Magic Numbers 2018/2019

fidelcastro · Post by **fidelcastro** » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:20 am

Following Cardiff's win, I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:18 am

fidelcastro wrote:Following Cardiff's win, I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.

We haven't got up to a point per game all season, i would suggest 38 would be enough.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:11 am

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

With most of week 25 completed, all sides from Brighton down have played ......

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:41 am

fidelcastro wrote:Following Cardiff's win, I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.

Taken from the thread about how many points required.

At this stage - 25 matches gone in the last five seasons and the total after 38 matches:

18/19 - 22 pts. 18th finished on ???
17/18 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 33 pts
16/17 - 20 pts. 18th finished on 34 pts
15/16 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 37 pts
14/15 - 22 pts. 18th finished on 35 pts

Think the record number is 42.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:49 am

We also have the toughest games ahead IMO.
Cardiff have Watford, Everton WHU Liverpool Fulham, Palace and Chelsea at home with us Southampton Brighton Wolves City and Utd away and then us
Spurs, City, Arsenal Cardiff, Leicester Palace and Wolves at home and Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:26 pm

mdd2 wrote:We also have the toughest games ahead IMO.
Cardiff have Watford, Everton WHU Liverpool Fulham, Palace and Chelsea at home with us Southampton Brighton Wolves City and Utd away and then us
Spurs, City, Arsenal Cardiff, Leicester Palace and Wolves at home and Brighton, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool.

Not sure I agree, mdd2. Our 3 easiest home and away games (on paper) i e where we're most likely to pick up points, would be Cardiff, Palace and Leicester then Brighton, Newcastle and perhaps, Everton.

Cardiff's would be Fulham, Palace, Everton at home and us, Southampton and Brighton away.

Really not much in it. We both have tough fixtures. Could well come down to the game against them (Cardiff), although I reckon Brighton could well get dragged into it, anyhow

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:22 pm

Match day 26
10/02/19

Palace ...............-4......37
Brighton .............-6......37
Burnley
Cardiff...............-3.......35
Newcastle ..........-3.......37 ...(still to play Wolves away)
Southampton .......-6......34
Fulham ..............-6......27
Huddersfield ........-6......21

They are getting there.
UTC

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:05 pm

It's reasonable to suggest we'll get nothing from Chelsea, Liverpool, City or Arsenal, but the way we're playing we can expect "something" from all the others, including Spurs, IF we keep everyone fit and we keep playing like we have been doing. Big IF!!

rufus lumley · Post by **rufus lumley** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:25 pm

We could have won at Old Trafford so we pick up points anywhere.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:32 pm

rufus lumley wrote:We could have won at Old Trafford so we pick up points anywhere.

That's absolutely true and tbh, we SHOULD have won at Old Trafford, but when making predictions we have to assume games like those will give us nowt and then consider anything we manage to scrape as a huge bonus.
Also, as someone else mentioned on another thread, Southampton's "bounce" seems to be fading fast and they (or Newcastle) look more likely to drop than Cardiff right now, even though I have long believed Cardiff were the chief candidates for that third spot and were merely putting off the inevitable.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:00 pm

36 points should be enough with the number of clubs still in the mix.
If they aren’t playing the top6 they are playing each other. Loss of confidence, injuries or suspensions could be a major factor.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:15 am

Adding the link from the first page
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Three wins would give us a very good chance, four wins would probably see us definitely stay up (and that's not counting any draws we might pick up).

Palace and Cardiff are the obvious ones and then who knows. Plenty of others are winnable depending which opponent turns up (Leicester, Bournemouth, etc)

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:06 am

Week 26 all done .....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:22 am

How can Man city get more points based on the extrapolated points (104) as opposed to the max points available?

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:31 pm

Matchday 26

Newcastle.........-2........35

UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:55 pm

Next four fixtures

Burnley
Tottenham home
Newcastle away
Palace home
Liverpool away

Bournemouth ......43
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Man City home
Huddersfield away

Leicester ...........42
Palace home
Brighton home
Watford away
Fulham home

Palace...............37
Leicester away
Man Utd home
Burnley away
Brighton home

Brighton ............37
Blank week due to caraboa cup final (Chelsea)
Leicester away
Huddersfield home
Palace away

Newcastle ...........35
Huddersfield home
Burnley home
West Ham away
Everton home

Cardiff ...............35
Watford home
Everton home
Wolves away
West Ham home

Southampton .......34
Arsenal away
Fulham home
Man Utd away
Tottenham home

Fulham ..............27
West Ham away
Southampton away
Chelsea home
Leicester away

Huddersfield ........21
Newcastle away
Wolves home
Brighton away
Bournemouth home

Some toughies there
UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:06 pm

Just for interest

West Ham .......43
Fulham home
Man City away
Newcastle home
Cardiff away

Here are another team who can reduce teams at the bottom end’s magic numbers and if they don’t then they suffer.
Not all bad

UTC

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:26 pm

I’d hope we can discard Fulham & Terriers. Another 9 pts for us would reduce their magic numbers to 18 & 12. If we don’t get 9 more points we don’t deserve to stay up and if we do I can’t see them not dropping 18 & 12 respectively.
For the rest it’s a dog fight.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:26 pm

Taken off the relegation fixtures thread. Thought it might be good to look at with regard to the magic numbers in relation to the way these fixtures pan out as we get towards the end of the season.

