Brexit - currency and house prices

[cricketfieldclarets]

Seems to be plenty of experts and economists on here.

So with that in mind, seeing as everything else is so black and white (for remainers at least) what will lewving mean for

The value of the pound vs the euro
The value of UK property
The value of european property
The value of european property owned by brits

Be interesting to see expert opinion vs the reality of what happens in 12, 36, 60 months etc and bump this up...

[Damo]

If I can just answer on their behalf,
You can be fairly sure that everyone is going to starve to death. All buildings you mentioned will crumble and become inhabited by wild animals and a meteor will hit the earth, wiping out everything.
All down to Brexit I'm afraid

[cricketfieldclarets]

If I can just answer on their behalf,
You can be fairly sure that everyone is going to starve to death. All buildings you mentioned will crumble and become inhabited by wild animals and a meteor will hit the earth, wiping out everything.
All down to Brexit I'm afraid

I think it mustve been something similar that did for the dinosaurs

[GodIsADeeJay81]

House prices will rise as usual and then crash again, as usual.
That's what usually happens, has done 2-3 times in my life and I'm nearly 40.

Sure, the haters will blame Brexit, but we are due another crash in house prices.

I think I've made this sort of comment before and it really annoys some people

[brexit]

Seems to be plenty of experts and economists on here.

So with that in mind, seeing as everything else is so black and white (for remainers at least) what will lewving mean for

The value of the pound vs the euro
The value of UK property
The value of european property
The value of european property owned by brits

Be interesting to see expert opinion vs the reality of what happens in 12, 36, 60 months etc and bump this up...

Experts!! Small minded bigots who are trying to advance their own narrow minded opinions because the they are sad white males.
[parse=>rawson@[[claire.ai.org]]]

[Woodleyclaret]

The world will keep turning and nothing will change significantly

[Bordeauxclaret]

The day after Brexit all the Eastern European’s and brown people will go home so they’ll be loads of free houses.
Everyone will be given a free house.
The prices won’t mean anything because everyone will just be happy.
Nobody will bother about the Euro because nobody will want to travel abroad, we’ll all just holiday in the British eutopia that we’ve created.
We will of course still have a blue passport though that we cherish more than our own children.

[mdd2]

UK Unemployment up
£ down against the Euro and US$
Inflation up.
House prices down
UK taxes up
Corbyn PM by 2020 at latest
Migration down as unemployment rises.
Take about 10 years to recover but recover we will
The European monolith will continue until the Euro finally implodes unless Germany alters its attitude to Souther Countries

[piston broke]

London & SE house prices already falling. Partly because they were over-priced and also because of foreigners getting out.
For the rest nobody knows but a hard brexit won’t be good.

[Quickenthetempo]

House prices in Britain boom when all the rich Brits who have retired abroad get kicked out by the EU come home looking for nice houses.
50% of EU nationals who send most of their wage home go home so more money stays in this country.
European property will crash as the retired Brits all leave at once leaving 1000s of villas or top end property empty.
EU workers tend to rent houses here rather than buy so we might see rents come down.
The pound will stay low until we sort the export business out and then it will steadily rise.

[Alanstevensonsgloves]

Genuine question - why would house prices necessarily fall? I can see the link for x rates to the consequences of brexi, but I cannot see why all of a sudden the value of a certain commodity, not subject to international trade, would be affected.

Yes you have probably a small number of returning brits / Europeans, but surely this won't be enough for a more than a % point or two shift?

I shortly need to buy a house hence my interest.

[Sproggy]

Every nurse will leave the NHS meaning the total collapse of the health service.

We'll finally get George Osbourne's emergency punishment budget.

We'll plunge into the deep recession that remainers have been longing for.

David Cameron's predictions of war with Europe will come true as we declare war on France over disagreements about the Channel Tunnel.

Donald Tusk's prediction that Brexit will lead to the downfall of Western civilization as we know it will start to happen before our very eyes.

Anyone not living on high ground will have their houses swept away by the floods of remainers' tears.

