Football's Magic Money Tree

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Chester Perry
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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:54 pm

Fascinating stuff - Research into the maths of the Premier League shows that if a club changes manager after more than 10 matches of the season it is probably too late: - From the Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/spor ... -n006fx9xg

I have used up my free articles for the week but you can have a read - maybe transcribe it here also

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Royboyclaret » Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:03 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:44 pm
There is speculation that Aston Villa could become the 1st Premier League club to breach FFP

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footb ... -sale.html

I am not so sure, anyone who has followed this thread regularly over the last year will know that Villa's owners have pumped substantial amounts of cash into the club this year via share issues - I suspect they will do the same again if it is allowed by the Premier League
On further scrutiny I suspect Villa might be staring down the barrel with this one and a fate might well await them similar to that of their neighbours Birmingham City last year who were docked 9 points for similar misdemeanours.

So far as I can see the measuring stick over the three seasons ('17/'18, '18/'19 & '19/'20) will be £61m. That comprises two seasons in the Championship (£13m x 2) and this season in the PL (£35m).

Already they have clocked up a Loss in the '17/''18 season of £36m, so only £25m remaining over the subsequent two seasons. Clearly a difficult task even allowing for the somewhat dodgy ground sale. An interesting few months ahead for Aston Villa unless their owners are prepared to dig deep again.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:05 am

A fascinating piece on the interconnectivity of Investment, Technology and Sport - started with our old favourite Softbank and wound up (to the author's own surprise) highlighting a string of relationships between the key players that have been discussed on this thread over the last 2 years +

Simon Chadwick and Paul Widdup do their magic again

https://www.policyforum.net/sports-tran ... -networks/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:18 am

Arsenal look set to announce a new Manager in the morning, their on field and financial woes have been well documented this year, yet owner Stan Kroenke has the highest value sports empire in the world, Fenway or FSG (owners of Liverpool) are the 3rd most valuable - Interesting to note that CFG is the only football based empire to get into the Forbes top 10 following the Silver Lake Investment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozania ... s-at-no-1/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:15 pm

Well that was a longer break than imagined - missed quite a bit of news - including the ongoing Philanthropy down the road

anyhow back to business - seems like Derby may have cash flow issues while they await new investment and Wayne Rooney pulls 2 wages from them - are they going to have to sell some players with all the infrastructure having been sold already

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footb ... -time.html

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:23 pm

And now follows a tenuous link based on Stadium values - Wigan have failed in a bid to have they stadium devalued for business rates purporses following relegation from the Premier League - if they had won it would have caused further ructions for Derby, Villa and Sheffield Wednesday with the EFL no doubt

http://dunlopheywood.com/wigan-athletic ... -office-1/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:32 pm

Chelsea's financial results show the cost of missing out on the Champions League

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2019/ ... al-results

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:46 pm

Saturday's FA Cup opponents Peterborough Utd - publish their 2018-19 financial results - this is a club that follow a number of good practices including strong communication and openness with regard to finances - they did not have to publish this level of detail by law - the fact they have done so is worthy of our and the games thanks

@KieranMaguire takes a look

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/statu ... 2020557829

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:48 pm

just before Christmas the Premier League published their 2018-19 financial results - someone had a nice earner - can you remember who?

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/statu ... 5753495552

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:54 pm

The Price of football Podcasts have continued through the period including this on Boxing day

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/c ... 0460779595

and this today on Stoke City

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s ... 0461338106

while you listen to that one you could also look at @SwissRamble's assessment of Stoke's 2018-19 financial results

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/ ... 4134652928

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:44 pm

We have now had 3 matchday's where all Premier League games have been available live to viewers - no doubt the big 6 will be looking at the viewing figures (and associated data as to the viewers especially at Amazon) and will be thinking those are our fans we should have that income. @AndyHolt reminds us that the EFL are further down the road with streaming via ifollow and shows us that their are huge downsides for small clubs

https://twitter.com/AndyhHolt/status/12 ... 9964741632

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:13 pm

Fans in Morocco show us once again that the terraces are the last place where freedom of speech can be exercised - even when it is as organised as this

