Research on Brexit Outcomes

[UpTheBeehole]

So Carney releases another forecast and you expect us to take it as a given, when we already know he admitted getting it wrong about the aftermath of the vote.

Flip it over and try to see why some people won't take as gospel the opinions of experts.

Whose opinions do you value Sidney?

[JohnMcGreal]

Remain is based on guesswork...

As has been stated several times on here, no one can accurately know how it's going to end up.

Why do we bother doing research on anything, Sidney? What is the point of a study? What is the point of accumulating knowledge?

Tonight, why don't you try sticking your hand in the toaster while it's turned on?

I mean, all the evidence points to a burnt hand, but you'll never really know until you actually do it, will you? Who knows, if you ignore the doom-mongers and if you're really positive about it, you might make a big success of it.

Post your findings tomorrow. With the hand you can still type with, obviously.

[Sidney1st]

Whose opinions do you value Sidney?

For this one I'm willing to wait and see what happens, it's the great unknown because it hasn't been done so no one can accurately predict what's going to happen.

We already know you don't value the opinion of someone like me last time you sneered at me on the automotive thread, so I won't bother asking you.

I'm not going round in circles on this one with you again either.

You can carry on pasting links to other people's forecasts, opinions and guesswork whilst trying to ram it down the throat of anyone who's going with Brexit.
Then you can **** and moan that people aren't taking you seriously.

Ta ta for now.

[Bacchus]

I didn't say that did I?

I just pointed out that there is a large amount of guesswork with this, it hasn't been done before unless you can show me an example proving otherwise?

We could always just run around screaming about impending doom but until you can actually sit there and factually say we are knackered, what's the point?

So far as I'm aware nobody has ever attempted attempted to sail across the Atlantic on an ironing board. Does that discredit my forecast that it would be a bad idea?

Seriously, when almost all economists are saying the same thing maybe they actually have a point.

[Lancasterclaret]

Andy, part 1 of that (as I understand it, counts as a "Hard Border")

I'm not 100% sure, but as the twitter account is one of a very prominent Brexiteer, I don't think that is as close to what is required by both sides.

Still its a start though, and if they can make that unique to UK-Eire border with some modifications, it might be ok.

But lots of people who know a lot more about this than me (chiefly in Ireland) don't think its as simple as that, and as the Eire position will be the EU position, then thats where the issue will be.

[Sidney1st]

Why do we bother doing research on anything, Sidney? What is the point of a study? What is the point of accumulating knowledge?

Tonight, why don't you try sticking your hand in the toaster while it's turned on?

I mean, all the evidence points to a burnt hand, but you'll never really know until you actually do it, will you? Who knows, if you ignore the doom-mongers and if you're really positive about it, you might make a big success of it.

Post your findings tomorrow. With the hand you can still type with, obviously.

Research is fine, no issue.

It's when people take what's usually a guess and run with it as fact in an effort to make others fearful or to look stupid.

None of you can predict with any accuracy what's going to happen, but you're all more than happy to bash the brexit voters round the head with it claiming it's fact.
Then you wonder why Brexit voters don't want to listen.

Hardly any of you on here who want to remain want to sit and talk about it, you just want to bash brexit voters, call them names and dismiss their opinions whilst using other peoples opinions as facts in attempts to win the arguement...

[Sidney1st]

So far as I'm aware nobody has ever attempted attempted to sail across the Atlantic on an ironing board. Does that discredit my forecast that it would be a bad idea?

Seriously, when almost all economists are saying the same thing maybe they actually have a point.

So their guesses should now be taken as fact?

Carney got it wrong and admitted it yet you're still thinking he's going to be accurate?

No thanks, I'll wait and see.

[UpTheBeehole]

Sidney, whose opinions do you value?

[Quickenthetempo]

If only the remainer's realised that all this kerfuffle they're making is driving the country further into hard brexit, well that and the EU taking the mick.

[Bacchus]

So their guesses should now be taken as fact?

Carney got it wrong and admitted it yet you're still thinking he's going to be accurate?

No thanks, I'll wait and see.

