Magic Numbers 2017/2018

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:22 am

Sidney1st wrote:There will be some tears on here from certain posters if we only finish 18th.

Imagine?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:55 am

Spijed wrote:Imagine?

Doh I meant 13th.

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:02 pm

Bump.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview#" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:42 pm

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:12 am

After 29 (28) matches
Bournemouth.......-5........21
Brighton...(28).....-3........22
Swansea.............-3........18
West Ham...........-6........18
Huddersfield........-6........18
Newcastle...........-6........17
Southampton.......-5........16
Palace.....(28).....-3.........18
Stoke................-5.........15
West Brom..........-6..........8

With Brighton playing Arsenal at home and palace at home to United we could see their magic numbers falla little further.
UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:32 am

On the 4th March last year with 11 matches to go the magic numbers of the bottom 6 were
Bournemouth.......30
Leicester.............30
Swansea..............30
Palace................25
Sunderland...........25
Hull....................24

One month later with 7 matches to go they were

West Ham........20
Palace............21
Hull...............17
Swansea..........15
Middlesbrough...13
Sunderland.......10

I think this puts into perspective the fantastic season we are having this year.
UTC

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:25 am

This is the first season with no tension for a long while. Nice to sit back, relaxed, and see how the others are going.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:01 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:After 29 (28) matches
Bournemouth.......-5........21
Brighton...(28).....-3........22
Swansea.............-3........18
West Ham...........-6........18
Huddersfield........-6........18
Newcastle...........-6........17
Southampton.......-5........16
Palace.....(28).....-3.........18
Stoke................-5.........15
West Brom..........-6..........8

With Brighton playing Arsenal at home and palace at home to United we could see their magic numbers falla little further.
UTC

That's the wrong end
Team Magic number
Manchester City 66
Liverpool 48
Manchester United 50
Tottenham Hotspur 46
Chelsea 41
Arsenal 33
Leicester City 25
Watford 24

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:05 pm

aggi wrote:That's the wrong end
Team Magic number
Manchester City 66
Liverpool 48
Manchester United 50
Tottenham Hotspur 46
Chelsea 41
Arsenal 33
Leicester City 25
Watford 24

I'll do the bottom half and you do the top half

UTC

box_of_frogs · Post by **box_of_frogs** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:45 pm

piston broke wrote:This is the first season with no tension for a long while. Nice to sit back, relaxed, and see how the others are going.

True!!!!!

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:13 pm

So is it 15,15 and 8 now for the bottom 3 with Palace to play both Stoke and WBA?

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:49 pm

All game week 29 fixtures completed...it all gets complicated shortly, with FA Cup ties and European dates clogging up the list..we now have three successive away games, against the " W's " , West Ham, West Brom and Watford.... " DaveManu2000 " will see this as a perfect opportunity to progress with 9 points and virtually cement our European place, whereas " KRBFC " will see nothing but doom and gloom...the truth, I suspect, will be somewhere between the two !!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

UTC !!

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:19 am

A win at Baggies could see us put them on zero.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:35 am

piston broke wrote:A win at Baggies could see us put them on zero.

wouldn't it be perfect to get a 0-4 away win !!!!!

PaintYorkClaretnBlue · Post by **PaintYorkClaretnBlue** » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:29 pm

West Brom need to win EVERY game and us lose EVERY game for them to go above us!!

I can’t see it happening really

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:31 pm

A draw at The Hawthornes would see them at ZERO!

PaintYorkClaretnBlue · Post by **PaintYorkClaretnBlue** » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:33 pm

Would it not see them negative??

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:37 pm

PaintYorkClaretnBlue wrote:Would it not see them negative??

A number of Up The Clarets contributors think BFC are the negative ones!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:16 pm

After this weekend, 30(29) matches

Watford...........-6.....18
Brighton...........-6.....16
Bournemouth.....-6.....15
Newcastle.........-3.....14
Swansea...........-5.....13
Huddersfield......-5.....13
West Ham........,-6.....12
Southampton.....-6.....10
Palace..............-6......9
Stoke......(29)....-3.....12 (still to play Man City)
West Brom.........-6.......2

This is looking good!!
West Brom could be negative and Stoke and palace could be on 6 by the time we play again.
Oh I love Magic Numbers.
UTC

Garnerssoap · Post by **Garnerssoap** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:19 am

Halfman halfbiscuit are warming up

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

What happens if/when West Brom reach this promised land known as zero?

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:17 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:What happens if/when West Brom reach this promised land known as zero?

They can't catch us. That is the essence of the magic numbers.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:24 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:What happens if/when West Brom reach this promised land known as zero?

They'll be relegated before then anyway.

