384 million extra a week for NHS after Brexit.

[Imploding Turtle]

Leave won by promising we could stay in things like the single market. Had they not made these promises they'd never have won given how narrow the margin was. Any attempt at a Brexit that doesn't keep these promises shoudl be fought against.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[martin_p]

Sky News segment, with facts and figures (do not watch if you believe in unicorns)

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1 ... 0039196672" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yeah but Sky is full of lefties and remoaners, like Kay Burley and Adam Bolton

[nil_desperandum]

Sky News segment, with facts and figures (do not watch if you believe in unicorns)

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1 ... 0039196672" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Surely this is inaccurate?
It claims that we send £18 billion / year to the EU, when in fact we only send less than £14 billion due to the rebate, and of course we also get around £5 billion back in subsidies etc, so according to our own government (treasury) figures the net amount is less than £9 billion.
(I thought I would point out the error before one of our resident brexiteers spots it).

[martin_p]

Surely this is inaccurate?
It claims that we send £18 billion / year to the EU, when in fact we only send less than £14 billion due to the rebate, and of course we also get around £5 billion back in subsidies etc, so according to our own government (treasury) figures the net amount is less than £9 billion.
(I thought I would point out the error before one of our resident brexiteers spots it).

Ah! It’s fake news then. They can safely ignore it.

[nil_desperandum]

Ah! It’s fake news then. They can safely ignore it.

I've no doubt they will.

[Imploding Turtle]

Surely this is inaccurate?
It claims that we send £18 billion / year to the EU, when in fact we only send less than £14 billion due to the rebate, and of course we also get around £5 billion back in subsidies etc, so according to our own government (treasury) figures the net amount is less than £9 billion.
(I thought I would point out the error before one of our resident brexiteers spots it).

So the shortfall for the £20bn increase funded by the "Brexit Dividend" is actually around £47bn? That's impressive.

[CrosspoolClarets]

So essentially, despite all the evidence and thirty years of chatting to the public (in his golf club in case we forget), Crosspool still believes in a Brexit dividend, and a bigger one in the event of a no-deal.

Mental, absolutely mental levels of believing in Brexit on a religous level I've not seen since I visited the Mormons in Salt Lake City.

Sorry Lancs, I’m afraid I don’t understand any of that.

A Brexit dividend is a term invented by the media, and which some politicians now choose to use. What I said was that leaving will free up the cash, more cash if there is a no deal (due to no settlement payment) but there is a chance it could damage the economy which will be found out at a later date (economic effects will take a while to establish, and it will never be clear how much of a dip is due to Brexit).

Thus I don’t think I am saying much that is different, I’m just separating out the initial saving to the need to later address any economic impact. The former can be used for the NHS. The latter will need new savings if it comes to pass.

I’m not sure where your golf club stuff comes in, the other point I was making is that I have spent time in the past negotiating health contracts (with Jeremy Hunt equivalents) and 2018 is not the time I have witnessed the greatest case of need, so the decision to fund this size of uplift is purely political.

It isn’t about believing in Brexit (though I do), it’s about choosing not to believe in it, seizing on any negative storyline (not evidence, that’s the wrong word). I think the government is messing the negotiation up, but I believe the end outcome will be about who is sold down the river. I believe that will be the Irish (irrelevant to wider Europe when it boils down to it) due to a Max Fac customs deal, and Brexit voters (I believe we will stay in the single market via the EEA with a new compromise on free movement). I thus think the economic impact will be minor.

[Imploding Turtle]

It doesn't matter if the mdeia invented the term or not. The PM used it because she liked it and thought we were stupid enough to swallow such bullshit.

[Lancasterclaret]

Cheers Crosspool

As IT said, its the term being used by the PM to try to cover tax rises

Basically, there isn't going to be a Brexit dividend, as the economy will take a hit readjusting to whatever deal we get (or a new deal scenario). We are lucky that the government did a lot of work (after the referendum mind, but still, is been done) telling us all about how these deals (or no deal) would affect the economy. All affect it negatively, so we'll be losing billions. Whats a few billions though eh?

And regarding the comment on the religous like fervour that Brexiteers have, that is simply because there isn't any evidence at all to justify the messianic faith you all have in this. To someone rational like me, its exactly the same as a religion.

Which also answers the other point you made about people not believing in Brexit. There isn't anything to believe in if you look at it from my point of view and the failure over the last two years of Brexiteers to move on from "will of the people" and "traitors" suggests that they too know that there isn't anything else.

Thoroughly depressing, and the only chink of light (and its not really a chink) is that people are at least acknowledging that we are going to take a hit. Not ideal, and far too late but at least people shouldn't completely surprised now when it all doesn't go well.

