Research on Brexit Outcomes

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:59 pm

I thought this article was interesting, and saw no other thread featuring it. The idea that brexit will impact hardest on those areas who voted most strongly to leave is striking. Like everyone else, I don't wish economic hardship on anyone, however what worries me more is the thought this government might attempt to stimulate growth through deregulating in a big way - which will leave ordinary people a lot worse off in the long run.

Your thoughts?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-analysis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:09 pm

**** always rolls downhill.

The world is designed against the working class, but the masses keep on fighting.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:18 pm

The new Treasury-led Brexit forecasts have to be read in the context of their record at predicting what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.

The HMT prediction for GDP 3 months after the referendum was that “the UK economy would fall into recession” and contract up to -1%. It grew +0.5% in this period.

The Treasury told us: “The analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into a recession, with four quarters of negative growth.” The reality has been positive growth every single quarter since.

HMT forecast that in the two years following a Leave vote GDP would fall between -3% and -6%. GDP grew by 1.9% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, with better than expected growth in the final quarter. There is now no recession forecast.

On unemployment, they infamously said it would rise by between 500,000 and 820,000 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. Unemployment fell again last week to a four-decade low.

And the Treasury said government borrowing would rise by up to £39 billion immediately after the vote. Instead borrowing for the financial year to date is down 12% on the same period last year. That’s the lowest year-to-date total since 2007.

Why would anyone believe the people who predicted this nonsense ever again?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:33 pm

I never quite understand these figures that say it's all bad news. One bit of good news, for example - we currently have a vast balance of payments deficit with the EU, so either that deficit will improve, or we'll make a profit on tariffs. Assuming that the Guardian's surely fatuous suggestion that we will give the EU free access to our market while paying tariffs to access theirs, doesn't happen.

I'd like a bit more info on what the figures mean. Does the "16% hit to regional economic growth" mean that the economy will contract by 16%, or that annual growth will reduce by 16% per annum, or that overall compounded growth over the next 15 years will be 16% less, or some combination?

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:58 pm

AndrewJB wrote:this government

Whatever Brexit throws at us. "This government" is one thing the poor can directly change.
For me, that is what Brexit is all about

starting_11 · Post by **starting_11** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:01 am

Right on brother.

And for me, brexit was way more than just money.... It was about regaining control of things you'd lost.

The EUSSR is way out of control.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:01 am

What a load of complete cobblers today’s report is. Serious cobblers. I prey that once every blue moon they publish the working papers and assumptions too but the figures are deliberately misleading by using total % over 15 years. I’ve seen the press suggest ambiguously that the % drop is either a % of total GDP or a % of reduced growth - the latter is no great shakes, but would still be unduly pessimistic.

For example the North West, whose GDP will be savaged in the event of a no deal, by over 12%, and over 7% in the event of a free trade deal. The total GDP for the North West is about £150bn. Thus we are talking over £10bn lost over 15 years in the event of a free trade deal. That is about £0.7bn per year. About 0.5%. Growth in the NW may (say) be 2% per year in that timeframe, being pessimistic, hence that is a quarter of growth gone, worst case. Hardly earth shattering. And probably wrong. This is why.

Now, the North East has about £14bn exports to the EU and about £20bn imports. The exports are 50% of total worldwide exports. The tariffs to be paid would hurt the EU more by value (I accept they are bigger and can take the bloody nose, but some countries export more to us than others. There is an exchange rate angle too - cutting back on imports and making exports more attractive to others.

Finally, taking all the above into account, a free trade deal would see the £14bn exports lose £10bn after growth. Say growth is 2% a year. That means the £14bn would rise to about £20bn in 2034 then fall to £10bn due to the free trade deal being a poor one. Really? This is a free trade deal not a no deal. Even a no deal would be farcical to see such a drop.

