Possible 2nd EU Referendum

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:14 pm

So an official announcement for another Referendum,will this gain traction guess we'll have to wait and see.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44413526.My experience is that people on both sides just want something decided,either a deal with the 27 remaining EU members or the government changing tack and staying in,can't see myself how the latter option is viable for the Conservatives without splitting the cabinet,equally there has been little progress on a frictionless trade deal,which impacts the Good Friday Agreement.I suspect Parliament will next week try and back the Lords amendments and vote for close ties with Europe (Single Market Membership) and all that entails,how the senior brexitters react will be crucial,i can't see how mayhem can keep the cabinet united,it's possible we may be heading to the polls again soon

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Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:18 pm

There will be another election first before another referendum. Both sides are convinced they will win a landslide referendum (which just about sums up the whole sorry shitshow) and an election will give either side an idea of how batshit mental that is (or isn't)

DCWat · Post by **DCWat** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:20 pm

So what would be the alternative vote? Vote yes if you like the deal on the table, vote No for what?

Surely there needs to be an alternative and one that doesn’t undermine the outcome of the original vote.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:25 pm

Could be a fundamental, if possibly transient, shift in British politics. The leafy shires are much more aligned with something Corbyn could put his name to (even though he really wants out as much as Boris) and the northern Labour heartlands are more aligned to the 'hard Brexit' position. The former feel like the ungrateful proles are dragging them out of the EU, the latter will feel any more delay or softening simply confirms their feeling that they are not listened to until they say the right thing. If Labour could field someone a little more mainstream or if the Tories could field someone who looks better to a Northern audience, it could be really interesting.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:25 pm

It's not "an announcement for another referendum"; it's yet another lobby group trying to banjax the democratic vote to leave.
The fact that this group is backed by "billionaire George Soros" tells you just about all you need to know.
His wiki profole says he is Hungarian-American and that " He is known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England" because of his short sale of US$10 billion worth of Pound sterling, making him a profit of $1 billion during the 1992 Black Wednesday UK currency crisis."

Does that suggest he has the desires/welfare of the British people close to his heart?

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:26 pm

Hmm another click bait thread. What's going on?

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:27 pm

DCWat wrote:So what would be the alternative vote? Vote yes if you like the deal on the table, vote No for what?

Surely there needs to be an alternative and one that doesn’t undermine the outcome of the original vote.

Yes, the complaint of Remain that 'Leave' was too simplistic an option would just be mirrored - but this time on both sides. Rebate? Schengen? Euro? Are all those exemptions going to be on the table if we go back with our tail between our legs?

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:29 pm

Soros has made it quite clear that the UK is wanted as a cash cow for the EU. No thanks. UEFA has made it quite clear that there is a mandate to create the 4th Reich of EURASIA. Baku??????? Cuckoo....

Of course if the EUROPA final is there, then it's not just Baku it's Xanadu and we all desperately want to make it to be there.

CH (Swizzel-land) ch ch ch ch ch.... Here KITTY KITTY KITTY.... ch ch ch Here KITTY KITTY KITTY...

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:44 pm

Lol. More Soros paranoia.

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:52 pm

No. Just no.

Burnley Ace · Post by **Burnley Ace** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:56 pm

We should stay in and just fuckem from the inside:-)

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:59 pm

Switzerland isn't in the EU

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:04 pm

With 73% of all British voters and 70% of Leave voters now thinking that Brexit is going badly, I don't think the public having another say on the matter would be a terrible thing.

Falcon · Post by **Falcon** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:22 pm

If the options are "hard Brexit" and "stay in EU as we were" that's going to leave a hell of a lot of people who want something in the middle.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:27 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:With 73% of all British voters and 70% of Leave voters now thinking that Brexit is going badly, I don't think the public having another say on the matter would be a terrible thing.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:27 pm

Brexit is going badly because 1) most MPs don't want it 2) most of the Lords don't want it 3) half the cabinet don't want it 4)most of the important civil service staff don't want it 5)big business doesn't want it 6) the remaining 27 don't want it and 7) tiny little NI is the tail wagging what's left of the dog!!!!!!!

Caballo · Post by **Caballo** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:32 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:With 73% of all British voters and 70% of Leave voters now thinking that Brexit is going badly, I don't think the public having another say on the matter would be a terrible thing.

Playing with symantics I realise, but that's not quite what the you gov poll says. Negotiations aren't going as I'd hoped they would, much more like I thought they would, I don't see how the 'opposition' would be more amenable though if they knew there was a veto on the table at the end of it all.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:38 pm

mdd2 wrote:Brexit is going badly because 1) most MPs don't want it 2) most of the Lords don't want it 3) half the cabinet don't want it 4)most of the important civil service staff don't want it 5)big business doesn't want it 6) the remaining 27 don't want it and 7) tiny little NI is the tail wagging what's left of the dog!!!!!!!

