Interesting article by Martin Samuel in the Daily Mail about fine margins

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:07 pm

About fine margins:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footb ... rnley.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Falcon · Post by **Falcon** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:18 pm

Got a transcript? I don't give that rag my clicks.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:20 pm

He's gonna look silly when we turn it round and zoom up the league.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:21 pm

"Margins, margins. Finishing seventh last season, 12 of Burnley's 14 victories were by one goal. There were six at 1-0, five at 2-1 and a 3-2. That's tight. No manager, no fan for that matter, is ever happy with a single-goal lead.

Looking back over the campaign, there are probably only two occasions when the locals felt entirely comfortable as the minutes ticked away — November 18, having led Swansea 2-0 since half-time, and 3-0 up at West Ham in March. The rest would have been tense. One goal isn't so much a cushion as a very itchy eiderdown. No-one is getting any rest.

Meaning there was always a chance that Burnley could be in trouble this year. Not because of the Europa League, or because Sean Dyche has lost it, or the players aren't working as hard, just because they're Burnley. And for the majority of clubs in the Premier League these nuances matter.

This time next year, would you place a bet of significance on Bournemouth or Watford — the success stories of 2018-19 so far — not being in the bottom three? It can happen, we all know that. Leicester delivered the most sensational title win in history and sacked their manager the following season because they genuinely feared they would go down.

That is what life is like outside the elite echelons. There are six clubs in the Premier League — Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and probably Tottenham — for whom relegation is now unimaginable. Beyond those, the tiniest alteration in fortune can be the difference between a season of relative glory and doom.

As a former manager of Wimbledon, Watford and Sheffield United, Dave Bassett knew a thing or two about managing small clubs in the top divisions and about the way a single result could change a campaign. He said that when Norwich finished third in 1992-93, the inaugural season of the Premier League, they could easily have ended up fighting relegation with a different start to the season.

To explain — on the opening day, Norwich were 2-0 down to Arsenal at half time, but came back in astonishing fashion to win 4-2. Bassett's logic was that if the result had stayed in Arsenal's favour, or progressed as expected to, say, a 4-0 win, Norwich would then have been under big pressure in their next match, at home to Chelsea.

And Chelsea took the lead after 15 minutes at Carrow Road. Yet, buoyed by their fightback at Highbury, Norwich scored twice in the second half to win — again.

Bassett's reasoning was that on the back of a first game defeat, the early Chelsea goal might have led to nerves in the home fixture and more dropped points. And on it goes, the tension building, the defeats continuing.

As it was, Norwich drew their third game, with Everton, but then went on a winning run. Early momentum carried them, the way it has undoubtedly helped Bournemouth this season. Elite clubs will turn a bad stretch around simply because they have good players, but further down the division, Bassett insists the psychological side — momentum versus panic — is defining.

He has a point. Last year, Burnley became used to victory in tight matches. By October 1 they had already recorded three league wins by single goal margins and had drawn away at Tottenham and Liverpool against the odds. On day one of this season, they drew 0-0 at Southampton.

A reasonable result, it seems, but the type of game they would have found a way to win a year ago — as they did, with an 81st minute winner from Sam Vokes.

Matches are often tighter than the scoreline looks. Going into the 83rd minute at Fulham this season, Burnley were 3-2 down, a goal away from equalising. Then Andre Schurrle scored for Fulham to make it seem as if Dyche's team had been slaughtered.

Even Sunday's defeat at Wolves is a fixture that might have panned out differently 12 months ago. Wolves were a different class and had a mighty 30 attempts at goal, but Burnley defended magnificently, Joe Hart was outstanding — without doubt he is in the top three English goalkeepers again — and, in similar circumstances, we have seen them hang on.

A match at Manchester United in 2016 was certainly little different and Burnley got away with 0-0. Yet their X factor is missing right now.

The results are not coming, the pressure is growing.They are no longer confounders of expectation, they are plain old Burnley. And it's very hard to be Burnley, or any small club, in the Premier League. The Championship is full of teams — from Middlesbrough to Swansea — that were bitten by reality.

