ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
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ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
This is a brilliant article from the BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41670800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is well worth a read.
Best bit of analysis & footballing insight I've seen on the BBC website ever.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41670800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is well worth a read.
Best bit of analysis & footballing insight I've seen on the BBC website ever.
These 4 users liked this post: CleggHall levraiclaret Anonymous South West Claret.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
already posted
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... =2&t=21731" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... =2&t=21731" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Yep but not with a clear thread title - hence I couldn't find it.
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
I read a comment from Mark Lawrenson last week that I thought made sense. He said that away from home we allow teams to come on to us because that is where we are most comfortable , with our defensive set up. However, as a result of that, we find it difficult to step up the pace at home. I think so far, our results have borne out what he was trying to say.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Thanks for posting Rowls, an excellent article telling the footballing world how it is at Burnley.
Analytical and broadly correct I guess, far removed from some Saturday evening posts on here!
Analytical and broadly correct I guess, far removed from some Saturday evening posts on here!
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Huh?
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Great article, hope only Burnley fans read it though!
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
There are a few people who post regularly on this site who should really read this article, and if at all possible try to understand it.
We live in hope
We live in hope
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
What don't you get?thatdberight wrote:Huh?
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
We’ve had 33 shots. 24 of them from inside the area, making us 1st in that stat from the 98 teams in the top 5 European leagues. Similarly with 5 shots from outside the area, which represents only 15.1%of our shot total, means only one team have a lower shot percentage from outside the box.
Basically we don’t shoot much, but when we do it’s from inside the box and therefore is more likely to result in a goal
Basically we don’t shoot much, but when we do it’s from inside the box and therefore is more likely to result in a goal
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
One stat that would perhaps highlight luck or not would be to look at clear goal scoring chances missed by the opposition. I can think of a couple against Everton where we were carved open and it was only very poor finishing from Sigmardson that meant it remained 0-0. If this was happening a lot I would say yes, we perhaps are lucky.
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
How can we be top in percentage of shots inside the area and not be bottom in percentage of shots from outside the area?Tall Paul wrote:What don't you get?
Is there a third category? (Bang on the line?!)
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Let's wait and see. If the xG stat is to be believed (and it seems it carries some weight within the industry as teams try to understand their performance and not just their result) then the answer is definitely, "Yes, we've been lucky".
According to those we should have;
Draws against Chelsea, WBA, Huddersfield, West Ham
All the rest are losses.
Of course, we may be finding a way to play that changes the xG methodology, in the same way the DLS method needs tinkering as the game and tactics change.
According to those we should have;
Draws against Chelsea, WBA, Huddersfield, West Ham
All the rest are losses.
Of course, we may be finding a way to play that changes the xG methodology, in the same way the DLS method needs tinkering as the game and tactics change.
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Good point. I don't know.Dougall wrote:How can we be top in percentage of shots inside the area and not be bottom in percentage of shots from outside the area?
Is there a third category? (Bang on the line?!)
One of the (many) problems with xG is that there are loads of different models and every one gives different answers. For example, one model had our xG scored against West Ham at 0.7 and another at 0.95, which is a difference of 50%.thatdberight wrote:Let's wait and see. If the xG stat is to be believed (and it seems it carries some weight within the industry as teams try to understand their performance and not just their result) then the answer is definitely, "Yes, we've been lucky".
According to those we should have;
Draws against Chelsea, WBA, Huddersfield, West Ham
All the rest are losses.
Of course, we may be finding a way to play that changes the xG methodology, in the same way the DLS method needs tinkering as the game and tactics change.
I think you make a really good point in your last sentence, we've consistently outperformed xG models for some time now, which indicates that we're doing something that they don't pick up on.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
i thought that as well but if they've taken the stats from whoscored then there is a 3rd category - shots in the 6 yard box.Dougall wrote:How can we be top in percentage of shots inside the area and not be bottom in percentage of shots from outside the area?
Is there a third category? (Bang on the line?!)
on their site its 3% in 6 yd box; 82% inside the area and 15% outside.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
It still doesn't make sense, because it looks like they've added the first two categories together to arrive at 85% of our shots being from inside the area.quoonbeatz wrote:i thought that as well but if they've taken the stats from whoscored then there is a 3rd category - shots in the 6 yard box.
on their site its 3% in 6 yd box; 82% inside the area and 15% outside.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Surely if you are shooting from within the '6 yard box' you are also shooting from within the 'penalty area' ?
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Agreed. But you'd struggle to find one that gave us 13 points and, even factoring in most fans' natural pessimism, this season has had many more, "How have they missed that?" than "We should have scored there". Long may it continue.Tall Paul wrote:One of the (many) problems with xG is that there are loads of different models and every one gives different answers. For example, one model had our xG scored against West Ham at 0.7 and another at 0.95, which is a difference of 50%.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
yep, its as though they've only done half a job; added together the first two together for us but not for anyone else.Tall Paul wrote:It still doesn't make sense, because it looks like they've added the first two categories together to arrive at 85% of our shots being from inside the area.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Uptheclarets 1 BBC 0
They've changed it so we are consistently 1st and 98th in the two rankings...
They've changed it so we are consistently 1st and 98th in the two rankings...
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
The fact Burnley are facing a lot of shots but not conceding a lot of goals has something to do with where other teams are shooting from too - 53% of the shots they face come from outside the area, another statistic that puts them in the top six in Europe, and a sign that often there is no way through their defence.
"They are incredibly hard to break down because, positionally, they all know where they need to be and also where their team-mates are
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
I wonder how they're squaring up these two tables they've produced in close proximity to each other?
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Its pretty remarkable how many sitters are missed against us which then results in us looking incredible defensively. Solanke missed from 3 yards at Anfield, was that good defending?
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Was the Antonio miss good defending? Or the multiple Everton sitters?
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
What Antonio miss are you talking about, and which Everton sitters?
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
Has this queered our pitch for Saturday? City 11 Burnley 0??????
Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
No, because our forwards will continue to be efficient. Maybe City 11 Burnley 12.mdd2 wrote:Has this queered our pitch for Saturday? City 11 Burnley 0??????
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?
I agree well worth a look.Rowls wrote:This is a brilliant article from the BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41670800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is well worth a read.
Best bit of analysis & footballing insight I've seen on the BBC website ever.