[Lancasterclaret]

Ohhh, and very interesting

This extra money for the NHS is England only, not Scotland, Wales or NI.

[South West Claret.]

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans face rejection by parliament’s upper chamber on Monday, setting the stage for a high-stakes confrontation with rebel lawmakers later in the week which could rock her minority government.

[Right_winger]

The lords want abolished along with the regional assemblies.. think of the cash that would save.

[South West Claret.]

“The Brexit dividend tosh was expected but treats the public as fools. Sad to see Govt slide to populist arguments rather than evidence on such an important issue. This will make it harder to have a rational debate about the ‘who & how’ of funding & sharing this fairly.”

So says Conservative MP Sara Woolerston today.

Even their own MP thinks it’s tosh.

[KateR]

think everyone agrees the NHS need more money, more spending also been promised for extra policing, maybe not everyone agrees but it is going to be spent they say, few other things are going to need increased spending.

So May says this is going to happen then we should all applaud but no, it's the opportunity to knock yet again, Labour have a magic money tree so I think it's only fair Tories can have a Brexit Bonus, for me I don't really care where it comes from or what anyone wants to label it, just as long as it happens.

Labour counter attack by stating it's not enough, even though it was more than what they recently promised in increased spending, yet they jump on the bandwagon and state whatever is realized from the Bonus we will add more to it so, look at us we will do more even though we don't know what it is! Where is the extra coming from, ahh yes the tax of people and Corporate Tax, they have there own Brexit agenda, we'll just increase tax, force people and companies out of Britain, that will help immigration, will help the number of people using the NHS, drive business away, people wont need extra money, they wont be able to go to work, will reduce congestion and ease the environment, trains will be empty so we can run them less and hopefully they will be on time for no one to use. D Abbott will sort the policing dilemma toot sweet, she's got her numbers bang on, can't understand what the problem with this is at all, she wont need any extra money so that's more to go to the NHS and the unions and more political music festivals.

All a little bit tongue in cheek but come on, expecting politicians to tell the truth is just a bit far fetched for me and wont swallow that one. I'd be really happy for anyone in an opposition party to actually say something positive about the other party when they do something rather than simply find something negative and go on the attack.

[nil_desperandum]

The lords want abolished along with the regional assemblies.. think of the cash that would save.

We haven't even got one yet!

[cblantfanclub]

"toot sweet" it is then. We never did get on with the French Sweet Fairy Anne.

[Damo]

Some of you need to take note
https://youtu.be/eEaEBmpu-4o" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Imploding Turtle]

The lords want abolished along with the regional assemblies.. think of the cash that would save.

Abolish the parts of the government that are getting in your way. Your version of democracy is hilarious.

There should definitely be an elected upper chamber, so it needs reform, but it's funny to see how and when you finally decided to (almost) agree with the likes of me.

[SmudgetheClaret]

How come the remain forecasts always shows the cost of parting company with the EU as though there will be absolutely no ongoing trade at all with the EU it's simply not going to happen that's your unicorn remain view right there..

[Imploding Turtle]

How come the remain forecasts always shows the cost of parting company with the EU as though there will be absolutely no ongoing trade at all with the EU it's simply not going to happen that's your unicorn remain view right there..

Which forecasts?

[CrosspoolClarets]

How come the remain forecasts always shows the cost of parting company with the EU as though there will be absolutely no ongoing trade at all with the EU it's simply not going to happen that's your unicorn remain view right there..

This is very true. It is one of the cognitive biases we see every day, particularly in the media. That’s why Brexit voters get annoyed, every analysis has a grain of truth but more than a grain of bias.

The other thing is the Remain view of the Brexit dividend - typically when modelling the cost of staying they show the subs as staying the same year after year (in reality it would increase hugely as it has for decades), and for modelling the cost of leaving they show the economic hit but not the potential benefits (economic models should show both, multiplied in a simplistic sense by the odds of each happening).

The cost of staying bit I mention above is the reason the “Brexit dividend” may in fact exist, because the so called expert economists haven’t factored in the risks of staying, such as the EU coming cap in hand.

[nil_desperandum]

SmudgetheClaret wrote:
How come the remain forecasts always shows the cost of parting company with the EU as though there will be absolutely no ongoing trade at all with the EU it's simply not going to happen that's your unicorn remain view right there..

This is very true. It is one of the cognitive biases we see every day, particularly in the media. That’s why Brexit voters get annoyed, every analysis has a grain of truth but more than a grain of bias.

So to repeat IT's question: Which remain forecasts are based on the assumption that there will be "absolutely no ongoing trade at all with the EU"?
So far as I have read, the most negative forecasts are based on a "No deal" scenario with us reverting to WTO rules.
The more positive forecasts assume that we will be able to agree some form of deal.

