Magic Numbers 2017/2018

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:06 pm

I know it's early but some teams Magic numbers have been affected by 19 points and that's after just four matches. I was just wondering if aggi or one of the other techy people on here could do one of those spreadsheet thingies.
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bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:10 pm

I've been waiting for this too .... Come on guys - work your magic......numbers.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:55 pm

So. everyone's magic number at the start of the season is 114 (i.e. 38 games x 3 points per game and no-one with any points on the board).

Interesting that, even at this very early stage of the season, the magic numbers for B'mouth and Palace have dropped to 95....that's a massive (almost) 5 points per game. Even those currently with 3 points - Leicester and now WHU - have seen their magic number decrease to 98 i.e. 4 points per game. (I'm assuming we'll have better goal difference than these teams...otherwise, add an extra point onto their magic numbers)

On average, from memory, last season, the magic numbers were dropping at a little over 3 points per game. At the current rate (if only it could be sustained...maybe it can??), we'd be safe after around game 29!!!!!! I think all that puts it into perspective just what an outstanding start to the season this has been.

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cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:03 pm

Can someone explain this in laymans terms?

I know it means points left available to win. But I dont know how you work this formula out, especially given the fixtures against each other etc which is probably relevant?

I am usually good with maths but its monday!

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:11 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Can someone explain this in laymans terms?

I know it means points left available to win. But I dont know how you work this formula out, especially given the fixtures against each other etc which is probably relevant?

I am usually good with maths but its monday!

At the start of the season - every team could potentially finish 114 points above us .... As the season progresses each team loses points.

Every team plays each other so each week 1 team HAS to lose points - the "Magic Number" is how many points above us each team can finish at that point of the season if we lose every game and they win every remaining game.

Try and follow the magic number til it hits 0 for teams which means they can no longer finish above us ....

So tonight West Ham gained 3 points but Hudds magic number would have fallen by 3 as that got beat and no longer have the WHU match to add any points.

If it was a draw then they would have both dropped 2 points ...if we beat a team though then they lose 6 points as we have gained 3 by beating them and they have a match less to pick up those 3 points and vice versa.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:11 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

As of posting, this does not include West Ham v Huddersfield..

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:37 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:I know it's early but some teams Magic numbers have been affected by 19 points and that's after just four matches. I was just wondering if aggi or one of the other techy people on here could do one of those spreadsheet thingies.
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Way ahead of you Vince, I'm surprised you waited this long
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... 49#p486149" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Same deal as last year, it should update automatically. I may copy the spreadsheet every 5 weeks (if I remember or someone reminds me). There are various snapshots from last season on there.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:10 pm

For those of you who love this....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:15 pm

Here's how the bottom 5 stand

Stoke -22...............93
Liecester. -23..........92
West Ham -23.........92
Bournemouth -24......91
Crystal palace -27.....88

This is while the Brighton match is in play (they lead 1-0) as I write this.

With one team under 90 I think we are doing ok
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:22 pm

Thanks aggi
I love magic numbers.
Hopefully next weekend will see at least 2 more clubs drop below 90
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thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:28 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Can someone explain this in laymans terms?

I know it means points left available to win. But I dont know how you work this formula out, especially given the fixtures against each other etc which is probably relevant?

I am usually good with maths but its monday!

It doesn't take account of matches between teams.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:48 pm

The magic numbers continue to drop at about 4 points per game. Still on for safety after game 29 (which is Everton at home, for those that are interested).............

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:45 am

After week 6, all sides played the same...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Chip Harrison · Post by **Chip Harrison** » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:25 pm

Clarets4me wrote:After week 6, all sides played the same...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Err...I thought I was starting to understand it a little bit until I read this.

Ric_C · Post by **Ric_C** » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:16 pm

Chip, this is how I see it

Points available = total number of points a team can get from the remaining games left (not including current points)
Max available = total number of points a team can get from the remaining games left
Magic number = The points Burnley would need to get to guarantee finishing above that team

Extrapolated points = Number of projected points based on season form as an average
Extrapolated points (last 6) = Number of projected points based on the last 6 games form as an average
Position is only relevant when teams have games in hand, but this is the projected final position.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:29 pm

click on the post 13 link, for an update, all having played 7 games.....

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:25 pm

Bottom 6
Sorry 7
All under 90
After 7 matches

Brighton -6............89
West Ham -3...........89
Everton-6...............89
Leicester -5............87
Swansea-6..............87
Bournemouth -5.......86
Crystal palace -6......82

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Garnerssoap · Post by **Garnerssoap** » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:27 am

That's a tough extrapolated season for Palace

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:46 am

So Palace won't be able to catch us in 14 matches!

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:27 pm

Magic numbers dropping by 4 points (or more) for the bottom 4 teams. At this rate, safety should be somewhere around game 28 or 29.

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:47 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I've copied this in because some of the links higher up took me to last season.

I've just learned if I lightly click the link it goes to last season.
If I hold it down and click on "open in new tab" it is the live table.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:34 pm

Weird, I'm not sure how that is happening.
There isn't a last season spreadsheet, this is the same one that's just carried on updating.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:20 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:Bottom 6
Sorry 7
All under 90

Brighton -6............89
West Ham -3...........89
Everton-6...............89
Leicester -5............87
Swansea-6..............87
Bournemouth -5.......86
Crystal palace -6......82

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Just been looking at the next 3 fixtures, which will take us to 10 games.

Palace
Chelsea home
Newcastle away
West Ham home

Bournemouth
Tottenham away
Stoke away
Chelsea home

Swansea
Huddersfield home
Leicester home
Arsenal away

Leicester
West brom home
Swansea away
Everton home

Everton
Brighton away
Arsenal home
Leicester away

West Ham
Burnley away
Brighton home
Palace away

Brighton
Everton home
West Ham away
Southampton home

Wth one or two of these bottom sides playing one another we can look forward to a couple of them being under 80 after 10 matches.

