Project fear v1 failed so what do they do ??

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:28 am

Launch project fear v2 of course ! I’m just waiting for Osbourne to do a cameo,

and these plant pots are in charge of the country..

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:30 am

Siri, please translate the above post

"Why can't these experts just get behind Brexit and start inventing sunlit uplands like I have and stop saying stuff that shows what a batshit mental idea this is from an economic point of view"

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:45 am

Therefore everyone you know will have a lower standard of living now as we were told the same just by voting out yes ? remainers give remainer forecasts..

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:05 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Siri, please translate the above post

"Why can't these experts just get behind Brexit and start inventing sunlit uplands like I have and stop saying stuff that shows what a batshit mental idea this is from an economic point of view"

And you are right why? Because you believe what you are told by the remain 'experts'? So anyone who believes the leave 'experts' is wrong? Look bud no-one knows for sure what will happen so to believe the remain 'experts' is no better than the other way around. The only difference is that project fear was a pretty much proven set of lies (we might wind up getting involved in a war situation was one piece of utter nonsense) whereas the leave side has not yet been proved wrong with anything of note. One of the main accusations aimed at the brexit supporters is that we were 'lied to' by the leave side. The irony is the remain campaign was run on the most attrocious set of lies and propaganda I have ever seen and they still lost.

Let's get out with no deal and start negotiating from a position of strength because that is what will happen. European nations and companies will still want to work with us even if the EU spits its dummy out and they will be forced to accept a new deal from within. Add to that new trade deals with the US, the BRIC economies and Australia (they can't wait apparently) and we can build a new future without the overbearing, controlling and massively undemocratic monster that the Common Market that we joined became. Remember all those years ago when we first joined (I voted no then as well)? We didn't sign up for what it has become, it was a trading group, not a lawmaking controlling set of bureaucrats with a bunch of over paid and over expensed puppet MEPs.

Hopefully our leaving will start the process of destroying the whole corrupt edifice.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:20 am

Well there were a number of forecasts by the Leave side that haven’t come to pass either (especially about how easy it would be to get a deal).

But we’re in a different situation here, we’re actually leaving. Nothing changed after the referendum in terms of our day to day relationship with the EU, they just knew we wanted to leave. Trade continued under the same conditions, etc. We hadn’t left. These forecasts will be more robust as economists know what will change. They know what we have as part of the EU and they know what we’ll have under no deal. All the forecasts tell us we’ll be worse of by some degree. The figures may he put by some degree, but everyone who knows anything about this sort of stuff agrees on the direction of travel.

I saw a good analogy about this type of forecast the other day. If you decide to eat a pizza for every meal for the next ten years it’s difficult to predict exactly how much you’ll weigh in ten years time, but everyone can agree you’re very likely to be heavier!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:29 am

And you are right why?

Because I'm listening to people whose very job to forecast this, to negotiate the trade deals we need, to deal with other countries, people whose jobs it is to understand the laws involved etc etc etc

Who are you listening to?

randomclaret2 · Post by **randomclaret2** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:47 am

Can anyone point out any Treasury ' forecasts ' that have proved correct ? Did they forecast the collapse of the banking system of 2008 that we are still paying for ?

randomclaret2 · Post by **randomclaret2** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:48 am

Incidentally their "job " is to serve their political masters, nothing more.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:51 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Because I'm listening to people whose very job to forecast this, to negotiate the trade deals we need, to deal with other countries, people whose jobs it is to understand the laws involved etc etc etc

Who are you listening to?

You're listening to the people who said there would be a recession, an emergency budget, tax rises, and spending cuts within a week of the referendum result. I'm listening to the people who said there wouldn't.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:04 am

Incidentally their "job " is to serve their political masters, nothing more.

Not the people I'm listening to Random.

There jobs are nothing to do with "thier political masters".

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:05 am

Nope, you are listening to people whose job it is to tell you what you want to hear.

You believe in Brexit so much you stopped being objective years ago sadly.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:07 am

dsr wrote:You're listening to the people who said there would be a recession, an emergency budget, tax rises, and spending cuts within a week of the referendum result. I'm listening to the people who said there wouldn't.

But this time we’re actually leaving. Things will actually change and we know what we’re changing to. I don’t understand why people can’t see that this makes forecasting simpler.