[SammyBoy]

I'm currently in the process of buying for the first time so I've been keeping my ear to the ground with regards to this. I'm no fan of Brexit but there was a scare story doing the rounds a few months ago suggesting house prices might drop 30% in the event of no deal. The CEO of a large housing developer was on Radio 4 and said that the only way that would happen is if every home owner in the UK collectively made the decision to sell their house for 30% less than it's current worth, of which there is little to no chance of that happening. I'm not an economist or property expert but it seemed like sound enough logic.

[RocketLawnChair]

Any negativity in house prices will be blamed on Brexit. Similar with the Automotive industry which as walked a tightrope of peaks and troughs for decade after decade but the next slump will be blamed on Brexit you can guarantee it.

[hampsteadclaret]

Good morning cricketfield..

I'm not an expert but I know a little bit of Economics.

Markets, probably every market, do not like uncertainty - uncertainty will generally push prices down.
[this presents buying and profit opportunities if/when you think you have spotted the bottom of that market]

Re Brexit we have been in a long period of uncertainty so this factor alone is like to have depressed prices...at this point uncertainty continues.
This is only one factor though, and many other factors help to determine prices..[eg. wage increases. population change. changing labour market conditions].

CONFIDENCE is massively important in determining what happens in an economy..are we getting good news or bad news?
Many things will change as a result of improved confidence eg. - all these things are likely to increase...private investment, consumer spending, both exports and imports, economic growth, the trade gap, house building projects, government spending and much more.

All this is important stuff, as a background.
You asked four specific questions, essentially about prices.
Prices are determined by changing supply and demand conditions.

Regarding housing it will simplify things if I assume that the UK housing stock [supply] is stable and fixed - it nearly is.
We hardly build any new houses [we build some. but small numbers]..this is a big reason why prices have been rising for years.

If you go with my assumption then, it is demand which is going to shift prices in the markets you mention..must look at short run and long run as well.
I voted out..I still would now.
If we get a 'cleanish' Brexit I expect some real turbulence/problems in most markets as we adjust to the new market conditions..it will be painful for a while, maybe very painful for some...this is short run and may last 6 to 18 months.

After that, when the dust settles and new supply chains have been established etc, and confidence is stronger, I think the UK has a very bright future on many fronts...we will have to take some pain to get the gain...the gain will come if we get out and are patient.
Basic supply and demand diagrams make this stuff easy to fathom.

RE the OP questions....remember..many things affect prices, not just BREXIT.

1. If we have a decent Brexit then £ up, the Euro down.
- the opposite will happen with messy Brexit or No Deal.
I would expect the £ to be under pressure in the short term...uncertainty is not good.
The pound though would recover strongly as the Brexit process ran its course...looking ahead maybe 18 months.

2. UK property - in the short run possibly problematic..London market and SE has been falling for months

If you can take a longer term view [esp. Burnley area] buy now, and take the gains later..they will come.

3. European property - that is too big a question, I do not know....thousands of different housing markets, within the European housing market.
[ always examine supply and demand factors]

4. European property owned by Brits..hard to tell..which bit of Europe do you mean..Bulgarian market vs Costa del Sol vs French Riviera ?
- think about confidence and uncertainty when taking decisions.

Views/perceptions in the short run may be quite different in the long run.
The timing of any purchase/sale is crucial..ONE day could make a big difference.

Personally I think the Crash of 2008/9 and 'Austerity' have been way more damaging for us than Brexit.

I will watch Andrew Marr shortly, see if he has any good ideas.

[Hipper]

I'm wondering if the political atmosphere will trump everything else.

Whatever happens with Brexit May will be blamed and her position becomes unsustainable. A General Election ensues, Corbyn gets in, and does what he said he would.........

[evensteadiereddie]

It's all going very well.....

[cricketfieldclarets]

Good morning cricketfield..

I'm not an expert but I know a little bit of Economics.