You don't think that the "competence" of the Prime Minister is a relevant factor?

Vino blanco · Post by **Vino blanco** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:44 pm

I think we should have an in or out referendum on Europe every two or three years. It's great fun and keeps message boards like this really, really interesting.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:47 pm

Of course it is, but she is trying to deliver the promised impossible dream to people who don't listen to anyone who tells them that its impossible.

The damage the grandstanding by both sides (but particularly the back bench Brexiteers in the last week) is doing to the country is appalling.

There is almost certainly going to be a Chilcott type enquiry when all this has calmed down, and some politicians should be running for the hills in preparation for it.

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:50 pm

As a remainer and a democrat I’m quite happy to accept that leave won.
What ticks me off after a 51%-49% vote is extremist leavers, who Teresa May has put in charge, telling us that the public demand a hard brexit. I would suggest that the 49% remain and more than 2% leave would rather have a soft brexit to protect jobs.

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:50 pm

I think the only thing we have got wrong is leaving up to Politicians to resolve the details of leaving the EU. Some bloke from the Big Window morning drinking crowd could have achieved as much as them at this point in time.

brexit · Post by **brexit** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:57 pm

With the German economy about to go into recession https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -intensify" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and the french economy slowing https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/france" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
The EU is beginning to panic there will be a deal done soon.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:57 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Of course it is, but she is trying to deliver the promised impossible dream to people who don't listen to anyone who tells them that its impossible.

The damage the grandstanding by both sides (but particularly the back bench Brexiteers in the last week) is doing to the country is appalling.

There is almost certainly going to be a Chilcott type enquiry when all this has calmed down, and some politicians should be running for the hills in preparation for it.

Rolling over and giving the EU what they want isn't the right way to cope with their tactics. If the Scots had won their independence referendum, and assuming (which I think is unlikely) that the UK had taken the same tone with Scotland as the EU has with the UK, do you think that Salmond and/or Sturgeon would be as hopeless as May has been?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:01 pm

You've lost the argument countless times on here DSR, so there isn't any point revisiting it.

I'd be happy if the leaving arrangement meant as little disruption to our lives as possible, done over a sensible time scale. I'm sure that is the case for well over 50% of the population, but it people keep insisting on unicorn based ******** and impossible to meet deadlines for stuff just because they are paranoid that people might wake up to the **** they have been spun, then I'm full on remain.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:11 pm

Falcon wrote:If the options are "hard Brexit" and "stay in EU as we were" that's going to leave a hell of a lot of people who want something in the middle.

There would have to be more options than that if there were to be any chance of some form of consensus and bringing the country together.
IMO there would need to be at least 3 options and preferably up to about 5 so that the various middle ground options could be included. It's not impossible to devise a method by which people could express 1st, 2nd and 3rd options, or have a single transferable vote; or to be really open, fair and democratic you could have more than one round of voting as in the French Presidential elections. It wouldn't matter if the process took a few months, since we are already signed up to a lengthy transitional phase, and it would actually provide the opportunity for the open and honest debates that we never had prior to the 2016 sprint to the ballot box.
FWIW - however, I think the chances of there being a referendum on the final deal are very slim indeed.
Most likely there will be a "May inspired" fudged deal that ultimately satisfies no one and the issue will just continue to rumble on and hold the country back for another decade.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:18 pm

brexit wrote:With the German economy about to go into recession https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -intensify" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and the french economy slowing https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/france" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
The EU is beginning to panic there will be a deal done soon.

Where does the article say or imply that the German economy is "about to go into recession"?
And this was the summary of the 2nd article:
"the economy is in good shape: Unemployment declined to a new multi-year low in March, while the implementation of reforms and the government’s commitment to reining in fiscal spending to comply with EU fiscal responsibility rules led Moody’s to upgrade the country’s credit outlook to “positive” in early May. The controversial SNCF reform bill made its way to the senate on 23 May, where it is expected to be voted into law on 5 June."

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:35 pm

The proposal is for a vote to accept the deal negotiated. Or remain in the EU! (Conveniently overlooking that 17.4 million voted to Leave it, in the biggest single expression of democracy the UK has witnessed!)

Now given that the EU wants us to remain in the European Union and continue contributing 20 billion,or so, each year. If it knows that a poor deal will be rejected by the People. It will go out of its way to offer the worst deal imaginable!

