Project fear v1 failed so what do they do ??

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:23 pm

Damo wrote:So we are still on this "everyone who say leaving is bad is an expert, anyone saying it could be good for the economy is just telling you what you want to hear" thing are we?

Point me to the economic forecasts that predict a bright future and I’ll have a look.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Surely with a big chunk of a pro-Brexit printed press, then they would be shouting that from the rooftops then?

You are effectively saying that the press are ignoring the "real, positive" forecasts for sales? Or am I reading that wrong?

The press can be pro whatever they like, they still have paymasters and will report whatever gets them the most sales, clicks or money. Bad news will always get the priority as playing on fears will get the most attention.

I'm not saying no-one will be reporting it, just that it's likely to be secondary to the more impactful stuff.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:33 pm

Right, so you are saying that its being buried cos "positive Brexit news doesn't sell papers".

I have to respectfully disagree. People (especially Brexit voters) are desperate for "good Brexit" news.

The pro-brexit groups I follow on twitter are tweeting about absolutely anything else other than Brexit at the moment. If there are positive Brexit stories out there, they would be all over it.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:37 pm

Darthlaw wrote:The press can be pro whatever they like, they still have paymasters and will report whatever gets them the most sales, clicks or money. Bad news will always get the priority as playing on fears will get the most attention.

I'm not saying no-one will be reporting it, just that it's likely to be secondary to the more impactful stuff.

This is the most bizarre argument I’ve seen! Are you arguing that things like England winning the World Cup or a Royal Wedding wouldn’t sell papers?

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:39 pm

Most Leavers admitted it would be short term pain. Are you saying they should now revise their stance to accommodate an alternative argument that doesn't exist?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:41 pm

Whats that got to do with positive Brexit stories being buried?

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:43 pm

martin_p wrote:This is the most bizarre argument I’ve seen! Are you arguing that things like England winning the World Cup or a Royal Wedding wouldn’t sell papers?

You tell me. How much stuff went on about Megan's father or that daft woman who mouthed off about Miss Markle 'tainting' the royal family? Of course it was all puff pieces, wasn't it?

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:44 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Whats that got to do with positive Brexit stories being buried?

I havent said ' buried'. Feel free to quote me where I did.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:44 pm

Darthlaw wrote:You tell me. How much stuff went on about Megan's father or that daft woman who mouthed off about Miss Markle 'tainting' the royal family? Of course it was all puff pieces, wasn't it?

Plenty. But that’s nothing to do with your assertion that ‘good news’ stories don’t sell papers.

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:48 pm

martin_p wrote:You do know that large numbers of Tory MPs and supporters wants to remain don’t you?

I do know that yes but a big percentage of the Tory party are not conservatives and far from it..

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:49 pm

martin_p wrote:Plenty. But that’s nothing to do with your assertion that ‘good news’ stories don’t sell papers.

I didnt say that either. I said Bad news trumps good. Look at BBC news website right now and 8 of the 12 stories are negative

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:50 pm

You are effectively saying that the positive Brexit stories are being ignored.

And I'm guessing that if I say, for example, where?

You go

"Exactly!"

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:51 pm

How come remainers reasons for staying are how bad it will be if we leave but not a sniff of how good it will be if we stay ?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:52 pm

Darthlaw wrote:I didnt say that either. I said Bad news trumps good. Look at BBC news website right now and 8 of the 12 stories are negative

So point me to all these positive Brexit economic forecasts that haven’t received the press attention they deserved then.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:55 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:How come remainers reasons for staying are how bad it will be if we leave but not a sniff of how good it will be if we stay ?

Because the best argument against not shooting yourself in the head is that you won’t have shot yourself in the head!

Barry_Chuckle · Post by **Barry_Chuckle** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:57 pm

I for one will be glad when it's all over and we find out the the "real" effect of Brexit is........ plus it will give Lancasters fingers a rest

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:00 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:It wasn't possible to sort this whilst in the EU, because they insisted on an open border policy, which gave people the right to come here and claim benefits for 5 kids back in the home land.

I guess I'll be the third person to tell you you're wrong. I'll even give you a link to the EU website:

Migrant workers’ right to reside for more than three months remains subject to certain conditions, which vary depending on the citizen’s status: for EU citizens who are not workers or self-employed, the right of residence depends on their having sufficient resources not to become a burden on the host Member State’s social assistance system,

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheet ... of-workers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:01 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:I do know that yes but a big percentage of the Tory party are not conservatives and far from it..

