Project fear v1 failed so what do they do ??

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:46 pm

If you care to let us know which bits of a "No Deal", specifically on the Dover-Calais route are better than a "Deal", I'm all ears arise sir charge.

And a "No Deal" doesn't just affect trade, its affects a hell of a lot more stuff as well, and we've not got anywhere near enough time to get all the things in place to minimise the damage.

TVC15 · Post by **TVC15** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:54 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:So, which of these things is what happened today (clue - it is only one):

1. The Bank of England said that a No Deal Brexit will reduce GDP almost immediately by 8%.
2. The Bank of England has conducted stress tests on U.K. banks by making a deliberately worst, worst case scenario set of assumptions that would likely exceed anything the U.K. would face.

The media are all reporting 1.

The answer is 2.

So, it isn’t that “experts” are lying or incompetent. It is that they deliberately allow political spin to completely misrepresent their position.

The banks passed the test by the way.

The fact that you think that it has to be either 1 or 2 shows how little you understand

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:55 pm

OK - I've found the Bank of England's publication:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/ ... -stability" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting to read that BoE is using projections to 2024 - and this date is not mentioned in The Times report. The Treasury - according to The Times (I assume this is correct) is "forecasting" 15 years after Brexit, i.e. 2035.

BoE also states:

"The Treasury Committee asked for the scenarios to be presented relative to the “present situation.” This can be interpreted either: i) as the path the economy is currently on, represented by the MPC’s most recent, November 2018, forecast; or ii) as the path the economy was on prior to the EU referendum, represented by the MPC’s May 2016 forecast. Both are used as references for the various scenarios in the analysis that follows."

The BoE report shows, based on an index of 100 in May-2016 that "no-deal disorderly Brexit" (the worst of BoE's worst) is 105% compared with May-2016 100 - and is (roughly) 2% higher (yes, higher) than current forecast of GDP at Dec-2018. Of course, 105 compares with (again, roughly) 115 for the Latest Forecast for 2024 and 119 (or thereabouts) if the "May-2016 Trend" had continued.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:58 pm

Worth mentioning that Labour have tabled an amendment to the vote in December that would make it impossible for a "No Deal" Brexit.

Can see that actually passing as well, as if there is a majority in Parliament for anything, its for not having a "No Deal" under any circumstances.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:59 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... alysis.pdf

There you are Paul. The Bank one was in my last post.

Thanks, Crosspool. I guess I was busy finding the BoE report when you posted both the links.

Very much appreciated.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:01 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:Just as I expected stuff you then LEFTIST ...

Still nope.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:14 pm

First key part of the "EU Exit Long term economic analysis" presented to Parliament today:

"This analysis is not an economic forecast for the UK economy. In particular: • It only considers the potential economic impacts that are specific to EU exit. Leaving the EU is just one of many factors that will influence the UK's economic performance in the long run. Other factors such as the rise of global value chains, the increasing importance of services trade, technological developments, and global demographics are held constant; • The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses; and • The estimates show the relative impacts of different trading arrangements in the long term and do not estimate the absolute increase or decrease in economic output compared to today. The results therefore show the broad relative impacts of the different scenarios, and in all scenarios the economy would be expected to grow. No modelling can completely capture the complex ways in which the UK economy could be affected by exiting the EU, particularly given the unprecedented circumstances of the UK's departure. While the analysis draws on a robust set of tools and evidence, there is an inherent uncertainty around this type of economic analysis. The results are therefore presented as ranges, and should be interpreted with caution.

These are sensible comments in the Executive Summary.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:If you care to let us know which bits of a "No Deal", specifically on the Dover-Calais route are better than a "Deal", I'm all ears arise sir charge.

And a "No Deal" doesn't just affect trade, its affects a hell of a lot more stuff as well, and we've not got anywhere near enough time to get all the things in place to minimise the damage.

Suppose that will all depend on how Europe feels it can cope without moving the £340bn of goods that we import from them.

The £340bn not taking into account the desire to sell us services and tourism which would also play a part in any solution I’m sure.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:30 pm

Some of the reporting of these figures has been a bit misleading, however some has been very good. The BBC news tonight had very fair coverage of the BOE figures, making it very clear what they did and didn’t mean.

However the message from both reports is very clear. Economically our best option is to stay in the EU, with a sliding scale of badness for all Brexit scenarios, no deal being the worst.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:34 pm

However the message from both reports is very clear. Economically our best option is to stay in the EU, with a sliding scale of badness for all Brexit scenarios, no deal possibly being the worst.

Fixed that for you.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:36 pm

arise_sir_charge wrote:However the message from both reports is very clear. Economically our best option is to stay in the EU, with a sliding scale of badness for all Brexit scenarios, no deal possibly being the worst.

Fixed that for you.

Thanks. Doesn’t really change anything (and I’d say they suggest ‘probably’ rather than ‘possibly’).

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:48 pm

Again, as Spice mentioned earlier in the thread, people on here seem determined to ignore experts who have spent decades in economics and the like.

If you want to believe that a "No Deal" is going to lead us to the magic uplands promised by multi-millionaires who won't be affected by it in the slightest, that is 100% your prerogative.

