todays racing from southwell

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:27 am

my favourite track and some interesting bets today
12 50...LIMERICK LORD should run a good race at a double figure price...not keen on the jockey but this horse acts well at the track and is ideally drawn....ew 1234 for me but not a strong bet.

120 SWOT ew 1234
was forced onto the slow rail last time behind a well handicapped gamble....drop in trip would seem to be fair enough as travelled well last time...again ew 1234 betfair but stronger bet.

150 DECISION MAKER...ew 123
another to race on wrong part of track last time...should go close here.

3 30 FURNICO FACTORS ew 123
yet another to race on wrong part of track last time....beat the high side of draw easily last time but there was a low track bias.

very hopeful of at least 1 winner today but as always....get the early prices....todays bets range between 9/2 and 11/1....utc.

Cleveleys_claret · Post by **Cleveleys_claret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:30 pm

Thanks Happy....done a 50p e/w Yankee and a 50p e/w accumulator for possible cash out purposes later on. Fingers crossed

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:17 pm

All placed - nice one

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:49 pm

All placed

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:57 pm

Limerick Lord came 6th

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:58 pm

cutsy123 wrote:Limerick Lord came 6th

Came 4th, wearing number 6

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:26 pm

How many of the 4 won?

Mrpotatohead · Post by **Mrpotatohead** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:57 pm

KRBFC wrote:How many of the 4 won?

None. Why do I get the feeling you knew that but want to make a point about gambling?

conyoviejo · Post by **conyoviejo** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:59 pm

Mrpotatohead wrote:None. Why do I get the feeling you knew that but want to make a point about gambling?

He likes to make a point out of everything the w@nker

Hapag Lloyd · Post by **Hapag Lloyd** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:14 pm

conyoviejo wrote:He likes to make a point out of everything the w@nker

Well said Alf

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:31 pm

Not really concerned about them winning or not - all placed means a profit on any each way combination of doubles, trebles, accum, yankee or lucky 15.

Yankee for me, so very nice thanks happy

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:46 pm

My Paddy Power only paid 3 places on the first of the tips

tim_noone · Post by **tim_noone** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:52 pm

KRBFC wrote:How many of the 4 won?

Ew was the suggestion,nice little roll up there.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:56 pm

How many bookies pay each way on 4th in a 10-horse race? it's not one I've ever come across - do you need to look for particular offers, or is it a bit more common nowadays, and what fraction do they pay?

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:08 pm

JohnMac wrote:My Paddy Power only paid 3 places on the first of the tips

Same

tim_noone · Post by **tim_noone** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:10 pm

cutsy123 wrote:Same

What odds did the treble pay??

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:14 pm

Slightly less than my overall stake. Better than now's.

Stupid speller correction!

Better than N OW' T

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:14 pm

There are NO bookmakers that pay each way 4th in a 10 runner race.

Anyone involved in the bet as an each way yankee will be paid 3x place doubles and an each way treble.

Returns will be based on whatever prices were taken when the bet was placed or settled at sp.

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:37 pm

tim_noone wrote:What odds did the treble pay??

I had all 4 in an ew acca.

Won nowt

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:44 pm

And you wouldn't, because the first one was not placed.

In an each way yankee the bet would have shown a loss at sp.

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:57 pm

If you went ew with betfair for the the first two races and took the advice happy gave, i.e. ew 1234, the ew yankee paid a profit return

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:13 pm

Mrpotatohead wrote:None. Why do I get the feeling you knew that but want to make a point about gambling?

I don't pay much attention to horse racing so I have no idea, just interested in how this guy does before potentially putting my money on donkeys.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:29 pm

The OP should use a point system when posting tips and keep track on a spreadsheet and prove he's providing profitable selections and not donkeys. Gambling affiliates were making hundreds of thousands a year off providing dodgy tips because they'd bank on up to 50% rev share with certain companies.

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:32 pm

No matter what advice happy gave, betfair nor any other bookmaker, will pay each way 4th in a 10 runner race.

In the race where Limerick Lord finished 4th the first three only would have been paid as placed.