As I said, all cobblers. A quick dig into the figures (apologies it’s crude but I’m ready for bed) renders them crazy. The clue was that the “experts” claim London would be relatively unaffected, despite all the media having long since said that financial services face the biggest risks due to passporting and probable exclusion from a Norway or Canada style deal. That means this report is a deliberate attempt, again, to panic people. Scandalous.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:06 am

Throughout the actual brexit debate I tried my best to ignore the spurious claims made on both sides of "project fear". To me the most sensible argument was that made by other parties of "the EU isn't perfect, but it's better to remain inside and work to improve it" Out of the leave arguments I liked the idea of taking back control, and using the departure to build a better Britain (better than what we have with the EU, though I also ignored the £350 Million per week extra for the NHS - as it was groundless). I don't see how HMT could come up with accurate predictions based on the referendum result alone (those would have to come with a lot of assumptions), and I also don't believe it makes civil servants biased against brexit, or completely incompetent; but reflects the opinions of the person in charge of HMT at the time. He may have asked for a gloomy scenario, and put that out. The big difference here is that this study is based on the UK actually leaving, and even the most ardent leaver will recognise there will be an economic hit to this country when we reduce our ties to our closest economic neighbours. That report may well be gloomier than it should, but let's not kid ourselves that everything will be perfect either. My fear, as I said above, is that this government might attempt to rectify any hit to the economy with a bonfire of regulations. And I believe this would be such a retrograde step as to make life worse for the vast majority of people.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:06 am

As Ringo stated, the figures have been put together by the same prophets of doom that predicted disaster post Brexit vote. They have an agenda , so why believe them now.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:23 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:As Ringo stated, the figures have been put together by the same prophets of doom that predicted disaster post Brexit vote. They have an agenda , so why believe them now.

They're civil servants, so there should be no agenda. They're supposed to implement what the government want. Their previous master was George Osborne - so it's not a long stretch to understand why those earlier figures were put out. They're now under Hammond. Do you really think he's asking them to produce gloomy research? If so it's not them who should be replaced, but Hammond.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:36 am

Also these figures don't show any response from Government or the BOE to mitigate them, James O'Brien was shot down for suggesting that the "Project fear" predictions didn't come to pass because the BOE acted to mitigate them, well if they did it then, then they could do it again.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:49 am

At this point, Brexit resembles a religion more than anything else. So no matter how compelling the evidence against it is, it doesn't make a difference to those who have unshakeable faith in it.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:58 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:At this point, Brexit resembles a religion more than anything else. So no matter how compelling the evidence against it is, it doesn't make a difference to those who have unshakeable faith in it.

Same for those against it who aren't interested in the possibility that it could work out well in the end for us.

stateofthenation · Post by **stateofthenation** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:01 am

Any doomsday prediction or paradise scenario will come into effect after we leave. This is yet to happen.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:08 am

Sidney1st wrote:Same for those against it who aren't interested in the possibility that it could work out well in the end for us.

The big difference being there's a mountain of evidence as a result of research and studies that all points to the UK being significantly worse off outside of the EU.

The people who think we'll all be better off outside of the EU are operating on blind faith and hope.

Eddiebfc · Post by **Eddiebfc** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:11 am

These figures are very misleading as they refer to the reduction in growth forecast over 15 years as opposed to reduction in current GDP i.e. They are predicting that GDP will be X% less than it would have been had we not left the EU. One very important point in this is the impact of net immigration on GDP. As the population grows GDP grows but we aren't on average any better off necessarily. If the figures include an adjustment for lower net immigration as a result of the end to free movement GDP will obviously be lower in 15 years time than it would be if say the population was X% higher. However it doesn't mean that GDP per population is necessarily lower and may actually be higher meaning on average we are better off. However that will depend on what assumptions have been made by HMT.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:11 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:The big difference being there's a mountain of evidence as a result of research and studies that all points to the UK being significantly worse off outside of the EU.

The people who think we'll all be better off outside of the EU are operating on blind faith and hope.

Evidence based on what exactly?

I'll need to check but aren't we the first and only member state to leave the EU?
So the research and studies are based on what?
It's all guess work, always has been by both sides and both sides are equally guilty of painting the final picture to suit their own agenda.

Until we are out and the dust has settled no one can say with absolute certainty how this is going to end.
There will be plenty of hand wringing by the remain side and chest thumping by the leave side.

Anyone with any sense will just wait to see how it plays out.

Sozturf7 · Post by **Sozturf7** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:00 am

Lies, dam lies and statistics!

Burnley Ace · Post by **Burnley Ace** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:07 am

Sidney1st wrote:Same for those against it who aren't interested in the possibility that it could work out well in the end for us.