I suspect that the only time you ever have ignored expert advice is on Brexit.

SussexDon1inIreland · Post by **SussexDon1inIreland** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:36 am

Why is the Government refusing to give us sight of the legal advice they have had on this pathetic deal ??

Because it confirms it’s pathetic and that it’s Brexit in name only

Treason

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:51 am

SussexDon1inIreland wrote:Why is the Government refusing to give us sight of the legal advice they have had on this pathetic deal ??

Fair question.

Because it confirms it’s pathetic and that it’s Brexit in name only

Absurd assumption.

Treason

Seek help.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:34 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Thats what is being mooted, but you've missed out the bit where Labour back a Peoples vote and they have the numbers to push it through (as long as enough Tories back them)

Still think the vote will be a lot closer than anyone thinks, as it is Brexit.

Corbyn would never let it happen, he's more of a brexiteer than i am.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:39 am

That does depend on whether he's the daft old bloke stuck in the 70s (which is the view held by me and you) who isn't going to compromise on his beliefs for anyone, or if he's really this paragon of virtue that Lab members regard, who will work with the labour members to do what they overwhelming want)

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:41 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Worth mentioning that Labour have tabled an amendment to the vote in December that would make it impossible for a "No Deal" Brexit.

Can see that actually passing as well, as if there is a majority in Parliament for anything, its for not having a "No Deal" under any circumstances.

That means nothing, it's virtue signalling to remainers at best.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:51 am

Not sure about that if it gets passed on in Parliament to be honest.

Only got it from a tweet from a political journalist last night so haven't seen anymore than that.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:13 am

Nobel prize winning economist slays the BOE forecast as "motivated by opposition to brexit"

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/ ... 0471313408" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:15 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Not sure about that if it gets passed on in Parliament to be honest.

Only got it from a tweet from a political journalist last night so haven't seen anymore than that.

The withdrawal act has already passed, passing a none binding motion won't stop us leaving with no deal. Only the government can pass legislation to stop no deal.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:22 am

Key words 2nd tweet down Andy

"And I won't make a full judgement until I see the details."

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:23 am

The withdrawal act has already passed, passing a none binding motion won't stop us leaving with no deal. Only the government can pass legislation to stop no deal.

And this is the first stage of that. You have to remember that not one single MP wants a "No Deal", not even Jacob Rees Mogg. They want one if they can't get their preferred choice.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:25 am

martin_p wrote:Most of the ‘dick waving’ has been coming from the mostly Tory ERG.

Not really.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:26 am

evensteadiereddie wrote:Whereas the Tories have been "strong and stable" ?

I can't remember the last strong and stable government from any party.

Roosterbooster · Post by **Roosterbooster** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:33 am

houseboy wrote:And you are right why? Because you believe what you are told by the remain 'experts'? So anyone who believes the leave 'experts' is wrong?

I think the latest “fear-inducing” forecast is actually a government forecast. And last I heard, the government was telling us to leave the EU???
So maybe it’s not Project Fear... and just Project Accurate.

Who’d have thought it... the experts might have been right all along... I did always wonder why they were called experts, and Farage was always called a %€$¥#%

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:33 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Key words 2nd tweet down Andy

"And I won't make a full judgement until I see the details."

He has made an initial judgement though, and it is politically motivated.

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:33 am

RocketLawnChair wrote:Leading up to them two choices the scales were tipped in Leaves favour when people who even before austerity had nothing but shite hurled at them were told (threatened) by two public schoolboys with further hardship. It then became a Fcuk you vote a real opportunity to take on the establishment. It’s hard to frighten folk who have stopped giving a fcuk years ago.

I fully agree with your post but find it funny that these voters thought the answer lay with a couple of other public schoolboys, except only this time one of them was drinking a pint.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:35 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:And this is the first stage of that. You have to remember that not one single MP wants a "No Deal", not even Jacob Rees Mogg. They want one if they can't get their preferred choice.

Rees Mogg wants a managed No deal, you are right nobody wants a no transition no deal, which is what the BOE forecasts are based on, which means they are pointless.

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:36 am

What’s that definition of insanity? Doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome!

That’s what they are doing with project fear..

Then turtle and his leftist mates on here will be
In meltdown cus we got our no deal and pulling their hair out wondering why ..

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:42 am

claretandy wrote:Rees Mogg wants a managed No deal, you are right nobody wants a no transition no deal, which is what the BOE forecasts are based on, which means they are pointless.

But you need to get the EU to agree to a transition, I.e. make a deal. A transition no deal is an oxymoron.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:56 am

martin_p wrote:But you need to get the EU to agree to a transition, I.e. make a deal. A transition no deal is an oxymoron.

Are you saying that the EU would turn down 10bn per annum for a transition ?, a messy no deal works both ways.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:07 am

nil_desperandum wrote:I only suggest that because - as has been pointed out repeatedly - no one , not even on the ERG has come up with anything that addresses the no deal outcome, so if you think it puts us in a position of strength, then surely you have the answers?

I don't, do you?

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:19 am

We need to face facts we live in a country that puts out propaganda on a level if not worse than countries they tell us are to be feared and disbelieved..Democratic yeh right..

