Hurricane Irma
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Currently on vacation staying just outside the Disney parks. We're as prepared as we can be. Not going out now until Tuesday unless we really have to.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Should do but the waters are currently slightly warmer off Florida s West Coast than The Gulf by Mexico and Centrally as Katia has churned up the deeper cold waters.joey13 wrote:The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the slightly cooler water from the Everglades will change the course of Irma to the North
It is cooler by the Texas coast................?
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Hi IT, can you help me with this? In the first para above you say European models are "so far more accurate than the US models for this storm...." Then you say "the next time some one (leaving out unnecessary adjectives) whines "but models are inaccurate..."Imploding Turtle wrote:A bit of macabre pride for us Europeans as our models are so far more accurate than the US models for this storm. US models had Irma's eye going up the east coast of florida while the European's had it heading more west. It's heading more west. Still going to **** things up on the east coast but now it looks like Naples, Venice and Tampa that's going to take the direct hit.
One of the things i didn't know but do now is that part of why our models are typically more accurate is because our models only do two forecasts a day versus America's 4. That means more computer time goes into them. It's not a big deal when the differences aren't that big like this storm but it mattered for Hurricane Sandy 5 years ago. the U.S. models had it turning back out to sea but the European models had it turning back into the U.S hitting NJ and NY, which it did.
Here's a video for the next time some ignorant moron whines "but models are inaccurate" or "anyone can model something when it's already happened". This is from 5th September and he shows how the models show the hurricane's forecasted path over the following 5 days.
Are those two statements consistent? Or does the performance of "European" models v "US" models show that there can be differences in the degree of accuracy of models?
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Re: Hurricane Irma
I can imagine you holding a calculator and screaming at it "SHOW ME THE SCIENCE!"BleedingClaret wrote:Erm yeah.... :-/ that'd be why I need the science.
Math says it's travelling at 280 degrees WNW and that''s not the direction of Florida
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Not far off mateImploding Turtle wrote:I can imagine you holding a calculator and screaming at it "SHOW ME THE SCIENCE!"
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Re: Hurricane Irma
when they suggested evacuating florida, just where do they expect 20 million people to go?
even if its a lesser area that is endangered, who would want to go and let the looters have a field day.
even if its a lesser area that is endangered, who would want to go and let the looters have a field day.
Re: Hurricane Irma
Yes the west coast is still the gulf , the hurricane draws all its power from the warmth, personally I think it still could via more west than predicted.BleedingClaret wrote:Should do but the waters are currently slightly warmer off Florida s West Coast than The Gulf by Mexico and Centrally as Katia has churned up the deeper cold waters.
It is cooler by the Texas coast................?
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Differences in degree of accuracy, yes. But when certain scientifically illiterate contrarians and deniers say that "models are inaccurate" they're pretty much always complaining that models aren't precise. Even Irma didn't precisely follow the path of any particular model, and even if it did presenting just one sat of forecasts as accurate as Irma to make the argument that models are accurate isn't a complete argument but then I can show past hurricane forecasts and their actual paths to show that the vast, vast majority were broadly accurate. While all the idiots have to argue with is "but the models were all wrong" because none were precise.Paul Waine wrote:Hi IT, can you help me with this? In the first para above you say European models are "so far more accurate than the US models for this storm...." Then you say "the next time some one (leaving out unnecessary adjectives) whines "but models are inaccurate..."
Are those two statements consistent? Or does the performance of "European" models v "US" models show that there can be differences in the degree of accuracy of models?
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Wile E Coyote wrote:when they suggested evacuating florida, just where do they expect 20 million people to go?
even if its a lesser area that is endangered, who would want to go and let the looters have a field day.
Never have kids!
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Atlantic hurricanes, like any hurricane, though huge systems are really like leaves in a stream. Their route west to begin with is caused by the high that typically sits above Bermuda, and then they're impacted by the continental west-to-east airflow, and as that alters their direction it's further impacted by the position of the jet stream.
That Irma heads pretty much north, or even east north east after landfall is very unusual, and that can't be for any other reason than low pressure must be sitting to the west.
Looks like we get a huge escape here in central NC, but Asheville Claret will cop wind/rain.
All that said, the major event is tomorrow with the storm surges in the keys and the Floridian gulf coast. Forget the wind and rain, an 8-12 feet storm surge buries most everything there - look what happened with Harvey
That Irma heads pretty much north, or even east north east after landfall is very unusual, and that can't be for any other reason than low pressure must be sitting to the west.
Looks like we get a huge escape here in central NC, but Asheville Claret will cop wind/rain.
All that said, the major event is tomorrow with the storm surges in the keys and the Floridian gulf coast. Forget the wind and rain, an 8-12 feet storm surge buries most everything there - look what happened with Harvey
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Re: Hurricane Irma
ta for the contraceptive guidance, but it is way off topic . a lot of your stuff is .Imploding Turtle wrote:Never have kids!