Before the season began, Dyche surprised people by referring to his club as 'the minnow of the Premier League'. How could he say that when Burnley were seventh and in Europe? Yet Dyche knew.

With the spending power of others — and not just those inside the top six — Burnley cannot outrun their circumstances forever. This does not mean their current predicament is permanent, or that they will be relegated — there are worse teams in the league than Burnley — more that this early crisis is no great shock.

Bournemouth visit Turf Moor on Saturday on a high.

They were behind at West Ham, behind against Everton, but came back to take four points from those games. And now they have momentum, which Burnley must steal, even by the smallest margin.

That is how it is, at the bottom. Nothing is guaranteed for six months, let alone permanent."

CleggHall · Post by **CleggHall** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:29 pm

Is the guy right, he sounds like a Burnley fan?
Makes all the excuses for our "narrow" defeats this season but appears to think it will all come good in the end. Let's hope Mr Samuel is correct!

Burnley Ace · Post by **Burnley Ace** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:36 pm

I think he makes a valid point

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:41 pm

Samuel is an excellent journalist. One of the very finest.

Incidentally he's a West Ham fan.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:50 pm

Apart from the nonsense about momentum, a decent article.

Dyched · Post by **Dyched** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:55 pm

Exactly what Ive been saying for the past few months. Iur play generally didnt improve last year from 3/4 yets ago. Only the results. When we played well we didnt beat a team convincingly.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:58 pm

Dyched wrote:Exactly what Ive been saying for the past few months. Iur play generally didnt improve last year from 3/4 yets ago. Only the results. When we played well we didnt beat a team convincingly.

But the point he makes is that it doesn't really matter how we play as it's simply down to those fine margins that can go either way.

Cubanclaret · Post by **Cubanclaret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:08 pm

I'm in agreement with his observations. Our win at Chelsea last season was massively important to what was to come from us; even though we lost at home to WBA the next match (unluckily), the players knew what we were capable of, and you don't lose that confidence overnight.
I recall my barber saying last season that Burnley were now an established PL side when we were confounding the odds and I replied that was what people thought of WBA and Stoke a few months earlier.

Didn't WBA finish 7th or 8th the season before we did?

The other factor in this is the fans and the belief around the club. I mean who really thought we were a relegation team after that first day win at Chelsea. Momentum is so important in football; I'd still back us to find ours, one lucky 1-0 win while being under the cosh would lift the fog. I think we might find that this week in the hope that Wolves was our 'rock bottom.'

ashtonlongsider · Post by **ashtonlongsider** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:24 pm

Must be honest when I read the headline this morning I was seething. Thought the hacks couldn't wait to stick the boot in. However I started mellowing when I read the article as he gets it exactly right.

claretspice · Post by **claretspice** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:31 pm

That's a bit of a return to his roots from Samuel.

He used to be required reading - really sharp and insightful - but I think he's generally lost his way a bit in recent years, perhaps believing his own hype.

But there's not much in that article to disagree with and its very perceptive. The only thing I'd quibble with is the idea that our fate is in any way set by early season form. There's no question that winning at Chelsea last season gave us the launch pad to go on and have a brilliant season, and I'd agree with him that far with his example of Norwich. But I don't agree that a bad start condemns a team to be relegation fodder, because plenty of teams have shown in recent seasons that a bad start can be overcome, precisely because all us smaller clubs tend to sustain only relatively short runs of form. See for example Palace and Bournemouth last season.

If we get a break and beat or draw with Bournemouth, then things turnaround. We could easily find ourselves going into the next international break having taken 5 or 6 points from the next 3, comfortable (to a greater or lesser degree) in mid-table and everyone wonders what all the fuss was about.

CaptJohn · Post by **CaptJohn** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:34 pm

Excellent article that just about sums the situation up perfectly. Before the season began I was asked by someone as to how we would do this season and I said that we were in a relegation dogfight before we had kicked a ball. He seemed surprised but I knew realistically that last season we had the "rub of the green" on many occasions and lady luck wouldn't be on our side forever. Sunday was a perfect example. Last season that cross/shot from Vydra just after they scored would have gone in off Corks knee and we would have had a point. This season it somehow misses all his appendages and goes harmlessly wide for a goal kick

DCWat · Post by **DCWat** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:08 pm

Little to disagree with there.

