4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

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happyclaret17
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4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:08 am

this horse made my notebook earlier in season when running really well from a bad draw....now lower in the weights and I would imagine has been trained with the Ayr Western meeting in mind which was abandoned....local trainer loves a winner or 2 at this track......price this morning is 9/1....however betfair have an each way market where you can have first 3 or 4 places....I have taken 2.76 for the place....first 3 home.
got some strong darts bets for wednesday evening....must be done on betfair though so if you dont have an account you should get one as this will involve trading for a guaranteed profit should the games go as planned....utc.
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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by PaintYorkClaretnBlue » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:17 am

Have you backed it to win as well happy?

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:23 am

I'm on it.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by TeesClaret » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:39 am

Thanks Happy, I'm in. Need a winner - hopeless football bets this weekend.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Marney&Mee » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:00 pm

are you a decent jockey Diesel ?
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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:18 pm

Only 7 in the race so E.W only pays 2nd.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by UpTheBeehole » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:19 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Only 7 in the race so E.W only pays 2nd.
If you do as Happy says, you can Edge it on Betfair for more places, with an adjustment to the odds.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by tim_noone » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:24 pm

I think the jockey could be a factor. Not much experience and carrying a few kilos extra.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:33 pm

Marney&Mee wrote:are you a decent jockey Diesel ?
I've not much experience and to be honest I'm carrying a few extra kilos but I'll try my best and promise not to punch the horse.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:50 pm

we all know how dodgy racing can be....its not a straight sport is it....the system encourages cheating and no horse on any given day can be guaranteed to be trying etc but by betting at decent prices (5/1 plus) and getting the best price available you can make it pay....todays trainers horses have a habit of running inconsistently....perhaps by design....you always need to read between the lines with him and if the horse runs a shocker then dont be surprised or put off....just be on the horse in the right conditions when it goes in.
Keep plenty of dry powder for the darts though.....I expect to make money on the majority of matches by trading the price swings.....really like 3 matches tomorrow night....will post more on tonights matches later...utc.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:09 pm

tonights darts

Chissy 1.34
Thornton 4
2 players who are heavy scorers on their day...chissy is not one to take a short price about though....thornton can often beat himself...dont like his head shaking....if you must have a bet then perhaps back thornton at the price then take your profit if he gets a set up....very small stakes.

Gurney 1.6
Cullen 2.7
Gurney has the home support and is improving year on year....Cullen can be very dangerous on his day and great effort in last round to win....odds look about right so no real view.

Henderson 3
Norris 1.5
the big Scot Henderson obviously knocked out the out of form mvg in first round.....Norris would be the heavier scorer in the normal format but Henderson is a steady doubler who looks very ungainly with his rocking style.....Norris extremely streaky player who often throws darts away and if the doubles dont go in at either side of a leg he is likely to lose his cool ....I will take the 3 for Henderson and trade if/when he leads.

Barny 1.34
Beaton 3.9
Beaton is usually good in the first round if not favourite....he struggles when favourite....for that reason I will probably play to small stakes against Barny even though Beaton now finds himself in the 2nd round....if Beaton leads I will take a profit by cashing out.

note that all darts bets are trades....only occasionally do I not trade in running....its a great sport for trading once you get to grips with the players and their mentality....utc.
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cutsy123
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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by cutsy123 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:33 pm

20 on

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by cutsy123 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:37 pm

Last?

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by claretburns » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:38 pm

:lol: :lol:

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by UpTheBeehole » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:47 pm

Worst £20 I've ever spent

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by conyoviejo » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:48 pm

A fool and his money.. :lol:

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Marney&Mee » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:52 pm

Diesel Man, what happened??

Worry not folks, I have a tip for tmrw...and Claret Tony is the jockey..

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:54 pm

having watched the betting and the race I think the horse probably needed this run after 40 days off...worth chancing at the odds with only 6 to beat but as I warned earlier, Jim Goldie is a very tricky trainer.
very interested if this horse takes up his engagement at Redcar on Saturday over the straight mile....will be 20/1 plus...I think it will be lined up to win before the end of the month....he who laughs last and all that
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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by UpTheBeehole » Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:59 pm

You've made me enough money in the past Happy, these things happen.