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:46 pm

Just to clarify for KRBFC and anyone else that uses this board, the logic that happyclaret uses to arrive at his selections is second to none and today he was extremely unfortunate not to return a substantial profit. The reason he always recommends that early prices are taken is because almost always his selections are seriously backed on course before the race. If, as he suggests, the morning prices today ranged from 9-2 to 11-1 then a small profit was available by backing the selections each way in a yankee. By the off time of each race all those prices had dropped dramatically.

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:46 pm

Royboy - suggest you have a look at Betfair and the each way edge function. eg - the 9:00 (in 15 mins) you can get each way on the first 4 in a 6 runner race. The odds do go down, but do give you some insurance. An 8/1 horse in a ten runner race may do down to 13/2 if you opt for 4 instead of 3 places

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:59 pm

So tell us the reduced price you took on Limerick Lord this morning in order to return a profit on your each way Yankee?

And the other three prices for that matter.

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:13 pm

Do you have a natural distrust in what people say and what they do with betting ?

For your info in the order above - 15/2 - 7/2 - 4/1 - 6/1. with them all placed, paid close on 5/1

Suggest you do some research before questioning

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:18 pm

No distrust at all. Simply asked a reasonable question.

And here's another one, were all your selections paid at one quarter the odds?

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:19 pm

Royboyclaret wrote:Just to clarify for KRBFC and anyone else that uses this board, the logic that happyclaret uses to arrive at his selections is second to none and today he was extremely unfortunate not to return a substantial profit. The reason he always recommends that early prices are taken is because almost always his selections are seriously backed on course before the race. If, as he suggests, the morning prices today ranged from 9-2 to 11-1 then a small profit was available by backing the selections each way in a yankee. By the off time of each race all those prices had dropped dramatically.

Thanks for clearing it up, apparently I was being a d1ck for asking how good this guy is because I don't follow the horses.

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:23 pm

nope - standard racing term apply

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:25 pm

So a fifth the odds on all your selections?

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:30 pm

standard racing terms apply - figure it out

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:34 pm

I don't need to figure it out, I know exactly what racing terms are.

Westyorkclaret · Post by **Westyorkclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:39 pm

Weird - why ask then.

I'm surprised you don't know of online bookies who offer extra places if you are so well versed in racing betting terms

thedoge · Post by **thedoge** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:53 pm

I don't think you have a clue Royboy why not go on Betfair Exchanges and educate yourself.
Happy has given many winners over the years and if he says back a horse 1234 places I for one know the only place to do that in a 10runner race is Betfair Exchanges,also your not backing the win just the place 1/4 or1/5th the odds dosnt come into it as your backing against other people who make the odds.
Know jog on you ++++.

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:55 pm

We seem to be struggling here.

Sure we can agree on one thing though that happy's knowledge of all things horse racing is top drawer. A couple of professional punters I know can't speak highly enough of his selections. One particular Cheltenham (probably when we were on the old CM) his profit to a level stake over the whole meeting was better than any other tipster anywhere in the land.

thedoge · Post by **thedoge** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:57 pm

Well said I remember it well.

pushpinpussy · Post by **pushpinpussy** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:54 am

[quote="Royboyclaret"]We seem to be struggling here.

Sure we can agree on one thing though that happy's knowledge of all things horse racing is top drawer. A couple of professional punters I know can't speak highly enough of his selections. One particular Cheltenham (probably when we were on the old CM) his profit to a level stake over the whole meeting was better than any other tipster anywhere in the land.[/quote

The bookies must be quaking in their boots. I can't remember the last time he picked a winner. I for one don't trust this or any tipster.

Bordeauxclaret · Post by **Bordeauxclaret** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:12 am

So many tipsters out there, especially on twitter. Most are just made up.

Over a long period of time happy has posted his tips and then took the time to justify them.
If you don’t want to follow him then don’t. It’s your own choice but there are a lot on here who find his information useful.