The pressure building isn’t helped by our (understandable) reactions as fans. It’s a further hurdle to get over although fortunately, a win or two, however it comes, and we all see things a little differently. Not much as fickle as a football fan.

Silkyskills1 · Post by **Silkyskills1** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:15 pm

It's the 'mental toughness' that seems to have deserted us. The 0-0 at Old Trafford two seasons ago was the ultimate example of hanging on, digging in or whatever you want to call it. Sunday's result,with the same resilience might have been a similar scoreline to the one at Old Trafford. We deserved nothing from either game but got a share of the spoils at Old Trafford that gave us an inner belief that points weren't necessarily won based on possession or shots at goal.

CombatClaret · Post by **CombatClaret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:21 pm

With the spending power of others — and not just those inside the top six — Burnley cannot outrun their circumstances forever.

That's I think the most prophetic quote, when you look at the vast wealth which backs the rest of the league and half the Championship.

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:28 pm

Falcon wrote:Got a transcript? I don't give that rag my clicks.

Very narrow minded that. It a a good article.

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:34 pm

CaptJohn wrote:Excellent article that just about sums the situation up perfectly. Before the season began I was asked by someone as to how we would do this season and I said that we were in a relegation dogfight before we had kicked a ball. He seemed surprised but I knew realistically that last season we had the "rub of the green" on many occasions and lady luck wouldn't be on our side forever. Sunday was a perfect example. Last season that cross/shot from Vydra just after they scored would have gone in off Corks knee and we would have had a point. This season it somehow misses all his appendages and goes harmlessly wide for a goal kick

Agree with that but would add something is not right in the camp at the moment. The spirit seems low. We lost or let two hard working fighting midfield players and have not replaced them. Can't recall when we dominated in midfield for a full match. Sean Dyche has a lot on his plate.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:34 pm

An excellent, quite supportive article; the bloke understands the Premier League perfectly. His statistics regarding BFC stack up - I thought we were in with a decent chance at Fulham - and it's interesting how he barely mentions injuries or poor form in connection with our "poor" start but concentrates on the fine margins which can and will go either way. Comforting to know there are far worse teams than us in the PL...

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:41 pm

A very creditable article from a rag like the Mail, the outfit seems to be mending their ways on things Burnley FC in recent times.

Murger · Post by **Murger** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:45 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:An excellent, quite supportive article; the bloke understands the Premier League perfectly. His statistics regarding BFC stack up - I thought we were in with a decent chance at Fulham - and it's interesting how he barely mentions injuries or poor form in connection with our "poor" start but concentrates on the fine margins which can and will go either way. Comforting to know there are far worse teams than us in the PL...

So there are far worse teams in the league because Martin Samuel says so?

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:50 pm

Not necessarily.
But I happen to think that will become clear as the season progresses. Five games tell us nothing.

lucs86 · Post by **lucs86** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:02 pm

Really good article that, refreshing to read something not leaning on the 'tired from Europa League' narrative.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:07 pm

A good honest article. The Burnley he describes is the Burnley most fans see. It's only the fools who can't understand why we aren't pushing for the top 7 again.
A long way to go, and many things need to improve, but most of all we have to get behind the team and manager, and let them know that we are living in the real world.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:15 pm

I'm not sure that 12 wins out of 14 by just 1 goal is all that unusual. Bournemouth won 11, for example, and 9 of them were by 1 goal. And they were fairly free scoring. Newcastle were 9 out of 12, Leicester 4 out of 12, Watford 6 out of 11.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:28 pm

I think that's his point; it's not unusual for clubs like ours. It's fine and dandy if you're on the right side of a narrow score-line, difficult if the momentum shifts and you're not - and we're not at the moment.

sixtiesclaret · Post by **sixtiesclaret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:59 pm

Don't usual post as cant be bothered with all the bickering why all the bile against the Daily Mail - Im a regular reader unless its SOLD OUT and have to buy the sun/mirror etc. my god they are crap unless you like looking at pics or which celeb is making the news - thought the article was spot on.