Referendum forecasts were based on predicting the reactions of the various markets. They reacted in a fairly restrained way, probably because they knew at that point any actual change was over two years away. Maybe some of the ‘day after the referendum’ predictions were over egged, I don’t know. But this time it’s real.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:10 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Not the people I'm listening to Random.

There jobs are nothing to do with "thier political masters".

Don’t worry, they’ll find a government or european link for every expert who ever says a bad thing about their sacred Brexit.

‘Ah yes, but he once really had a really enjoyable fortnight in the south of France, so of course he’s going to give an EU friendly forecast’.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:14 am

And by the way, Theresa May really wants to get her deal through, her career depends on it. So why she’d be allowing her Chancellor to say the deal was economically bad for Britain I don’t know.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:18 am

houseboy wrote:

Let's get out with no deal and start negotiating from a position of strength because that is what will happen.

Did I just read that?
There are a minority who support leaving with no deal - mainly the super rich and those with vested interests - but I don't think anyone has said that we will then be negotiating "from a position of strength". Initially we'll be totally isolated, and I think you can forget the USA doing us a big favour.
I accept that it is possible that over a long period of time we will recover and be able to make a success of it, but at present we have absolutely nothing in place for no deal, and it would take years, (most likely decades) to train up all the people we need, rebuild industry and broker trade deals around the world. (That all assumes that there are new markets / deals out there that other countries haven't already tapped into by that stage).
So yes, no deal is a possibility, but let's not delude ourselves that it will be easy or that we would somehow be in a strong position.
If it were the case, then why hasn't the ERG set out it's blueprint for the future? They haven't got one.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:21 am

houseboy wrote:And you are right why? Because you believe what you are told by the remain 'experts'? So anyone who believes the leave 'experts' is wrong? Look bud no-one knows for sure what will happen so to believe the remain 'experts' is no better than the other way around. The only difference is that project fear was a pretty much proven set of lies (we might wind up getting involved in a war situation was one piece of utter nonsense) whereas the leave side has not yet been proved wrong with anything of note. One of the main accusations aimed at the brexit supporters is that we were 'lied to' by the leave side. The irony is the remain campaign was run on the most attrocious set of lies and propaganda I have ever seen and they still lost.

Let's get out with no deal and start negotiating from a position of strength because that is what will happen. European nations and companies will still want to work with us even if the EU spits its dummy out and they will be forced to accept a new deal from within. Add to that new trade deals with the US, the BRIC economies and Australia (they can't wait apparently) and we can build a new future without the overbearing, controlling and massively undemocratic monster that the Common Market that we joined became. Remember all those years ago when we first joined (I voted no then as well)? We didn't sign up for what it has become, it was a trading group, not a lawmaking controlling set of bureaucrats with a bunch of over paid and over expensed puppet MEPs.

Hopefully our leaving will start the process of destroying the whole corrupt edifice.

Couldn't have put it better myself, totally agree, but you do realise that you're not going to convince anyone to change their point of view on here. The trenches are drawn and nobody is moving.
Our only hope is that enough people in Parliament have the ******** to tell May where to stuff her deal, sorry I meant capitulation.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:22 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Did I just read that?
There are a minority who support leaving with no deal - mainly the super rich and those with vested interests - but I don't think anyone has said that we will then be negotiating "from a position of strength". Initially we'll be totally isolated, and I think you can forget the USA doing us a big favour.
I accept that it is possible that over a long period of time we will recover and be able to make a success of it, but at present we have absolutely nothing in place for no deal, and it would take years, (most likely decades) to train up all the people we need, rebuild industry and broker trade deals around the world. (That all assumes that there are new markets / deals out there that other countries haven't already tapped into by that stage).
So yes, no deal is a possibility, but let's not delude ourselves that it will be easy or that we would somehow be in a strong position.
If it were the case, then why hasn't the ERG set out it's blueprint for the future? They haven't got one.

For ‘position of strength’ read ‘absolutely desperate for a deal, any deal. Anyone?’

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:25 am

Mental

What the **** are you lot reading that makes you come out with that?

Caballo · Post by **Caballo** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:26 am

We're not leaving. After Mays' offering is voted down, senior representatives in the EU will begin to suggest we can reverse the process, we'll have a 2nd vote and remain will edge it.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:28 am

Caballo wrote:We're not leaving. After Mays' offering is voted down, senior representatives in the EU will begin to suggest we can reverse the process, we'll have a 2nd vote and remain will edge it.

