Magic Numbers 2018/2019
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Following Cardiff's win, I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
We haven't got up to a point per game all season, i would suggest 38 would be enough.fidelcastro wrote:Following Cardiff's win, I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
With most of week 25 completed, all sides from Brighton down have played ......
With most of week 25 completed, all sides from Brighton down have played ......
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Taken from the thread about how many points required.fidelcastro wrote:Following Cardiff's win, I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.
At this stage - 25 matches gone in the last five seasons and the total after 38 matches:
18/19 - 22 pts. 18th finished on ???
17/18 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 33 pts
16/17 - 20 pts. 18th finished on 34 pts
15/16 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 37 pts
14/15 - 22 pts. 18th finished on 35 pts
Think the record number is 42.
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
We also have the toughest games ahead IMO.
Cardiff have Watford, Everton WHU Liverpool Fulham, Palace and Chelsea at home with us Southampton Brighton Wolves City and Utd away and then us
Spurs, City, Arsenal Cardiff, Leicester Palace and Wolves at home and Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Cardiff have Watford, Everton WHU Liverpool Fulham, Palace and Chelsea at home with us Southampton Brighton Wolves City and Utd away and then us
Spurs, City, Arsenal Cardiff, Leicester Palace and Wolves at home and Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Not sure I agree, mdd2. Our 3 easiest home and away games (on paper) i e where we're most likely to pick up points, would be Cardiff, Palace and Leicester then Brighton, Newcastle and perhaps, Everton.mdd2 wrote:We also have the toughest games ahead IMO.
Cardiff have Watford, Everton WHU Liverpool Fulham, Palace and Chelsea at home with us Southampton Brighton Wolves City and Utd away and then us
Spurs, City, Arsenal Cardiff, Leicester Palace and Wolves at home and Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Cardiff's would be Fulham, Palace, Everton at home and us, Southampton and Brighton away.
Really not much in it. We both have tough fixtures. Could well come down to the game against them (Cardiff), although I reckon Brighton could well get dragged into it, anyhow
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Match day 26
10/02/19
Palace ...............-4......37
Brighton .............-6......37
Burnley
Cardiff...............-3.......35
Newcastle ..........-3.......37 ...(still to play Wolves away)
Southampton .......-6......34
Fulham ..............-6......27
Huddersfield ........-6......21
They are getting there.
UTC
10/02/19
Palace ...............-4......37
Brighton .............-6......37
Burnley
Cardiff...............-3.......35
Newcastle ..........-3.......37 ...(still to play Wolves away)
Southampton .......-6......34
Fulham ..............-6......27
Huddersfield ........-6......21
They are getting there.
UTC
Last edited by Vince Fontaine on Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
It's reasonable to suggest we'll get nothing from Chelsea, Liverpool, City or Arsenal, but the way we're playing we can expect "something" from all the others, including Spurs, IF we keep everyone fit and we keep playing like we have been doing. Big IF!!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
We could have won at Old Trafford so we pick up points anywhere.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
That's absolutely true and tbh, we SHOULD have won at Old Trafford, but when making predictions we have to assume games like those will give us nowt and then consider anything we manage to scrape as a huge bonus.rufus lumley wrote:We could have won at Old Trafford so we pick up points anywhere.
Also, as someone else mentioned on another thread, Southampton's "bounce" seems to be fading fast and they (or Newcastle) look more likely to drop than Cardiff right now, even though I have long believed Cardiff were the chief candidates for that third spot and were merely putting off the inevitable.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
36 points should be enough with the number of clubs still in the mix.
If they aren’t playing the top6 they are playing each other. Loss of confidence, injuries or suspensions could be a major factor.
If they aren’t playing the top6 they are playing each other. Loss of confidence, injuries or suspensions could be a major factor.
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Adding the link from the first page
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Three wins would give us a very good chance, four wins would probably see us definitely stay up (and that's not counting any draws we might pick up).
Palace and Cardiff are the obvious ones and then who knows. Plenty of others are winnable depending which opponent turns up (Leicester, Bournemouth, etc)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Three wins would give us a very good chance, four wins would probably see us definitely stay up (and that's not counting any draws we might pick up).
Palace and Cardiff are the obvious ones and then who knows. Plenty of others are winnable depending which opponent turns up (Leicester, Bournemouth, etc)
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
How can Man city get more points based on the extrapolated points (104) as opposed to the max points available?
