:540

Do you ever look at a twitter post that has (1/3) in it to indicate there are two other related tweets and think "jesus, why the essay?"

I can just see you sitting there counting the words....

I don't do Twitter, we all know what too many tweets make.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:57 am

dermotdermot wrote:Only at the last minute, IT. A tactical ploy.

If it was a tactical ploy, good on him. Putting the opposition on the wrong foot is as valid a tactic as it is in football.

Shows the Labour crew are far more on the ball than the Tories who are doing an incredible job of throwing what was a "gimie" away. They really need to turn it around quickly or they could be in for a battering.