Well that's certainly true. It's the extremist UKip element within the Tory Party that have brought us to this sad point in our history, and left mainstream "one nation" Tories in a well-nigh impossible position.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:07 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Did I just read that?
There are a minority who support leaving with no deal - mainly the super rich and those with vested interests - but I don't think anyone has said that we will then be negotiating "from a position of strength". Initially we'll be totally isolated, and I think you can forget the USA doing us a big favour.
I accept that it is possible that over a long period of time we will recover and be able to make a success of it, but at present we have absolutely nothing in place for no deal, and it would take years, (most likely decades) to train up all the people we need, rebuild industry and broker trade deals around the world. (That all assumes that there are new markets / deals out there that other countries haven't already tapped into by that stage).
So yes, no deal is a possibility, but let's not delude ourselves that it will be easy or that we would somehow be in a strong position.
If it were the case, then why hasn't the ERG set out it's blueprint for the future? They haven't got one.

Yes you did just read that and I don't recall saying it would be easy nor did I mention any time scale, but at the moment the EU are doing what they always do and acting the bully and holding us to ransom. Do you seriously think that companies in Europe who currently deal with us in a business way rather than an idealogical one would want to lose that relationship? Do you not think that if the EU refused to allow us to negotiate a deal after leaving, and fairly quickly, they would be showing the world what they really are, power hungry and somewhat bitter?

When we leave it's not going to be easy for a while but suggesting that it would take 'most likely decades' to recover is just the kind of project fear nonsense that we've been hearing all along. The EU would eventually be forced from within to negotiate a deal or possibly risk even more countries breaking away.

The problem is of their own making. If it had stayed what it orignally was, a trading block working for mutual support, then maybe, just maybe, it would have been acceptable, but it has moved slowly and inexorably toward some kind of federal states of Europe and that is not what people voted for all those years ago. We did not expect it to become a law making body that takes away power from elected governments in individual countries. The only thing it doesn't do that other federal states do is allow us a vote on its president, how strange eh?

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:16 pm

The EU doesn't have a president.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:18 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Couldn't have put it better myself, totally agree, but you do realise that you're not going to convince anyone to change their point of view on here. The trenches are drawn and nobody is moving.
Our only hope is that enough people in Parliament have the ******** to tell May where to stuff her deal, sorry I meant capitulation.

I know mate, you're totally right. I suppose I believe that in any situation it is right to keep talking but it does appear to be trench warfare now. I keep telling myself that I am not going to get involved in these endless arguments about Brexit but when I see some of the bull on here (and in the wider world) I just can't help it.

Note to self: just bloody stop it, you know it won't do any good.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:25 pm

But you don't do that by repeating different bullshit back.

Thats the whole problem. Both me and martin have asked for the information that makes this a good idea.

We've got zilch (not a shock, but still sums up the issue)

The amount of info that is out there that says this is a bad idea is astronomical in comparison.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You are effectively saying that the positive Brexit stories are being ignored.

And I'm guessing that if I say, for example, where?

You go

"Exactly!"

If Britain takes back control of trade, you will be first in line for a US deal

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -8t3hxk2m6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:29 pm

I was taking the **** somewhat, but thanks anyway!

EDIT - massive caveat that the EU and the US have very different regulatory rules, so if we sign one with one, we will get a worse deal with the other.

General consensus amongst the trade geeks is that its better to align with the EU rather than the US.

barba · Post by **barba** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:31 pm

Is there any indication of what basis the remain calculations are based on as surely there should be some consideration to European monetary and fiscal policy

Are these based on their growth, inflation and interest rate targets or the actuals as there is a big difference between the two. Do they account for 4tn of assets held on the ECBs balance sheet and the credit squeeze impact when the billions of euros in sovereign and corporate debt mature in 2019-21.

With the ECB targeting 2% inflation it effectively aligned itself to the US monetary cycle and when the US enters the final stages of unwind and into recession the credit tightening could have a significant impact on Northern European export led countries, which coupled with weak banks and sovereigns could lead to the next eurozone crisis

Being on the doorstep will mean that the ineffectiveness of the ECB to follow the Fed and BoE into early intervention and the general disaster of a one size fits all monetary policy will mean we are hurt equally as bad. If in the meantime we can leave and establish something beyond reliance then I for one will be relieved.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:35 pm

My point is the US ambassador to the UK, states:

"there will be room for an ambitious trade deal with the United States"

"If we seem enthusiastic, it's because we are. Britain is the perfect trading partner"

And it's not making headlines other than in a few places. I'm not saying either way that it's economic Armageddon or the land of milk and honey, merely that the media do prefer to tell us about Armageddon.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:37 pm

Darthlaw wrote:If Britain takes back control of trade, you will be first in line for a US deal

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -8t3hxk2m6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ok. But anything more than an opinion piece?