Markets, probably every market, do not like uncertainty - uncertainty will generally push prices down.
[this presents buying and profit opportunities if/when you think you have spotted the bottom of that market]

Re Brexit we have been in a long period of uncertainty so this factor alone is like to have depressed prices...at this point uncertainty continues.
This is only one factor though, and many other factors help to determine prices..[eg. wage increases. population change. changing labour market conditions].

CONFIDENCE is massively important in determining what happens in an economy..are we getting good news or bad news?
Many things will change as a result of improved confidence eg. - all these things are likely to increase...private investment, consumer spending, both exports and imports, economic growth, the trade gap, house building projects, government spending an much more.

All this is important stuff, as a background.
You asked four specific questions, essentially about prices.
Prices are determined by changing supply and demand conditions.

Regarding housing it will simplify things if I assume that the UK housing stock is stable and fixed - it nearly is.
We hardly build any new houses [we build some. but small numbers]..this is a big reason why prices have been rising for years.

If you go with my assumption then, it is demand which is going to shift prices in the markets you mention..must look at short run and long run as well.
I voted out..I still would now.
If we get a 'cleanish' Brexit I expect some real turbulence/problems in most markets as we adjust to the new market conditions..it will be painful for a while, maybe very painful for some...this is short run and may last 6 to 18 months.

After that, when the dust settles and new supply chains have been established etc, and confidence is stronger, I think the UK has a very bright future on many fronts...we will have to take some pain to get the gain...the gain will come if we get out and are patient.
Basic supply and demand diagrams make this stuff easy to fathom.

RE the OP questions....remember..many things affect prices, not just BREXIT.

1. If we have a decent Brexit then £ up, the Euro down.
- the opposite will happen with messy Brexit or No Deal.
I would expect the £ to be under pressure in the short term...uncertainty is not good.
The pound though would recover strongly as the Brexit process ran its course...looking ahead maybe 18 months.

2. UK property - in the short run possibly problematic..London market and SE has been falling for months

If you can take a longer term view [esp. Burnley area] buy now, and take the gains later..they will come.

3. European property - that is too big a question, I do not know....thousands of different housing markets, within the European housing market.
[ always examine supply and demand factors]

4. European property owned by Brits..hard to tell..which bit of Europe do you mean..Bulgarian market vs Costa del Sol vs French Riviera ?
- think about confidence and uncertainty when taking decisions.

Views/perceptions in the short run may be quite different in the long run.
The timing of any purchase/sale is crucial..ONE day could make a big difference.

Personally I think the Crash of 2008/9 and 'Austerity' have been way more damaging for us than Brexit.

I will watch Andrew Marr shortly, see if he has any good ideas.

Excellent, well thought out and exolained post. Thanks.

Like investing, everything should be looked at with a longer term plan and view. Rather than what it means today and inmediately.

Perhaps football could learn a thing or two...

[burnleymik]

A quick knee-jerk reaction, then once business knows which way we are heading, things will quickly settle down and normal service will ensue.

[Paul Waine]

London & SE house prices already falling. Partly because they were over-priced and also because of foreigners getting out.
For the rest nobody knows but a hard brexit won’t be good.

Add to that list the "ridiculous" high rates of stamp duty on the inflated London house prices.

[Devils_Advocate]

If house prices drop enough we could all afford to go and buy big country houses and live amongst the rich elite like good old Tommy Robinson

[Paul Waine]

Seems to be plenty of experts and economists on here.

So with that in mind, seeing as everything else is so black and white (for remainers at least) what will lewving mean for

The value of the pound vs the euro
The value of UK property
The value of european property
The value of european property owned by brits

Be interesting to see expert opinion vs the reality of what happens in 12, 36, 60 months etc and bump this up...

Firstly, Hampstead has given a pretty good answer.

I think the "risk and uncertainty" of the Brexit outcome has been reflected in sterling exchange rate for some time. So, once the future deal is known this uncertainty factor will fall away. Economics has (had ? - I'm an older guy) a phrase "ceteris paribus" - meaning, if all other things are equal.... In the real world lots of other things are also going on at the same time. Will Trumps "trade war" start to be resolved or will it be stepped up. What will Putin's Russia do next? And, lots of other things. So, as things are resolved, I'd expect sterling to strengthen against both Euro and US Dollar - but not necessarily back to the levels at the end of 2015 (before referendum was expected to be announced).