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Matchday 26
Newcastle.........-2........35
UTC
Newcastle.........-2........35
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Next four fixtures
Burnley
Tottenham home
Newcastle away
Palace home
Liverpool away
Bournemouth ......43
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Man City home
Huddersfield away
Leicester ...........42
Palace home
Brighton home
Watford away
Fulham home
Palace...............37
Leicester away
Man Utd home
Burnley away
Brighton home
Brighton ............37
Blank week due to caraboa cup final (Chelsea)
Leicester away
Huddersfield home
Palace away
Newcastle ...........35
Huddersfield home
Burnley home
West Ham away
Everton home
Cardiff ...............35
Watford home
Everton home
Wolves away
West Ham home
Southampton .......34
Arsenal away
Fulham home
Man Utd away
Tottenham home
Fulham ..............27
West Ham away
Southampton away
Chelsea home
Leicester away
Huddersfield ........21
Newcastle away
Wolves home
Brighton away
Bournemouth home
Some toughies there
UTC
Burnley
Tottenham home
Newcastle away
Palace home
Liverpool away
Bournemouth ......43
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Man City home
Huddersfield away
Leicester ...........42
Palace home
Brighton home
Watford away
Fulham home
Palace...............37
Leicester away
Man Utd home
Burnley away
Brighton home
Brighton ............37
Blank week due to caraboa cup final (Chelsea)
Leicester away
Huddersfield home
Palace away
Newcastle ...........35
Huddersfield home
Burnley home
West Ham away
Everton home
Cardiff ...............35
Watford home
Everton home
Wolves away
West Ham home
Southampton .......34
Arsenal away
Fulham home
Man Utd away
Tottenham home
Fulham ..............27
West Ham away
Southampton away
Chelsea home
Leicester away
Huddersfield ........21
Newcastle away
Wolves home
Brighton away
Bournemouth home
Some toughies there
UTC
Last edited by Vince Fontaine on Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Just for interest
West Ham .......43
Fulham home
Man City away
Newcastle home
Cardiff away
Here are another team who can reduce teams at the bottom end’s magic numbers and if they don’t then they suffer.
Not all bad
UTC
West Ham .......43
Fulham home
Man City away
Newcastle home
Cardiff away
Here are another team who can reduce teams at the bottom end’s magic numbers and if they don’t then they suffer.
Not all bad
UTC
Last edited by Vince Fontaine on Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I’d hope we can discard Fulham & Terriers. Another 9 pts for us would reduce their magic numbers to 18 & 12. If we don’t get 9 more points we don’t deserve to stay up and if we do I can’t see them not dropping 18 & 12 respectively.
For the rest it’s a dog fight.
For the rest it’s a dog fight.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Taken off the relegation fixtures thread. Thought it might be good to look at with regard to the magic numbers in relation to the way these fixtures pan out as we get towards the end of the season.
23 Feb Newcastle vs Huddersfield
26 Feb Newcastle vs Burnley
27 Feb Southampton vs Fulham
2 March Brighton vs Huddersfield
2 March Burnley vs Crystal Palace
9 March Crystal Palace vs Brighton
16 March Brighton vs Cardiff
30 March Brighton vs Southampton
30 March Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield
6 April Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
13 April Burnley vs Cardiff
20 April Newcastle vs Southampton
27 April Brighton vs Newcastle
27 April Fulham vs Cardiff
4 May Cardiff vs Crystal Palace
12 May Fulham vs Newcastle
12 May Southampton vs Huddersfield
Some positive Huddersfield and Fulham results would be good.
UTC
23 Feb Newcastle vs Huddersfield
26 Feb Newcastle vs Burnley
27 Feb Southampton vs Fulham
2 March Brighton vs Huddersfield
2 March Burnley vs Crystal Palace
9 March Crystal Palace vs Brighton
16 March Brighton vs Cardiff
30 March Brighton vs Southampton
30 March Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield
6 April Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
13 April Burnley vs Cardiff
20 April Newcastle vs Southampton
27 April Brighton vs Newcastle
27 April Fulham vs Cardiff
4 May Cardiff vs Crystal Palace
12 May Fulham vs Newcastle
12 May Southampton vs Huddersfield
Some positive Huddersfield and Fulham results would be good.
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Given tonight's results, a surprise win at home to Spurs tomorrow would be a great boost !!
UTC !!
UTC !!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
3 clubs under 30 now.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier ... bewerb/GB1
Another cool little link - shows how high/low every team can finish.
Another cool little link - shows how high/low every team can finish.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Just had a look at Saints remaining fixtures and they could struggle to get to 36pts.
As will Fulham and Terriers.
6points should see us safe.
As will Fulham and Terriers.
6points should see us safe.
