Post
by Paul Waine » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:26 pm
Anyone got a link to today's economic projections/forecasts or whatever they are being called. I'd like to read direct from the source.
Whatever we think of "experts" - can we agree that the way the media reports the views of these experts is not that accurate? And, is very possibly driven by their own editorial leanings.
From The Times I read that:
"A no deal Brexit would cause at least as much damage as the financial crisis, the Bank of England has warned.
If the UK crashed out of the EU without a deal the economy would shrink 8 per cent, house prices would fall 30 per cent and inflation would soar to 6.5 per cent, according to an analysis of various Brexit scenarios published by the Bank this afternoon.
In response to the dramatic rise in inflation the Bank assumes it would have to raise interest rates to 5.5 per cent — more than seven times the current 0.75 per cent. Unemployment would peak at 7.5 per cent.
In the 2008 financial crisis, the economy collapsed by 6.3 per cent and unemployment peaked just above 8 per cent."
The article continues:
"The Bank stressed that none of its projections were forecasts, only scenarios. “These scenarios illustrate what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen under a range of assumptions,” it said."
Further down the same article says:
"The assessment comes as a separate Whitehall analysis showed today that Britons will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios — with the economy eventually up to 3.1 per cent smaller even if Theresa May gets her preferred outcome.
The government released an 83-page analysis on the possible changes to GDP, tax revenue and trade in about 2035, 15 years from the end of the implementation period."
We can all read that BoE said "these aren't forecasts, only scenarios..... what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen under a range of assumptions."
So, why didn't The Times open with a sentence that reads: "The Bank of England developed some scenarios to use in stress testing the UK's major banks capital in the event of a no-deal brexit - and found that in the BoE's worst case scenario all the banks had adequate capital to mange those risks."
No where did the Bank of England say "If the UK crashed out of the EU without a deal the economy would shrink 8 per cent,...." etc, etc.
Anyway, as above, if anyone has links to the 83 pages the Gov't has published today I look forward to reading what was actually said.
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