UK property - London has been falling for maybe 2 years - but London prices had also shot up too high before that. I hear Manchester and North West prices are strengthening at present. As said, wages plus interest rates are always strongly reflected in house prices. Let's hope we keep all our "Polish builders" because the country still needs more houses.

European property - wow that's much too big an area to think about; France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Netherlands - so/many of these countries don't have the property ownership demand that drives a lot of the UK market - rental is fine for many in many cases.

Property owned by Brits? There's no Brexit reason why the Brits should want to start to come home, or sell up on their holiday homes... But, if they do, it will depend on their local market. Lot's of sellers in the same market will depress prices. If you are selling in a more international area - maybe lots of other nationalities will be looking to but.. So, take your pick - and factor in the local expat tax rules. The papers have been saying that Basque region in Spain is offering favourable tax deals to attract new Brits to their region, if there's a strong response maybe house prices will rise in Bilbao.

[BennyD]

Experts!! Small minded bigots who are trying to advance their own narrow minded opinions because the they are sad white males.

Discrimination on the grounds of skin colour is, apparently, racism. Please modify your tone in future posts. Thanks.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Firstly, Hampstead has given a pretty good answer.

I think the "risk and uncertainty" of the Brexit outcome has been reflected in sterling exchange rate for some time. So, once the future deal is known this uncertainty factor will fall away. Economics has (had ? - I'm an older guy) a phrase "ceteris paribus" - meaning, if all other things are equal.... In the real world lots of other things are also going on at the same time. Will Trumps "trade war" start to be resolved or will it be stepped up. What will Putin's Russia do next? And, lots of other things. So, as things are resolved, I'd expect sterling to strengthen against both Euro and US Dollar - but not necessarily back to the levels at the end of 2015 (before referendum was expected to be announced).

UK property - London has been falling for maybe 2 years - but London prices had also shot up too high before that. I hear Manchester and North West prices are strengthening at present. As said, wages plus interest rates are always strongly reflected in house prices. Let's hope we keep all our "Polish builders" because the country still needs more houses.

European property - wow that's much too big an area to think about; France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Netherlands - so/many of these countries don't have the property ownership demand that drives a lot of the UK market - rental is fine for many in many cases.

Property owned by Brits? There's no Brexit reason why the Brits should want to start to come home, or sell up on their holiday homes... But, if they do, it will depend on their local market. Lot's of sellers in the same market will depress prices. If you are selling in a more international area - maybe lots of other nationalities will be looking to but.. So, take your pick - and factor in the local expat tax rules. The papers have been saying that Basque region in Spain is offering favourable tax deals to attract new Brits to their region, if there's a strong response maybe house prices will rise in Bilbao.

The north west vs rest of the country and especially london always intrigued me.

Sure London is the main hub for most business. Especially finance industry.

But with Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool all in such a relatively small area and all the industry there. Especially since media city etc evolved. And add to that the huge increase in home working it always struck me as way out of sync. Not that its a bad thing per se and not that its necessarily cheap or easy to get on the market.

But are 1 bed flats in London REALLY worth more than at least a couple of 4 bed detached houses in a northern commuter town just outside Manchester?

[Paul Waine]

The north west vs rest of the country and especially london always intrigued me.

Sure London is the main hub for most business. Especially finance industry.

But with Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool all in such a relatively small area and all the industry there. Especially since media city etc evolved. And add to that the huge increase in home working it always struck me as way out of sync. Not that its a bad thing per se and not that its necessarily cheap or easy to get on the market.

But are 1 bed flats in London REALLY worth more than at least a couple of 4 bed detached houses in a northern commuter town just outside Manchester?

