Possible 2nd EU Referendum

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:21 pm

aggi wrote:As I said earlier, the fact that you struggle to read and prefer to ignore facts where they are inconvenient makes it a bit of a pointless discussion.

Just block him aggi. He brings nothing to the discussion anyway. He even contradicts himself to make a ner-ner-ner-ner post that merely shows what an absolute idiot he is.

In fact, if you block the rabid right-wingers and leavers on here it's like a MENSA meeting with sensible grown-up discussions of the daily political twists and turns.

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:47 pm

Here's my favourite news today from Monty Python's Flying Government...

"Government amendment on Irish border passed yesterday will effectively keep UK in single market, MPs claim

Starmer says the government agreed in December that there must be no hard border in Ireland after Brexit, meaning no new infrastructure at the border.

He says one of the government amendments passed yesterday (an amendment to the Chris Patten amendment) now makes this a legally binding obligation. He says this did not get much attention yesterday, but it is hugely significant.

Dominic Grieve, the Conservative pro-European, says the Ireland amendment is even more important. To avoid border infrastructure, there would be to be a high level of regulatory alignment, he says.

Starmer agrees.

Ken Clarke, another Conservative pro-European, intervenes. He says the government passing the amendment that Starmer is talking about was the most significant thing that happened yesterday, even though it did not attract much attention. He goes on:

Effectively we are going to reproduce the customs union and the single market and the government will not be able to comply with yesterday’s legal obligation unless it does so.

Starmer agrees. He says the Irish amendments passed yesterday were the most significant event of the day."

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:58 pm

Dsr

Jacob Rees Mogg was on the radio on Monday, saying that if the French didn't play ball, the UK-EU trade would move from Calais to Rotterdam.

The presenter agreed with him.

I'd have sacked him on the spot and spent the next ten minutes telling JRM exactly why what he is saying is complete hogwash.

- over three times the distance, so to carry the equivalent amount of freight you'd need three times as many roll on/roll off ferries

- even if you could get that (you can't) Dover and Rotterdam do not have the huge increase in linkspans to make that possible (again, you can't at Dover, not sure about Rotterdam)

- Rotterdam is still in the EU, so whatever EU trade problems at Calais would be replicated at Rotterdam

Thats just the UK-EU trade bit on one port.

You can't pretend that it doesn't matter, because it does. We don't magically become a trader with Vanatu just because you want to leave the EU.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:09 pm

Some fair points, although I don't agree that having a sizeable majority is an academic point (and the larger the majority the fewer the rebels - toadying for position would have become a more popular pastime than rebelling)!

And surely Gina Miller and friends must take a large slice of credit for the timing of the Article 50 trigger and the ridiculous (IMO) parliamentary vote on it - as if they could vote any other way having overwhelmingly decided to give the decision to the people. Speaking of motives - I notice Miller is a bit more transparent about her Brexit stopping agenda than she used to pretend!

They would have rebelled anyway, because as my previous points highlight, it would still be a clusterfuck.

There is no way that the Brexiteers would have held off triggering article 50, they were so desperate to get us out before people realise they have been conned.

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:15 pm

It's a poor do when he can't even grasp simple logistics. The honourable member for the 18th century is showing himself to be thick as mince.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:They would have rebelled anyway, because as my previous points highlight, it would still be a clusterfuck.

There is no way that the Brexiteers would have held off triggering article 50, they were so desperate to get us out before people realise they have been conned.

They were also desperate to get out before the EU's Anti Tax Avoidance Directive comes into force in early 2019.

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/b ... rective_en" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:39 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:- even if you could get that (you can't) Dover and Rotterdam do not have the huge increase in linkspans to make that possible (again, you can't at Dover, not sure about Rotterdam)

Why would you need an increase in linkspans? If you have a hundred ferries each departing once a day and replace them with three hundred ferries leaving every third day, you don't need any more linkspans.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:47 pm

Because of the existing trade at Rotterdam which would already use them.

Though I take your point at Dover!

But you can well see what I mean though, JRM is wandering through the radio and tv studios of the land basically telling people a load of ******** and he's getting away with it for reasons that make no sense.

Something as basic as this should and could be called out straight away.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:00 pm

Looking possible EEA membership will be proposed as a compromise solution,

Brexit Committee chair and Labour MP Hilary Benn says that the "consequences of getting this wrong will be deeply damaging" and it is "difficult to overstate" how much is at stake in Brexit.

He says the people of Britain have "had enough of management in the party interest; what we desperately need now is leadership in the national interest".

He says he wants to support the EEA amendment, which would make remaining in the European Economic Area a negotiating objective. He notes that the EEA still requires free movement but he says it would be possible to "seek some changes" to the way it works.

