Hurricane Irma

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:42 pm

Currently on vacation staying just outside the Disney parks. We're as prepared as we can be. Not going out now until Tuesday unless we really have to.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:49 pm

joey13 wrote:The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the slightly cooler water from the Everglades will change the course of Irma to the North

Should do but the waters are currently slightly warmer off Florida s West Coast than The Gulf by Mexico and Centrally as Katia has churned up the deeper cold waters.
It is cooler by the Texas coast................?

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:53 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:A bit of macabre pride for us Europeans as our models are so far more accurate than the US models for this storm. US models had Irma's eye going up the east coast of florida while the European's had it heading more west. It's heading more west. Still going to **** things up on the east coast but now it looks like Naples, Venice and Tampa that's going to take the direct hit.

One of the things i didn't know but do now is that part of why our models are typically more accurate is because our models only do two forecasts a day versus America's 4. That means more computer time goes into them. It's not a big deal when the differences aren't that big like this storm but it mattered for Hurricane Sandy 5 years ago. the U.S. models had it turning back out to sea but the European models had it turning back into the U.S hitting NJ and NY, which it did.

Here's a video for the next time some ignorant moron whines "but models are inaccurate" or "anyone can model something when it's already happened". This is from 5th September and he shows how the models show the hurricane's forecasted path over the following 5 days.

Hi IT, can you help me with this? In the first para above you say European models are "so far more accurate than the US models for this storm...." Then you say "the next time some one (leaving out unnecessary adjectives) whines "but models are inaccurate..."

Are those two statements consistent? Or does the performance of "European" models v "US" models show that there can be differences in the degree of accuracy of models?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:04 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Erm yeah.... :-/ that'd be why I need the science.
Math says it's travelling at 280 degrees WNW and that''s not the direction of Florida

I can imagine you holding a calculator and screaming at it "SHOW ME THE SCIENCE!"

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:05 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:I can imagine you holding a calculator and screaming at it "SHOW ME THE SCIENCE!"

Not far off mate

Wile E Coyote · Post by **Wile E Coyote** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:18 pm

when they suggested evacuating florida, just where do they expect 20 million people to go?
even if its a lesser area that is endangered, who would want to go and let the looters have a field day.

joey13 · Post by **joey13** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:20 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Should do but the waters are currently slightly warmer off Florida s West Coast than The Gulf by Mexico and Centrally as Katia has churned up the deeper cold waters.
It is cooler by the Texas coast................?

Yes the west coast is still the gulf , the hurricane draws all its power from the warmth, personally I think it still could via more west than predicted.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:36 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi IT, can you help me with this? In the first para above you say European models are "so far more accurate than the US models for this storm...." Then you say "the next time some one (leaving out unnecessary adjectives) whines "but models are inaccurate..."

Are those two statements consistent? Or does the performance of "European" models v "US" models show that there can be differences in the degree of accuracy of models?

Differences in degree of accuracy, yes. But when certain scientifically illiterate contrarians and deniers say that "models are inaccurate" they're pretty much always complaining that models aren't precise. Even Irma didn't precisely follow the path of any particular model, and even if it did presenting just one sat of forecasts as accurate as Irma to make the argument that models are accurate isn't a complete argument but then I can show past hurricane forecasts and their actual paths to show that the vast, vast majority were broadly accurate. While all the idiots have to argue with is "but the models were all wrong" because none were precise.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:37 pm

Wile E Coyote wrote:when they suggested evacuating florida, just where do they expect 20 million people to go?
even if its a lesser area that is endangered, who would want to go and let the looters have a field day.

Never have kids!

NRC · Post by **NRC** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:40 am

Atlantic hurricanes, like any hurricane, though huge systems are really like leaves in a stream. Their route west to begin with is caused by the high that typically sits above Bermuda, and then they're impacted by the continental west-to-east airflow, and as that alters their direction it's further impacted by the position of the jet stream.

That Irma heads pretty much north, or even east north east after landfall is very unusual, and that can't be for any other reason than low pressure must be sitting to the west.

Looks like we get a huge escape here in central NC, but Asheville Claret will cop wind/rain.

All that said, the major event is tomorrow with the storm surges in the keys and the Floridian gulf coast. Forget the wind and rain, an 8-12 feet storm surge buries most everything there - look what happened with Harvey

Wile E Coyote · Post by **Wile E Coyote** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:55 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:Never have kids!

ta for the contraceptive guidance, but it is way off topic . a lot of your stuff is .