Hi cricketfield, the simple answer to your question is "yes" but, we all need to understand what we mean by "worth more" or "value." The market value of anything is the price buyers are prepared to but at and sellers are prepared to sell at. Within the UK we all use the pound to express that value. If we were in Spain the property there would be priced in euros - and we all know that exchange rates can vary. Since the referendum, the pound has fallen against the euro - and it has been cheaper in euros for people who live outside the UK to buy property in the UK - even while house prices in the UK have been rising. It's the same within the UK - although we all use the same pound, demand for housing in London is higher than demand for houses in other parts of the country - and, so house prices rise in London - as they have been doing for many, many years. Demand for houses obviously pushes up the price of land - and the supply of land is pretty much fixed. I don't know the numbers, but we can assume that, in the private sector jobs in London, for the most part, pay more than similar jobs in other parts of the country - and people living in these other parts can pay a lot less for their housing.

Of course, there's nothing fixed about house prices - the London property market could crash - and Manchester/Northern Powerhouse prices could rise. If that was to happen over a number of years, maybe the 4 bed detached house in the northern commuter town outside Manchester will be worth more than a 4 bed detached house in a southern commuter town outside London.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Hi cricketfield, the simple answer to your question is "yes" but, we all need to understand what we mean by "worth more" or "value." The market value of anything is the price buyers are prepared to but at and sellers are prepared to sell at. Within the UK we all use the pound to express that value. If we were in Spain the property there would be priced in euros - and we all know that exchange rates can vary. Since the referendum, the pound has fallen against the euro - and it has been cheaper in euros for people who live outside the UK to buy property in the UK - even while house prices in the UK have been rising. It's the same within the UK - although we all use the same pound, demand for housing in London is higher than demand for houses in other parts of the country - and, so house prices rise in London - as they have been doing for many, many years. Demand for houses obviously pushes up the price of land - and the supply of land is pretty much fixed. I don't know the numbers, but we can assume that, in the private sector jobs in London, for the most part, pay more than similar jobs in other parts of the country - and people living in these other parts can pay a lot less for their housing.

Of course, there's nothing fixed about house prices - the London property market could crash - and Manchester/Northern Powerhouse prices could rise. If that was to happen over a number of years, maybe the 4 bed detached house in the northern commuter town outside Manchester will be worth more than a 4 bed detached house in a southern commuter town outside London.

Good post thanks. The point about the currency fluctuations is a very good one.

Hopefully we go back to the days of $2 = £1 & €1.5 = £1. Then I can buy that Mansion in San Diego and Villa in Costa Brava

[South West Claret.]

House prices will rise as usual and then crash again, as usual.
That's what usually happens, has done 2-3 times in my life and I'm nearly 40.

Sure, the haters will blame Brexit, but we are due another crash in house prices.

I think I've made this sort of comment before and it really annoys some people

Dead right in my humble.

[CnBtruntru]

I think it mustve been something similar that did for the dinosaurs

How did they vote, paw prints?

[dsr]

Government policy will be a much greater driver of house prices. If they encourage/force the building of more houses, or they reduce all the initiatives that help people to buy,then prices (surely artificially high) will drop.

[NRC]

CURRENCY
Interesting question on currency fluctuation as currencies are perceived as value against another, and those with the sophistication make killings on fluctuation. A comparison for sterling with a hard exist might be the Norwegian Krone - a market based on trade with Europe, but outside of it. Now it's not a direct comparison on two counts, one, it is more fully underwritten by oil, and two, its a much smaller GDP, but nevertheless..... My quick research on it shows a spread of 42% of value over a 10 year period, with the high point in 2012, and apart from the freak of the world collapse in 2008 the low range has been in the last three years. The last five year spread is around 12%.

Conversely, as measured against sterling the 10 year range is a 53%, with a material collapse in 2015 to do with the macro market in oil, but particularly strong UK factory gate production values. In the last three years it has traded close to the 10 year average, and relatively narrowly with a 10% spread.