You're dismissing all economic forecasts as guesses? No expertise, no understanding of the issues, no studying of data, no insight as to the consequences of various decisions that could be taken, all just guesswork? Frankly it's amazing that these people have highly paid jobs if all they do is wander around all day guessing at stuff.

Why do businesses waste their time budgeting? They might as well save the time and money and just ask the cleaner to have a guess.

[Quickenthetempo]

You're dismissing all economic forecasts as guesses? No expertise, no understanding of the issues, no studying of data, no insight as to the consequences of various decisions that could be taken, all just guesswork? Frankly it's amazing that these people have highly paid jobs if all they do is wander around all day guessing at stuff.

Why do businesses waste their time budgeting? They might as well save the time and money and just ask the cleaner to have a guess.

Maybe they have highly paid jobs because they forecast what they're told to do?

Rocking the boat generally means losing your job.

[Sidney1st]

You're dismissing all economic forecasts as guesses? No expertise, no understanding of the issues, no studying of data, no insight as to the consequences of various decisions that could be taken, all just guesswork? Frankly it's amazing that these people have highly paid jobs if all they do is wander around all day guessing at stuff.

Why do businesses waste their time budgeting? They might as well save the time and money and just ask the cleaner to have a guess.

What is a forecast?

When you understand that, you'll see what I'm saying.

[Lancasterclaret]

If only the remainer's realised that all this kerfuffle they're making is driving the country further into hard brexit, well that and the EU taking the mick.

Quite the opposite in fact. All the evidence is coming out and the Brexiteers are struggling to convince people what they promised is what they can actually deliver.

And guess what? People hate admitting they are wrong, but if they get a good scapegoat they can blame for them making a mistake, they will be all over that like a rash.

[SammyBoy]

I've pretty much stopped discussing this topic now. I voted leave - glad I did - don't regret it for a second. The continued arguments are now pointless because every time a discussion takes place someone will come up with stats to 'prove' their point. Unfortunately I believe most 'reports' that are published one way or the other are compiled by those with an agenda, on BOTH sides. It's all been very emotive but the time for arguing has gone. It is going to happen, that's it, and all we have left now is arguments over 'I told you so' based on mainly flawed reports from the internet, which contrary to popular belief is not the font of all wisdom.

I'd like to think this will be my last post on this matter but as the saying goes 'never say never again'.

I think it's pointless arguing with your family, friends and especially people on internet forums about Brexit. As mentioned a couple of times already, everybody is firmly dug in, and to concede ground one way or the other now would be a blow to peoples pride. However, as a remain voter I will only accept the final Brexit deal once it's cast in stone and there's literally no further way to challenge or influence it. Until that moment I will support causes and cast my vote for parties and organisations that attempt to derail the Rees-Mogg "hard Brexit" as much as possible.

[RingoMcCartney]

The treasury - the act of voting Leave will see unemployment rise by between 500000 and 850000!

David Cameron: " leave vote would be economic bomb for UK"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... uk-economy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Alistair Darling: "Brexit would risk collapse of confidence in UK economy"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... uk-economy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And the disciples of the Church of the Latter Day Remoaners fell for, and still desparately cling onto, the bible of bile spewed by the preacher men with a fetish for economic masochism and self flagellation.

Final call for the timid, those lacking in self confidence, and the terminally scared and gullible. All aboard the Ghost Train. All aboard the Ghost Train.

[Sidney1st]

Quite the opposite in fact. All the evidence is coming out and the Brexiteers are struggling to convince people what they promised is what they can actually deliver.

And guess what? People hate admitting they are wrong, but if they get a good scapegoat they can blame for them making a mistake, they will be all over that like a rash.

Majority of the common people who voted did it to leave the EU.
That's all they've got to deliver.

Some will go into more detail about the promised land etc, bit like remain are saying we get if we stayed in.

As for scapegoating, that's already happening on both sides and we haven't even left yet.

[UpTheBeehole]

And the disciples of the Church of the Latter Day Remoaners fell for, and still desparately cling onto, the bible of bile spewed by the guys selling tickets for the Ghost Train!