He says joining the EEA has a number of advantages including that it is available "off the shelf" and "could be negotiated relatively quickly".

Some argue that remaining in the EEA would be de-facto remaining in the EU. But Hilary Benn asks if "anyone [is] seriously arguing that Iceland, which is an EEA member, is a member of the European Union? It is not. That argument holds no strength at all".

Would this solve the Irish border issue?,perhaps but FOM would still be a problematic sell for some brexiteers,as a leaver myself i always suspected ultimately this was the most likely path for the UK to follow,it won't please everybody on either side of the debate but common sense has to prevail eventually.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:03 pm

But we have left the EU.

Thats what the referendum result said we had to do.

Job done.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:But we have left the EU.

Thats what the referendum result said we had to do.

Job done.

Job done!?

Listening to Ian Dale on LBC. Caller has said "I had to wait 40 years since the first vote, to get another say. The question was simple. There was no soft or Hard brexit. I know, and everybody that I speak to knew what it meant. I tell you now Ian, if we end up with the so called soft brexit, that the majority of people didn't vote for. I've been involved in politics all my life and always voted. I'll never vote again."

Ian Dale. "If my inbox and Twitter feed is anything to go by, there are many many people across the country, that feel the same. And I must say I sympathise with the recurring theme of their messages. Which is. I won't bother voting again. There's simply no point"

Dominic Grieve and his anti democratic forces - never have so few done so much, to damage the democracy, cherished by so many.

Job done!? No.

Democracy done!? Yes.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:37 pm

You've got the Brexit you voted for, but not the Brexit that was promised.

You know why you haven't got the Brexit you were promised, its been pointing out to you every day for the last two years.

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:50 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You've got the Brexit you voted for, but not the Brexit that was promised.

You know why you haven't got the Brexit you were promised, its been pointing out to you every day for the last two years.

Yeah.

You won, get over it!

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:19 am

well done to the 15 Labour MP's who voted against joining the EEA, more than enough to nullify any Tory, remoaner rebels.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:28 am

Hi Andy, does joining the EEA mean you are in the EU?

pureclaret · Post by **pureclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:53 am

Ok so 11 months from now we will be out of Europe Union In the Champions league for next season have ended 4 th in Prem league North Korea will have disarmed completely and Sir Donald Trump will be also president of Europe !!!!!!

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:06 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Hi Andy, does joining the EEA mean you are in the EU?

It means free movement, these 15 labour MP's know this, I suggest you watch the excellent speech from Caroline Flint yesterday.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:15 am

Thanks for that, but I already know that, so again

Hi Andy, does joining the EEA mean you are in the EU?

Caballo · Post by **Caballo** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:18 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Thanks for that, but I already know that, so again

Hi Andy, does joining the EEA mean you are in the EU?

It's not as good as being in the EU.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:26 am

That I also know!

android · Post by **android** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:14 am

I'm sure you know the answer to your question Lancs so not sure where you are going with that one.

On free movement. You, IT and others are convinced that Leave won because they were sold a dud by the Leave campaign- in particular that we would keep all the main benefits of being in the EU. But that's not true, as free movement was very obviously one of the big benefits of being in the EU (also a drawback of course) and it was very clear to everyone that it would end if we left the EU.

What surprises me more is that you, IT and others did not seem to be aware that the Leave campaign were not in a position to make any deliverable promises.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:19 am

Here's part of Caroline Flint's excellent speech for those that haven't heard or seen it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:20 am

I'm wanting Andy to admit that joining the EEA fulfills the question on the referendum ballot paper about whether we should leave or remain in the EU.

Thats all

If thats not what his vote meant, then it means that everyone's vote might have meant different things, something Brexiteers are normally really careful not to acknowledge. Funny that eh?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:21 am

Hi Andy, glad you are still here

Again, does joining the EEA mean you are in the EU?

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:58 am

I wonder if today's revelation about Rees Mogg's continued hypocrisy will concern committed "leavers" in the slightest.

For anyone who may have missed this:

"The Conservative MP faced questions when it emerged that Somerset Capital Management (SCM) had launched a new investment vehicle in Dublin amid concerns about being cut off from European investors.

A prospectus for the new business, which was registered in March and will be governed by EU and Irish rules, listed Brexit as one of the risks, as it could cause “considerable uncertainty”.

The disclosure is potentially embarrassing for Mr Rees-Mogg, who has been one of the most vocal advocates of a clean break from the EU through his role as chairman of the European Research Group (ERG), a powerful Eurosceptic group of backbench Tories.

Referring to Brexit, the fund's prospectus said: “During, and possibly after, this period there is likely to be considerable uncertainty as to the position of the UK and the arrangements which will apply to its relationships with the EU and other countries following its withdrawal.