RMutt · Post by **RMutt** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:00 pm

I’m struggling to find the article that insightful to be honest. He seems to be stating the obvious but in a lot of words.

EarbyClaret · Post by **EarbyClaret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:41 pm

A decent article (it would be a mistake to dismiss the DM's back pages on the basis of their unsavory front pages) but as others have said it's not hugely insightful.

Much of our recent success appears to have been rooted in the the Dyche pre-season which,rightly or wrongly, appears to have reached mythical status ans set us apart from 'the rest' - last season's amazing start ultimately being responsible for making us the best of the rest.

As a result of that, having achieved Europa League football, the realistic pinnacle of our ambition beyond survival we didn't seem to know whether to stick or twist. Personally,I would have preferred to see our strongest side (the players who made the Europa League happen) picked consistently - continuity has been the secret of our success after all - the failure to do that seems, on face value, to be the other major factor in our faltering start.

At the moment I see two worse teams, Cardiff and Huddersfield. We have to get the required results against them and reel in a third, maybe Newcastle, West Ham, Southampton or Fulham - minimum requirement.

Pick the best starting 11 from the available players and find a way of playing that suits them. We've definitely lost something of the essence of our earlier success with the departure of Arfield, Barton, Boyd and Marney - none of whom appear to have been replaced in terms of character, attitude and commitment to the cause.

If SD has the quality we all (generally) believe he has then he has to instill those values in the current group and as he would say himself in times gone by 'go again'

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:55 pm

sixtiesclaret wrote:Don't usual post as cant be bothered with all the bickering why all the bile against the Daily Mail - Im a regular reader unless its SOLD OUT and have to buy the sun/mirror etc. my god they are crap unless you like looking at pics or which celeb is making the news - thought the article was spot on.

Can I suggest that you read the link page below regarding your perceived “bile against the Daily Mail “ on here by some...and then You May see why the Rag is so despised by decent thinking people.

https://futiledemocracy.wordpress.com/2 ... l-fascism/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:15 pm

Good article, full of common sense and reality.

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:47 pm

EarbyClaret wrote:A decent article (it would be a mistake to dismiss the DM's back pages on the basis of their unsavory front pages) but as others have said it's not hugely insightful.

Much of our recent success appears to have been rooted in the the Dyche pre-season which,rightly or wrongly, appears to have reached mythical status ans set us apart from 'the rest' - last season's amazing start ultimately being responsible for making us the best of the rest.

As a result of that, having achieved Europa League football, the realistic pinnacle of our ambition beyond survival we didn't seem to know whether to stick or twist. Personally,I would have preferred to see our strongest side (the players who made the Europa League happen) picked consistently - continuity has been the secret of our success after all - the failure to do that seems, on face value, to be the other major factor in our faltering start.

At the moment I see two worse teams, Cardiff and Huddersfield. We have to get the required results against them and reel in a third, maybe Newcastle, West Ham, Southampton or Fulham - minimum requirement.

Pick the best starting 11 from the available players and find a way of playing that suits them. We've definitely lost something of the essence of our earlier success with the departure of Arfield, Barton, Boyd and Marney - none of whom appear to have been replaced in terms of character, attitude and commitment to the cause.

If SD has the quality we all (generally) believe he has then he has to instill those values in the current group and as he would say himself in times gone by 'go again'

Teporting the news is unsavoury is it?

My goodness there are some clowns on here.

Stalbansclaret · Post by **Stalbansclaret** » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:55 pm

But the Mail doesn't report the news does it !! It simply spouts prurient, prejudiced nonsense like a dog-whistle for little-Englander narrow-minded hate-filled bigots.

ClaretTony · Post by **ClaretTony** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:50 am

I didn't think I'd ever see the word interesting alongside Martin Samuel

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:19 am

[quote="Stalbansclaret"]But the Mail doesn't report the news does it !! It simply spouts prurient, prejudiced nonsense like a dog-whis.

Actually you are the bigot. Can't you see that. And in fact how do you know what it 'spouts' as you have put it - in a very bigoted way - if you don't read it.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:48 am

Samuel is speaking the obvious.