Keep us updated.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by cutsy123 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:14 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:having watched the betting and the race I think the horse probably needed this run after 40 days off...worth chancing at the odds with only 6 to beat but as I warned earlier, Jim Goldie is a very tricky trainer.
very interested if this horse takes up his engagement at Redcar on Saturday over the straight mile....will be 20/1 plus...I think it will be lined up to win before the end of the month....he who laughs last and all that
Keep me posted if it runs at wkend

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:16 pm

I expect most bets to lose....not a problem at all with me....its just that many dont know how to bet and dont understand value or discipline.....took a chance on horses fitness today as it was Ayr and thought the trainer would have the horse right....the run suggested the horse was not right but the positive is that when the horse pops up it will be at really good odds.....the darts will produce really good money this week...bookies have made mistakes tomorrow and my stakes will reflect this....
VAN DE PAS is currently odds against to beat Gerwyn Price.
Van De Pas beat an extremely under rated and dangerous opponent last night in Reyes
Gerwyn Price beat the hugely over rated bottler Michael Smith who put up another tame effort.

I am trading this one as usual but will be keeping most profit if VAN DE PAS wins.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by mdd2 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:07 pm

:D As Private Fraser would say it needs Strong thighs and then it might win

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by pushpinpussy » Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:35 pm

let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by TVC15 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:01 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.
WTF are you talking about ?

There's only one pr-ick of a keyboard warrior on this thread - and that's you.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by PaintYorkClaretnBlue » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:15 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.
You’re talking b*llocks as usual. I’ve met happy, I know the amount of work he puts into his betting and I know that he knows his stuff.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by tim_noone » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:21 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.
Don't be like that..we have the darts to look forward to. :? :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Down_Rover » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:22 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.
Choice is yours. If you don’t want to read happy posts then dont. In fact he has posted many winning tips at good prices and I enjoy his posts.
You have to bear in mind in a horse race there are up to 40 horses in a race and therefore thousands of potential outcomes. I bet you get the majority of football results wrong when there are only three outcomes.
Happys para about value betting clearly went over yr head if you thought he was talking his way out of tipping a loser so better you post about subjects you know about

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by claretdj » Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:24 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.
I went to the Ripon family race day back in May & asked Happy for his selections that day & he gave me 4 winners out of the 6 races! Had a great day & walked away with over £200 that day. Cheers again Happy.. :D

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Dejavu » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:38 pm

Happy's tips are gold. Anyone that has followed him will have made a handsome profit over time. Welcome back!! I look forward to more solid tipping.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:46 am

pushpinpussy wrote:let me get this right. some poster posts a tip. sounds like he knows nothing about horses and people actually go out and back the horse. talk about mindless idiots in this world. nobody knows who this guy really is, but you are treating him like he is your best mate. he is a keyboard warrior who is winding you all up. get a grip. if i was him i would be embarrased posting his dross tips but he actually tries and talks his way out of it.
......
I have always been a big believer that drugs, alcohol and glue shouldn't be available to the under 12s personally....terrible things can happen, especially with prolonged use :D .

Tonights darts look really good for trading...as it was last night....but these prices tonight look wrong.

for reasons given yessterday I like VAN DE PAS a fair bit in the first match....he will put lots of pressure on Price who is at best an average type....with the way this tourny has gone van de pas could go close to winning the whole thing.....my nap of the night.

Suljovic v West
1.35 is way too short for Suljovic who is always erratic.....West playing well and a more consistent scorer....will trade the West price in running and expect to make a good profit here.

Whitlock v North
1.39 for Whitlock also seems too short as he is not playing as consistently as he used to.....only seen North once and he did ok....difficult to be too bullish about this one but will side with North to start with and take a profit if he leads.

no interest in Wright v King as prices look about right.

I expect to make really decent money from tonight....utc.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by UpTheBeehole » Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:38 am

pushpinpussy is the guy with a massive bee in his bonnet about the gambling industry isn't he?

Or am I mixing him up?

Claret Kitch
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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Claret Kitch » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:32 am

KEYBOARD WARRIOR MEANING:

"a person who makes abusive or aggressive posts on the Internet, typically one who conceals their true identity."

Pushpinpussy or Happy??

Keep up the good work Happy. As we all know, you can't win them all.

Oh, Pushpinpussy, "When the fun stops, Stop!"

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Twistedbyknaves » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:36 am

Any racing tips today Happy ?

I'm also looking ahead for tips for york races on Saturday 14th as having the day out there so if anyone has any it would be much appreciated. I've no idea about racing but like to have a bet when I'm at the races.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:45 pm

7 10 tonight TANSHEET is currently 4/1 ....won a hot race last time out....the race was full of decent stables....has the penalty tonight but potentially well drawn in 1 ( would prefer stalls 3 to 6 )....the fact that he is 4/1 would suggest that tonights race also has a few decent sorts....I have had a small ew bet but more importantly will be keeping tabs on the form of this race as I think it will be a race that works out well.....the market always speaks volumes at kempton....this could go off at 9/4 or 6/1 such is the volatility so wouldnt want to go balls deep.
if you rattle my cage the day before you go to york Twistedbyknaves I will take a look....will probably be lunch time on the day though before I will have had a proper look so make sure you can access the site when you are at the races....York saturday cards are always tough with decent prices winning often....make sure that 1 decent winner pays the expenses....each way betting generally best avoided unless its a real draw bias race....will advise on the day....utc.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Twistedbyknaves » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:09 pm