[RingoMcCartney]

I listened to an interview with John Longworth last week. He's the former chairman of the British Chamber of commerce, forced out for being pro Leave.

He pointed out that given the fall in the pound. If we were to go to WTO rules, despite increased in tariffs, exporters would be slightly better off, overall than pre referendum. No surprise then, that purchasing managers order books are at their highest for decades.

When asked about the potential negative impact on the flip side for importers. He pointed out that he expects that will incentivise manufactures and and entrepreneurs to combine to develop home grown supply chains.

Reasons to be cheerful.

[RingoMcCartney]

This is very true. It is one of the cognitive biases we see every day, particularly in the media. That’s why Brexit voters get annoyed, every analysis has a grain of truth but more than a grain of bias.

The other thing is the Remain view of the Brexit dividend - typically when modelling the cost of staying they show the subs as staying the same year after year (in reality it would increase hugely as it has for decades), and for modelling the cost of leaving they show the economic hit but not the potential benefits (economic models should show both, multiplied in a simplistic sense by the odds of each happening).

The cost of staying bit I mention above is the reason the “Brexit dividend” may in fact exist, because the so called expert economists haven’t factored in the risks of staying, such as the EU coming cap in hand.

You say, " the subs as staying the same year after year (in reality it would increase hugely as it has for decades "

This was the difference between a soft remain or a hard remain.

A soft remain, would be saying the subs we are paying now, should not increase, as they have done till now.

A Hard Remain, would be saying the subs should continue to rise come what may.

Remainers, the few that were actually educated to such a level, to actually understand what they were voting for. Voted for many reasons. Some clearly wanted a Soft Remain others, the real EU nationalists, were voting for a Hard Remain.

[martin_p]

I listened to an interview with John Longworth last week. He's the former chairman of the British Chamber of commerce, forced out for being pro Leave.

He pointed out that given the fall in the pound. If we were to go to WTO rules, despite increased in tariffs, exporters would be slightly better off, overall than pre referendum. No surprise then, that purchasing managers order books are at their highest for decades.

When asked about the potential negative impact on the flip side for importers. He pointed out that he expects that will incentivise manufactures and and entrepreneurs to combine to develop home grown supply chains.

Reasons to be cheerful.

You’re believing this without any evidence!??

[aggi]

Do Leave just not bother with any forecasts? I asked a while ago if anyone could point me in the direction of any positive Brexit economic impacts and no-one did. Is it still the case that, by some weird coincidence, all the forecasts are negative or are there some respectable forecasts pointing the other way?

[Imploding Turtle]

So to repeat IT's question: Which remain forecasts are based on the assumption that there will be "absolutely no ongoing trade at all with the EU"?
So far as I have read, the most negative forecasts are based on a "No deal" scenario with us reverting to WTO rules.
The more positive forecasts assume that we will be able to agree some form of deal.

It's funny how often these people are flummoxed by the most simple of questions. They make a claim and you ask the most obvious follow up question and they can't provide an answer. Maybe one will come, but i don't expect it.

[claretandy]

Do Leave just not bother with any forecasts? I asked a while ago if anyone could point me in the direction of any positive Brexit economic impacts and no-one did. Is it still the case that, by some weird coincidence, all the forecasts are negative or are there some respectable forecasts pointing the other way?

Name the last economic forecast that was right ?

[Imploding Turtle]

Name the last economic forecast that was right ?

Just by asking this question it's clear you don't know what "forecast" means.

[claretandy]

Just by asking this question it's clear you don't know what "forecast" means.

So what you are saying is forecasts are just that, a forecast, and not a fact.

[claretandy]

Hard remain future EU payments

[Lancasterclaret]

There are no "pro-Brexit" economic forecasts

What there are though are very isolated economic theorists (one in particular whose name escapes me) who are quoted a lot by Brexiteers but there are literally hundreds of other economic theorists saying that their model won't work and then there are a very few businessmen who say it will be great, but again, extremely vague on how this actually is the case.

Course, if you are as Brexit as andy and others are, then it doesn't matter.

Its a religion, a cult almost.

[RingoMcCartney]

You’re believing this without any evidence!??

If I needed evidence you'd be the last person id come to.

It's nearly a year since you claimed you had evidence that ending free movement of people would not help to stop exploitation, people trafficking and modern day salary.

Still waiting Marty. Tick tock.....tick tock..........

Former chairman of the British Chamber of Commerce 1. Marty 0

[aggi]

Name the last economic forecast that was right ?