23 Feb Newcastle vs Huddersfield

26 Feb Newcastle vs Burnley

27 Feb Southampton vs Fulham

2 March Brighton vs Huddersfield

2 March Burnley vs Crystal Palace

9 March Crystal Palace vs Brighton

16 March Brighton vs Cardiff

30 March Brighton vs Southampton

30 March Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield

6 April Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

13 April Burnley vs Cardiff

20 April Newcastle vs Southampton

27 April Brighton vs Newcastle

27 April Fulham vs Cardiff

4 May Cardiff vs Crystal Palace

12 May Fulham vs Newcastle

12 May Southampton vs Huddersfield

Some positive Huddersfield and Fulham results would be good.
UTC

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:15 pm

Given tonight's results, a surprise win at home to Spurs tomorrow would be a great boost !!

UTC !!

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:11 pm

3 clubs under 30 now.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:54 pm

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier ... bewerb/GB1

Another cool little link - shows how high/low every team can finish.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:22 pm

Just had a look at Saints remaining fixtures and they could struggle to get to 36pts.
As will Fulham and Terriers.
6points should see us safe.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:00 pm

bfccrazy wrote:https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier ... bewerb/GB1

Another cool little link - shows how high/low every team can finish.

I like that idea. I've stolen it and added it to the spreadsheet.

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:09 pm

aggi wrote:I like that idea. I've stolen it and added it to the spreadsheet.

I love it - all my mates always think i’m mad for banging on about Magic Numbers all season

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:15 pm

bfccrazy wrote:I love it - all my mates always think i’m mad for banging on about Magic Numbers all season

I love it too. Could you slide it along to columns J&K as I’m just confused by extrapolated figures.
Apologies bfccrazy, that was for aggi.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:08 pm

Match day 27
W/E 23/24-02-19

Everton...........-3......37
Leicester..........-6......36
Palace.............-3......34
Burnley
Newcastle.........-3.....32
Brighton...........-3.....34
Cardiff.............-6.....29
Southampton.....-6.....28
Fulham.............-6....21
Huddersfield......-6....15

UTC

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:37 pm

I like that BHA are predicted to be 18th on latest form

duncandisorderly · Post by **duncandisorderly** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:47 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:I like that BHA are predicted to be 18th on latest form

Since they beat Palace on match day 15, the day we lost at home to Liverpool (almost half the season ago), Brighton haven't been out of the bottom three on form and have only won once, beating Everton three days after Everton hammered us.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:52 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:I like that BHA are predicted to be 18th on latest form

It's slipped under the radar a bit but they're on a terrible run. They've taken 6 points from their last ten games. Only Huddersfield are worse and, Fulham and Huddersfield excluded, most teams in the relegation area have taken far more points than that.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:56 pm

Think both Brighton and Saints have Huddersfield to play at home.

The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.

Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:32 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Think both Brighton and Saints have Huddersfield to play at home.

The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.

Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.

Saints second worst home form in the league. Hudds have earned more points away from home.

I think 36 points will be enough...esp if we beat Cardiff

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:34 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Think both Brighton and Saints have Huddersfield to play at home.

The way they are going, that is a guaranteed three points sadly.

Be a lot more comfortable if we can get to 40 asap to be perfectly honest.

Lancaster, I simply don't understand why anyone thinks a club would ever require 40 points to stop up when it's happened only once in a 38 game season.

As for this season, it would require a major collapse by the top sides for ALL the bottom clubs, apart from Fulham & Huddersfield to get to 40 points.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:34 pm

Goddy wrote:I think 36 points will be enough...esp if we beat Cardiff

Safe by Saturday night then

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:41 pm

I'm very panicky till we get to 40 points, or mathematically safe every season!

edison · Post by **edison** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:45 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I'm very panicky till we get to 40 points, or mathematically safe every season!

I'm very panicky until we are mathematically safe - even if we get to 40.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:53 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote:Match day 27
W/E 23/24-02-19

Everton...........-3......37
Leicester..........-6......36
Palace.............-3......34
Burnley
Newcastle.........-3.....32
Brighton...........-3.....34
Cardiff.............-6.....29
Southampton.....-6.....28
Fulham.............-6....21
Huddersfield......-6....15

UTC

Vince........you nicked my idea of Magic Numbers a couple of seasons ago. But as I nicked the idea from over here (USA) and as you are doing a great job with it............then thanks and keep it going. BUT I will get p***ed with you if you get us relegated

You have been warned

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:38 pm

Apologies to whoever posted this first but I think this is a good home for it.

