2.7 Million Brexiteers Have Changed to Remain

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:02 pm

I didn't start the thread.

Still, whatever floats your boat.

And didn't you start a thread on the Notting Hill Carnival?

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:02 pm

Fantastic news coming from Robert Peston. He thinks David Davis has won.

I didn’t know this when I posted about a Canada Plus FTA earlier. It’ll be fine, and exciting.

https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163730 ... 597433907/

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:03 pm

Its better than no deal.

Thats about it though

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:08 pm

Fantastic news, we're finishing 19th instead of 20th. Take that doom-and-gloomers!

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:09 pm

fake OP news, nothing here move on, just more remoaning for the sake of it

Chip Harrison · Post by **Chip Harrison** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:23 pm

KateR wrote:fake OP news, nothing here move on, just more remoaning for the sake of it

Quoted today by the Independent. Benjamin Kentish, Political Correspondent.

Chip Harrison · Post by **Chip Harrison** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:25 pm

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Also the GMB are calling for a new referendum.

Wile E Coyote · Post by **Wile E Coyote** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:39 pm

millions change their minds for general elections too, that's called democracy. Just because the gullible think they voted wrong in a referendum is irrelevant. The result stands.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:46 pm

The GMB are calling for a vote on the deal and leaving the option of whether to include Remain on the ballot to MPs.

It’s a bit like showing the turkey the oven and handing them the option of whether to leap into it. If they did, the Tories, Labour and Lib Dem’s are toast. A new party (not UKIP who are tainted) would take votes from all of them and 5-10 years later we would leave anyway with the UK being a permenant hung parliament instead of a 2 party system.

Obviously my premise is that yes, fear and pessimism could sway enough to make us vote Remain but in due course polls would swing back the other way, and Here We Go Round The Milberry Bush again (although maybe the nursery rhyme’s other title involving the words Nuts and May is more apt).

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:51 pm

it's never going to happen or it has as much chance as Burnley winning PL this year and European Cup season after

someone says the same every week for over a year in that we will have another vote, people need to get over they did not get there own way, such babies

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:00 pm

You'd have to be completely switched off from reality to believe that KateR.

The only plan won't work, and the people who want Brexit but don't want that plan to work don't have a plan.

Add the massive amounts of information that wasn't available before the referendum, the actual reality of what this means sinking in, Its not a complete shock that a lot of people are changing their minds.

ClaretAndJew · Post by **ClaretAndJew** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:00 pm

KateR wrote:it's never going to happen or it has as much chance as Burnley winning PL this year and European Cup season after

someone says the same every week for over a year in that we will have another vote, people need to get over they did not get there own way, such babies

Most people have accepted the referendum it's the way it's being done that people have issues with. It's really not that hard to understand, it's not as simple as people not getting their own way.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:07 pm

That doesn't mean we should have a 2nd ref btw, but it does mean that people need to vote for what they want.

If they want Canada plus, fine

if they want complete Brexit, fine

If they want to sack it all off, fine

Or alternatively we could understand that everyone won't be happy about this whatever we do and try to find a compromise that just annoys those who are completely entrenched leave or remain.

ClaretLoup · Post by **ClaretLoup** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:08 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
As for farming, I suspect I know a lot more about this than you do. My wife's business is in farming and her whole family has been involved in it, one or two own huge farms.

Over decades we have had environment damage due to the Common Agricultural Policy. Young farmers are prevented from entering the market. Land capitalisation is rife. Farmers often only get a marginal income unrelated to the public benefits they deliver. Migrant labour can still happen, but in a managed way. Like all industries, the farming union NFU is full of vested interests, so it is hard to get at the truth, but trust me, there is a majority vote in farming for Brexit, and for very good reason.

Thanks for answering Crosspool, however you have not answered my question, what will the Agricultural Sector gain from Brexit?

You are right re the majority of farmers favouring Brexit, 53% voted for it, however 45% voted to remain, so plainly quite a sizeable minority cannot see any gains, however with your advanced knowledge of the farming industry I looked forward to your explanation of the future benefits of Brexit having had your critique of the CAP.

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:17 pm

Britain is going to hell.
Brexit was started by independently wealthy men who have worked out how THEY can get wealthier. Led by a gobshite whose sole ambition is to be PM. This will divide the tories but won’t cost them the election because the opposition are on a suicide mission over anti-semitism and reds under the beds.
As a democrat I’m quite happy to accept the result but if ever a second vote was needed after the electorate have been more informed this is it.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:18 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:The Tax Haven Counter Measure Law? That wouldn’t affect companies in the U.K. as they have the “Economic Logic “ exemption and evidence that the management, control and governance is in the U.K. and that transactions with related parties are less than 50% of all transactions

Well it could potentially impact on some of them, hence Panasonic moving to Amsterdam https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... -out-of-UK" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and a number of banks planning to move.