I really hope you’re right. But I fear our political leaders are intent on driving us over the edge of a cliff!

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:32 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:You believe in Brexit so much you stopped being objective years ago sadly.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:33 am

Reading the stuff from experts and the papers today, there is a lot more support for something called a "Norway Plus".

I think the key is that we are seen to leave the EU. If you can convince enough people that we are leaving (though I do take the point that its going to be bloody hard when Mays deal (which involves us leaving the EU0 isn't getting anywhere) then we can get through this.

Failing that, it has to be remain over a "No Deal" Brexit. Anyone who tells you different is clearly not going to be affected by it.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:34 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Did I just read that?
There are a minority who support leaving with no deal - mainly the super rich and those with vested interests - but I don't think anyone has said that we will then be negotiating "from a position of strength". Initially we'll be totally isolated, and I think you can forget the USA doing us a big favour.
I accept that it is possible that over a long period of time we will recover and be able to make a success of it, but at present we have absolutely nothing in place for no deal, and it would take years, (most likely decades) to train up all the people we need, rebuild industry and broker trade deals around the world. (That all assumes that there are new markets / deals out there that other countries haven't already tapped into by that stage).
So yes, no deal is a possibility, but let's not delude ourselves that it will be easy or that we would somehow be in a strong position.
If it were the case, then why hasn't the ERG set out it's blueprint for the future? They haven't got one.

Some of that is true, but wether we stayed in or left, there are always winners and losers. The truth is it will cause problems, but also it will be nothing catastrophic. Europe will always want to trade with us, we are a market for them, even if Brussels would rather cut off it's nose to spite it's face. There'll be no need to train up the people we need, because they will continue to come here from abroad as always. Only remainers forecast this skill shortage, but unless the EU ban people from coming here, impossible, then the only way they can't get here is if we ban them, why would we. Leavers big concern wasn't foreigners working here, but foreigners coming here to live off our benefit system.
We aren't in a position of strength, but neither are they. They want our market, they also want our money to continue paying for the facade that is Brussels, so we do have some negotiating power. May just tossed it away in one swoop. A better man who has faith in an independent Britain could have got far more.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:34 am

Even Theresa May said this week to treat the Treasury forecasts with caution because it depends on what assumptions are plugged in.

Logically, if <10% of business involves trading with the EU, that hit, while unpleasant for them, would not be a catastrophe nationally (1-2% of flattening GDP would not surprise me).

The other 90% of firms must be the reason for the Treasury’s glum figures, I bet they assume adverse exchange rates, raising tax levels etc. There are many other ways to mitigate impact and to build in productivity benefits in various ways for these firms. I do this for a living, I know the conscious and subconscious bias involved in these forecasts.

So, Project Fear will have become Project Bollo*ks.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:35 am

Hilarious DSR

Why don't you come out with the stuff that gets parrotted every day in the news by Brexiteers, and then gets completely shot down by people whose job it is to check that sort of stuff out?

I could do with a laugh

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:20 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Leavers big concern wasn't foreigners working here, but foreigners coming here to live off our benefit system.

That's another lie you've bought then!

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:26 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Leavers big concern wasn't foreigners working here, but foreigners coming here to live off our benefit system.

Sorted, it's possible to control this whilst being in the EU (the reason we didn't bother was that it cost more to do it than the costs of the benefits) so we may as well call the whole thing off.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:28 pm

martin_p wrote:
I saw a good analogy about this type of forecast the other day. If you decide to eat a pizza for every meal for the next ten years it’s difficult to predict exactly how much you’ll weigh in ten years time, but everyone can agree you’re very likely to be heavier!

Even if my current diet is two pizzas for every meal?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:31 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Even Theresa May said this week to treat the Treasury forecasts with caution because it depends on what assumptions are plugged in.

Logically, if <10% of business involves trading with the EU, that hit, while unpleasant for them, would not be a catastrophe nationally (1-2% of flattening GDP would not surprise me).

The other 90% of firms must be the reason for the Treasury’s glum figures, I bet they assume adverse exchange rates, raising tax levels etc. There are many other ways to mitigate impact and to build in productivity benefits in various ways for these firms. I do this for a living, I know the conscious and subconscious bias involved in these forecasts.