: CA8AF337-B5BC-48E7-8751-C609110051E5.jpeg (736.1 KiB) Viewed 2218 times

duncandisorderly · Post by **duncandisorderly** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:37 pm

Tricky Trevor wrote:Apologies to whoever posted this first but I think this is a good home for it.

CA8AF337-B5BC-48E7-8751-C609110051E5.jpeg

I can't really make it out, but it's at least two games out of date.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:53 pm

duncandisorderly wrote:I can't really make it out, but it's at least two games out of date.

Double click and it should open out. Alternately right click on it and open image.
Sorry about the dates but it was posted previously and I don't control the spreadsheet.
i thought it was worth having it on here for upcoming fixtures.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:41 pm

Apart from the outstanding game between Chelsea & Brighton, week 28 all complete .....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Fulham and Huddersfield both under 20 now, with 10 games to go ...

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:01 pm

Match day 28
26/27-02-19

Leicester ..........0.......36
Bournemouth .....-3......35
Newcastle .........0.......32
Palace ..............-3......31
Burnley
Brighton ...........-3.......31...played 27 still to play Chelsea away
Southampton ......0.......28
Cardiff .............-3.......26
Fulham .............-3......18
Huddersfield .......0.......15

UTC

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:31 pm

Clarets4me wrote:Apart from the outstanding game between Chelsea & Brighton, week 28 all complete .....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Fulham and Huddersfield both under 20 now, with 10 games to go ...

It's not Fulham or Huddersfield who worry me!!

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:42 pm

aggi wrote:It's slipped under the radar a bit but they're on a terrible run. They've taken 6 points from their last ten games. Only Huddersfield are worse and, Fulham and Huddersfield excluded, most teams in the relegation area have taken far more points than that.

To put Brighton's recent run into context we got 8 points from our opening 10 matches,and most people felt quite rightly we had a terrible start to the season,ignoring the bottom 2 who are well adrift,every other team looks capable of stringing one or two results together Brighton don't.

Their next three league fixtures are as follows Huddersfield(H),Palace(a)Southampton(H),in April they have Bournemouth and Newcastle at home,winnable games on paper but under pressure who knows,their last 2 games are at the Emirates and City at home,there is a fair chance that the City game will be a title decider,if i was a Seagulls fan i'd want as many points as possible before those last 2 games.

Winning is a habit but so is losing and Hughton must be concerned,amongst this run of league fixtures there is also a probable FA Cup semi-final to factor into the equation.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:14 am

tiger76 wrote:To put Brighton's recent run into context we got 8 points from our opening 10 matches,and most people felt quite rightly we had a terrible start to the season,ignoring the bottom 2 who are well adrift,every other team looks capable of stringing one or two results together Brighton don't.

Their next three league fixtures are as follows Huddersfield(H),Palace(a)Southampton(H),in April they have Bournemouth and Newcastle at home,winnable games on paper but under pressure who knows,their last 2 games are at the Emirates and City at home,there is a fair chance that the City game will be a title decider,if i was a Seagulls fan i'd want as many points as possible before those last 2 games.

Winning is a habit but so is losing and Hughton must be concerned,amongst this run of league fixtures there is also a probable FA Cup semi-final to factor into the equation.

Last time Brighton got to the Cup Final they got relegated !

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:48 am

Vegas Claret wrote:Last time Brighton got to the Cup Final they got relegated !

Yep VC i think that fact has been mentioned on this forum,fair odds they could face Man Utd in the final again also.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:19 pm

All teams now played 29 games, with the exception of the outstanding Chelsea v Brighton game .....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

The more I look at this, beat Cardiff, get a win and a draw elsewhere, that should see us safe ... fingers crossed ! With the goal difference, Cardiff would need to get to 38 points. If you exclude the game against us, that's 13 points from their other 8 games ...

If I appear relaxed about the goal difference, their remaining games include Chelsea, Liverpool and Palace at home, and both Manchester Clubs away ...

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:05 am

Match week 30 now gone, all have played 30 games, with the exception of the Chelsea v Brighton game .....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Fulham and Huddersfield now virtually gone, beat Cardiff at home and then 5 points from Leicester and Wolves at home and Bournemouth away .... and we should be safe, anything else is a bonus ... ( Man City & Arsenal at home and Chelsea away ) ..

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:30 am

I've said before Cardiff have a decent record ont’Turf.
We couldn’t beat Huddersfield, Saints, Newcastle or CP at home.
This is a put your balls on the table and count them game. Go in hard we win, any fannying about we lose with all that entails.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:55 am

Tricky Trevor wrote:I've said before Cardiff have a decent record ont’Turf.
We couldn’t beat Huddersfield, Saints, Newcastle or CP at home.
This is a put your balls on the table and count them game. Go in hard we win, any fannying about we lose with all that entails.

exactly