Re: Hurricane Irma
Having no connection to this event, I feel a sense of anticipation that's bordering on excitement. I know that is so wrong and I do feel incredibly guilty about it, but it doesn't change the feeling. Sorry.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Possibly as close as you will get to understanding what it's like, watching your lot since the venky's took overSaxoman wrote:Having no connection to this event, I feel a sense of anticipation that's bordering on excitement. I know that is so wrong and I do feel incredibly guilty about it, but it doesn't change the feeling. Sorry.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
I have a considerable interest in this event as a villa that I own is right in the firing line. I accept your apologies and note your guilt but would like to leave you with an old Arabic wish; "May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your anus today!"Saxoman wrote:Having no connection to this event, I feel a sense of anticipation that's bordering on excitement. I know that is so wrong and I do feel incredibly guilty about it, but it doesn't change the feeling. Sorry.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 37546.html
I don't think it would be wise to shoot at what is considered an act of a god...but then I suppose it's better than shooting at the homosexuals who angered the vengeful god so much that it had to display its displeasure in such a malevolent fashion.
But then again if it turns out that there is no vengeful god and its all the Hurricane acting on its own then maybe a few warning shots across its bow might make it think twice and stop it in its path...coming from the scientific angle, actually 'shooting it down' seems like a ridiculous notion.
I don't think it would be wise to shoot at what is considered an act of a god...but then I suppose it's better than shooting at the homosexuals who angered the vengeful god so much that it had to display its displeasure in such a malevolent fashion.
But then again if it turns out that there is no vengeful god and its all the Hurricane acting on its own then maybe a few warning shots across its bow might make it think twice and stop it in its path...coming from the scientific angle, actually 'shooting it down' seems like a ridiculous notion.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
To use an American phrase: when life gives you lemons make lemonade. What are you going to build on your nice plot of land after Irma?CaptJohn wrote:I have a considerable interest in this event as a villa that I own is right in the firing line. I accept your apologies and note your guilt but would like to leave you with an old Arabic wish; "May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your anus today!"
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Re: Hurricane Irma
morpheus2 wrote:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 37546.html
I don't think it would be wise to shoot at what is considered an act of a god...but then I suppose it's better than shooting at the homosexuals who angered the vengeful god so much that it had to display its displeasure in such a malevolent fashion.
But then again if it turns out that there is no vengeful god and its all the Hurricane acting on its own then maybe a few warning shots across its bow might make it think twice and stop it in its path...coming from the scientific angle, actually 'shooting it down' seems like a ridiculous notion.
The only way to stop a bad guy with a storm is a good guy with a storm. If Blue Lab was here he could tell us where we can get a weather control device.
Re: Hurricane Irma
Imploding Turtle wrote:The only way to stop a bad guy with a storm is a good guy with a storm. If Blue Lab was here he could tell us where we can get a weather control device.
Those pesky Jooz.....sorry, Zionists will have one stashed away somewhere.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Hey Burning beard, I'd love some updates from you as to how bad it gets around Disney as I have a villa close by Championsgate. Not there at present but very worried about this storm.BurningBeard wrote:Currently on vacation staying just outside the Disney parks. We're as prepared as we can be. Not going out now until Tuesday unless we really have to.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
I think it'll just maintain 280 - 300 WNWjoey13 wrote:Yes the west coast is still the gulf , the hurricane draws all its power from the warmth, personally I think it still could via more west than predicted.
Florida gets a glancing blow but that's massive in itself and the storm surge is obviously as dangerous as ever
Will the eye hit the mainland USA or will it dissipate in the Gulf
Re: Hurricane Irma
Can't see it dissipating in the gulf , it will only dissipate once it hits landBleedingClaret wrote:I think it'll just maintain 280 - 300 WNW
Florida gets a glancing blow but that's massive in itself and the storm surge is obviously as dangerous as ever
Will the eye hit the mainland USA or will it dissipate in the Gulf
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Re: Hurricane Irma
The gulf is warmer than the open ocean over which it formed so it won't dissipate and if somehow every model is wrong about it heading north into the US and did head out into the gulf then it'd only get stronger.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Hi Capt.
Raining at present but no real wind to speak of. It's coming though based on the radar pictures. We're going to get easterly winds from the anti clockwise rotation as it draws up the West coast.
There have been tornado warnings in Osceola (where we are) and Brevard counties but not seen anything local to us.
Will update further if I can later on.
Raining at present but no real wind to speak of. It's coming though based on the radar pictures. We're going to get easterly winds from the anti clockwise rotation as it draws up the West coast.
There have been tornado warnings in Osceola (where we are) and Brevard counties but not seen anything local to us.