"This uncertainty may affect other countries in the EU, or elsewhere, if they are considered to be impacted by these events.

"As [the firm is] based in the UK and a fund’s investments may be located in the UK or the EU, a fund may as a result be affected by the events described above.”

The fund also warned its clients directly of the dangers of a hard Brexit, saying it would "increase costs" and make it difficult to pursue its objectives.

Mr Rees-Mogg, (who is a partner at SCM) said:

"The decision to launch the fund was nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit." !!!

(Taken from The Independent but widely reported elsewhere.)

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:51 am

nil_desperandum wrote:I wonder if today's revelation about Rees Mogg's continued hypocrisy will concern committed "leavers" in the slightest.

What's the hypocrisy? Are you saying that his company shouldn't be launching investments in Ireland, or are you saying that he should pretend there are no uncertainties about Brexit?

If it helps, in investment terms, "risks" doesn't mean "dangers". "Risks" means uncertain future events which could affect your decision making. Risks can be positive or negative.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:59 am

This is where we are at.

If there was not a "risk" to Brexit (and that is most definitely in the "negative" category), he wouldn't be moving it to Dublin.

You can call it what you want, but I'll call it as I see it.

John Redwood tells us all that as an MP we should believe in Brexit, he tells investors in his other job to get the money out of the UK because of Brexit

Rees-Mogg firm sets up in Dublin, but its "absolutely nothing to do with Brexit"

Hey, as long as you keep believing this bull, then they will keep taking the p**s out of you (and us)

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:00 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Hi Andy, glad you are still here

Again, does joining the EEA mean you are in the EU?

Joining the EEA means you are a rule taker, not a rule maker, thus not "taking back control of our laws, our borders or our money."

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:08 pm

Hi Andy,

Thanks for the reply, but does joining the EEA mean we are in the EU?

Cheers

android · Post by **android** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:23 pm

Lancaster - there is absolutely nothing in the Rees Mogg SCM story and you have got that all wrong. You clearly know much more about the EU than me but not this.

UK fund managers have been launching funds listed in Ireland for many years and long before the referendum (and it's not a tax dodge either btw but that's another non-story). The fund would have independent directors and it's unlikely JRM would be on the board - he is a director of the management company. The directors of the fund would be duty bound to list uncertainties and risks (pages of the stuff) and would be negligent not to mention Brexit. JRM would not be able to tell them what they can and cannot say! Even if he could, or in the unlikely event he is one of the directors of the fund, it would be ridiculous to expect JRM to be the only person in the country to think that there are no uncertainties and therefore risks associated with Brexit. That is one of the very few things on which we can all agree!

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:26 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Hi Andy,

Thanks for the reply, but does joining the EEA mean we are in the EU?

Cheers

As last night's vote showed there is no majority in parliament for EEA, it's dead in the water, not happening, move on.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:31 pm

Crikey Andy, its almost like you don't want to answer the question. I can't for a minute think why you wouldn't want to do that. I mean, what answer could you possibly give that doesn't reflect that the will and wishes of the referendum vote?

Anyway, Is being the EEA mean that we are in the EU?

Or, if this is easier, do Norway and Iceland think they are in the EU, or not?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:36 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Anyway, Is being the EEA mean that we are in the EU?

Irrelevant parliament voted against it yesterday. Try and move on, with the vast majority of the country.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:37 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Crikey Andy, its almost like you don't want to answer the question. I can't for a minute think why you wouldn't want to do that. I mean, what answer could you possibly give that doesn't reflect that the will and wishes of the referendum vote?

Anyway, Is being the EEA mean that we are in the EU?

Or, if this is easier, do Norway and Iceland think they are in the EU, or not?

You are getting boring now, for the third time EEA has been voted down, not going to happen, no majority for it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:40 pm

Hmmm

Does the EEA mean that we are in the EU, or not?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:41 pm

Dominic Grieve -

" in no way am I attempting to stop Brexit"

He then joins a group of people who have openly avowed to stopping Brexit in a behind closed doors meeting at Europe house in central London.

He's a liar and a treasonous, democracy hating, cockroach.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... prominent/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... on-HQ.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

THE MAJORITY of this treacherous vermins, Beaconsfield, constituents voted to Leave the EU.

Shame on this usurper of democracy and his co-conspirators.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:41 pm

Or put it an even simpler way, would being in the EEA fulfill the mandate of the referendum, which was a binary "Yes" or "No" vote to leave the EU?

I am typing this correctly aren't I?

You can read it ok?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:42 pm

Ah Ringo, good morning!

Maybe you can answer?

Does being in the EEA mean we are in the EU, or not?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:42 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Hmmm

Does the EEA mean that we are in the EU, or not?