Thus guaranteeing a "no thanks" vote from the British People and completely usurping the 2016 referendum and it's business as usual. We don't leave the EU.

It's simply another on the long line of cynical attempts to thwart the Will of the People. By ceaseless and classless Remoaners who simply cannot accept they lost, with any dignity or grace.

People's Vote? - No. The Poor Losers Last Desperate Throw of the Dice. ( Backed by a shameless, immoral foreign billionaire )

If last night's Question Time was anything to go by. With several remainers, both on the panel, and in the audience, sayimg they want to see the result enacted. (And it was the same all series.) Calls for another referendum will be met by, " we only need to be asked once. Now get on with it."

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:06 pm

Remainers still literally have no understanding of how negotiations work

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:18 pm

An “informed” referendum is inevitable, as the last one was not.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:54 pm

Dunno about that Damo, I reckon a good few on here could do a damn sight a better job

You can't negotiate with anyone if what you have is "red lines" that actually are completely incompatible with each other for starters.

It shows that you are not serious. How can you not be serious about something as important to the country as this?

And that is before you understand that the ONLY way we get out of this with the UK intact is if we make sure we do so as little disruption as possible to the economy. We are at the stage where anyone who has a scooby about global industry is well aware that we've already lost billions of potential investment because of the uncertainty.

As long as clowns like Johnson, Bone, Farage et al continue to wag the dog, then we are going to take a hell of a hit.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:16 pm

In most negotiations both sides have something to offer the other, whereas in this case, one side has held virtually all the cards from day one.
As Lancaster points out TM's incompatible red-lines mean that no arbitrator, let alone the "opposing" side can take our position seriously.
Added to this, it is the UK's decision to leave, not the EU that are kicking us out. However the UK still wants to keep all the best bits of the EU, but as we have set deadlines for leaving then the EU can dictate the terms by which we can have the bits we want.
Finally, the EU has known from the day that we triggered Article 50 that - despite the rhetoric, the UK has to agree to a deal unless we want short term chaos with no flights, no co-operation on security, borders, science. drugs etc.
Of course there will be negative effects for the EU countries as well, but as Remainers have continually pointed out this pain will be shared by 27 separate countries, and they will stand together. We'll feel the full force.
But as Farage tweeted this week: “After Brexit whether for good or ill, we will be self-governing. That’s the point. I never said it would be a beneficial thing to leave and everyone would be better off, just that we would be self-governing."

Right_winger · Post by **Right_winger** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:18 pm

So many people sucked into the we need the EU rhetoric.

It’s not difficult to walk away From the project and adjust our economy/taxes to be more competitive and compete with the EU.

Most people would take a short term hit for a long term gain.

Sadly I feel that we will never unshackle ourselves from Brussels as it’s not in our career politicians personal interests to do so. more unfortunately the EU is going I implode at some point aswell and “we” the British taxpayers will get fleeced yet again to help them out.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:24 pm

Right_winger wrote:So many people sucked into the we need the EU rhetoric.

It’s not difficult to walk away From the project and adjust our economy/taxes to be more competitive and compete with the EU.

Most people would take a short term hit for a long term gain.

Sadly I feel that we will never unshackle ourselves from Brussels as it’s not in our career politicians personal interests to do so. more unfortunately the EU is going I implode at some point aswell and “we” the British taxpayers will get fleeced yet again to help them out.

You say 'short term hit' as if it's just someone taking a fiver from you.

Do you understand that a short term hit means job losses?

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:27 pm

Right_winger wrote:So many people sucked into the we need the EU rhetoric.

It’s not difficult to walk away From the project and adjust our economy/taxes to be more competitive and compete with the EU.

.

Do you know how many international treaties we will be cancelling if we simply walk away as you and some others suggest?

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:33 pm

At least we have an explanation for the "hard brexit" that both sides cannot afford

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:41 pm

If the vote had of been 51% to stay in would our terms of membership have been renegotiated to appease the 49% who wanted out ? Would it F ! They want it all there own way. Clean break was voted for clean break it should be. We buy so much more than we sell to them. We contribute more than we take out. The EU budget has never been passed by auditors. It a beurocratic dinosaur that's had its day.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:42 pm

Damo wrote:At least we have an explanation for the "hard brexit" that both sides cannot afford

So, can you give some examples of how a "No deal" scenario would have an immediate "cliff-edge" effect on any of the 27 remaining EU states. Everything would just continue as before in most areas. There would be some economic consequences over time, but in the short term it's hard to imagine how we would cope with no treaties or protocols in place.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:45 pm

It’s not difficult to walk away From the project and adjust our economy/taxes to be more competitive and compete with the EU.

I don't know what level of seriousness that post is, but its up there with the worst I've heard in two years on here.