In fact they're pretty much gone, team looks shot to pieces and Pardew hasn't got the magic touch required to motivate them.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:58 pm

Cannot be relegated before we need less than 0pts to be above them

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:24 pm

The Club finishing bottom will receive roughly £2m as a " Merit " payment from the Premier League, and it goes up by roughly £2m for each place with the Champions getting £40m...we got £9.7m last season. Each time a team hits zero in " Magic Numbers " we'll get another c.£2m..
The link below explains in detail, but if we do finish 7th, it'll mean an extra £17m into the coffers !! Yum,Yum !!

http://www.totalsportek.com/money/premi ... ize-money/

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:33 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if it's now mathematically impossible for us to be relegated with teams below us having to play each other, dropping points.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:49 pm

I'm looking on it as Magic Numbers to get another £2m in the bank. The time for working out relegation points has long since passed

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:12 pm

So zero means a team can't overtake us, but aren't necessarily relegated?

box_of_frogs · Post by **box_of_frogs** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:16 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:So zero means a team can't overtake us, but aren't necessarily relegated?

Essentially, that’s correct. However if only 3 teams go into the negative then all 3 would be relegated.

NRC · Post by **NRC** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:38 pm

the magic numbers are based on each team taking maximum points.

In that case we take 3 each off WBA and Stoke so and let's assume Stoke lose tonight) so Stoke can reach 48 points so their MN becomes 5, and WBA can reach 41 so their MN is -2

Stoke and CP also have to play each other. Assuming CP win that makes Stoke can only reach 45 points, so their MN becomes 0 on that assumption. If Stoke win it means Stoke's MN stays at 5 and CP can reach 51 points, so their MN becomes 8

WBA and CP also have to play each other. Assuming WBA win, that means CP can only reach 48 points so their MN becomes 5. If CP win, WBA's reduces by another 3 points to -5

In reality then, subject to us beating WBA and Stoke the real magic number worst case is 8 for Stoke, and the other two are less than that whatever the result

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:28 pm

NRC wrote:the magic numbers are based on each team taking maximum points.

In that case we take 3 each off WBA and Stoke so and let's assume Stoke lose tonight) so Stoke can reach 48 points so their MN becomes 5, and WBA can reach 41 so their MN is -2

Stoke and CP also have to play each other. Assuming CP win that makes Stoke can only reach 45 points, so their MN becomes 0 on that assumption. If Stoke win it means Stoke's MN stays at 5 and CP can reach 51 points, so their MN becomes 8

WBA and CP also have to play each other. Assuming WBA win, that means CP can only reach 48 points so their MN becomes 5. If CP win, WBA's reduces by another 3 points to -5

In reality then, subject to us beating WBA and Stoke the real magic number worst case is 8 for Stoke, and the other two are less than that whatever the result

Well thank you for that. It's now a whole lot clearer!!!

If a team is in negative numbers does that mean they're relegated or just that they are even further away from catching us than if they were simply on zero (which means they can't catch us).

NRC · Post by **NRC** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:32 pm

the MN measure is specifically against us. Southampton are not in the bottom three, but all three can catch Southampton based on Southampton's MN - so, negative numbers are simply as they pertain to which team you're measuring against, or several of the bottom of the division would ALL be relegated if we looked at Citeh's MN

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:50 pm

So because it's all relative and specific to us, zero means a team can finish level with us and a negative number means they can only at best finish behind us? -2 for example means they'd be 2 points adrift whatever they did?

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:07 pm

When a team gets to zero they can no longer finish above us as they will only be able to get a maximum of 1 point below our total at that point. If Stoke lose tonight then palace and Stoke both lose next weekend both their Magic numbers will be 6. If West Brom lose or draw their number will be 0 or -1 ( minus numbers don't matter as its all about getting them to zero after that we can forget them as they become irrelavent). The more teams on zero or below the higher we finish in the league. The one I want down to zero is Leicester as that would all but mean we'd finish 7th.
UTC

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:10 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:So because it's all relative and specific to us, zero means a team can finish level with us and a negative number means they can only at best finish behind us? -2 for example means they'd be 2 points adrift whatever they did?