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/statu ... 8596099073

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:49 pm

@Marcotti with a fascinating insight into the transfer of Erling Haaland to Dortmund - player/agent power to the fore

https://www.espn.com/soccer/german-bund ... t-leverage

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:00 pm

This is a good interview with the majority owner of Lille and how they go about the challenge of competing against the likes of PSG and make use of the old empire connections in the African talent market and of course DATA

https://global.espn.com/football/french ... nce-a-club

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:29 pm

The latetest online edition of FCBusiness is out - always worth a read for those who like this thread

https://cloud.3dissue.com/6374/7271/131 ... tml?page=1

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:31 pm

The takeover at Charlton is complete - hope their fans have got what they wanted (and not just a new owner)

https://www.cafc.co.uk/news/view/5e0df5 ... n-athletic

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:48 pm

A compelling interview from Gary Neville on the changes resulting from the impact's of Football's Magic Money Tree

https://www.skysports.com/football/news ... -of-change

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:59 pm

Not specifically about football - but can easily be applied - Forbes.com looks at it's sporting insights for 2019

part 1

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/202 ... 19-part-1/

part 2

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/202 ... 9700194e3e

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:30 pm

The financial state of Brazilian club football is an utter mess and could see the collapse of some of it's biggest names in the near future - from the FT

https://www.ft.com/content/4ee18a4c-15c ... 03645ac406

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:37 pm

More from the FT - this time on how players choose a property - the Magic Money Tree Impacts are clear and obvious but as Gary Neville pointed out above - some of it is entirely logical

https://www.ft.com/content/df3a1c72-1a6 ... 63de1d73f4

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:59 pm

I have posted about this technology before and still remain unsure of how it can be legally applied and the impact on the home club's revenues if the away club is selling streaming rights and applying it (think Sunderland on ifollow - as per @AndyhHolt in the post above from today)

Barcelona extend the deal with virtual advertiser Supponor to home games

https://www.sportbusiness.com/news/supp ... barcelona/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:16 pm

I have posted numerous articles from LawInSport.com on this thread - convieniently they have collated an index page for all those relevant to football - it is an incredible resource

https://www.lawinsport.com/topics/featu ... and-agents

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:25 pm

UEFA has released a report on it's club licensing and FFP compliance and Investigation Activity for 2017-19 period

https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Do ... WNLOAD.pdf

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:43 pm

There is a general accepted rule that the media likes to build up people (or in this case a club and it's manager) especially those perceived as small fry/charming and then savagely take them down when it suits - the Mail has decided it is Eddie Howe's/Bournemouth's turn to be lambasted - how long before we are next

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footb ... -down.html

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by ecc » Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:18 pm

Happy New Year, Chester.

In my opinion it's taken a long time for the media to turn on Howe. I know opinions about him and Bournemouth are divided on here but they do spend some money. It is also true they have a lot of injuries and have had so for some time. I don't see them going down.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:42 am

I have posted regularly on this thread about injuries relating to lack of recuperation at the top level of the game - especially in context of proposals by the ECA and FIFA - Here the Telegraph reports in the spike in injuries in the Christmas period - is it no co-incidence that the clubs that consistently use the fewest players are the ones that appear to have come though the period unscathed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/20 ... arks-call/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:52 am

I believe that I have posted this before - but it is a useful reminder for those who want to understand how the transfer window works - and for the most part it is only when the official switch and paperwork is completed - everything else at are level has been done weeks if not months in advance - which is why Sean can be so sure in his statements - it is all explained in a series of podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t ... 1448955630

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:10 am

you may have read that Arsenal and Everton - with new managers to appease - are being linked with all kinds of players this transfer window. Regular readers of this thread will be aware that the financial position of both clubs is not create and both will be severely restricted by FFP, Sky at least have talked to someone who understands these things

https://www.skysports.com/watch/video/s ... anuary8217

the situation at Chelsea is different despite their most recent results - they are back in the Champions league and sold Hazard for a shed full of cash

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:13 am

the landlord of the London Stadium has posted it's financial results, which continue to show just how well West Ham have been looked after - some what say this should be deemed a state subsidy and investigated as such

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/statu ... 9441210368

the ROI could never be claimed as usuary
https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/statu ... 7364530176

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:09 pm

missed this last month - fans in Scotland have been protesting about ticket prices (remember they do not have the TV deals we have)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50813076

difficult for clubs this, as apart from a few examples, attendances are more comparable with league 1 in the EFL and the game is never going to develop or retain it's best players on that kind of income

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:18 pm


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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:28 pm