What facts are you basing your optimism on?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:22 am

Burnley Ace wrote:What facts are you basing your optimism on?

None, I'm willing to give it a chance though, unlike some who clearly aren't.

There aren't many facts for the leave side of the argument either, it's mainly guess work / opinions.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:26 am

Still see that quite basic economics is too much for Brexiteers. Don't worry about it though, both Redwood and Hannan don't get WTO rules either.

The EUSSR is way out of control

You can only say that if you don't have a clue about two things, the EU / USSR or that you are just trolling.

Both not a good look to be honest.

I'm prepared to accept that they might be skewered to be slightly negative, but I genuinely don't see anything contradicting them, apart from people like Ringo (and there are a hell of a lot of people like him) saying the equivalent of "experts can be wrong, so lets assume they are never right".

Its an, er, interesting way of looking at stuff.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:28 am

There aren't many facts for the leave side of the argument either, it's mainly guess work / opinions.

Replace "aren't many" with "are no" and its a lot more accurate to be fair Sid.

See the car giants are at Downing street again today. They wouldn't be doing that if everything was going to be tickedy boo

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:29 am

It's funny how a few posters on here who regularly claim to be atheist and hate religion are the most fervent believers in the mythical 'good brexit', for which there is no evidence.

We've more chance of the second coming of Christ.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 am

AndrewJB wrote:They're civil servants, so there should be no agenda. They're supposed to implement what the government want. Their previous master was George Osborne - so it's not a long stretch to understand why those earlier figures were put out. They're now under Hammond. Do you really think he's asking them to produce gloomy research? If so it's not them who should be replaced, but Hammond.

Is that the very same George Osborne that decided that the treasury had become so politicised during the Labour government, he felt it necessary to set up the OBR to get a less agenda ridden picture.

As you say Andrew, "They're civil servants, so there should be no agenda."

The key word there is "should"......

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:34 am

How does the OBR view Brexit Ringo?

David Davis own department?

Big business?

Small business?

Any wealth generators at all? (apart from disaster capitalists)

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:48 am

We export more to Ireland than we do to India, Aus, Japan and South Korea combined.

Whatever plan you Brexiteers have got, its going to be reality soon and good luck with it, as the problem with unicorn based plans is that you have to prove their existence at some stage.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:48 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Replace "aren't many" with "are no" and its a lot more accurate to be fair Sid.

See the car giants are at Downing street again today. They wouldn't be doing that if everything was going to be tickedy boo

I beg to differ. I reckon that if the car giants see a way to get the government to subsidise their plants, they would take it - even if they could do without it. If there's money to be had, and they think the government's likely to give it to them, they're in. Wouldn't you be?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:58 am

In this meeting DSR, they will have facts and figures, they will have operating costs and export costs for all their plants in Europe, those in the EU and those out of them.

Again, it genuinely baffles me that really intelligent successful people in a field were facts and figures are completely the key can just ignore any evidence based on that to back Brexit.

Its actually pretty frightening really.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:07 am

Paul Brannen, Labour MEP for the North East of England, says,

"A 16% reduction in the GDP of the North East translates into thousands of job losses"

May I suggest that, the one, North East, job loss that Paul is really concerned about. Is his own when we leave the EU.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:12 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:The big difference being there's a mountain of evidence as a result of research and studies that all points to the UK being significantly worse off outside of the EU.

The people who think we'll all be better off outside of the EU are operating on blind faith and hope.

Your missing the point John. The 'mountain of evidence' provided through research and studies, were carried out by people who want us to remain. They'll claim it's independent, but it's a load of ********.
I, like everyone else, have no idea what the final outcome of Brexit will be. Anybody who claims they know is lying.
The whole idea of independence from the EU, was the ability to react, in our own best interests, to any given situation. Rather than be ham strung by a federalist agenda.
Nothings changed.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:13 am

Not everyone thinks like that though Ringo.

Perhaps he's genuinely worried about job losses in an area that really can't afford those sorts of job losses?

If you are that cynical about that kind of thing, then maybe you should start using it on the people who back your point of view? I suspect you will find it a bit of an eye opener.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:14 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:Paul Brannen, Labour MEP for the North East of England, says,

"A 16% reduction in the GDP of the North East translates into thousands of job losses"

May I suggest that, the one, North East, job loss that Paul is really concerned about. Is his own when we leave the EU.

