Darthlaw wrote:I understand what you're saying but the downsides for the EU go far beyond logistics. Unfortunately I have to play the automotive card here but it's probably the most important one. BMW, AUDI, Mercedes, VW, Skoda, Seat, Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, etc, etc all have European workers who would lose jobs should sales fall as a result of a 'no deal' and 10% WTO tariffs. In their place we could see more Cadillac, Buick, Lincoln and all the other US manufacturers which Trump will be desperate to push at lower prices. You have to ask will the EU really hang the UK out to dry at the cost of all the jobs for their own people? If they would, is that really the type of organisation we should be desperate to stay entangled with?
Take Germany specifically - 14% of their cars are sold to the UK. Can their automotive industry sustain a massive impact in sales to the UK? Is Angela really going to nobble her own people just to stick the knife on us?
In terms of May's stance, it's similar to certain parties of the EU who seek to Punish the EU or say its going to be costly for the UK. It's all posturing and hot air from both sides but unfortunately in such a public negotiation all parties need to be seen as initially having the stronger hand.
Finally, to draw a comparison with your house buying example, It's like you need to sell a house for £1,000,000. One party who needs a house turns up and says they like the house, they do need a house, but they're willing to walk away and look at others if you're silly with your price. The next interested party chip up and explain they need the house and will definitely strike a deal with you. Which would you feel you had the stronger hand against?
The pain in the automotive sector is shared between multiple countries, even though Germany takes the main hit, on one side though whereas in the UK pretty much the whole industry would be gone (the majority of the UK plants are using components/materials from the EU, that wouldn't be feasible on a no deal basis).
There are much more fundamental issues with the no deal though, having no electricity in parts of the country as membership of the IEM ceases meaning that the electricity imported from France and the Netherlands stops.
I guess the house buying analogy depends on your viewpoint. I'd view it more as we've been renting a house and are now looking to buy it. The other houses that may become available aren't in the area or available yet. Rather than negotiating to keep a roof over our head, maybe rent a while longer whilst negotiating we've gone with "If we don't like the price we'll live on the streets and see what happens".
The whole "no deal" thing is as meaningless a soundbite as "brexit means brexit", it will never come to pass and all of the parties involved in the negotiation know that.
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