Take out the variable of oil, and it looks to me that there is little evidence that sterling should suffer simply suffer because the UK is outside of the EU - sterling has ALWAYS been outside of the EU, and what we don't know is what the potential of trade deals with the US and China may bring with shackles off.

HOUSING
Also interesting, but let's simplify this by considering house builders and private and publically traded companies, and influenced by, but not at the behest of the macro socio-economic politics being applied by Brexit. As has been said this is about supply and demand, so in general population pressure - do returning Brits offset repatriation of non-nationals? If so their "style" demands would be greater, as would ownership than the lower budgets and the rental preference over ownership of non-nationals, so in theory prices should go up, not down. If the don't come home, and the UK has a labour exodus, then that hits landlords and rentals come down, but the market to purchase would remain pretty constant as that is a different buyer profile.

So now look at the economics for the builder. In a small country land is at a premium. Brexit doesn't alter that. Builder's acquisition costs continue to rise - why would a landowner sell on a down curve? Second, there could be wage pressure as the building labor perhaps comes scarcer. So that supports at least sustaining price and taking a hit on Cost of Sale, if not increasing price to maintain EBITDA. I said earlier look at this from the house-builder's perspective. Their goal is an ROCE (return on capital employed. they don't HAVE to build houses), they're not a socialist government. the facts are simple, there is nothing that compels them to actually build houses, they can sit on cash and make it work in other ways based on the opportunity cost of capital. My pure economics sense questions why new house pricing would necessarily fall. In fact what you might see is current home-owners, sitting on aging properties, modernizing them, aiding private builders over developers.

Just some considered views from afar over my morning coffee

[houseboy]

I think it mustve been something similar that did for the dinosaurs

No mate, that was the break up of Gondwanaland, although the effects weren't felt for about 120 million years, pretty much like Brexit really.

[Paul Waine]

So now look at the economics for the builder. In a small country land is at a premium. Brexit doesn't alter that. Builder's acquisition costs continue to rise - why would a landowner sell on a down curve? Second, there could be wage pressure as the building labor perhaps comes scarcer. So that supports at least sustaining price and taking a hit on Cost of Sale, if not increasing price to maintain EBITDA. I said earlier look at this from the house-builder's perspective. Their goal is an ROCE (return on capital employed. they don't HAVE to build houses), they're not a socialist government. the facts are simple, there is nothing that compels them to actually build houses, they can sit on cash and make it work in other ways based on the opportunity cost of capital. My pure economics sense questions why new house pricing would necessarily fall. In fact what you might see is current home-owners, sitting on aging properties, modernizing them, aiding private builders over developers.

Just some considered views from afar over my morning coffee

Total respect, NRC including EBITDA in a post on UpTheClarets!

[NRC]

more obvious measure than ROCE though, Paul..... if I were to receive your respect I would have guessed that measure. DO you have any thoughts on what I've put forward though?

[LoveCurryPies]

Sproggy quotes...

"Every nurse will leave the NHS meaning the total collapse of the health service." NOT TRUE. A small number of nurses from EU countries may decide to return home.

"We'll plunge into the deep recession that remainers have been longing for." NOT TRUE. Remainers (and I am one) do NOT want a recession, that are warning that a recession is quite likely.

"David Cameron's predictions of war with Europe will come true as we declare war on France over disagreements about the Channel Tunnel." NOT TRUE.

"Donald Tusk's prediction that Brexit will lead to the downfall of Western civilization as we know it will start to happen before our very eyes." NOT TRUE.

"Anyone not living on high ground will have their houses swept away by the floods of remainers' tears." PLAIN IDIOTIC!

[SmudgetheClaret]

The traitors don't want us to have the "cliff edge" no deal so I'm backing that and I'm betting the sun will still come out if we get it ...

[evensteadiereddie]

"Traitors"....

[aggi]

The traitors don't want us to have the "cliff edge" no deal so I'm backing that and I'm betting the sun will still come out if we get it ...

The bar seems to have been moved to a remarkably low point now. We've reached the sun will still exist.

[Hardy77]

Seems to be plenty of experts and economists on here.