Utc

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:11 pm

aggi wrote:Weird, I'm not sure how that is happening.
There isn't a last season spreadsheet, this is the same one that's just carried on updating.

I was on my tab and it was, probably, taking me to a saved copy from the last time I opened it. Which on the tab was last season. Whereas the new window opened the updated numbers.

EDIT. Just found that the "week 6". tab is current, all the others are last season.

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:16 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote: Wth one or two of these bottom sides playing one another we can look forward to a couple of them being under 80 after 10 matches.

Utc

With three wins for Seans mighty Clarets they'll all be under 80.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:06 am

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

All teams now played 8 games....

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:26 pm

Here is a comparison of last season after 10 matches and this season after 8 matches.
2016/17 (after 10 matches)
Burnley 11 points
Middlesboro points 10 Magic number 83
West brom ..points 10 Magic number 83
West Ham ...points 10 Magic number 83
Hull ............points 7 Magic number 80
Swansea...... points 5 Magic number 78
Sunderland.....points 2 Magic number 75

2017/18 (after 8 matches)
Burnley 13 points
Swansea........points 8 Magic number 86
Brighton........points 8 Magic number 86
West Ham......points 8 Magic number 86
Everton.........points 8 Magic number 86
Stoke............points 8 Magic number 86
Leicester........points 6 Magic number 84
Bournemouth ..points 4 Magic number 82
Palace...........points 3 Magic number 81

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thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:27 pm

That's numberwang.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:32 pm

Is numberwang good?
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tim_noone · Post by **tim_noone** » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:35 pm

I thought bingo was mind numbing.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:50 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:Is numberwang good?
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That's wordwang!

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:31 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

All teams now played 9 games....

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:35 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:Here is a comparison of last season after 10 matches and this season after 8 matches.
2016/17 (after 10 matches)
Burnley 11 points
Middlesboro points 10 Magic number 83
West brom ..points 10 Magic number 83
West Ham ...points 10 Magic number 83
Hull ............points 7 Magic number 80
Swansea...... points 5 Magic number 78
Sunderland.....points 2 Magic number 75

2017/18 (after 8 matches)
Burnley 13 points
Swansea........points 8 Magic number 86
Brighton........points 8 Magic number 86
West Ham......points 8 Magic number 86
Everton.........points 8 Magic number 86
Stoke............points 8 Magic number 86
Leicester........points 6 Magic number 84
Bournemouth ..points 4 Magic number 82
Palace...........points 3 Magic number 81

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Let's aim for 86 points. We'll be ok then.

Jel · Post by **Jel** » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:39 pm

Why can I only see week 6?

CnBtruntru · Post by **CnBtruntru** » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:52 pm

Don't like that puts Geordies 5th at end of season, not good for next game!

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:47 pm

Jel wrote:Why can I only see week 6?

Are you looking at the wrong tab. There is a snapshot at week 6 but the leftmost tab should be the current position.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:30 pm

Unless Everton come storming back with 20 mins to go (as I write), the magic numbers are looking like this....before we play Newcastle!!! If we get any points from the Newcastle game knock those off the magic numbers, below, for the up to date picture after Round 10 matches have been completed.

Swansea 80
Everton 80
B'mouth 79
Palace 76

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:18 pm

After all teams have played 10 games.....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Happy days !!

CnBtruntru · Post by **CnBtruntru** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:47 pm

CnBtruntru wrote:Don't like that puts Geordies 5th at end of season, not good for next game!

Good result for us tonight, Geordies can go and extrapolate

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 4:46 pm

I've snapshotted it at Week 10. For those who want to compare:

2016-17

: 16-17.JPG (69.92 KiB) Viewed 8893 times

2017-18

: 17-18.JPG (72.39 KiB) Viewed 8893 times

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:07 pm

Far too early for this I know but the 7th place this year means there are more clubs below us playing each other every week. 6 wins & 6 draws, from 28 matches, gives us 40 points, that'll do for me

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:03 pm

Next 5 matches

West Ham (78)
Liverpool home
Watford away
Leicester home
Everton away
Man city away

Swansea (77)
Brighton home
Burnley away
Bournemouth home
Chelsea away
Stoke away

Everton (77)
Watford home
Palace away
Southampton away
West ham home
Huddersfield home

Bournemouth (76)
Newcastle away
Huddersfield home
Swansea away
Burnley home
Southampton home

Palace (73)
Spurs away
Everton home
Stoke home
Brighton away
West Bromwich away

Once again a couple of the bottom sides play each other plus we can affect a couple of the sides directly.
Some teams could be under 60 by the time we've played 15 matches.
Happy times

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piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:43 pm

I've said from the beginning we need to be safe before any player gets a world cup head on.
Amazingly we might well be safe early.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:57 am

So we are reducing the magic numbers by around 3.7 points per game (against the current third bottom club in the table).

At this rate safety should be around game 30-31.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:19 am

Looking at the league table, I bet you'd have got good odds at the start of the season on a Palace, Bournemouth, Everton bottom three after 10 games.

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:47 am

Palace on 70 now.

Could be 67 later today.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sun Nov 05, 2017 4:11 am

Goddy wrote:So we are reducing the magic numbers by around 3.7 points per game (against the current third bottom club in the table).

At this rate safety should be around game 30-31.

that's insane !

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:19 pm

Standings, after 11 games each...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:47 pm

That makes excellent reading.

MrTopTier · Post by **MrTopTier** » Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:35 pm

Like the fact, based on the last six results, we will finish above Manchester Utd.