Yes, it is indeed tight margins, and yes, we are currently on the wrong side of them. However, insightful journalism would now look at WHY we are on the wrong side of them, and why last season we were on the right side of them.

To me, a few things have changed.

The team is now being chopped and changed - the stats tables about how many players we have used, how many changes we make on average, we are now no longer at the top of that table. There are key injuries (Brady, Defour, Pope and several others carrying minor knocks like Gudmundsson, Ward). Dyche's approach to Europe has eroded some goodwill in the stands and potentially in the team. Our defensive framework, used when we sit on the one goal lead Samuel refers to, is not working the same (probably due to changes in personnel). We no longer have defensive wingers in the squad (Dyche's go-to in a crisis in the past). Our strikers are off form.

This isn't little old Burnley regressing back to the mean (Samuel's argument). These are changes we have made (plus the injuries) which haven't worked. Logically, if we get back to what we do best, we can get going again. The managers who have never been relegated show that it can be done, year after year.

boatshed bill · Post by **boatshed bill** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:48 am

Does it really matter where the article came from?
It was well written and brought up some interesting points.

claretspice · Post by **claretspice** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:58 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Samuel is speaking the obvious.

Yes, it is indeed tight margins, and yes, we are currently on the wrong side of them. However, insightful journalism would now look at WHY we are on the wrong side of them, and why last season we were on the right side of them.

To me, a few things have changed.

The team is now being chopped and changed - the stats tables about how many players we have used, how many changes we make on average, we are now no longer at the top of that table. There are key injuries (Brady, Defour, Pope and several others carrying minor knocks like Gudmundsson, Ward). Dyche's approach to Europe has eroded some goodwill in the stands and potentially in the team. Our defensive framework, used when we sit on the one goal lead Samuel refers to, is not working the same (probably due to changes in personnel). We no longer have defensive wingers in the squad (Dyche's go-to in a crisis in the past). Our strikers are off form.

This isn't little old Burnley regressing back to the mean (Samuel's argument). These are changes we have made (plus the injuries) which haven't worked. Logically, if we get back to what we do best, we can get going again. The managers who have never been relegated show that it can be done, year after year.

I think the insight - such as it is, and its not rocket science but often overlooked, as this board shows - is the importance of confidence and belief, which is really what Samuel means by momentum. I'm firmly of the view that its that which really explains why we're on the wrong side of fine margins, plus the injuries we've suffered and some marginal bad luck (we've conceded some worldies against both Watford and Fulham, and had Cork's "goal" at Southampton not been wrongly ruled out we'd quite probably have won our opening game...etc.).

You may have a point about chopping and changing the team, you may have a bit of a point about personnel changes (not so sure about that) but to my mind that's beginning to dig too deep. What we really need is a break and the first goal in a game. That, together with a few players back from injury and a bit of luck (it tends to run for you when you're confident and therefore brave anyway), and we'll be our old selves again. As I said above, if we manage to dog out a win against Bournemouth any old how, then suddenly with two winnable games to follow things will look much sunnier again.

Dyched · Post by **Dyched** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:14 pm

dsr wrote:I'm not sure that 12 wins out of 14 by just 1 goal is all that unusual. Bournemouth won 11, for example, and 9 of them were by 1 goal. And they were fairly free scoring. Newcastle were 9 out of 12, Leicester 4 out of 12, Watford 6 out of 11.

Bournemouth and Leicester are far different. Bournemouth especially will hold their hands up and know they’ll concede plenty. That’s not a problem for them as they’ll always create scoring opportunities. They may get hammered some weeks. But they’ll give it a go. We on the other hand look absolutely lost at times when 1 down never mind 2. Leicester pretty much the same as Bournemouth. Newcastle are like us, they dont create/score enough to win games comfortably by more than 1. When they concede first and a win is out of the window.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:20 pm

Last season we came from behind in the following games:

West Ham 1 pt.
Newcastle 1 pt.
Man City 1 pt.
Everton 3 pts.
Watford 3pts.
Stoke 1 pt.

That's ten points from losing positions.