It takes time to do what you suggest. It makes perfect sense to leave slowly, giving ourselves a chance to readjust. It makes absolutely no sense at all to do what you suggest.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:51 pm

bfcjg wrote: They want it all there own way. Clean break was voted for clean break it should be. .

Says who?
I don't think anyone campaigned on the basis of a "clean break", and even now there's only a small hard core of right wingers in government who are raising it as a possibility, (in a misguided belief that in some way it strengthens our negotiating position, whereas in fact it makes us look stupid)

Woodleyclaret · Post by **Woodleyclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:58 pm

No chance we won the last one nows the time to stop farting about and leave.Its dragging on far too long as it is

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:01 pm

Says a lot of people. If we had voted to stay in would we have renegotiated to appease us who voted out ? No we would have just taken all the garbage and rules the unelected beurocratic fascists tell us to adhere to.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:23 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Says who?
I don't think anyone campaigned on the basis of a "clean break", and even now there's only a small hard core of right wingers in government who are raising it as a possibility, (in a misguided belief that in some way it strengthens our negotiating position, whereas in fact it makes us look stupid)

Hi nil_d, a good a place for me to make a few comments as any other.

I contend that David Cameron and all the remain campaigners "campaigned" that if "leave" got the majority in the referendum, then it would be a "clean break." Yes, they also described all the negative consequences of such a vote. I don't think it matters whether their "forecasts" were accurate or not, but whether they were or they weren't they described the worst of the worst "hard brexit" - and yet, 52% voted for it.

What disappoints me is firstly how the EU agreed a treaty (Lisbon, I think) that included Article 50, the right of a member state to choose to leave and, then, when a member has chosen to leave there is a vacuum in the Treaty and the erstwhile friendly member states can create so many difficulties in the manner of departure for the member state that has exercised Art 50. It would be so much better if the EU was looking beyond "you are an outsider now" and were taking the view "you were a friend and a member before.... and we want you to remain a friend even when you are an ex-member."

If the EU (and I include the UK in this criticism) had thought what they were doing when they agreed Art 50, they would have also have defined the new relations that would have existed afterwards. If they'd been "progressive and forward thinking" they'd have defined the status of an "ex-member state" - and ensured that this was more favourable than the arrangements for any state that was outside the EU and never been a member of the EU.

We can take the UK out of the equation and instead imagine any other of the 28 choosing to leave - and we would all want the EU to "continue to hold out the hand of friendship" to the departing member state. Imagine if it was Italy that was leaving, or Spain or RoI, or Poland or Hungary.... you get the picture, I hope.

bartons baggage · Post by **bartons baggage** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:46 pm

tiger76 wrote:So an official announcement for another Referendum,will this gain traction guess we'll have to wait and see.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44413526.My experience is that people on both sides just want something decided,either a deal with the 27 remaining EU members or the government changing tack and staying in,can't see myself how the latter option is viable for the Conservatives without splitting the cabinet,equally there has been little progress on a frictionless trade deal,which impacts the Good Friday Agreement.I suspect Parliament will next week try and back the Lords amendments and vote for close ties with Europe (Single Market Membership) and all that entails,how the senior brexitters react will be crucial,i can't see how mayhem can keep the cabinet united,it's possible we may be heading to the polls again soon .

I'm a patriot and Brexit means Brexit.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:48 pm

I'm a patriot and Brexit needs to be managed a hell of a lot better than it is at the moment

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:59 pm

It will never be managed properly as someone above pointed out the politicians have too much to lose. They're all at the gravy train and do nothing like serving the people.

bartons baggage · Post by **bartons baggage** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:07 pm

It's all heading to a civil war.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:11 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:So, can you give some examples of how a "No deal" scenario would have an immediate "cliff-edge" effect on any of the 27 remaining EU states. Everything would just continue as before in most areas. There would be some economic consequences over time, but in the short term it's hard to imagine how we would cope with no treaties or protocols in place.

I'm not sure where I mentioned the situation you asked me to give examples of.
If we are going down that route though, please provide examples of situations where the net 2nd contributer to the EU leaving would be beneficial to the union

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:12 pm

Young v Old?

its not a contest, COD players v people who think about a war they all missed by at least twenty years.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:25 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:So, can you give some examples of how a "No deal" scenario would have an immediate "cliff-edge" effect on any of the 27 remaining EU states. Everything would just continue as before in most areas. There would be some economic consequences over time, but in the short term it's hard to imagine how we would cope with no treaties or protocols in place.

What about the tourism trade if as some make out we couldn't fly to Europe.
Spain wouldn't cope without British holiday makers.