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:36 am

Happy is top when it comes to tipping

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:38 am

Not sure if skybet pay first 4...all my business is done on betfair due to bookies accounts either closed or minimised stake....the advice was for first 4 on betfair for which there is a market on most races with 8 runners or more....the only one that really should have won yesterday was SWOT who again hung across to that slow rail and was narrowly beaten..this horse is well handicapped but now it has done that twice I am sure connections will be trying to get a wider run round the home turn in order to stay in the centre of the track as long as possible.....the other selections were in the money and I viewed them as fairly good cracks of getting a win but place at least sort of thing..the one in the first got 4th and certainly wouldnt have won even if a proper jockey was riding but may well have got 3rd....but thats part of the reason why the horse was 14s on the early betfair market....the baron horse that won over 5 furlongs yesterday ( the name escapes me ) is now a strong notebook horse and if that gets a handicap mark of 80 or less it would be very interesting if returning to southwell over 5 furlongs provided its NOT drawn on either slow rail as it was yesterday.....crossbars and posts yesterday for me and just returned stakes but made plenty of notes for the southwell meetings between now and march and there will be several decent priced winners to come between now and then.....once again though....get the best morning price as the all weather cards have very volatile markets.....quiet day for me today....the fav in the 1 05 should take the beating as the 2nd fav has very poor sire stats.....nothing to get excited about though and a day for keeping the powder dry at this stage.....although I have not looked at this evenings card yet.....any day southwell is on you need to check uptheclarets....I will try to get a post up before 8 30 am to take advantage of early prices....utc.

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:43 am

I would love Happy to keep offering tips on here but sadly the negative mob may drive him away.

There is no requirement to follow them or even open the thread if it isn't your thing but I suspect a few on here have been burnt because they think a tip is a result and any horse not winning is down to Happy and not the variables of racing.

At times this board is enough to drive Lemmings to safety.

conyoviejo · Post by **conyoviejo** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:48 am

JohnMac wrote:I would love Happy to keep offering tips on here but sadly the negative mob may drive him away.

There is no requirement to follow them or even open the thread if it isn't your thing but I suspect a few on here have been burnt because they think a tip is a result and any horse not winning is down to Happy and not the variables of racing.

At times this board is enough to drive Lemmings to safety.

I should think Happy knows better than to listen to the "negative mob". Long may he keep posting his selections .

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:53 am

conyoviejo wrote:I should think Happy knows better than to listen to the "negative mob". Long may he keep posting his selections .

'Viva la 'Appy'

tybfc · Post by **tybfc** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:02 am

Happy - post 42 must be the longest in history without a full stop in it. I nearly ran out of breath reading it!

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:46 am

Happy - post 42 must be the longest in history without a full stop in it. I nearly ran out of breath reading it!

......

my keyboard playing up again....coffee and keyboards not a good mix....re read it and thought the same...fortunately I am not giving tips on punctuation eh.

gary moore was interviewed on ruk last week and the interviewer quizzed him about his exciting novice hurdler SUSSEX RANGER....the interviewer asked if he was the best he has in the juvenile division....Moore said that " he was the best I have ran"....interviewer said...how many have you to run yet? Moore answered...just 1....interviewer delves deeper and asks him when the horse is due to run....Moore says next saturday at Asot.
first race tomorrow he runs ET MOI ALORS .....I dont know what price this will be but SUSSEX RANGER is rated 137 and improving so if ET MOI ALORS is in the triumph hurdle markets (not checked yet ) then may be worth a cheeky ante post bet if price is big enough....in the 2 00 later, BAYSTON HILL who I tipped when winning over this course and distance should go close again under the excellent Nicola Currie who claims 5lbs...backed him ew 123 at 5.7 on betfair.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:05 pm

JohnMac wrote:I would love Happy to keep offering tips on here but sadly the negative mob may drive him away.

There is no requirement to follow them or even open the thread if it isn't your thing but I suspect a few on here have been burnt because they think a tip is a result and any horse not winning is down to Happy and not the variables of racing.

At times this board is enough to drive Lemmings to safety.

.............

the variables is definitely the key thing in betting....not just horse racing...all sports....even the best thought out bets can be scuppered by imponderables....some bloke did a life changing accumulator the other week....last leg had jumped the last fence and clear of the field....jockey fell off.....can you imagine ?

they are calling the ground on the soft side at musselburgh today.....there is a favourite there today that needs good or faster ground....it is called ATTENTION PLEASE in the 1-15....I will be taking a time on the first race to see if the ground is as soft as they say......when this horse last ran at catterick it won but the ground was much quicker than the official going....

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:02 pm

I would still be crying

I was listening to TalkSport this afternoon and they mentioned another variable being introduced from tomorrow. W for horses that have had surgery to improve their oxygen flow.