UK Car Industry Investment Plummets Due To Brexit

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:28 pm

So it's his opinon then, which is fine, but it's still an opinion, just like the finance industry had the view that we'd have a financial crash of epic proportions right after the Brexit vote.
It didn't happen though because their opinion which was apparently backed up with cold hard facts was wrong.

This person is entitled to his opinion BUT he isn't giving out all of the FACTS that you like so much.
Probably to suit an agenda.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:30 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Your opinions are wrong, by the way. Facts prove that.

Maybe, maybe not, but we will see in the future when more hybrid models are available.

If sales are still poor then you were right and I was wrong, HOWEVER if sales are strong and grow then you were wrong and I was right.

This could take a couple of years to prove though, I assume you won't be dead by then?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:35 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:That's your answer for everything, 'it happens'

It's happening in this case because of Brexit.

Domestic demand fell 14% in a year. British people now cannot commit to buying a new car, because of Brexit. They don't know if their employer will pull the plug in the next few years. Thy don't know if they will be able to afford to eat tariffed food. They don't know how much their mortgage payments will go up by with the inflation currently happening. They can't afford to go on holiday because of the terrible exchange rate on the desperate pound.

To coin a phrase

Wake up Sheeple.

This is not a difficult point, beehole. If you would stop glorying in your own supposed infallibility, and take a moment to think, even you would undersatand it.

You are giving a list of reasons why demand for new cars in the UK is down by 14%. Fair enough. Except that domestic demand is not down by 14%, domestic demand is down by 4%.

So what you should be giving reasons for is why people are switching from buying UK manufactured cars to buying foreign manufactured cars. And if then you want to say that that's because of fears of losing their job, or fear of food price increases, or mortgage rate rises, then go ahead - try and argue it.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:36 pm

Hold on dsr whilst he finds you a link to someone else's opinion...

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:44 pm

dsr wrote:This is not a difficult point, beehole. If you would stop glorying in your own supposed infallibility, and take a moment to think, even you would undersatand it.

You are giving a list of reasons why demand for new cars in the UK is down by 14%. Fair enough. Except that domestic demand is not down by 14%, domestic demand is down by 4%.

Domestic demand in the month dropped -14.2% to 31,421 units

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2017/10/uk-car-p ... ives-fall/

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:45 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:And how will that tax cut be paid for? Whose taxes will be going up?

I would phase out housing benefit over a period of 5 years. The £14 billion annual savings could be then used to decrease corporation tax and stimulate foreign investment into the UK.

Phasing out HB would also have two important benefits for our children/grandchildren. Residential rents (paid to mainly private landlords) would reduce significantly and house prices would 're-adjust' down to more realistic levels.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:47 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:My opinion is the same as the Chief Exec of your trade body: it's down to brexit.

That's what he said.

its still only an opinion and as such cannot be stated as a fact as you have done. Sid is offering his opinion and not stating it as fact, he is offering an alternative scenario which may or may not be correct. Either way, you cannot state that there is a downturn in the motor industry due to Brexit and state it as a fact because you dont actually know and neither does the head of the SMMT.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:00 pm

I suspect the head of SMMT does know but won't present alternative reasons because it doesn't suit the political agenda.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Why would the SMMT have a political agenda? It's not a union, it's a trade body.

It wants what is best for its members, ie car manufacturers.

Brexit isn't what is best for the car industry, despite your own heavily weighted personal opinion, which you can't drop for one second.

Step back from your opinion and look at the facts, independently.

This is what you brexiters can't do, and it's why you often look stupid.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:17 pm

Car manufactures are currently terrified of the predicted financial crash looming 're pcp
Lots of people are driving around in new cars they cannot afford and it's all going to come crashing down at some point.
But yeah let's pretend it's Brexit fault because you are a hysterical remoaner

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:18 pm

Damo wrote:Car manufactures are currently terrified of the predicted financial crash looming 're pcp
Lots of people are driving around in new cars they cannot afford and it's all going to come crashing down at some point.
But yeah let's pretend it's Brexit fault because you are a hysterical remoaner

Is that addressed to the Chief Exec of the SMMT?