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:11 am

Having no connection to this event, I feel a sense of anticipation that's bordering on excitement. I know that is so wrong and I do feel incredibly guilty about it, but it doesn't change the feeling. Sorry.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:22 am

Saxoman wrote:Having no connection to this event, I feel a sense of anticipation that's bordering on excitement. I know that is so wrong and I do feel incredibly guilty about it, but it doesn't change the feeling. Sorry.

Possibly as close as you will get to understanding what it's like, watching your lot since the venky's took over

CaptJohn · Post by **CaptJohn** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:10 am

Saxoman wrote:Having no connection to this event, I feel a sense of anticipation that's bordering on excitement. I know that is so wrong and I do feel incredibly guilty about it, but it doesn't change the feeling. Sorry.

I have a considerable interest in this event as a villa that I own is right in the firing line. I accept your apologies and note your guilt but would like to leave you with an old Arabic wish; "May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your anus today!"

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:20 am

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 37546.html

I don't think it would be wise to shoot at what is considered an act of a god...but then I suppose it's better than shooting at the homosexuals who angered the vengeful god so much that it had to display its displeasure in such a malevolent fashion.
But then again if it turns out that there is no vengeful god and its all the Hurricane acting on its own then maybe a few warning shots across its bow might make it think twice and stop it in its path...coming from the scientific angle, actually 'shooting it down' seems like a ridiculous notion.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:07 am

CaptJohn wrote:I have a considerable interest in this event as a villa that I own is right in the firing line. I accept your apologies and note your guilt but would like to leave you with an old Arabic wish; "May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your anus today!"

To use an American phrase: when life gives you lemons make lemonade. What are you going to build on your nice plot of land after Irma?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:10 am

morpheus2 wrote:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 37546.html

I don't think it would be wise to shoot at what is considered an act of a god...but then I suppose it's better than shooting at the homosexuals who angered the vengeful god so much that it had to display its displeasure in such a malevolent fashion.
But then again if it turns out that there is no vengeful god and its all the Hurricane acting on its own then maybe a few warning shots across its bow might make it think twice and stop it in its path...coming from the scientific angle, actually 'shooting it down' seems like a ridiculous notion.

The only way to stop a bad guy with a storm is a good guy with a storm. If Blue Lab was here he could tell us where we can get a weather control device.

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:34 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:The only way to stop a bad guy with a storm is a good guy with a storm. If Blue Lab was here he could tell us where we can get a weather control device.

Those pesky Jooz.....sorry, Zionists will have one stashed away somewhere.

CaptJohn · Post by **CaptJohn** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:42 am

BurningBeard wrote:Currently on vacation staying just outside the Disney parks. We're as prepared as we can be. Not going out now until Tuesday unless we really have to.

Hey Burning beard, I'd love some updates from you as to how bad it gets around Disney as I have a villa close by Championsgate. Not there at present but very worried about this storm.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:14 am

joey13 wrote:Yes the west coast is still the gulf , the hurricane draws all its power from the warmth, personally I think it still could via more west than predicted.

I think it'll just maintain 280 - 300 WNW
Florida gets a glancing blow but that's massive in itself and the storm surge is obviously as dangerous as ever
Will the eye hit the mainland USA or will it dissipate in the Gulf

joey13 · Post by **joey13** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:14 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:I think it'll just maintain 280 - 300 WNW
Florida gets a glancing blow but that's massive in itself and the storm surge is obviously as dangerous as ever
Will the eye hit the mainland USA or will it dissipate in the Gulf

Can't see it dissipating in the gulf , it will only dissipate once it hits land

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:16 pm

The gulf is warmer than the open ocean over which it formed so it won't dissipate and if somehow every model is wrong about it heading north into the US and did head out into the gulf then it'd only get stronger.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 5:12 pm

Hi Capt.

Raining at present but no real wind to speak of. It's coming though based on the radar pictures. We're going to get easterly winds from the anti clockwise rotation as it draws up the West coast.

There have been tornado warnings in Osceola (where we are) and Brevard counties but not seen anything local to us.

Will update further if I can later on.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:40 pm

Still raining. Tornado warnings for Osceola and Orange counties but nothing local to us and winds are low at present.

Capt - all being well I'm happy to drive round to your villa when we venture back out on Tuesday to check it. We are only a few miles north in Windsor Hills so it would be a quick job.

Post the address if you are happy to and want me to do this for you.