He's still on with his new catchphrase

[RingoMcCartney]

He's still on with his new catchphrase

Boo

[Bacchus]

What is a forecast?

When you understand that, you'll see what I'm saying.

You're right. I don't understand forecasting. I'm too busy sitting at my desk all week guessing at stuff.

[RingoMcCartney]

You're dismissing all economic forecasts as guesses? No expertise, no understanding of the issues, no studying of data, no insight as to the consequences of various decisions that could be taken, all just guesswork? Frankly it's amazing that these people have highly paid jobs if all they do is wander around all day guessing at stuff.

Why do businesses waste their time budgeting? They might as well save the time and money and just ask the cleaner to have a guess.

For all their "expertise,"

For all their "understanding of the issues"

For all their "studying of data."

For their "insight as to the consequences of various decisions that could be taken."

Not a single one of them FORECAST the global financial melt down of 2008.

[Quickenthetempo]

Is it fair to say the majority of people posting on the Brexit threads aren't from Burnley?

[RingoMcCartney]

Politics - show business for ugly people

Economic experts - well paid bookies.

[Bacchus]

Maybe they have highly paid jobs because they forecast what they're told to do?

Rocking the boat generally means losing your job.

So you're now accusing all economists of being controlled by some undefined anti-Brexit authority?

Where are we at now? Judges, universities, economists - are there any other professions that are universally devoted to undermining the will of the people?

[Bacchus]

For all their "expertise,"

For all their "understanding of the issues"

For all their "studying of data."

For their "insight as to the consequences of various decisions that could be taken."

Not a single one of them FORECAST the global financial melt down of 2008.

Yes, they did. Plenty. People didn't listen though. Does that ring any bells?

https://www.intheblack.com/articles/201 ... rom-now-on

[Quickenthetempo]

Don't start me on judges http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/ne ... kburn_pub/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next you will be telling me all these football stars and the like actually believe in or love the crap products they get paid to advertise.

[Bacchus]

Don't start me on judges http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/ne ... kburn_pub/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next you will be telling me all these football stars and the like actually believe in or love the crap products they get paid to advertise.

Spectacularly irrelevant. Bravo.

[RingoMcCartney]

Yes, they did. Plenty. People didn't listen though. Does that ring any bells?

https://www.intheblack.com/articles/201 ... rom-now-on

A list of 6 economists who DID predict the global financial melt down.

None of them appear to work in the Treasury and responsible for research discussed in this thread.

[Bacchus]

A list of 6 economists who DID predict the global financial melt down.

None of them appear to work in the Treasury and responsible for research discussed in this thread.

You brought up the 2008 crash. Maybe you could provide me with a list of who was working for the treasury at that point who is also working on the present day Brexit modelling and we can discuss their individual credentials.

Until then we can just assume that your ill-informed attempt to undermine an entire profession fell flat on its face.

[nil_desperandum]

Is it fair to say the majority of people posting on the Brexit threads aren't from Burnley?

How do you reach that conclusion?
(Except one can make certain assumptions about Hatfield, Hampstead and Lancaster claret, and some posters admit to being "exiles" e.g. Rowls, "Eddy" and Aggi, but I believe that most of these are actually from Burnley.)

[Tall Paul]

Yet another epic goalpost shift from Ringo.

[nil_desperandum]

Economic experts - well paid bookies.

So maybe you should take some notice of them, since the bookies more often than not get things right.

[RingoMcCartney]

You brought up the 2008 crash. Maybe you could provide me with a list of who was working for the treasury at that point who is also working on the present day Brexit modelling and we can discuss their individual credentials.

Until then we can just assume that your ill-informed attempt to undermine an entire profession fell flat on its face.

Did it!?

You manage to find 6 economists who DID predict the global financial melt down. 6 amongst 1000s who DIDN'T . And you assume the "exception to the rule" technique of supporting a viewpoint, wins an argument!

I know why you voted Remain now!