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:19 pm

did anyone really believe Brexit would not cause changes? I believe it's fairly obvious to anyone with half a brain that it would, most companies go through changes and see downturns before they see the effects and benefits of change. Stop looking and moaning about today or next year because we are leaving and it's a long term process, the benefits wont be truly known or even the failures until after 2020, you've years to wait yet, you going to moan every week at every bit of news. I can also understand because the same people will have been posting about bad news every time it happened for the last 30 something years aren't they? Am sure they had someone and something to blame for those failures to, which ever government or leaders, Americans are always an easy target, I mean letting bankrupt countries like Greece in, and the down tern in Spain and Portugal not to mention Italy were of course all wonderfully engineered and put in place by Europe as a whole.

Remoaners appear to me to be very good and copying and pasting someone else's opinion as long as it is bad, they have very little in the way of original thinking and off what the long term outcome maybe, just what yesterday mostly. It also needs to be addressed in terms of effects on individuals and also the country as a whole, you can not expect the effects of this change to be the same for a farm laborer in Cornwall as it is for an investment banker in London. Personally am trying to look at it as a country approach and if we are better off generally in leaving then those changes will trickle down to the population in some way or other. House prices/rents in London reducing is very good for some people right now, but not for those thinking of investing in property unless they take the long view and have the vision and guts to gamble that all will readjust and start to move forward again at some point.

There have been numerous opportunities for people as individuals to invest and make money since the vote and there will continue to do so as we move through the process, if car prices come down are you going to moan about, I mean you can always wait and buy a German/French built car in the near future for more money if that is what you are moaning about.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:22 pm

'Remoaners' don't need to rely on opinion. They can rely on fact.

Brexiteers cannot rely on fact, because no facts support brexit. So they're just left with opinion, and they base this opinion on lies spread by their own.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:24 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Why would the SMMT have a political agenda? It's not a union, it's a trade body.

It wants what is best for its members, ie car manufacturers.

Brexit isn't what is best for the car industry, despite your own heavily weighted personal opinion, which you can't drop for one second.

Step back from your opinion and look at the facts, independently.

This is what you brexiters can't do, and it's why you often look stupid.

So if HIS opinion is it's best to stay in the EU, which angle is he going to push?

How do you know Brexit won't be what's best, could you provide an absolute fact that it won't be?
No, because it hasn't happened yet, until it does it's all opinion and conjecture, just like a predicted financial implosion was.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:25 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:'Remoaners' don't need to rely on opinion. They can rely on fact.

Brexiteers cannot rely on fact, because no facts support brexit. So they're just left with opinion, and they base this opinion on lies spread by their own.

No facts support Brexit, so by that logic no facts can say it's a bad thing either because it hasn't happened yet.

Good, glad we've cleared it up.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:28 pm

Sidney1st wrote:So if HIS opinion is it's best to stay in the EU, which angle is he going to push?

How do you know Brexit won't be what's best, could you provide an absolute fact that it won't be?
No, because it hasn't happened yet, until it does it's all opinion and conjecture, just like a predicted financial implosion was.

The Chief Exec, speaking on behalf of his members (like Jaguar Land Rover, McLaren etc), would not be able to push his personal opinion. He represents his trade, YOUR trade, and the message he will push is what's best for his members.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:31 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Why would the SMMT have a political agenda? It's not a union, it's a trade body.

It wants what is best for its members, ie car manufacturers.

Brexit isn't what is best for the car industry, despite your own heavily weighted personal opinion, which you can't drop for one second.

Step back from your opinion and look at the facts, independently.

This is what you brexiters can't do, and it's why you often look stupid.

"Brexit isn't what is best for the car industry." - THIS IS YOUR OPINION

You then accuse brexiteers from not being able to step back from THEIR opinion and it makes them look silly!

Required-full length mirror for blinkered irrational Remoaner.

Stick to what you're best at. Disgracefully wishing millions of people dead, simply for holding a different opinion to yourself. What a "c" word.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:33 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:The Chief Exec, speaking on behalf of his members (like Jaguar Land Rover, McLaren etc), would not be able to push his personal opinion. He represents his trade, YOUR trade, and the message he will push is what's best for his members.