Will update further if I can later on.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Still raining. Tornado warnings for Osceola and Orange counties but nothing local to us and winds are low at present.
Capt - all being well I'm happy to drive round to your villa when we venture back out on Tuesday to check it. We are only a few miles north in Windsor Hills so it would be a quick job.
Post the address if you are happy to and want me to do this for you.
Capt - all being well I'm happy to drive round to your villa when we venture back out on Tuesday to check it. We are only a few miles north in Windsor Hills so it would be a quick job.
Post the address if you are happy to and want me to do this for you.
Re: Hurricane Irma
Totally overhyped. Knew the winds would reduce massively by the time it reached Florida. Compared to what the virgin isles got, its a non event.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Congratulations Saxo. Your contributions to this thread have confirmed that you're a lot weirder than I originally thought.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
How was I to know there'd be a Florida resident on an east Lancs football team board? Stay safe, all the best. I'm pretty sure you'll be fine.BurningBeard wrote:Congratulations Saxo. Your contributions to this thread have confirmed that you're a lot weirder than I originally thought.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
I'm not a resident, I'm on holiday with my family, but that's not relevant. Your thought process is weird as a fellow member of the human race. Check out the pictures of Miami - it's not even under the centre of the storm and it will be 5 times worse in Tampa and other affected West Florida coastal cities. It's totally different to the Caribbean islands due to ability to evacuate, infrastructure and so on
Re: Hurricane Irma
I've viewed on world cams all over Florida, and I've seen as bad in Cornwall in recent times. It may get worse there but right now its nowhere near as bad as I though to justify the coverage.
Last edited by Saxoman on Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Hurricane Irma
You obviously missed the time when he got sectioned on the previous boardBurningBeard wrote:Congratulations Saxo. Your contributions to this thread have confirmed that you're a lot weirder than I originally thought.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
And equally tragic for the people affected, but the flash flooding in Cornwall wasn't on the same scale and didn't carry as great a threat to life. The worst is yet to come for Florida, including the area we're staying in.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Aye, that one passed me by.Damo wrote:You obviously missed the time when he got sectioned on the previous board
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Re: Hurricane Irma
It's time.Saxoman wrote:I've viewed on world cams all over Florida, and I've seen as bad in Cornwall in recent times. It may get worse there but right now its nowhere near as bad as I though to justify the coverage.
Re: Hurricane Irma
OK.. I know naaathing! Time to read up a bit more on the topic.. You have to understand, I was expecting nothing shy of Armageddon, Disney world crashing to the ground etc..
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Saxoman.......................you know nothing
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Vicariously so...Saxoman wrote:You have to understand, I was expecting nothing shy of Armageddon, Disney world crashing to the ground etc..
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Re: Hurricane Irma
The story about the daft haporths shooting guns at the hurricane is incredible.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
The even have a graphic. I guess this isn't the first time people have shot at hurricanes.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Apparently a whole-food store in Alpharetta, Georgia, has been clamping the cars of Florida refugees because they've been using the car park without shopping in the store
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Georgia is quite Republican so they won't like refugees. But still, i don't believe that's true.spadesclaret wrote:Apparently a whole-food store in Alpharetta, Georgia, has been clamping the cars of Florida refugees because they've been using the car park without shopping in the store
Re: Hurricane Irma
I suppose Saxo has to find something to arouse him on a boring Sunday night. What a complete and utter moron
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Re: Hurricane Irma
It's America, they would burn the store down before letting them do thatspadesclaret wrote:Apparently a whole-food store in Alpharetta, Georgia, has been clamping the cars of Florida refugees because they've been using the car park without shopping in the store
Re: Hurricane Irma
Irma losing strength all the time as I'm hearing it.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Seems to think it's a movie rather than something that involves real people and consequences.FCBurnley wrote:I suppose Saxo has to find something to arouse him on a boring Sunday night. What a complete and utter moron
Re: Hurricane Irma
As above.
Last edited by Saxoman on Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
You're right of course. Cat 2 hurricane, only up to 110 mph winds, nothing to worry about.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;–Simpson_scale
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;–Simpson_scale
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Re: Hurricane Irma
FAO Capt - hammering down now and winds starting to pick up significantly. Lowest pressure / worst winds in this area due 2-5 AM. Worst rain expected 10 PM to 2 AM.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
BurningBeard wrote:FAO Capt - hammering down now and winds starting to pick up significantly. Lowest pressure / worst winds in this area due 2-5 AM. Worst rain expected 10 PM to 2 AM.
Just out of curiosity I have always wondered what happens to the theme parks at times like this. Surely they are built with these things in mind? Are they expecting major damage and/or closures?
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Disney closed today and tomorrow. They were preparing the park yesterday for the storm whilst we were in there and had photos of the clean up infrastructure they have posted on the web.
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Re: Hurricane Irma
Cheers. Stay safe