So, Project Fear will have become Project Bollo*ks.

Trouble is, no one from the Leave side of the argument (and I mean nationally, not just on this board) will present an analysis of these forecasts pointing out where overly pessimistic assumptions have been used and how a different outlook would change the forecast. They'll just shout 'Project Fear!' ans consider it job done.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:49 pm

aggi wrote:Sorted, it's possible to control this whilst being in the EU (the reason we didn't bother was that it cost more to do it than the costs of the benefits) so we may as well call the whole thing off.

It wasn't possible to sort this whilst in the EU, because they insisted on an open border policy, which gave people the right to come here and claim benefits for 5 kids back in the home land. Its a scenario that could have been fixed easily with a modicum of common sense, but denying that right of passage flies in the face of the United States of Europe, the overall objective of Brussels.
Anyone who denies that this is the aim, need only ask themselves the question why is an open border policy necessary for a Trading Bloc. How does a European Army improve our trade. How does the ECJ having a say over our laws make us either safer or freer.

We have lots in common with Europe, and many areas where our cooperation makes us both stronger financially and security wise. But it doesn't take a sledge hammer to crack an egg.

jlup1980 · Post by **jlup1980** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:51 pm

Whether the economical impacts are negative or not we can't deny the damage Brexit has done to society. The divide between Leavers and Remainers is ever widening and will continue that way for many years to come.

If I hear the words "Project Fear" as a defence for Leave again it'll be too soon. It's such an annoying phrase and isn't an answer to any question that has ever been raised during this whole sorry affair. There are large companies in the UK stockpiling raw materials in anticipation of Brexit. Premier Foods for example. This isn't a small decision made on a whim. This is a decision made by analysts and industry experts who have deemed that this is the best course of action for their business. It can't be Project Fear once companies of that size start making these decisions, it becomes fact.

Pretty much every economist is saying the same thing. We will be worse off in the short and medium term. We don't know this for sure but it seems more likely than not at the moment.

I don't care for the reasons why people voted one way or the other. What I do care about is the future we're creating for our children and at this moment it doesn't look very bright. So just aimlessly throwing another Brexiteer classic at me, "we won, get over it", doesn't cut the mustard. What are the tangible benefits of Leave? I wish someone could tell me because nobody seems to have a clue. Yes you won, yes we're leaving the EU, I accept that. Just tell me how this will benefit us as a nation. All I can see is everyone being worse off and being more divided than ever and that can't be a good thing.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:57 pm

martin_p wrote:That's another lie you've bought then!

there are too many reports to mention of SOME foreigners signing on to a part time job, getting a NI no. and the claiming benefits.
there are too many reports of organised gangs of foreign criminals coming to this country to make money any way they can, and that would include benefit fraud as well. **** happens, but when you aren't even allowed to deport the ******* because of the EU regulations.
To deny that these things happen, is to believe that everybody who comes to this country is a law abiding honest citizen, only here looking for work.
Many thousands of foreigners work here, many decide to stay and settle in this country for good. I have no problem with any of them, good luck and welcome, but WE have to have the right to decide who is welcome , who is not, and to kick out anyone who doesn't live by our laws.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:59 pm

You just need to believe a bit more.

ideally you need to know absolutely nothing about trade as well, which appears to amazingly both make it easier to believe and make you think that though you don't know anything about it, the WTO rules are perfect for the UK.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:59 pm

martin_p wrote:Trouble is, no one from the Leave side of the argument (and I mean nationally, not just on this board) will present an analysis of these forecasts pointing out where overly pessimistic assumptions have been used and how a different outlook would change the forecast. They'll just shout 'Project Fear!' ans consider it job done.

I don't even know what assumptions were made in the Remain claim that a recession would start immediately after the referendum. Do I need to know what they were, to decide they were wrong?

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:01 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:It wasn't possible to sort this whilst in the EU, because they insisted on an open border policy, which gave people the right to come here and claim benefits for 5 kids back in the home land. .