Ah McLaren.
The same place that's investing a lot of money into its current road car project, so would that imply they're worried much about Brexit?

I know their plans, the amount of investment and the timescale of the current project, I'm guessing you don't?

I can out fact you on McLaren, good luck with that one.

As for it being my trade, I just work here and my company has seen an increase in sales on last year, and previous years.
If it all went wrong I'd find another job easy enough, but it won't so it's fine.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:40 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:"Brexit isn't what is best for the car industry." - THIS IS YOUR OPINION

You then accuse brexiteers from not being able to step back from THEIR opinion and it makes them look silly!

Required-full length mirror for blinkered irrational Remoaner.

Stick to what you're best at. Disgracefully wishing millions of people dead, simply for holding a different opinion to yourself. What c word.

I wasn't wishing anyone dead, I'm just pointing out the fact (there's that word again, fact), that a lot of brexit voters will not be here by the time the dust settles.

In your words:

Bring out yer dead!

Bring out yer dead!

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:41 pm

So the younger Brexiteers will be dying soon too then?

Bizarre.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:41 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Ah McLaren.
The same place that's investing a lot of money into its current road car project, so would that imply they're worried much about Brexit?

I know their plans, the amount of investment and the timescale of the current project, I'm guessing you don't?

I can out fact you on McLaren, good luck with that one.

As for it being my trade, I just work here and my company has seen an increase in sales on last year, and previous years.
If it all went wrong I'd find another job easy enough, but it won't so it's fine.

What engine is this McLaren road car using?

Hybrid?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:43 pm

[quote="UpTheBeehole]"Domestic demand in the month dropped -14.2% to 31,421 units"[/quote]
That means demand for UK made vehicles. If someone buys a new foreign car rather than a new UK car, the reasons are nothing to do with fear of losing jobs or being unable to afford food.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:44 pm

Power will come from a modified version of the 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... ormance-p1

Don't worry Sidney, found the answer for you.

Hoist by your own petard again I see

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:45 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:What engine is this McLaren road car using?

Hybrid?

The P1 is, but that is a hyper car built to prove a point, but their current range isn't.

However with a change in the market I expect the technology to be transferred over to the standard models they're doing.
Based on what was said to me on Tuesday I expect other things to be developing as their project progresses.

The investment being put into their project is staggering though and I can't see Brexit being an issue for them, but hey, what do I know....

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:45 pm

dsr wrote:[quote="UpTheBeehole]"Domestic demand in the month dropped -14.2% to 31,421 units"

That means demand for UK made vehicles. If someone buys a new foreign car rather than a new UK car, the reasons are nothing to do with fear of losing jobs or being unable to afford food.[/quote][/quote]

So how does the UK car industry progress post-Brexit? If we're already seeing a decline in the industry before anything is even sealed?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:47 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... ormance-p1

Don't worry Sidney, found the answer for you.

Hoist by your own petard again I see

Not really hoisted by anything but good effort.
See my other comment.

They've made the technology, it's proven to work in the P1 and now it's a case of breaking down and transferring it over.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:48 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:So how does the UK car industry progress post-Brexit? If we're already seeing a decline in the industry before anything is even sealed?

Well, seeing as we import half a million more cars than we export, and imported car prices will rise because of the double whammy of tariffs and exchange rates, they could sell more cars within the UK. There's a big market there to move into. As for exports, the tariffs will be at least partly offset by the exchange rate fall, so that market shouldn't change all that much.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:50 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Not really hoisted by anything but good effort.
See my other comment.

They've made the technology, it's proven to work in the P1 and now it's a case of breaking down and transferring it over.

So even though (according to you) people aren't buying petrol cars because new petrol cars will be banned from 2040, McLaren are releasing a 3.8 litre petrol car?

Bit silly, don't you think?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:50 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:So how does the UK car industry progress post-Brexit? If we're already seeing a decline in the industry before anything is even sealed?

BMW Mini plant in Oxford is going to be re-tooled to build the new electric model.

Other companies will eventually do the same.