Before he wrote the above John Nicholson wrote this - on how expectation is killing the game - it is the corrosive downside (all to easily witnessed on this board of late) of Football's Magic Money Tree

https://www.football365.com/news/expect ... f-football

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:35 pm

The summer cash cow for Europe's biggest cups - The International Champions Cup - will be a smaller affair this summer as a result of the larger 24 team format European Championships

https://www.sportbusiness.com/news/inte ... t-in-2020/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:40 pm

Are Everton about to get another Billionaire investor? - there is no doubt that they need the money and the relationship with the current major shareholder is very well established

https://www.ft.com/content/396c358c-2d7 ... e4aa615551

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:51 pm

Just to prove my point about Everton needing the money - this from the Telegraph

Everton left reeling by record losses as gulf between Merseyside rivals grows
By Tom Morgan, Sports News Correspondent and John Percy - 5 January 2020 • 8:30am

Everton are preparing to announce the biggest losses in their history and will hand Carlo Ancelotti a smaller immediate transfer budget than Marco Silva’s ill-fated splurge in the summer.

Ancelotti will be assured funds remain available to bring in key players, with Juventus centre-back Merih Demiral high on the Italian’s wish list. However, the club will closely regulate spending for the current window and have plans to offload a host of fringe squad members.

Sources close to the club confirmed record losses would be released within days for last season, but maintained they were not at risk of breaching financial fair play rules and long-term investment in the squad and the club’s new stadium would not be affected.

The latest annual report, delayed from its normal December publishing date, will lay bare at the shareholders’ annual meeting this month how the gulf with close neighbours Liverpool has widened again.

While Sunday’s FA Cup third-round opponents broke the world record for the biggest pre-tax profit made by a football club during the 2017-18 financial year, Everton have suffered huge deficits – spending an estimated £450 million on players since Farhad Moshiri bought a 49.9 per cent stake in the club in February 2016.

Total player costs, including wages and transfer fees since Moshiri acquired effective control, had already doubled from £106 million in 2015/16 to £212 million in 2017/18 as investment accelerated.

The club recorded net debts of £66 million, down from a net cash position of £9.6 million in 2016/17. Over the same period, the club made a pre-tax loss of £13 million compared with a profit of £30 million a year earlier.

Everton already have the second highest wages-to-income costs in the Premier League, above Uefa’s 70 per cent spending “red line”, and have been unable to offset them by qualifying for Europe, which generated up to £40 million a season for the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal.

Unlike the two London sides, however, Everton’s financial management is no longer monitored by Uefa. Instead, the club are only required to fall within the remit of the Premier League’s FFP system. In England, profitability and sustainability rules allow clubs to lose £15 million over a rolling three-year period, but this is increased to £105 million if the owner puts in equity investments of £30 million a year, upon which Everton are heavily reliant. Costs have also been offset in recent years through profits on the sales of the likes of Romelu Lukaku, John Stones and Ross Barkley.

The as-yet-undisclosed losses have grown again to record levels in the past year, Telegraph Sport understands, with increasing player costs compounded by the club also stepping up investment in their new stadium project at Bramley Moore Dock.

The new figures will not take into account another summer of lavish spending in which the now sacked Silva recruited around £117 million of talent, with £84 million recouped in sales. Oumar Niasse is among a host of fringe players set to be shipped out.

Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert at Liverpool University, says the accounts illustrate how “management decisions have cost Everton dear”.

“In 2016 the sacking of Roberto Martinez and his staff cost £11.3 million and in 2018 Ronald Koeman and Sam Allardyce collectively cost £14.4 million,” he said. With Silva being halfway through a three-year contract when he was sacked, he will have left a significant bill in next year’s accounts too.

Despite huge losses, Moshiri’s ambitions remain unflinching and last month’s appointment of Ancelotti, a three-time winner of the Champions League, is seen as a critical coup in the attempt to balance the books again.

Ancelotti has said he is in no rush to enter the transfer market after being linked with Real Madrid midfielder James Rodriguez. There is talk of fresh investment from Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, who has built a £13 billion fortune from Russian metals, telecoms and technology, and is a longtime business partner of Moshiri.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:37 pm

An animated graphic of the losses before tax of clubs in the history of the Premier League - you will notice that only a few clubs don't feature

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1190378/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:51 pm

For balance here is another animated graphic looking at pre-tax profit in the history of the Premier League