Like everything with Brexit, companies don't like the uncertainty and the longer it goes on (partly with the continued talk of no deal) the more companies are deciding they're better off out of it.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:21 pm

Back to the important stuff in this thread...

I’m currently watching Jaws again, it’s on Netflix

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:23 pm

KateR wrote:it's never going to happen or it has as much chance as Burnley winning PL this year and European Cup season after

You might be correct, and yet within the month it could be official Labour policy. If that became reality then the arithmetic in Parliament suggests that it would be a distinct possibility. There are definitely a number of Tories who would vote with the other parties.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:31 pm

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:34 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:Thanks for answering Crosspool, however you have not answered my question, what will the Agricultural Sector gain from Brexit?

You are right re the majority of farmers favouring Brexit, 53% voted for it, however 45% voted to remain, so plainly quite a sizeable minority cannot see any gains, however with your advanced knowledge of the farming industry I looked forward to your explanation of the future benefits of Brexit having had your critique of the CAP.

Farming advantages of Brexit:

1. CAP was tailored to European farmers, our system of grants could be tailored to British farmers.
2. Relaxation of restrictive rules
3. Strenghtening of UK rules eg. animal welfare - imports from EU countries who don't meet UK standards could be barred.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:36 pm

But chequers was a compromise to try to heal the division in the Conservative Party. Nothing at all to do with what the country wanted, and an attempt to give the undeliverable Brexit that was promised.

Until the people who want an undeliverable Brexit are happy, then this government can't deliver one. Which means we either get "No deal" or "No Brexit".

The Brexiteers are gambling that people won't understand how bad a "No deal" will be, and that they would have enough support to make sure nothing else passes through so they get their "No deal".

Nothing else matters to them. They can do what the hell they want in the event of the "No deal".

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:42 pm

Bacchus wrote:I may well be wrong on this (I'm sure someone will be able to point to a reliable source either way) but I'm pretty sure the concensus is that we could withdraw A50 without requiring any agreement from the EU27. Legally we could stay as we are. I accept that politically it might more difficult.

What would require agreement from the EU27 is an extension of the A50 interim period (which would surely be the only other remotely viable option at this stage.)

This is paragraphs 2 and 3 of Article 50.

"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

That looks pretty explicit that a country that withdraws, will leave on (i) on the date and the terms mutually, if within 2 years of Article 50 being invoked, or (ii) in the absence of any such agreement, on the second anniversary after Article 50 was invoked - unless the European Council (ie, the other 27) unanimously agrees to extend it.

But the word is "shall". It's definite. There may well be legal opinion that a country can withdraw Article 50, but there's surely grounds in the above that says it can't withdraw Article 50 as well; hence, legal arguments and court cases; the European Court of Justice would have to decide.

BennyD · Post by **BennyD** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:44 pm

If we voted remain in a second referendum (which, of course, won’t happen) we would get right royally screwed by the EU. Why? Because we have shown that large parts of the country wanted out but we have voted to come crawling back, which will indicate to the Euro elite that we need them more than they want us. We wouldn’t get a meaningful seat at the top table and we would have to pay more to support the unfettered largesse of that corrupt bunch of trough feeders. Getting out is the ONLY way forward be it with or without an agreement. I’m now standing by for the abuse from the remainers, which will be ignored.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:45 pm

Not going to abuse you, you are perfectly entitled to your opinion.

Now, do you like Jaws?

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:58 pm

BennyD wrote:If we voted remain in a second referendum (which, of course, won’t happen) we would get right royally screwed by the EU. Why? Because we have shown that large parts of the country wanted out but we have voted to come crawling back, which will indicate to the Euro elite that we need them more than they want us. We wouldn’t get a meaningful seat at the top table and we would have to pay more to support the unfettered largesse of that corrupt bunch of trough feeders. Getting out is the ONLY way forward be it with or without an agreement. I’m now standing by for the abuse from the remainers, which will be ignored.

They already know that we need the EU. Most sensible people know that.
They also want us to stay. The EU doesn't want us to leave. Most sensible people know that as well. It's just that they're not prepared to dismantle everything to accommodate one member state, be it us or any other nation.

If we were to remain as an EU member state, we would still have a seat on the council, like every other member state. How would that
be any less meaningful? We would still have MEPs in the EU Parliament, like every other member state. Are they less meaningful as well?

You're basically so tied up in your own web of fallacies that you're not making much sense at this stage.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:02 pm

Course, if it was IIBYW, we'd ask him if he liked Jaws, but with the "a" replaced by an "e"

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:But chequers was a compromise to try to heal the division in the Conservative Party. Nothing at all to do with what the country wanted, and an attempt to give the undeliverable Brexit that was promised.