It's called progress and there could be casualties , but that's the norm in the car industry, always has been ever since it began.

Hence PSA moving out in the 2000's, Ford leaving in 2006 etc.
Companies come and go, it's a FACT, those that don't evolve and adapt will fall by the wayside.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:52 pm

Sidney1st wrote:The investment being put into their project is staggering though and I can't see Brexit being an issue for them, but hey, what do I know....

i've no idea about the new mcclarens but going off what they've produced before, i'm guessing they aren't going to be be your average runabout are they?

i don't think brexit will be a big issue for the likes of mcclaren because they make cars for rich people.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:54 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:So even though (according to you) people aren't buying petrol cars because new petrol cars will be banned from 2040, McLaren are releasing a 3.8 litre petrol car?

Bit silly, don't you think?

Did I say all petrol cars?
No, I suggested it could be a reason for SOME people to wait.

People who can afford it will still buy super cars, they like to drive fast or show off etc.

However hybrid technology will be transferred over to super cars, I know this will be a fact.

The technology involved in the P1 Hyper car is far more advanced then anything out there with the exception of the Ferrari and Porsche equivalents.

That takes time to adapt to super cars.
When it's ready it will be released but in the meantime they will still sell petrol super cars because there is a market for them.

You're not helping yourself here because you know naff all about it.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:57 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:i've no idea about the new mcclarens but going off what they've produced before, i'm guessing they aren't going to be be your average runabout are they?

i don't think brexit will be a big issue for the likes of mcclaren because they make cars for rich people.

Upthebeehole decided to include them in this discussion for some reason, probably because he knows I'm waiting to hear about the result of my interview.
However this time it's just proving how little he knows about the industry.

They'll still face the same export issues etc because all their models are built in the UK.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:10 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Upthebeehole decided to include them in this discussion for some reason, probably because he knows I'm waiting to hear about the result of my interview.
However this time it's just proving how little he knows about the industry.

They'll still face the same export issues etc because all their models are built in the UK.

yeah i know but i think the gist of all this is that its the companies making cars for the average joe who will face problems. if people are buying less and the prices go up, thats not a good cocktail for the industry as a whole.

its like john redwood saying there are plenty of british car makers to buy from, when the only ones were morgan, caterham and mcclaren. still, if brexit means we all drive morgans about, bring it on.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:10 pm

anyway, blah, i'll leave you lads to your scuffle.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:12 pm

We'll all be able to buy Morgans when we're mega rich from exporting jam.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:14 pm

: Screenshot_2017-10-26-14-08-44.jpg (149.8 KiB) Viewed 2416 times

As per this statement, political uncertainty is a concern, BUT so are the emissions regulations and the very real fear of levies on diesels to enter cities or complete bans.
London have just introduced their charge for diesels older than 2007, that will no doubt change over time to include newer diesels when they realise the exhaust systems are toss.
Other cities have similar ideas in the pipeline.

Oxford have recently floated the idea of banning cars from the centre, I think it was mainly diesels, but I'll need to check.
Things are changing all the time, so it will have an impact on new sales.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:16 pm

Sidney1st wrote:
Screenshot_2017-10-26-14-08-44.jpg
As per this statement, political uncertainty is a concern, BUT so are the emissions regulations and the very real fear of levies on diesels to enter cities or complete bans.
London have just introduced their charge for diesels older than 2007, that will no doubt change over time to include newer diesels when they realise the exhaust systems are toss.
Other cities have similar ideas in the pipeline.

Oxford have recently floated the idea of banning cars from the centre, I think it was mainly diesels, but I'll need to check.
Things are changing all the time, so it will have an impact on new sales.

That's the exact same statement as I posted in post #122

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:24 pm

Difference is you've focused solely on the political aspect and stated it as FACT when it's an opinion of a chief exec.

You didn't mention his comments about emissions regulations etc.

Didn't help yourself there did you?

So all the stuff I said about hybrids, emissions etc was all relevant and you've ignored it to suit YOUR view...

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:27 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Difference is you've focused solely on the political aspect and stated it as FACT when it's an opinion of a chief exec.

