ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

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Rowls
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ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Rowls » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:42 am

This is a brilliant article from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41670800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is well worth a read.

Best bit of analysis & footballing insight I've seen on the BBC website ever.
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Chester Perry » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:47 am

already posted

http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... =2&t=21731" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Rowls » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:51 am

Yep but not with a clear thread title - hence I couldn't find it.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Chobulous » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:09 am

I read a comment from Mark Lawrenson last week that I thought made sense. He said that away from home we allow teams to come on to us because that is where we are most comfortable , with our defensive set up. However, as a result of that, we find it difficult to step up the pace at home. I think so far, our results have borne out what he was trying to say.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by CleggHall » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:35 am

Thanks for posting Rowls, an excellent article telling the footballing world how it is at Burnley.
Analytical and broadly correct I guess, far removed from some Saturday evening posts on here!

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by thatdberight » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:44 am

Screenshot_2017-10-19-11-37-29_kindlephoto-1060466984.jpg
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Huh?
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Carnsmerry12 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:49 am

Great article, hope only Burnley fans read it though!

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by iluva64 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:49 am

There are a few people who post regularly on this site who should really read this article, and if at all possible try to understand it.

We live in hope

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Tall Paul » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:53 am

thatdberight wrote:
Screenshot_2017-10-19-11-37-29_kindlephoto-1060466984.jpg
Huh?
What don't you get?

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by NRC » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:08 pm

We’ve had 33 shots. 24 of them from inside the area, making us 1st in that stat from the 98 teams in the top 5 European leagues. Similarly with 5 shots from outside the area, which represents only 15.1%of our shot total, means only one team have a lower shot percentage from outside the box.

Basically we don’t shoot much, but when we do it’s from inside the box and therefore is more likely to result in a goal
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Espia » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:47 pm

One stat that would perhaps highlight luck or not would be to look at clear goal scoring chances missed by the opposition. I can think of a couple against Everton where we were carved open and it was only very poor finishing from Sigmardson that meant it remained 0-0. If this was happening a lot I would say yes, we perhaps are lucky.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Dougall » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:23 pm

Tall Paul wrote:What don't you get?
How can we be top in percentage of shots inside the area and not be bottom in percentage of shots from outside the area?
Is there a third category? (Bang on the line?!)
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by thatdberight » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:49 pm

Let's wait and see. If the xG stat is to be believed (and it seems it carries some weight within the industry as teams try to understand their performance and not just their result) then the answer is definitely, "Yes, we've been lucky".

According to those we should have;
Draws against Chelsea, WBA, Huddersfield, West Ham
All the rest are losses.

Of course, we may be finding a way to play that changes the xG methodology, in the same way the DLS method needs tinkering as the game and tactics change.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Tall Paul » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:51 pm

Dougall wrote:How can we be top in percentage of shots inside the area and not be bottom in percentage of shots from outside the area?
Is there a third category? (Bang on the line?!)
Good point. I don't know.
thatdberight wrote:Let's wait and see. If the xG stat is to be believed (and it seems it carries some weight within the industry as teams try to understand their performance and not just their result) then the answer is definitely, "Yes, we've been lucky".

According to those we should have;
Draws against Chelsea, WBA, Huddersfield, West Ham
All the rest are losses.

Of course, we may be finding a way to play that changes the xG methodology, in the same way the DLS method needs tinkering as the game and tactics change.
One of the (many) problems with xG is that there are loads of different models and every one gives different answers. For example, one model had our xG scored against West Ham at 0.7 and another at 0.95, which is a difference of 50%.

I think you make a really good point in your last sentence, we've consistently outperformed xG models for some time now, which indicates that we're doing something that they don't pick up on.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by quoonbeatz » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:07 pm

Dougall wrote:How can we be top in percentage of shots inside the area and not be bottom in percentage of shots from outside the area?
Is there a third category? (Bang on the line?!)
i thought that as well but if they've taken the stats from whoscored then there is a 3rd category - shots in the 6 yard box.

on their site its 3% in 6 yd box; 82% inside the area and 15% outside.
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Tall Paul
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Tall Paul » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:27 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:i thought that as well but if they've taken the stats from whoscored then there is a 3rd category - shots in the 6 yard box.

on their site its 3% in 6 yd box; 82% inside the area and 15% outside.
It still doesn't make sense, because it looks like they've added the first two categories together to arrive at 85% of our shots being from inside the area.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by IAmAClaret » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:29 pm

Surely if you are shooting from within the '6 yard box' you are also shooting from within the 'penalty area' ?

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by thatdberight » Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:35 pm

Tall Paul wrote:One of the (many) problems with xG is that there are loads of different models and every one gives different answers. For example, one model had our xG scored against West Ham at 0.7 and another at 0.95, which is a difference of 50%.
Agreed. But you'd struggle to find one that gave us 13 points and, even factoring in most fans' natural pessimism, this season has had many more, "How have they missed that?" than "We should have scored there". Long may it continue.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by quoonbeatz » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:36 pm

Tall Paul wrote:It still doesn't make sense, because it looks like they've added the first two categories together to arrive at 85% of our shots being from inside the area.
yep, its as though they've only done half a job; added together the first two together for us but not for anyone else.

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by thatdberight » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:46 pm

Uptheclarets 1 BBC 0

They've changed it so we are consistently 1st and 98th in the two rankings...
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:54 pm

The fact Burnley are facing a lot of shots but not conceding a lot of goals has something to do with where other teams are shooting from too - 53% of the shots they face come from outside the area, another statistic that puts them in the top six in Europe, and a sign that often there is no way through their defence.
"They are incredibly hard to break down because, positionally, they all know where they need to be and also where their team-mates are

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by thatdberight » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:02 pm

I wonder how they're squaring up these two tables they've produced in close proximity to each other?
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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by KRBFC » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:10 pm

Its pretty remarkable how many sitters are missed against us which then results in us looking incredible defensively. Solanke missed from 3 yards at Anfield, was that good defending?

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by KRBFC » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:12 pm

Was the Antonio miss good defending? Or the multiple Everton sitters?

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by Tall Paul » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:16 pm

What Antonio miss are you talking about, and which Everton sitters?

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by mdd2 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:26 pm

Has this queered our pitch for Saturday? City 11 Burnley 0??????

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by dsr » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:31 pm

mdd2 wrote:Has this queered our pitch for Saturday? City 11 Burnley 0??????
No, because our forwards will continue to be efficient. Maybe City 11 Burnley 12. :?

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Re: ARTICLE: Is Burnley's Away Form Down to Luck?

Post by South West Claret. » Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:35 pm

Rowls wrote:This is a brilliant article from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41670800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is well worth a read.

Best bit of analysis & footballing insight I've seen on the BBC website ever.
I agree well worth a look.

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