Until the people who want an undeliverable Brexit are happy, then this government can't deliver one. Which means we either get "No deal" or "No Brexit".

The Brexiteers are gambling that people won't understand how bad a "No deal" will be, and that they would have enough support to make sure nothing else passes through so they get their "No deal".

Nothing else matters to them. They can do what the hell they want in the event of the "No deal".

The deal being suggested at the moment is that Britain should offer the EU tariff-free access to a market worth £260bn, plus £40bn lump sum, plus £8-£13bn per year, plus control over Britain's laws re. manufacturing and farming, plus control over Britain's trade deals outside the EU. What does Britain get in exchange? Tariff-free access to a market worth £160bn. Services, where we run a trade surplus, will be excluded from the deal.

How bad would "no deal" have to be to be worse than this?

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:04 pm

Jaws really is a fine film. Surely even the Brexiteers can appreciate that?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:05 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:They already know that we need the EU. Most sensible people know that.
They also want us to stay. The EU doesn't want us to leave. Most sensible people know that as well. It's just that they're not prepared to dismantle everything to accommodate one member state, be it us or any other nation.

If we were to remain as an EU member state, we would still have a seat on the council, like every other member state. How would that
be any less meaningful? We would still have MEPs in the EU Parliament, like every other member state. Are they less meaningful as well?

You're basically so tied up in your own web of fallacies that you're not making much sense at this stage.

What would be the EU position on the Euro opt-out, the Schengen opt-out, and the budget rebate?

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:10 pm

dsr wrote:What would be the EU position on the Euro opt-out, the Schengen opt-out, and the budget rebate?

You mean all the things that made our EU membership the best deal we'd ever get, anywhere? I'd hope that they'd be prepared to let us continue with our existing arrangement, but I imagine our politicians and civil servants would have to do quite a bit of 'sounding out' before officially withdrawing Article 50.

Personally, I think they'd be happy for us to carry on as before and consign this entire fiasco to the dustbin of history, where it belongs.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:You mean all the things that made our EU membership the best deal we'd ever get, anywhere? I'd hope that they'd be prepared to let us continue with our existing arrangement, but I imagine our politicians and civil servants would have to do quite a bit of 'sounding out' before officially withdrawing Article 50.

Personally, I think they'd be happy for us to carry on as before and consign this entire fiasco to the dustbin of history, where it belongs.

I think this belongs on the "ridiculous blind optimism" thread. I don't see any evidence from the other 27 that they are all well-disposed to the UK, to the extent that they will be happy to let is back in with no concessions at all.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:48 pm

dsr wrote:I think this belongs on the "ridiculous blind optimism" thread. I don't see any evidence from the other 27 that they are all well-disposed to the UK, to the extent that they will be happy to let is back in with no concessions at all.

But they wouldn't be letting us back in. We haven't left.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:52 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The shark in Jaws is actually more realistic than Crosspools Brexit vision.

What we need is some Bat Brexit Repellant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_B_n-Rbros" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:05 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:You might be correct, and yet within the month it could be official Labour policy. If that became reality then the arithmetic in Parliament suggests that it would be a distinct possibility. There are definitely a number of Tories who would vote with the other parties.

the last thing Labour want is to be in charge now, they know whatever the outcome it's a poison chalice, far better to sit back wait, hope to get in next year after done deal then start slagging Tories of and how bad it is and any failures will be blamed on a poor exit position.

Boris is also in same position and a few others, they do not want to be the leader now, but after the dust settles there will be a scramble I thinks so they can say exactly what JC and the trot's party would say. TM is either totally stupid or brave, not sure which yet, however this two years/Brexit and her leadership will be famous or infamous for a long time to come, a real example that will be taught in many schools colleges universities and large business organizations for decades her name will be forever associated with it.

Pigs might fly but I believe I have as much chance of seeing that as I have of a second vote, of course all just my opinion and I have been wrong before.

I was only reading this morning about Britain entering a 4th industrial revolution through Brexit, I didn't know we had a second or third though, so shows how much I know

burnleymik · Post by **burnleymik** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:19 pm

Best For Britain (Soros's propaganda machine) commissioning a report to try and use the YouGov polling data to fit their narrative... Very trustworthy..

The beauty of statistics, is that you can manipulate them to suit whatever agenda you are trying to push.

Not worth the paper it is written on.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:29 pm

Rileybobs wrote:Jaws really is a fine film. Surely even the Brexiteers can appreciate that?

there are fine films on both sides.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:35 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:But they wouldn't be letting us back in. We haven't left.