I'm not expecting any individual forecast to be correct. However, if every forecast is independently saying a similar thing (including those commissioned by third parties such as American think tanks) it seems an indicator that they'll be in the ballpark.

[RingoMcCartney]

So what you are saying is forecasts are just that, a forecast, and not a fact.

It's the time honoured favourite technique of all europhiles. Point to doom laden predictions, then when they fail to materialise, they shrug their shoulders and say" well they were only predictions after all"

They did exactly the same with Leaving the ERM. Exactly the same when they were pushing for the UK to join the single currency, ("The UK will be an economic backwater""Britain will be left cut adrift somewhere in the mid Atlantic" they FORECAST) and they did it in the run up to the referendum.( 850,000 extra unemployed by now, an emergency budget on the 24th June would be necessary)

When time proves they were fear mongering lies. They then try and use the get out of jail free card of, "It was just a prediction!"

Brexiteers aren't obsessed with forecasts. Just certain that the single biggest expression of democracy the UK has witnessed, is, as promised by HM Government, should be enacted.

[nil_desperandum]

Hard remain future EU payments

Since you've posted the graph. Could you please explain why it shows our payments to the EU going up after 2041?
Seems strange if we have left.

[quoonbeatz]

we rejoin in 2041.

[nil_desperandum]

we're rejoining in 2041.

You mean it's going to take over 20 years to renegotiate our rejoining terms? or will it just be a long transition period?

[Lancasterclaret]

I think that is when the last brexiteer admits he may have been wrong about everything

[nil_desperandum]

I think that is when the last brexiteer admits he may have been wrong about everything

No, that will never happen, you can't give up on your religion, but it could be based on life-expectancy stats.

[Lancasterclaret]

I was going to make that gag, then realised I'd spend the rest of my life on here with Ringo et al going "So you think we should all be killed then? Whose the fascist now eh?"

[nil_desperandum]

I was going to make that gag, then realised I'd spend the rest of my life on here with Ringo et al going "So you think we should all be killed then? Whose the fascist now eh?"

Yes, I knew it was a risk, and therefore tried to word it carefully.
Anyway me and Ringo have a mutual concordat nowadays. Had you not noticed?

[Lancasterclaret]

To be honest I must have missed it.

I think its safe to say that we've all reached some sort of consensus on leaving the EU, but how we do it and what it all means is still proving ever so slightly problematic.

I still can't get my head around that people think the main people backing leave aren't part of some global elite.

[UpTheBeehole]

Average Life expectancy is 88 years old

Average Brexit voter is aged 65.

88 - 65 = 23.

2018 + 23 = 2041


2041 is when the average brexiteer pops it.

Fill our boots time when they start going en masse.

[nil_desperandum]

2041 is when the average brexiteer pops it.

Fill our boots time when they start going en masse.

Not very helpful to our debate I'm afraid, - a smiley might have helped.
Some of us are looking for some kind of consensus.

[RingoMcCartney]

One flaw in the plan. What if by 2041, all your forecasts and predictions have been proven to be the hollow fear mongering lies they have been up to now!?

I've seen the latest desperate throw of the dice by Remoaners. Trying to encourage the political wing of the IRA to break their self imposed abstention from Westminster to try and join with the forces against democracy to swing the vote in parliament! Embarrassing.

But

Calculating when people who hold a different opinion to yourself, are likely to die.

Ghoulish and desperate in equal measure.

Class.

[Lancasterclaret]

See what I mean?

[nil_desperandum]

One flaw in the plan. What if by 2041, all your forecasts and predictions have been proven to be the hollow fear mongering lies they have been up to now!?
.

Hi Ringo,
In context my comment was clearly tongue in cheek, (i'm sure you recognise).
However my question remains.
If we are to take Claretandy's chart seriously he needs to explain why it shows our payments to the EU going up from 2041, otherwise we might just think its all nonsense.

[RingoMcCartney]

Hi Ringo,
In context my comment was clearly tongue in cheek, (i'm sure you recognise).
However my question remains.
If we are to take Claretandy's chart seriously he needs to explain why it shows our payments to the EU going up from 2041, otherwise we might just think its all nonsense.

It's his chart not mine. Given him a chance to go into more detail.

My post was aimed more at Uphisownhole doing the maths on people passing. But, by all means if the cap fits, I'm more than happy for you to pop it on.

[claretandy]

Hi Ringo,
In context my comment was clearly tongue in cheek, (i'm sure you recognise).
However my question remains.
If we are to take Claretandy's chart seriously he needs to explain why it shows our payments to the EU going up from 2041, otherwise we might just think its all nonsense.

My answer is, i don't know, one guess would be EU pensions ?

I posted it to show the grey area, i.e rising future EU payments if we had remained.