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I like that idea. I've stolen it and added it to the spreadsheet.bfccrazy wrote:https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier ... bewerb/GB1
Another cool little link - shows how high/low every team can finish.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I love it - all my mates always think i’m mad for banging on about Magic Numbers all seasonaggi wrote:I like that idea. I've stolen it and added it to the spreadsheet.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I love it too. Could you slide it along to columns J&K as I’m just confused by extrapolated figures.bfccrazy wrote:I love it - all my mates always think i’m mad for banging on about Magic Numbers all season
Apologies bfccrazy, that was for aggi.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Match day 27
W/E 23/24-02-19
Everton...........-3......37
Leicester..........-6......36
Palace.............-3......34
Burnley
Newcastle.........-3.....32
Brighton...........-3.....34
Cardiff.............-6.....29
Southampton.....-6.....28
Fulham.............-6....21
Huddersfield......-6....15
UTC
W/E 23/24-02-19
Everton...........-3......37
Leicester..........-6......36
Palace.............-3......34
Burnley
Newcastle.........-3.....32
Brighton...........-3.....34
Cardiff.............-6.....29
Southampton.....-6.....28
Fulham.............-6....21
Huddersfield......-6....15
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I like that BHA are predicted to be 18th on latest form
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Since they beat Palace on match day 15, the day we lost at home to Liverpool (almost half the season ago), Brighton haven't been out of the bottom three on form and have only won once, beating Everton three days after Everton hammered us.Rick_Muller wrote:I like that BHA are predicted to be 18th on latest form
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
It's slipped under the radar a bit but they're on a terrible run. They've taken 6 points from their last ten games. Only Huddersfield are worse and, Fulham and Huddersfield excluded, most teams in the relegation area have taken far more points than that.Rick_Muller wrote:I like that BHA are predicted to be 18th on latest form
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Think both Brighton and Saints have Huddersfield to play at home.
The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.
Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.
The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.
Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Saints second worst home form in the league. Hudds have earned more points away from home.Lancasterclaret wrote:Think both Brighton and Saints have Huddersfield to play at home.
The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.
Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.
I think 36 points will be enough...esp if we beat Cardiff
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Lancaster, I simply don't understand why anyone thinks a club would ever require 40 points to stop up when it's happened only once in a 38 game season.Lancasterclaret wrote:Think both Brighton and Saints have Huddersfield to play at home.
The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.
Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.
As for this season, it would require a major collapse by the top sides for ALL the bottom clubs, apart from Fulham & Huddersfield to get to 40 points.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Safe by Saturday night thenGoddy wrote:I think 36 points will be enough...esp if we beat Cardiff
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I'm very panicky till we get to 40 points, or mathematically safe every season!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I'm very panicky until we are mathematically safe - even if we get to 40.Lancasterclaret wrote:I'm very panicky till we get to 40 points, or mathematically safe every season!
Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Vince........you nicked my idea of Magic Numbers a couple of seasons ago. But as I nicked the idea from over here (USA) and as you are doing a great job with it............then thanks and keep it going. BUT I will get p***ed with you if you get us relegated You have been warnedVince Fontaine wrote:Match day 27
W/E 23/24-02-19
Everton...........-3......37
Leicester..........-6......36
Palace.............-3......34
Burnley
Newcastle.........-3.....32
Brighton...........-3.....34
Cardiff.............-6.....29
Southampton.....-6.....28
Fulham.............-6....21
Huddersfield......-6....15
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Apologies to whoever posted this first but I think this is a good home for it.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Tricky Trevor wrote:Apologies to whoever posted this first but I think this is a good home for it.
I can't really make it out, but it's at least two games out of date.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Double click and it should open out. Alternately right click on it and open image.duncandisorderly wrote:I can't really make it out, but it's at least two games out of date.
Sorry about the dates but it was posted previously and I don't control the spreadsheet.
i thought it was worth having it on here for upcoming fixtures.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Apart from the outstanding game between Chelsea & Brighton, week 28 all complete .....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
Fulham and Huddersfield both under 20 now, with 10 games to go ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
Fulham and Huddersfield both under 20 now, with 10 games to go ...