Not quite if you look at the last update posted, post 12 this page, WBA are on 2 and their max points is 44. We are already on 43. So the magic number allows for GD.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:10 am

Week 30 all complete....whilst we don't play this week-end due to the FA Cup Quarter finals, West Brom will become the first Club to hit zero, if they fail to beat Bournmouth at Dean Court....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... /htmlview#

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:00 am

With the three bottom teams playing today
Bournemouth v West Brom
Huddersfield v Palace
Stoke v Everton

Liverpool v Watford

Looking further ahead to the next round of fixtures on 31st March

Palace v Liverpool
West Brom v Burnley
Arsenal v Stoke
West Ham v Southampton

Man Utd v Swansea
Newcastle v Huddersfield
Watford v Bournemouth

Hopefully we’ll see the bottom half of the table in single figures after these fixtures
UTC

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:04 am

Vince Fontaine wrote:With the three bottom teams playing today
Bournemouth v West Brom
Huddersfield v Palace
Stoke v Everton

Liverpool v Watford

Looking further ahead to the next round of fixtures on 31st March

Palace v Liverpool
West Brom v Burnley
Arsenal v Stoke
West Ham v Southampton

Man Utd v Swansea
Newcastle v Huddersfield
Watford v Bournemouth

Hopefully we’ll see the bottom half of the table in single figures after these fixtures
UTC

Even Watford could be nearly out of the equation if they lose today. 7 points behind with 7 to play and an inferior GD.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:25 am

In the last four matches the magic numbers have dropped by
Brighton.............28......-12.....16
Bournemouth ......32......-17.....15
Newcastle ..........26......-12.....14
Swansea.............25......-12.....13
Huddersfield........25......-12.....13
West Ham ...........28.....-16......12
Southampton........27.....-17......10
Palace................28.....-19......9
Stoke.................25.....-16......9
West Brom...........21.....-19......2

We’ve affected each team by 7 apart from West Ham 10 and Southampton 8
UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:39 am

A Liverpool win and a West Brom win today coupled with a win for us at West Brom and Bournemouth drawing at Watford on the 31st would put Bournemouth on 7 and Watford on 10 which should put us within touching distance of a top 10 finish.
UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:41 am

Looking at it again a draw would be the best result at Bournemouth today dropping each team by 2
UTC

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:08 am

Vince Fontaine wrote:Looking at it again a draw would be the best result at Bournemouth today dropping each team by 2
UTC

Although that would make Baggies the first zero I'd still prefer them to win today.
To not hit zero they have to win every remain match, it's not happening.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:31 am

Regarding WBA, it's best to just look at the league table and their remaining fixtures.

They're 8 points behind getting out of the bottom 3, but would probably need 9 points to climb ahead of Southampton. And WBA still have us, Man U, Spurs, and Liverpool to play in their remaining 8 games. For me, they're as good as down, so WBA to beat Bournemouth, for me. The only positive of Bournemouth winning, is perhaps WBA players thinking they're already down and so not putting in 100% effort against us.

PaintYorkClaretnBlue · Post by **PaintYorkClaretnBlue** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:02 pm

Mathematically, we can’t finish bottom

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:11 pm

PaintYorkClaretnBlue wrote:Mathematically, we can’t finish bottom

Bad result as we could have done with Bournemouth losing.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:12 pm

WBA now -1, Stoke 6 Palace 9 Soton and Udders 10

BabylonClaret · Post by **BabylonClaret** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:21 pm

FactualFrank wrote:Regarding WBA, it's best to just look at the league table and their remaining fixtures.

They're 8 points behind getting out of the bottom 3, but would probably need 9 points to climb ahead of Southampton. And WBA still have us, Man U, Spurs, and Liverpool to play in their remaining 8 games. For me, they're as good as down, so WBA to beat Bournemouth, for me. The only positive of Bournemouth winning, is perhaps WBA players thinking they're already down and so not putting in 100% effort against us.

Pretty much all the bottom sides have 3 or 4 out of the big six to play. It's how they react to playing sides around them. I was talking to a Terriers fan the other week who was convinced they'll stay up as they had some winnable home games coming up before their nightmare run in. They're really struggling now the crunch comes losing 2 of those already.

Stoke look doomed as well but do have experience for avoiding the drop with late runs, as do Swansea and Palace. West ham and Saints are usually where Brighton/Newcastle are or better by now so could struggle.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:28 pm

I think Palace will stay up and until Sparky arrived I though Soton would go down but maybe not so I think it is going to be one of Huddersfield or Southampton with Stoke and WBA

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:29 pm

After 4 matches played on Saturday
Everton...................19
Bournemouth............15
Watford..........-3......15
Brighton..................16
Newcastle................14
Swansea..................13
Huddersfield......-3....10
Palace.....................9
West Ham................12
Southampton............10
Stoke...........-3.........6
West brom.....-3........-1

Now with West Brom being minus in the past we have just not included them from now on but this season I think I'll keep the ones who are negative so in future we can compare how we are doing. With palace winning we will have to wait until April for the earliest we can be safe.
UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:52 pm

With regard to 7th place I guess the next round of fixtures is probably the biggest weekend we have left before the season finishes. With the following fixtures
Brighton v Leicester
Watford v Bournemouth
Everton v Man City

Palace v Liverpool
Man Utd v Swansea
Arsenal v Stoke

And of course

West Ham v Southampton

Lots of points to be knocked off should the results go for us.
UTC