Sorry, but that's simply untrue. I've not got the time to reference all the relevant laws and articles about this, but we are currently in control of this if we choose to do so. (This point has been made on here countless times, but sadly people still choose to ignore the facts).
The question that you should be asking, is why has the government never chosen to crack down on immigration using the powers that they have?
Theresa May might talk a good game, but the reality was very different when she was at the Home Office.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:03 pm

The sort of attitudes that Colburn comes out with is why we have kids waterboarding refugees sadly.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:04 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:It wasn't possible to sort this whilst in the EU, because they insisted on an open border policy, which gave people the right to come here and claim benefits for 5 kids back in the home land. Its a scenario that could have been fixed easily with a modicum of common sense, but denying that right of passage flies in the face of the United States of Europe, the overall objective of Brussels.
Anyone who denies that this is the aim, need only ask themselves the question why is an open border policy necessary for a Trading Bloc. How does a European Army improve our trade. How does the ECJ having a say over our laws make us either safer or freer.

We have lots in common with Europe, and many areas where our cooperation makes us both stronger financially and security wise. But it doesn't take a sledge hammer to crack an egg.

Sorry but that just isn’t true. EU nationals have to be here three months before they can get benefits and then they have to be in work or have a good chance of getting work imminently. So they can’t just come over and claim benefits without working (and you claim everyone is happy with those that come here to work).

Sleeping Cat · Post by **Sleeping Cat** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:05 pm

"remainers give remainer forecasts"

Maybe the people who are researching Brexit scenarios & establishing forecasts are remainers because the forecasts are all negative?

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:06 pm

If we don’t leave the left will have successfully killed our democracy and that is really falling off a cliff...

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:07 pm

We are leaving.

But if people continue to want a unicorn Brexit that they were promised and can't be arsed to check was always impossible, then you are running a serious risk of this project being defeated.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:09 pm

You seriously want to be reading (maybe you don't!) how trade specialists are taking apart the foundations for the governments latest economic figures on this btw.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:14 pm

dsr wrote:I don't even know what assumptions were made in the Remain claim that a recession would start immediately after the referendum. Do I need to know what they were, to decide they were wrong?

No, but you need to be a bit more rational than thinking because one forecast was wrong they’re all wrong!

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:16 pm

martin_p wrote:No, but you need to be a bit more rational than thinking because one forecast was wrong they’re all wrong!

It's perfectly rational to use the fact that they didn't know what they were talking about last time as evidence that they don't know this time either. (Evidence, not proof, before you say anything.)

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:17 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:If we don’t leave the left will have successfully killed our democracy and that is really falling off a cliff...

You do know that large numbers of Tory MPs and supporters wants to remain don’t you?

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:17 pm

Sleeping Cat wrote:"remainers give remainer forecasts"

Maybe the people who are researching Brexit scenarios & establishing forecasts are remainers because the forecasts are all negative?

Or maybe the negative forecasts give the most sensational headlines, sell the most papers / get the most clicks and therefore are the most publicised?

No news like bad news and all that.

Tabloid journalism 101.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:19 pm

Surely with a big chunk of a pro-Brexit printed press, then they would be shouting that from the rooftops then?

You are effectively saying that the press are ignoring the "real, positive" forecasts for sales? Or am I reading that wrong?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:20 pm

dsr wrote:It's perfectly rational to use the fact that they didn't know what they were talking about last time as evidence that they don't know this time either. (Evidence, not proof, before you say anything.)

No, it isn’t. Forecasts by their very nature are speculative, and the less real information you have the less likely they are to be correct. There’s mountains more information than was available two and a half years ago.

I assume you don’t pay attention to any forecasts about anything, because each and every one of them will have been wrong at some point.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:22 pm

So we are still on this "everyone who say leaving is bad is an expert, anyone saying it could be good for the economy is just telling you what you want to hear" thing are we?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:22 pm

Darthlaw wrote:Or maybe the negative forecasts give the most sensational headlines, sell the most papers / get the most clicks and therefore are the most publicised?

No news like bad news and all that.

Tabloid journalism 101.

Don’t you read the British press? Do you think the majority are looking for Brexit bad news stories?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:23 pm

Not at all Damo

I just want to hear more from the experts who say this is a good idea, with the facts and figures to back this up.

dsr is very, very, very good at questioning the experts, often with another completely unrelated question (a common Brexiteer tactic it has to be said) but very, very, very, very bad at finding good, coherent arguments to back up his vision of Brexit (which is different from Ringos for example)