So with that in mind, seeing as everything else is so black and white (for remainers at least) what will lewving mean for

The value of the pound vs the euro
The value of UK property
The value of european property
The value of european property owned by brits

Be interesting to see expert opinion vs the reality of what happens in 12, 36, 60 months etc and bump this up...

Well, I have a more optimistic approach considering the general opinions but still have hesitations. I'm thinking about buying a house before Brexit. Right now it's not possible to guess future of course, but even if the worst scenario happens and mortgage rates rise which cause vendors to lower prices, as the prices go low, UK property market will be more attractive for foreign investors. So we can't mention less buyers here. Maybe it will be a balancing factor for the market? Also I found this this article for a clear comprasion of different scenarios. So what do you guys think?

[Imploding Turtle]

How to start a thread and ask questions in bad faith.

Seems to be plenty of experts and economists on here.

So with that in mind, seeing as everything else is so black and white (for remainers at least) what will lewving mean for

The value of the pound vs the euro
The value of UK property
The value of european property
The value of european property owned by brits

Be interesting to see expert opinion vs the reality of what happens in 12, 36, 60 months etc and bump this up...

[South West Claret.]

I think we are due a reduction in house prices in the usual cycle of events, but then there is the added uncertainty of Brexit so double worries for the buyer.

I'm also considering buying a small investment property but now hesitating because of the above. I suppose if you intend staying In the property for a while then if there is a reduction in house prices then it should not effect you but if not and you may need to move at shortish notice you may have to take a loss in selling.

[South West Claret.]

There is no UK economic data of note today. However, the RICS house price balance for November will be released early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that housing market activity remains sluggish.

[Hipper]

Sproggy quotes..."Anyone not living on high ground will have their houses swept away by the floods of remainers' tears." PLAIN IDIOTIC!

The reasoning may be wrong but the idea quite possible:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46517396" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This could certainly have an effect on house/land prices.

In addition, my council (in Hertfordshire), and I dare say many others, are consulting over future house building programmes and is estimating it will be required to build 500 new homes each year for fifteen years at least.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not an expert by any means, but I doubt you can go wrong by putting money in property in the right areas.

[barba]

Although Brexit is all consuming in the UK its not even in HSBC's top 10 economical risks for 2019.

In fact it cites "shaky economic foundations and political uncertainty" of the Eurozone as one of the top 10.

With Eurozone growth slowing, core inflation around 1% and expecting to fall further with lower oil prices, when the ECB can eventually raise rates it is more likely that the US will be looking to cut so it could enter the next crisis with its only options being more QE.

On the counter and although the UK is far from in perfect shape we will probably have the fastest growing major European economy in 2019, record employment levels, strong foreign investment with output still expanding.

The top 10 for those interested are:

1. Eurozone crisis 2.0
2. Trade tensions
3. Brace for (climate) impact
4. US corporate margins fall
5. EM reform surprises
6. The ECB initiates new unconventional policies
7. Leverage risks and accounting tactics
8. The Fed keeps hiking
9. No bid in a credit sell-off
10. Fixed income vol comes back

[Loyalclaret]

Trade tension have any link to Brexit?
My wife wants to buy another property but I am unsure whether now is the right time, we were fortunate to buy when the prices were relatively low last time

[Quickenthetempo]

Trade tension have any link to Brexit?
My wife wants to buy another property but I am unsure whether now is the right time, we were fortunate to buy when the prices were relatively low last time

If you buy the worst house in the best area you can afford you will always make money.

The only way you lose money if you can't afford repayments or need to move in a hurry.
If you're buying a 2nd house with long term plans you will never lose as they will always rise again at some point.

[barba]

Trade tension have any link to Brexit?

US and China

[Lancasterclaret]

Worth mentioning that a Eurozone collapse would be seriously bad news for everybody, whether we are in it or not.

[Loyalclaret]

US and China

Thanks Barba

[aggi]

For people with good eyesight, these were the risks (obviously this is on a global scale, not UK-centric)