OK, then I don't see any evidence from the other 27 that they are all well-disposed to the UK, to the extent that they will be happy to let us remain with no concessions at all.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:53 pm

dsr wrote:OK, then I don't see any evidence from the other 27 that they are all well-disposed to the UK, to the extent that they will be happy to let us remain with no concessions at all.

I think they'd probably be aware that the only chance of having Britain stay in the EU at the moment would be to continue to allow us all the special exemptions we currently have. If they went Schengen, Euro, etc then there's no chance that would go through (at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the end result of Brexit would be sucking all that stuff up in fifteen years time).

The question is obviously whether the EU27 would allow us to maintain our current standing. I suspect it comes down to whether or not they'd be happy to point at the UK as a salutary lesson in that "they tried to leave and didn't get over the first hurdle" or have us leave with the chance it may inspire others to do the same.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:00 pm

dsr wrote:OK, then I don't see any evidence from the other 27 that they are all well-disposed to the UK, to the extent that they will be happy to let us remain with no concessions at all.

The EU don't want a "no deal" brexit since it would damage them significantly, though not so much as us because they are 27 and we are 1, but on the other hand they can't offer us a better deal than we currently have otherwise, as Remainers have known all along, (and as Barnier said this weekend), it threatens the entire EU project, so if they get the opportunity to dodge both bullets they will grasp it with both hands.
My feeling is that they would welcome us back on the same terms but with an additional concession that they would (at some point in the future) consider some of the reforms that we have been looking for. This wouldn't bind them to anything since all 27 would have to agree to reforms, but it would be a token goodwill gesture.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:31 pm

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:34 pm

Course, that is exactly what I meant. I should really learn to put a smiley on these things.

Being serious for a sec, its not good that a confirmed anti-semite got voted on to the NEC is it? On the plus side, the ridiculous attempts to get around the IHRA definition have at least been put to bed.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:35 pm

I imagine some of the remainers on here have never been on a boat after watching jaws

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:38 pm

I'm sure they have, just a big one!

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:39 pm

Chip Harrison wrote:The second referendum is coming whether we like it or not.

Absolute cobblers. Are you drunk?

Do us a favour go and live in Germany who are the de facto leaders of Europe. EU is a vehicle for their dominance of Europe. Perhaps you haven't studied history but they have form
They've tried it before - more than once.

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:41 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:The EU don't want a "no deal" brexit since it would damage them significantly, though not so much as us because they are 27 and we are 1, but on the other hand they can't offer us a better deal than we currently have otherwise, as Remainers have known all along, (and as Barnier said this weekend), it threatens the entire EU project, so if they get the opportunity to dodge both bullets they will grasp it with both hands.
My feeling is that they would welcome us back on the same terms but with an additional concession that they would (at some point in the future) consider some of the reforms that we have been looking for. This wouldn't bind them to anything since all 27 would have to agree to reforms, but it would be a token goodwill gesture.

Your living in cloud cuckoo land. The commission will never reform even at the expense of harming their own people. They're like Corbyn ideological nuts

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:43 pm

Two posts confirming Stayingup "top brexiteer" status.

bet he doesn't even like Jaws either.

NottsClaret · Post by **NottsClaret** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:58 pm

I reckon Chip's right, there's going to be a 2nd vote. Brexit isn't going to happen.

And there won't be riots, or civil unrest or anything like that. There'll just be some angry memes on social media, and a protest in light drizzle from a couple of thousand of the creeps who celebrate Royal births and stuff like that. Because it'll all happen over the winter and nobody feels 'socially excluded' or fancies a revolution when it's really chilly. Name me one decent cold weather riot and I'll give you 10 classic summer ones.

Then everyone will get back to muttering about the EU while enjoying all the benefits it brings and it'll be like all this never happened. A quintessential British farce in its own way.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:01 pm

Stayingup wrote:Your living in cloud cuckoo land. The commission will never reform even at the expense of harming their own people. They're like Corbyn ideological nuts

Ok. So what would be the best result for the EU and its 27 member states?
(Incidentally the EU has constantly been evolving / "reforming" throughout its existence. That's one of the reasons that Brexiteers give for leaving. (i.e. "It's no longer what we joined 40 years ago")
Inside it we can influence the direction it takes, and if we don't like it, we have a veto in most areas. Outside it, but with some kind of fudged deal we lose our influence.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:04 pm

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:06 pm

I hate the meaningless word, 'Brexit'. Says a lot about the folk who go on about it....esp the PM and the ilk.

Britain is due to leave the European Union because a section of English society voted for it.

Now more facts are known and the health and care services begin to falter, many have and will think twice.

When we are left sucking up to Nigeria and suchlike, you know it is not the right path.

Personally, I think we should stay in the EU just because they are cleverer and fairer to the ordinary folk, than our bankrupt politicians, bereft of leadership.