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/statu ... 9794443264

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:05 pm

Silverlake's purchase of 10% of City Football Group continues to have an upward effect on Man Utd's share price - which some analysts still believe to be significantly undervalued - how long before a member of the Glazer family sell a few more shares to line their pockets

https://twitter.com/Lu_Class_/status/12 ... 2477227009

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Royboyclaret » Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:38 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:40 pm
Are Everton about to get another Billionaire investor? - there is no doubt that they need the money and the relationship with the current major shareholder is very well established

https://www.ft.com/content/396c358c-2d7 ... e4aa615551
Be intriguing to take a serious look at these potential record Losses when they emerge shortly. Also, if Usmanov does become involved alongside Moshiri, an interesting future is in store for Everton. They most certainly will not be short of funds. Makes our Mike's £62m look like pocket money.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Royboyclaret » Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:49 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:51 pm
For balance here is another animated graphic looking at pre-tax profit in the history of the Premier League

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/statu ... 9794443264
Brilliant to see that 'little old Burnley' appear at 4th in the list of Clubs earning pre-tax Profits in the Premier League. I think we're on £122m over those four seasons, '09/'10 £14m, '14/'15 £34.6m, '16/'17 £27.3m and '17/'18 £45.1m.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by ClaretAndJew » Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:50 pm

122 million profit.

**** my arse.

Phil Bardsley at right back.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by JarrowClaret » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:40 am

Found this very interesting wages paid from 1992/93 to 2018/19 from the excellent Kieran Maguire again.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1190706/
This user liked this post: Royboyclaret

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:00 am

The Price of Football Podcast now comes twice weekly - Monday's will be for listeners questions - Thursday's will be the established format

amongst other things @KieranMaguire looks at the future of Football Finance

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t ... 1482886394

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Royboyclaret » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:26 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:40 am
Found this very interesting wages paid from 1992/93 to 2018/19 from the excellent Kieran Maguire again.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1190706/
Fascinating graphs and might be of interest to some to place those Wage bills for Burnley alongside the Net Profit for the same years in Chester Perry's post further up the page.

Wage bills.....'09/'10 £22m, '14/'15 £29.4m, '16/'17 £61.2m and '17/'18 £81.6m.

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:29 am

I have posted about SOCIOS before on this thread, West Ham will soon go live with this "fan engagement" tool that Juventus were first to market with - what is it about? money - naturally - but basically:

Imagine a world where you actually had to pay money to vote on things like your club’s run out music, or next season’s kit.

Stop imagining. It’s here.

Your vote matters less than those who can pay more.

@theuglygame has long been monitoring this unwelcome intrusion into the game and the pitiful ways it is being used to make other unwelcome intrusions - goal music FFS

https://twitter.com/uglygame/status/1213510989729193990

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:38 am

Ooh look the betting industry has come up with a new way of extracting money from Joe public - a virtual football stock market, notwithstanding that you own nothing and nobody (and third party player ownership is illegal in the uk game) @theuglygame offers his take

https://twitter.com/uglygame/status/1213816988914606080

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by JarrowClaret » Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:15 pm

For anyone who wondered we were on 280 Mill just below Leeds and Portsmouth it is scary how much some of the Clubs in this list have paid out baring in mind how long the likes of Leeds, Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and Portsmouth have been out of the prem.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1190706/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:22 pm

Another animated graphic (@kieranMaguire has been busy over Christmas) this time on transfer spend over the life of the Premier League

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1192510/

It is where you find Bournemouth have spent £120m more than us, Brighton £45m more than us even Swansea £111m more than us

Chester Perry
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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:26 pm

There has been an awful lot of posts and threads recently about the transfer window and our club's method of going about it's business - here the ESK look at Ancelotti's squad/dilemma at Everton and analyses just what room there is (if any) for manoeuvre - this is the way it should be done

https://theesk.org/2020/01/02/january-or-june-sales/

I will add in this for good measure - these guys properly understand the situation and clearly outline the issues and process - why Everton will struggle to meet expectations of big signings in the Jan transfer window

https://theesk.org/2019/12/27/how-will- ... r-budgets/

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Re: Football's Magic Money Tree

Post by Royboyclaret » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:51 pm

JarrowClaret wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:15 pm
For anyone who wondered we were on 280 Mill just below Leeds and Portsmouth it is scary how much some of the Clubs in this list have paid out baring in mind how long the likes of Leeds, Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and Portsmouth have been out of the prem.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1190706/
Have to question the £280m, JarrowClaret.

By my calculations our four seasons covered by the graphs should total £194.4m. For a breakdown see my post #2644.

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