Thanks Happy. Much appreciated

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by cutsy123 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:47 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:7 10 tonight TANSHEET is currently 4/1 ....won a hot race last time out....the race was full of decent stables....has the penalty tonight but potentially well drawn in 1 ( would prefer stalls 3 to 6 )....the fact that he is 4/1 would suggest that tonights race also has a few decent sorts....I have had a small ew bet but more importantly will be keeping tabs on the form of this race as I think it will be a race that works out well.....the market always speaks volumes at kempton....this could go off at 9/4 or 6/1 such is the volatility so wouldnt want to go balls deep.
if you rattle my cage the day before you go to york Twistedbyknaves I will take a look....will probably be lunch time on the day though before I will have had a proper look so make sure you can access the site when you are at the races....York saturday cards are always tough with decent prices winning often....make sure that 1 decent winner pays the expenses....each way betting generally best avoided unless its a real draw bias race....will advise on the day....utc.
Been tipped elsewhere this and i already had brass down on it

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by pushpinpussy » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:25 pm

some people just never learn. ive got a tip for you dont gamble or take tips from someone who you dont know.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:36 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:some people just never learn. ive got a tip for you dont gamble or take tips from someone who you dont know.
Good tip.

Fortunately I haven't taken your tip, in retrospect, and won money.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by TVC15 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:51 pm

I've got a tip for you pussy

Stop trolling these threads - we are all grown ups and have seen enough from happy to know he knows his stuff and posts genuine tips - always caviated.

His strong tip for the darts just anielated his opponent despite starting as underdog.

Now do one please
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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by pushpinpussy » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:01 pm

im trying to save you all money. gambling is for mugs and youre all living up to that title very well. and by taking tips from some unknown quantity just beggars belief.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:05 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:im trying to save you all money. gambling is for mugs and youre all living up to that title very well. and by taking tips from some unknown quantity just beggars belief.
Fair do's.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Marney&Mee » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:10 pm

Are you riding it again on Saturday Diesel?

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:19 pm

Marney&Mee wrote:Are you riding it again on Saturday Diesel?
I wanted to but the trainer is a right mardy prick and has decided to let his daughter have a go on Saturday.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Dyched » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:22 pm

Marney&Mee wrote:Are you riding it again on Saturday Diesel?
By the looks of things I think the horse was riding Diesel

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:29 pm

Dyched wrote:By the looks of things I think the horse was riding Diesel
Harsh, I tried my best with the horse up at Ayr but the animal had obviously been fiddled with.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Marney&Mee » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:31 pm

Diesel wrote:I wanted to but the trainer is a right mardy prick and has decided to let his daughter have a go on Saturday.
Is she on Rosemary Conley's chip and pie diet as well?

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Diesel » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:38 pm

Marney&Mee wrote:Is she on Rosemary Conley's chip and pie diet as well?
She is indeed a big fat thing who won't do any worse than me.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by Westyorkclaret » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:12 pm

Pushin - just leave it eh ? I can make my own decisions based on info and insight given by HC. I don't need to be told of the risks involved, only accept them.

Continuing your posts will simply stop my fun (and probably that of others) by depriving me of HC's insight

Suggest you just stick to Sunday School - you will be safe there

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by happyclaret17 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:49 am

I think van de pas should beat Whitlock tonight....he only dropped 2 legs yesterday in winning 3 sets to nil and just didnt give Price a sniff....once again he is second fav which beggars belief....Whitlocks opponent ( North ) didnt really turn up and his lack of tv experience really showed....Whitlock is not playing anywhere near his best.......the same could be said for West who threw his rattle out of pram after failing to win first set after missing far too many doubles against Suljovic who again was very slow to start the game and threw erratically for first 2 or 3 sets.... king also didnt turn up with his a game and missed a good chance to beat Wright who was struggling with an elbow injury....Van De Pas playing the best of any of them right now and still 20 on betfair to win the whole thing which is also worth a small nibble.
no interest in the horses today just the darts bet....utc.

pushin....you need to get in touch with the queen and sir alex ferguson...I am sure they would enjoy listening to your views.

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Re: 4 30 Ayr...Strong Steps...9/1

Post by pushpinpussy » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:55 pm

The matter here is that somebody is trying to make betting look easy and justify it being the greatest thing in the world, when in reality people are just losing their money 80% of the time, which for some people happens to the point of their lives being ruined from bankruptcy. the majority of posters on this thread have got their heads stuck in the sand and are probably secret gamblers or unaware of their gambling addiction.

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