By the way, the forecasts released today do make the assumption that we manage to negotiate FTAs with major countries (and seemlessly transfer the ones we benefit from from being in the EU). I guess the forecast gets worse if this doesn’t happen.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:39 pm

Whereas forecasts by their nature are factual, steadfastly accurate and set in stone...

As you're keen to get drawn into an argument on content, or missed it in my last post, I'll state this again - I'm not saying either way that it's economic Armageddon or the land of milk and honey, merely that the media do prefer to tell us about Armageddon.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:41 pm

houseboy wrote:Yes you did just read that and I don't recall saying it would be easy nor did I mention any time scale, ?

No you didn't say it would be easy, you said that we would be "in a position of strength" to negotiate. Most people would infer from this that you would consider it to be pretty easy moving forward.
If not, why did you post it?
Anyway, from this "position of strength" on March 29th when we simply walk away without any deal in place:
How long do you predict it will take to even get back level to where we are now, (let alone before the 2008 crash), and from this position of strength (briefly) how would you go about re-establishing our international reputation, securing our borders, securing the trade deals that we would need, funding the training required to make us self-sufficient, etc. etc.
If you can put forward credible, affordable policies for all these, (and a plethora of other issues), then you should send them to the ERG, since whilst they have plenty to say on the issue, they simply haven't come up with any policies that face up to a no deal scenario.

I don't think that stockpiling food and medicines will be electorally very popular at the ballot box, hence the Tory Party attempt to avoid "no deal " at all costs. And May's deal will cost us a lot.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Darthlaw

- Only issue with that is that the US would like a trade deal with the EU that is significantly more balanced in their favour that the current one*. The danger is that with "America first" and us being the the smaller economic nation is that we'd not do as well out of it as is hoped, and if we fail to agree with the EU, will be absolutely desperate for a deal and hence will be even weaker

Barba

- fascinating stuff there barba, well above anything I know about in enough detail to be honest. All I would say is if there is a situation as serious as that involving the EU and US, then us being separate won't save us (and we won't be, we will be aligned to one or other I suspect)

*there isn't a formal deal, but its not WTO terms either

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:45 pm

Most importantly from that article more unicorn companies. That should sort the border problem out.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:46 pm

Darthlaw wrote:Whereas forecasts by their nature are factual, steadfastly accurate and set in stone...

As you're keen to get drawn into an argument on content, or missed it in my last post, I'll state this again - I'm not saying either way that it's economic Armageddon or the land of milk and honey, merely that the media do prefer to tell us about Armageddon.

When it comes to Brexit we’ll have to agree to disagree. The reason you get more bad news stories on Brexit is that the people with the brains to do the analysis only give us bad news. And the difference between a forecast and an opinion piece is that a forecast is usually produced by crunching numbers through an accepted model developed over a number of years, whereas an opinion piece is exactly that!

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:49 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
- Only issue with that is that the US would like a trade deal with the EU that is significantly more balanced in their favour that the current one*. The danger is that with "America first" and us being the the smaller economic nation is that we'd not do as well out of it as is hoped, and if we fail to agree with the EU, will be absolutely desperate for a deal and hence will be even weaker

Look, I'm not getting into the debate of whether it will be the destruction of the UK or the rebirth. What I will say is what if's, danger of's and as a result of failure is what drove the whole 'believe in Britain' motto last time, rightly or wrongly.

Sometimes it does serve well to balance a point with the potential positives as well as the negatives.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:51 pm

Darthlaw wrote:Look, I'm not getting into the debate of whether it will be the destruction of the UK or the rebirth. What I will say is what if's, danger of's and as a result of failure is what drove the whole 'believe in Britain' motto last time, rightly or wrongly.

Sometimes it does serve well to balance a point with the potential positives as well as the negatives.

What you ask isn't possible. You're asking us to balance a boulder with a feather.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:52 pm

That not what I'm saying, I'm just pointing out the reality of a big economy trying for a deal with a bigger one.

Throw President Smacked off his tits into the mix and its not a route that is popular with everyone!

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:54 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:No you didn't say it would be easy, you said that we would be "in a position of strength" to negotiate. Most people would infer from this that you would consider it to be pretty easy moving forward.
If not, why did you post it?
Anyway, from this "position of strength" on March 29th when we simply walk away without any deal in place:
How long do you predict it will take to even get back level to where we are now, (let alone before the 2008 crash), and from this position of strength (briefly) how would you go about re-establishing our international reputation, securing our borders, securing the trade deals that we would need, funding the training required to make us self-sufficient, etc. etc.
If you can put forward credible, affordable policies for all these, (and a plethora of other issues), then you should send them to the ERG, since whilst they have plenty to say on the issue, they simply haven't come up with any policies that face up to a no deal scenario.