No, he's concerned about the THOUSANDS of job losses to working class folk.

People you claim to care about, yet you're quite happy to sell them out.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:15 am

Nothings changed.

You are not wrong there. People still can't be arsed to find out about stuff, especially when they know deep down it will completely destroy their long held beliefs.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:15 am

brexiteers are on a par with the 9/11 was an inside job gang when it comes to conspiracy theories.

its a ridiculous cult.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:21 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Replace "aren't many" with "are no" and its a lot more accurate to be fair Sid.

See the car giants are at Downing street again today. They wouldn't be doing that if everything was going to be tickedy boo

They just want the best deals for themselves.

If they don't get it the EU will no doubt 'bribe' them to move to the mainland, like they did with Ford.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:22 am

UpTheBeehole wrote:It's funny how a few posters on here who regularly claim to be atheist and hate religion are the most fervent believers in the mythical 'good brexit', for which there is no evidence.

We've more chance of the second coming of Christ.

Factual evidence of it being bad then?
Or are you going to reel out the opinions of various quango's and independant bodies?

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:24 am

It will be interesting to see how many EU laws are repealed once we finally leave.

I suspect very few, if any.

What a sham if that's the case. Surely Brexiteers should be looking to reverse as many as they can.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:26 am

The vast majority will be converted into UK law (thankfully) under the Great Repeal Bill.

They then become UK law, and that makes then fine and dandy (apparently)

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:27 am

Go to the pleasure beach , Blackpool.

Look at the length of the queue for the Speak Your Weight machine. Then look queue for the Ghost Train.

People love to be scared!

So Remoaners like Lancaster Claret will gleefully believe all this Economic Armageddon claptrap. Its part of the buzz! (Even though the people peddling have been proven wrong!)

Please keep hands and feet inside the carriage during the the ride boys and girls!

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:28 am

That's when the Labour supporters will start accusing the Tories of throwing everyone's working rights into the bin....

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:31 am

Everytime you use the term "remoaner", its a point to me.

Means you've lost the argument again.

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:33 am

Whats the name for someone who voted Brexit?

I'm a remoaner so a Brexit voter is what?

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:34 am

ClaretAndJew wrote:Whats the name for someone who voted Brexit?

I'm a remoaner so a Brexit voter is what?

A racist

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:36 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Everytime you use the term "remoaner", its a point to me.

Means you've lost the argument again.

Ok.

What about xenophobe, knuckle dragger, little Englander, racist, swivel eyed loon, Nazi, uneducated, geriatric, less sophisticated, white van man........

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:37 am

Tall Paul wrote:A racist

BINGO!!!!!!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:38 am

Enjoy the ride ladies!

Boo!

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:39 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:We export more to Ireland than we do to India, Aus, Japan and South Korea combined.

Whatever plan you Brexiteers have got, its going to be reality soon and good luck with it, as the problem with unicorn based plans is that you have to prove their existence at some stage.

Once we're free to make those trade deals though they'll be huge trading partners. We'll be making a new path in international trade, they'll all be desperate for those exports we specialise in, financial services and the like.

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:39 am

One thing I will say about this whole debacle, and I tend not to post on here my opinions of this topic...

It was one of the most ill informed votes I've ever taken part in, maybe the most ill informed for a long time (I won't say ever cause I don't know).

What I'll also say is, we cannot fully know the extent of "Brexit" until it's happened and until everything has settled.

So the highs and the lows in the economy or job growth etc can't really be attributed to any of it, yet.

It's one for the history books I'm afraid and whilst I am very skeptical about how we're going to be "better off" out of Europe, I can only wait and see.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:40 am

quoonbeatz wrote:brexiteers are on a par with the 9/11 was an inside job gang when it comes to conspiracy theories.

its a ridiculous cult.

They, like remoaners also claim to have "mountains of evidence" for something that hasn't happened

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:41 am

What about xenophobe, knuckle dragger, little Englander, racist, swivel eyed loon, Nazi, uneducated, geriatric, less sophisticated, white van man........

Not very catchy is it?