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:37 am

claretandy wrote:Are you saying that the EU would turn down 10bn per annum for a transition ?, a messy no deal works both ways.

What, you mean make a deal?

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:32 am

houseboy wrote:I don't, do you?

But the reason I'm not advocating "no deal" is BECAUSE I don't have the solutions and don't hear them coming from anyone. All I hear is vague soundbites of faith and belief.
Surely if you are stating confidently that we would be "in a position of strength" if we walk out with no deal, then you must have some strategies to make a success of it and good reasons for your confidence.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:36 am

Carney was very clear this morning that he’d modelled a dire situation, and the reason for that is so they can plan to mitigate these issues. It wasn’t modelled as a means of scaring people.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... for-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This news here is somewhat alarming though:

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:51 am

AndrewJB wrote:Carney was very clear this morning that he’d modelled a dire situation, and the reason for that is so they can plan to mitigate these issues. It wasn’t modelled as a means of scaring people:

Yeh Reyt !

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:58 am

RocketLawnChair wrote:Yeh Reyt !

You think Carney is lying?

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:04 am

martin_p wrote:What, you mean make a deal?

I mean a transition to WTO rules.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:15 am

claretandy wrote:I mean a transition to WTO rules.

Which the EU would have to agree to, I.e. make a deal. It’s not that hard to understand surely!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:57 am

There is absolutely no way claretandy understand WTO rules. I'd be amazed if anyone on here does fully. If they are so good, why do countries engage in trade deals?

Anyway, the back up plan is looking like EEA/EFTA membership - long thread about the pros and cons of it from a UK point of view.

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/stat ... 8026687488" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:32 pm

RocketLawnChair wrote:Yeh Reyt !

No I think he is grossly exaggerating and manipulating from a position of power. I find it disgusting personally. I have been labelled a Leave voter and a Trump supporter on here I can assure I am neither. I am sceptical of the ******* lot of them, it is an agenda driven profession is politics. But when the governor of the BoE feels he can drive an agenda we are in trouble. There was nothing yesterday to stop Carney giving a best case scenario in all likelihood it would still have been extremely shite but all the same "this is the best you can hope for" allows people to prepare rather than panic and if however unlikely it turns out to be slightly better that's good.

It speaks volumes that he has to come out 24 hours later and explain he wasn't trying to scare people.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:40 pm

I've got a shed load of time for you RLC on here, and there is no doubt that there is an element of political posturing in all these forecasts.......but why would he be so negative about the actual deal that has been agreed if that was the case?

Surely he'd be all for it if he's got an agenda?

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:43 pm

And now Theresa May as agreed to hold a debate on Sunday December 9th on the BBC and what's the first thing Jeremy Corbyn says "I would prefer it if it was on ITV" It is truly ******* pathetic and these clowns are residing over our future

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:44 pm

RocketLawnChair wrote:There was nothing yesterday to stop Carney giving a best case scenario in all likelihood it would still have been extremely shite but all the same "this is the best you can hope for"

nothing did stop him - may's shite deal was the best case scenario.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:47 pm

RocketLawnChair wrote:And now Theresa May as agreed to hold a debate on Sunday December 9th on the BBC and what's the first thing Jeremy Corbyn says "I would prefer it if it was on ITV" It is truly ******* pathetic and these clowns are residing over our future

it does seem daft and minor but he's got a point given the bbc is practically the government's mouthpiece these days with the easy ride it gives them.

i genuinely can't believe i've actually said something would probably be better on itv. never happened before.

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:50 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I've got a shed load of time for you RLC on here, and there is no doubt that there is an element of political posturing in all these forecasts.......but why would he be so negative about the actual deal that has been agreed if that was the case?

Surely he'd be all for it if he's got an agenda?

But even the 'experts' are saying he is wide of the mark LC even in a No Deal scenario. So it all seems rather unnecessary in fact irresponsible for such a dominant figure. He hasn't reiterated this morning he's actually had to explain his comments its terrible IMO.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:50 pm

It would be much better on C4 if we are being honest, with them both supporting Brexit they might get some tough questions

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:53 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:it does seem daft and minor but he's got a point given the bbc is practically the government's mouthpiece these days with the easy ride it gives them.

i genuinely can't believe i've actually said something would probably be better on itv. never happened before.

If only Corbyn was so informed. He actually said it was because that time and date clashes with The Im A Celebrity Final and he wanted to watch it. Granted that maybe a joke but the time for joking is long gone. And if he is so confident of his own agenda he would debate with her anywhere.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:56 pm

RocketLawnChair wrote:If only Corbyn was so informed. He actually said it was because that time and date clashes with The Im A Celebrity Final and he wanted to watch it. Granted that maybe a joke but the time for joking is long gone. And if he is so confident of his own agenda he would debate with her anywhere.

i'm pretty sure it was a joke but i completely agree with you on that - absolutely ridiculous thing to say.

Lancaster is right, above, channel 4 should be the place for a debate especially as they're both pro-brexit. also, it has to include other parties. its a waste of time otherwise. (although its probably a waste of time anyway)