I don't think that stockpiling food and medicines will be electorally very popular at the ballot box, hence the Tory Party attempt to avoid "no deal " at all costs. And May's deal will cost us a lot.

Infer whatever you like bud, I never said it would be easy and no inference was intended. Use the word 'inevitability' and you would be nearer the mark.
And why would you suggest I should come up with policies, it's not my job. I present an opinion, just as you do. And do you know what mate, that is all any of us have at this stage, the only difference is we on the Brexit side don't have to keep coming up with lies to try to overturn a democratic decision.
By the way I've noticed that a lot of remainers are now saying things like 'okay we might be alright in the long term but what about the next few years?' Whatever happened to the 'you've sold our children and their children down the river' sort of argument?

It's not the apocolypse bud. We don't know what the future brings for certain but to fail to stop the rot out of fear of the unknown would be just silly.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:56 pm

martin_p wrote:The reason you get more bad news stories on Brexit is that the people with the brains to do the analysis only give us bad news.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Forecasts on Brexit, eh? You're right, agree to disagree.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:03 pm

houseboy wrote: And why would you suggest I should come up with policies, it's not my job. I present an opinion, just as you do.

I only suggest that because - as has been pointed out repeatedly - no one , not even on the ERG has come up with anything that addresses the no deal outcome, so if you think it puts us in a position of strength, then surely you have the answers?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:08 pm

houseboy wrote:Infer whatever you like bud, I never said it would be easy and no inference was intended. Use the word 'inevitability' and you would be nearer the mark.
And why would you suggest I should come up with policies, it's not my job. I present an opinion, just as you do. And do you know what mate, that is all any of us have at this stage, the only difference is we on the Brexit side don't have to keep coming up with lies to try to overturn a democratic decision.

Which lies exactly?

And you only need to look further up this thread for the perpetuation of Brexit lies.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:09 pm

Darthlaw wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors

Forecasts on Brexit, eh? You're right, agree to disagree.

As I said before, disbelieving all forecasts because one was wrong, especially as we have more information now, is completely irrational.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:19 pm

Worth mentioning as well the figures that are being used for the best possible (apart from remain!) forecast today are taken from the chequers deal, not the one that the government has agreed to.

Which is pretty close to lying to everyone that I can think of.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:27 pm

Darthlaw wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors

Forecasts on Brexit, eh? You're right, agree to disagree.

And by the way I really, really hope you Brexit lot are right, because we’re stuffed for a significant number of years if you aren’t. There’ll be no one happier than me if the experts are wrong.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:29 pm

Aye, I'd rather be totally wrong about this than absolutely anything.

But there is too much evidence from people who know what they are talking about to draw any other conclusion.

JohnMac · Post by **JohnMac** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:35 pm

What happens if there was a second referendum and the result was 'Leave'?

I'm interested because all the 'Remainers' seem cock sure it would be a landslide in their favour.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:36 pm

The one thing that remoaners cannot get into their pig headed skulls. Is that when more than 17,400,000 Britons voted "leave" , in the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed. It wasn't just about the economy.

Doubt the penny will ever drop.......

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:37 pm

Then we'd leave.

And probably leave under "No Deal".

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:39 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Aye, I'd rather be totally wrong about this than absolutely anything.
.

Highly unlikely as, despite being presented with independently sourced facts, Lancaster claret doesn't do wrong.

Ever..........

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:41 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:The one thing that remoaners cannot get into their pig headed skulls. Is that when more than 17,400,000 Britons voted "leave" , in the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed. It wasn't just about the economy.

Doubt the penny will ever drop.......

I can't wait until unemployment spikes and you start to complain that it's because of lazy benefits scroungers. Or maybe the Tories will get rid of the minimum wage, paternity leave, holiday time laws so that unemployment doesn't spike but where everyone's living on £4/hour and working 80 hour weeks. All because you didn't want to allow "rapefugees" to have somewhere to live in little England.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:48 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:I can't wait until unemployment spikes and you start to complain that it's because of lazy benefits scroungers. Or maybe the Tories will get rid of the minimum wage, paternity leave, holiday time laws so that unemployment doesn't spike but where everyone's living on £4/hour and working 80 hour weeks. All because you didn't want to allow "rapefugees" to have somewhere to live in little England.

Desperate.......

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:50 pm

This is good. Really good. We do have some absolute batshit mentalists as politicians at the moment. This lad would probably struggle if he had to organise a budget.

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/stat ... 3852454912" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;