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Match day 28
26/27-02-19
Leicester ..........0.......36
Bournemouth .....-3......35
Newcastle .........0.......32
Palace ..............-3......31
Burnley
Brighton ...........-3.......31...played 27 still to play Chelsea away
Southampton ......0.......28
Cardiff .............-3.......26
Fulham .............-3......18
Huddersfield .......0.......15
UTC
26/27-02-19
Leicester ..........0.......36
Bournemouth .....-3......35
Newcastle .........0.......32
Palace ..............-3......31
Burnley
Brighton ...........-3.......31...played 27 still to play Chelsea away
Southampton ......0.......28
Cardiff .............-3.......26
Fulham .............-3......18
Huddersfield .......0.......15
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
It's not Fulham or Huddersfield who worry me!!Clarets4me wrote:Apart from the outstanding game between Chelsea & Brighton, week 28 all complete .....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
Fulham and Huddersfield both under 20 now, with 10 games to go ...
This user liked this post: Clarets4me
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
To put Brighton's recent run into context we got 8 points from our opening 10 matches,and most people felt quite rightly we had a terrible start to the season,ignoring the bottom 2 who are well adrift,every other team looks capable of stringing one or two results together Brighton don't.aggi wrote:It's slipped under the radar a bit but they're on a terrible run. They've taken 6 points from their last ten games. Only Huddersfield are worse and, Fulham and Huddersfield excluded, most teams in the relegation area have taken far more points than that.
Their next three league fixtures are as follows Huddersfield(H),Palace(a)Southampton(H),in April they have Bournemouth and Newcastle at home,winnable games on paper but under pressure who knows,their last 2 games are at the Emirates and City at home,there is a fair chance that the City game will be a title decider,if i was a Seagulls fan i'd want as many points as possible before those last 2 games.
Winning is a habit but so is losing and Hughton must be concerned,amongst this run of league fixtures there is also a probable FA Cup semi-final to factor into the equation.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Last time Brighton got to the Cup Final they got relegated !tiger76 wrote:To put Brighton's recent run into context we got 8 points from our opening 10 matches,and most people felt quite rightly we had a terrible start to the season,ignoring the bottom 2 who are well adrift,every other team looks capable of stringing one or two results together Brighton don't.
Their next three league fixtures are as follows Huddersfield(H),Palace(a)Southampton(H),in April they have Bournemouth and Newcastle at home,winnable games on paper but under pressure who knows,their last 2 games are at the Emirates and City at home,there is a fair chance that the City game will be a title decider,if i was a Seagulls fan i'd want as many points as possible before those last 2 games.
Winning is a habit but so is losing and Hughton must be concerned,amongst this run of league fixtures there is also a probable FA Cup semi-final to factor into the equation.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Yep VC i think that fact has been mentioned on this forum,fair odds they could face Man Utd in the final again also.Vegas Claret wrote:Last time Brighton got to the Cup Final they got relegated !
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
All teams now played 29 games, with the exception of the outstanding Chelsea v Brighton game .....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
The more I look at this, beat Cardiff, get a win and a draw elsewhere, that should see us safe ... fingers crossed ! With the goal difference, Cardiff would need to get to 38 points. If you exclude the game against us, that's 13 points from their other 8 games ...
If I appear relaxed about the goal difference, their remaining games include Chelsea, Liverpool and Palace at home, and both Manchester Clubs away ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
The more I look at this, beat Cardiff, get a win and a draw elsewhere, that should see us safe ... fingers crossed ! With the goal difference, Cardiff would need to get to 38 points. If you exclude the game against us, that's 13 points from their other 8 games ...
If I appear relaxed about the goal difference, their remaining games include Chelsea, Liverpool and Palace at home, and both Manchester Clubs away ...
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
Match week 30 now gone, all have played 30 games, with the exception of the Chelsea v Brighton game .....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
Fulham and Huddersfield now virtually gone, beat Cardiff at home and then 5 points from Leicester and Wolves at home and Bournemouth away .... and we should be safe, anything else is a bonus ... ( Man City & Arsenal at home and Chelsea away ) ..
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
Fulham and Huddersfield now virtually gone, beat Cardiff at home and then 5 points from Leicester and Wolves at home and Bournemouth away .... and we should be safe, anything else is a bonus ... ( Man City & Arsenal at home and Chelsea away ) ..
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
I've said before Cardiff have a decent record ont’Turf.
We couldn’t beat Huddersfield, Saints, Newcastle or CP at home.
This is a put your balls on the table and count them game. Go in hard we win, any fannying about we lose with all that entails.
We couldn’t beat Huddersfield, Saints, Newcastle or CP at home.
This is a put your balls on the table and count them game. Go in hard we win, any fannying about we lose with all that entails.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019
exactlyTricky Trevor wrote:I've said before Cardiff have a decent record ont’Turf.
We couldn’t beat Huddersfield, Saints, Newcastle or CP at home.
This is a put your balls on the table and count them game. Go in hard we win, any fannying about we lose with all that entails.