As for the idea of "provide me with a list of who was working for the treasury at that point who is also working on the present day Brexit modelling and we can discuss their individual credentials"

I'll sit that one out fella. I have to wash my hair or summat!

[RingoMcCartney]

Yet another epic goalpost shift from Ringo.

More classic sniping from the sidelines from the ministry of pedantry and nitpicking!

How are things on the department of Pretending I don't know what he means really, but cos it's Ringo I'll argue the toss!?

Rumbled kidder.

[UpTheBeehole]

Seeing as Sidney won't answer, Ringo, whose opinions on finance/Brexit et cetera do you value?

[Sidney1st]

Seeing as Sidney won't answer, Ringo, whose opinions on finance/Brexit et cetera do you value?

Told you, I'm not going round in circles with you again on this one.

You'll end up sneering down your nose at me and if I'm honest I can't be arsed with that from someone like you.

I read lots of different things about Brexit, from both sides, I take it in and form my own opinion.
There is stuff from both sides that's clearly biased to suit their own agenda, just like there is on here.

I don't keep tabs on who's stuff I've read, there's that much out there it would be a long list.

What you want is a name so you can try to discredit it, you're that easy to spot a mile off.

[Sidney1st]

You're right. I don't understand forecasting. I'm too busy sitting at my desk all week guessing at stuff.

Glad you understand what it is.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 0405731331" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well, unusually candid from the Japanese ambassador.

[houseboy]

I think it's pointless arguing with your family, friends and especially people on internet forums about Brexit. As mentioned a couple of times already, everybody is firmly dug in, and to concede ground one way or the other now would be a blow to peoples pride. However, as a remain voter I will only accept the final Brexit deal once it's cast in stone and there's literally no further way to challenge or influence it. Until that moment I will support causes and cast my vote for parties and organisations that attempt to derail the Rees-Mogg "hard Brexit" as much as possible.

Hey mate everyone had their reasons for voting the way they did and all are to be respected. Mine simply was a 40-odd year hatred of that which I voted NOT TO JOIN in the first place. There are a number of reasons and, for those old enough to remember, one was the awful and immoral common agricultural policy, which saw food stockpiled to keep prices artificially high to subsidise (mainly European) farmers. It caused prices to be high for no reason and, morally, was awful when you consider the millions starving whilst we were sat on mountains of food going off. That wasn't the only reason but I can never forgive them for that.
Anyway, I hope you are not too disappointed with how it eventually turns out (and I hope I don't live to regret it if does go pear-shaped).

[FactualFrank]

So. Are we all in agreement?

[RingoMcCartney]

So. Are we all in agreement?

Too right!

We're still leaving the EU.

[aggi]

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 0405731331

Well, unusually candid from the Japanese ambassador.

It's not that surprising, for the past eighteen months Japan have been pushing for a Brexit that will have the UK in the customs union. Early on they said “Japanese businesses with their European headquarters in the UK may decide to transfer their head-office function to continental Europe if EU laws cease to be applicable in the UK after its withdrawal.”

They've been pretty clear that long-term their investment in the UK is because the UK is a seamless gateway to Europe. Without that I suspect we'll see investment going elsewhere (or being hugely subsidised by us).

Then again they also said “What Japanese businesses in Europe most wish to avoid is the situation in which they are unable to discern clearly the way the negotiations are going, only grasping the whole picture at the last minute. It is imperative that the outcome is free of unpleasant surprises and reducing the risks emanating from uncertainty.”

So I can't imagine they've been that impressed by negotiations so far.

[Spiral]

Ringo taking other people's work and passing it off as his own, again, I see. Too ignorant to produce a coherent thought of his own, so he plagiarises the (blog)posts of others. I don't know why any of you give him the time of day.

https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/why- ... ver-again/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If ever he isn't sounding like a twelve year old, just highlight a part of his post, right click and select "search google", because he seems to believe citing sources is beneath him. Realise you're talking to someone who isn't interested in sincere, thoughtful debate, but only in calcifying his beliefs. Plenty of crackpots on here with whom I have no real problem, aside form disagreeing with their views, but Ringo is the only one who is blatantly disingenuous.