We won't be joining it. According to the vote in parliament. But, given that you no more than anybody on the subject of brexit, maybe you're right.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:44 pm

android wrote:Lancaster - there is absolutely nothing in the Rees Mogg SCM story and you have got that all wrong. You clearly know much more about the EU than me but not this.!

Lancs knows more about the EU than anybody, didn't you know!?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:45 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Ah Ringo, good morning!

Maybe you can answer?

Does being in the EEA mean we are in the EU, or not?

Good afternoon.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:48 pm

Sorry Android, missed that. You are quite correct. Going of some stuff on twitter without checking stuff (Ringo/Andy take note!)

Regarding John Redwood though? (you clearly know a lot more about the investment side of things than me) is that fair, or is it just something that looks a lot worse than it is?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:52 pm

Is it the afternoon already?

Time flies when you are having fun.

Now, where were we? Ah

I'm just gong to copy and paste it I think

Does the EEA mean that we are in the EU, or not?

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:09 pm

claretandy wrote:well done to the 15 Labour MP's who voted against joining the EEA, more than enough to nullify any Tory, remoaner rebels.

You mean the vote where Labour MP's had been asked to abstain?

If the Labour party MP's had followed instructions it would have seen the government win anyway due to the fact that its (The Labour Party's) MP's had ABSTAINED.

Do you even understand what is happening or do you jump on anything you mistakenly deem to be some sort of a win?

Here's another question to add to Lancaster's...

Is Labour officially pro or anti-brexit?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:17 pm

The biggest thing about yesterday was the deal on the Northern Irish border.

Its now passed into law (assuming the Lords won't kick it back) that its illegal to have any sort of hard border, which in the absence of "MaxFax" and the fact that the EU and the UK have already agreed on the backstop proposal being used if "MaxFax" isn't ready (as it doesn't exist and isn't in use anywhere in the world its not going to be ready in nine years, let alone nine months) so NI remains in the customs union.

Good luck getting that one squared with red lines and other such stuff.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:30 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:You mean the vote where Labour MP's had been asked to abstain?

If the Labour party MP's had followed instructions it would have seen the government win anyway due to the fact that its (The Labour Party's) MP's had ABSTAINED.

Do you even understand what is happening or do you jump on anything you mistakenly deem to be some sort of a win?

Here's another question to add to Lancaster's...

Is Labour officially pro or anti-brexit?

I understand exactly what's going on, it was a remoaner amendment to make us join the EEA, these 15 labour MP's have shown that any vote to keep us in the EEA would fail, Remoaners are under the illusion that Labour could stop brexit, this shows that they don't have the numbers.

Is labour for or against brexit ? it's hard to tell, they are trying to have their cake and eat it, while it's true that a majority of Labour voters supporrted remain. 2/3rds of Labour constituencies voted leave.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:32 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The biggest thing about yesterday was the deal on the Northern Irish border.

Its now passed into law (assuming the Lords won't kick it back) that its illegal to have any sort of hard border, which in the absence of "MaxFax" and the fact that the EU and the UK have already agreed on the backstop proposal being used if "MaxFax" isn't ready (as it doesn't exist and isn't in use anywhere in the world its not going to be ready in nine years, let alone nine months) so NI remains in the customs union.

Good luck getting that one squared with red lines and other such stuff.

If we stay in the customs union until Max fac is ready, i could live with that.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:35 pm

FFS!

Right, finally we are getting somewhere.

So there isn't a problem with an extended transitional agreement with customs union membership being the backstop until MaxFax is ready or if it proves to be impossible?

That immediately puts you well ahead of ANY pro-brexit MPs in your reasonableness and willingness to compromise. That is remarkable.

android · Post by **android** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:41 pm

Thanks Lancaster(392).

I didn't pay much attention to the Redwood story, probably because I didn't think there was anything in that either. As far as I can remember either he, or his firm, advised their clients to reduce holdings in UK shares and add to overseas holdings.

If it was written by him he would still have to take some account of his colleagues views. His fund manager colleagues would almost certainly have been overwhelmingly pro Remain and negative on Brexit. But there is not much correlation between UK share prices and the UK economy anyway, especially in the short term. There is nothing inconsistent between thinking UK share prices are going to be relatively weak in the short term (not necessarily fall but not rise as much) due to Brexit (and fund managers hate uncertainty) while still believing (as Redwood does) that Brexit will be a success.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:FFS!

Right, finally we are getting somewhere.

So there isn't a problem with an extended transitional agreement with customs union membership being the backstop until MaxFax is ready or if it proves to be impossible?

That immediately puts you well ahead of ANY pro-brexit MPs in your reasonableness and willingness to compromise. That is remarkable.

I wouldn't go that far, i'm not a redwood or a mogg, but the backstop can't be forever.