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:46 pm

Totally overhyped. Knew the winds would reduce massively by the time it reached Florida. Compared to what the virgin isles got, its a non event.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:51 pm

Congratulations Saxo. Your contributions to this thread have confirmed that you're a lot weirder than I originally thought.

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:02 pm

BurningBeard wrote:Congratulations Saxo. Your contributions to this thread have confirmed that you're a lot weirder than I originally thought.

How was I to know there'd be a Florida resident on an east Lancs football team board? Stay safe, all the best. I'm pretty sure you'll be fine.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:14 pm

I'm not a resident, I'm on holiday with my family, but that's not relevant. Your thought process is weird as a fellow member of the human race. Check out the pictures of Miami - it's not even under the centre of the storm and it will be 5 times worse in Tampa and other affected West Florida coastal cities. It's totally different to the Caribbean islands due to ability to evacuate, infrastructure and so on

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:16 pm

I've viewed on world cams all over Florida, and I've seen as bad in Cornwall in recent times. It may get worse there but right now its nowhere near as bad as I though to justify the coverage.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:17 pm

BurningBeard wrote:Congratulations Saxo. Your contributions to this thread have confirmed that you're a lot weirder than I originally thought.

You obviously missed the time when he got sectioned on the previous board

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:21 pm

And equally tragic for the people affected, but the flash flooding in Cornwall wasn't on the same scale and didn't carry as great a threat to life. The worst is yet to come for Florida, including the area we're staying in.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:23 pm

Damo wrote:You obviously missed the time when he got sectioned on the previous board

Aye, that one passed me by.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:27 pm

Saxoman wrote:I've viewed on world cams all over Florida, and I've seen as bad in Cornwall in recent times. It may get worse there but right now its nowhere near as bad as I though to justify the coverage.

It's time.

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:52 pm

OK.. I know naaathing! Time to read up a bit more on the topic.. You have to understand, I was expecting nothing shy of Armageddon, Disney world crashing to the ground etc..

tally · Post by **tally** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:55 pm

Saxoman.......................you know nothing

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:14 pm

Saxoman wrote:You have to understand, I was expecting nothing shy of Armageddon, Disney world crashing to the ground etc..

Vicariously so...

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:21 pm

The story about the daft haporths shooting guns at the hurricane is incredible.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:49 pm

The even have a graphic. I guess this isn't the first time people have shot at hurricanes.

spadesclaret · Post by **spadesclaret** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:55 pm

Apparently a whole-food store in Alpharetta, Georgia, has been clamping the cars of Florida refugees because they've been using the car park without shopping in the store

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:59 pm

spadesclaret wrote:Apparently a whole-food store in Alpharetta, Georgia, has been clamping the cars of Florida refugees because they've been using the car park without shopping in the store

Georgia is quite Republican so they won't like refugees. But still, i don't believe that's true.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:41 pm

I suppose Saxo has to find something to arouse him on a boring Sunday night. What a complete and utter moron

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:58 pm

spadesclaret wrote:Apparently a whole-food store in Alpharetta, Georgia, has been clamping the cars of Florida refugees because they've been using the car park without shopping in the store

It's America, they would burn the store down before letting them do that

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:31 pm

Irma losing strength all the time as I'm hearing it.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:31 pm

FCBurnley wrote:I suppose Saxo has to find something to arouse him on a boring Sunday night. What a complete and utter moron

Seems to think it's a movie rather than something that involves real people and consequences.

Saxoman · Post by **Saxoman** » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:32 pm

As above.

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:15 am

You're right of course. Cat 2 hurricane, only up to 110 mph winds, nothing to worry about.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;–Simpson_scale

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:47 am

FAO Capt - hammering down now and winds starting to pick up significantly. Lowest pressure / worst winds in this area due 2-5 AM. Worst rain expected 10 PM to 2 AM.

gandhisflipflop · Post by **gandhisflipflop** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:49 am

BurningBeard wrote:FAO Capt - hammering down now and winds starting to pick up significantly. Lowest pressure / worst winds in this area due 2-5 AM. Worst rain expected 10 PM to 2 AM.

Just out of curiosity I have always wondered what happens to the theme parks at times like this. Surely they are built with these things in mind? Are they expecting major damage and/or closures?

BurningBeard · Post by **BurningBeard** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:03 am

Disney closed today and tomorrow. They were preparing the park yesterday for the storm whilst we were in there and had photos of the clean up infrastructure they have posted on the web.

gandhisflipflop · Post by **gandhisflipflop** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:10 am

Cheers. Stay safe