[aggi]

The EU ramping it up as well with the release of a wide variety of guidance notes on how to treat dealings with the UK post exit.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit ... i18n=22848" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RingoMcCartney]

Ringo taking other people's work and passing it off as his own, again, I see. Too ignorant to produce a coherent thought of his own, so he plagiarises the (blog)posts of others. I don't know why any of you give him the time of day.

https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/why- ... ver-again/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If ever he isn't sounding like a twelve year old, just highlight a part of his post, right click and select "search google", because he seems to believe citing sources is beneath him. Realise you're talking to someone who isn't interested in sincere, thoughtful debate, but only in calcifying his beliefs. Plenty of crackpots on here with whom I have no real problem, aside form disagreeing with their views, but Ringo is the only one who is blatantly disingenuous.

It's Ground Hog Day with Spiral!

When, where or more importantly, have I ever attempted to take "other people's work and passing it off as my own"? And that's the second time I've asked, virtually, the same question of you

Do you not understand the very simple and basic concept that the internet exists. Consequently, it can be used as a convenient tool to quickly gather information, from one single source?

It really is so very very basic.

So well sported Sherlock! My first post on this thread was taken from the source you say. Give yourself a pat on the back for the 2nd time!

So correct me if I'm wrong. You've cut n pasted my quote, put it into Google then looked at the search results to see if it's the same as other results? If so, there's an worryingly, accurate adjective for that. - Weird!

Look at aggis post number 41 above. Its clear that he's using for convenience, in order to make a point, somebody else's words. He's not claiming it to be his own. Just using sections of dialogue sourced elsewhere. Last time I looked it wasn't a cardinal sin.

So again, Mr Conspiracy Theory, your sad and second attempt to out me as a secret, plagiarist. Has been as infantile as it has utterly futile.

Others do it, and cos I already spend too much time on here enlightening you Remoaners. Anything that allows me minimise time spent while helping you to become more sophisticated, insightful and wordly-wise will continue to be utilised.

[ClaretCliff]

So far as I'm aware nobody has ever attempted attempted to sail across the Atlantic on an ironing board. Does that discredit my forecast that it would be a bad idea?

I'm pretty sure that it was thought to be a bad idea to try and cross the Pacific on a balsa wood raft - yet when Thor Heyerdahl did just that in 1947 it was inspirational. Sometimes it is good to go against "expert" opinion.

[martin_p]

It's Ground Hog Day with Spiral!

When, when or more importantly, have I ever attempted to take "other people's work and passing it off as my own"

Do you not understand the very simple and basic concept that the internet exists. Consequently, it can be used as a convenient tool to quickly gather information, from one single source?

It really is so very very basic.

So well sported Sherlock! My first post on this thread was taken from the source you say. Give yourself a pat on the back for the 2nd time!

Correct me if I'm wrong. You've cut n pasted my quote, put it into Google then looked at the search results to see if it's the same as other results? If so, there's an worryingly, accurate adjective for that. - Weird!

So again, Mr Conspiracy Theory, your sad and second attempt to out me as a plagiarist has been as infantile as it has utterly futile.

......but correct.

[RingoMcCartney]

......but correct.

Yes!

[martin_p]

You manage to find 6 economists who DID predict the global financial melt down. 6 amongst 1000s who DIDN'T . And you assume the "exception to the rule" technique of supporting a viewpoint, wins an argument!

It disproves your assertion that ‘not a single one’ of them forecast the crash. That’s all he was attempting to do. Or did you mean something you didn’t actually write as usual?

[RingoMcCartney]

It disproves your assertion that ‘not a single one’ of them forecast the crash. That’s all he was attempting to do. Or did you mean something you didn’t actually write as usual?

Oh dear dear dear.

Marty Marty Marty.

Your trolling techniques are becoming increasingly below par.

[martin_p]

Oh dear dear dear.

Marty Marty Marty.

Your trolling techniques are becoming increasingly below par.

No trolling from me, just facts. You said something, someone proved you wrong, you go into deflection mode. It’s what you do.