You didn't mention his comments about emissions regulations etc.

Didn't help yourself there did you?

So all the stuff I said about hybrids, emissions etc was all relevant and you've ignored it to suit YOUR view...

There's a difference between 'hasn't helped' (emissions) and 'Greatest challenge' (Brexit). The Chief Exec's terms, not mine.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:29 pm

The mud on the Somme didn't help the British soldiers, but their greatest challenge was the Germans' guns

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:31 pm

Still an opinion though and all it's proven here is you've focused solely on one part of it to suit your agenda.

Well done there for falling over yourself in a rush to harp on about Brexit.

*Slow hand clap*

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:33 pm

Brexit is the greatest challenge of our times and yet we still don’t have any clarity on what our future relationship with our biggest trading partner will look like, nor detail of the transitional deal being sought. Leaving the EU with no deal would be the worst outcome for our sector so we urge government to deliver on its commitments and safeguard the competitiveness of the industry.

Still, you bang on about the mud, and I'll concentrate on the field artillery

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:36 pm

You'd be better off taking some time to learn about the industry first, you'd be able to put up a better fight.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:38 pm

Just concentrate on that mud Sidney, there's a good lad.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:42 pm

Will do, at least I know the industry you're banging on about.

You've clearly never learned from previous discussions when others have pointed out your errors.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:43 pm

I haven't made any errors Baldrick. I've provided data and facts showing that the uk car industry just suffered a 14.2% domestic downturn over the past year.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:54 pm

You did little or no research into reasons though.

Same when you harked on about potential plant closures ages ago and I provided multiple examples of plant closures this century and older ones.
It happens, it's the industry and it's a fact that over time as the industry modernizes plants close and/or move.
Ford and PSA this century left the UK, Rover went bust.

You're not a stupid person, I know that much, you just failed to do any research on the subject and when I've pointed out other factors you won't listen.
You've taken that person's statement as fact, or part of it, and tried bashing us over the head with it when there are people more in the know who can disprove large chunks of it.

End of discussion now, you aren't going to listen, but you're more than welcome to get the last comment in after this.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:58 pm

BOOM BOOM BOOM BOOM

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:05 pm

FFS chaps, just agree to disagree and move on eh, you've done this to death.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:06 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:I haven't made any errors Baldrick. I've provided data and facts showing that the uk car industry just suffered a 14.2% domestic downturn over the past year.

Hi UTB, did we establish what the cause of the downturn is?

Why would it be Brexit? It's not happened yet. Yes, we know it will happen (or start to happen) in March-2019, but usually when there ae things known to be happening in the future the consumer will "rush in now" to buy what is available and avoid the (expected) future price rises etc. This happened with house prices in 1988 - when double MIRAS was announced to be withdrawn in July that year - everyone who was planning to buy a house rushed in and house prices went up - and then the came down again after the change. It also happened early last year when the 3% extra stamp duty was announced to take place 1-Apr-2016. And, now with all the extra cost of stamp duty (in London/S.East) house prices are falling etc. etc.

A little earlier this year there was a lot of news about over lending on car finance, pcp. I guess there's been a slow down, maybe the financing offers aren't as enticing as they were, maybe some people are being turned down for financing - or being asked for a bigger deposit. So, car sales take a dip.

Then we've got all the environmental stuff, whether it's diesel emissions or all the talk of going hybrid/electric (put not enough charging points). Maybe it makes sense to wait and see what Philip Hammond does about diesel tax in his budget in a few weeks.

I'm not following the "new model" situations, but purchases will usually slow down if new models are expected in the near term. Again, with the hybrid/electric I'd expect a few new models in 2018/19.

I've never got too excited about a single month's trend when the product has a long life - so we should be looking at year-on-year, not September-on September (even if this is registration plate change - which, surely is less important than it used to be as we've been changing twice a year for several years now).

Another observation: Yes, I'd expect Nissan/Toyota to be in the UK to serve the EU market. But, JLR - I'd expect the majority of their sales are to USA and China. It's also reasonable to assume that McClaren will sell more P1s in the USA than any other markets. (Perhaps Sidney can correct me, if I'm wrong).