How can an average person benefit from Brexit

[Inchy]

During the global financial crash I know a few people that invested in property when house prices hit rock bottom, then rented them out for a few years, then flogged them when prices went up.

I am not clued up financially. I’ve got myself on a fixed term mortgage over the next 5 years to hopefully ride out any issues but that’s only because I was advised to do so.

I am aware that many very rich people will
benefit from Brexit financially, but can the average joe benefit if they invest their modest savings wisely?

[brexit]

I make a mean tikka masala

[Lancasterclaret]

Yup

Set yourself up as a "Brexit Grief Councillor"

You will have hordes of clients who come to you (in complete confidence) to whinge about what they haven't got from Brexit but they were promised.

Charge a sensible fee and work weekends and evenings and you'll be coining it in.

Oh, to coin it in even more insist on being paid in dollars.

[martin_p]

Yup

Set yourself up as a "Brexit Grief Councillor"

You will have hordes of clients who come to you (in complete confidence) to whinge about what they haven't got from Brexit but they were promised.

Charge a sensible fee and work weekends and evenings and you'll be coining it in.

Oh, to coin it in even more insist on being paid in dollars.

Euros would be funnier.

[Lancasterclaret]

Yeah, but a "No Deal" scenario, that will take a hit as well.

Dollars will hold their value.

[martin_p]

Yeah, but a "No Deal" scenario, that will take a hit as well.

Dollars will hold their value.

But the look on their faces when you say you only take euros.......priceless!

[Lancasterclaret]

You are not taking this seriously enough. The OP wants to know how to make money out of Brexit.

[martin_p]

You are not taking this seriously enough. The OP wants to know how to make money out of Brexit.

Oh Lancaster, have you learned nothing! Brexit is not about money. It’s about that undefinable something that makes you feel better about yourself at someone else’s expense.

[AndrewJB]

I’m no expert, but from what ive seen the rungs of a housing ladder get closer together in a downturn, so as long as you’ve got a secure income and enough equity within your existing property, then it could be a good time to upsize to a bigger house, or a nicer neighbourhood.

[South West Claret.]

"How can an average person benefit from Brexit" Good question...i'm looking forward to the outers informing us.

[bedfords]

Makes gullible moron spotting easier.

[Quickenthetempo]

You have no chance of making money once we leave the EU.
I mean there's not a single person in Switzerland, China, USA, New Zealand etc making money.

[Goobs]

Be part of the rioting and make sure you grab yourself some top notch loot in the madness. Then when it all dies down you can open a store and sell it all off. Job done.

[kentonclaret]

Buy 6 large commercial fridges and keep them well stocked with french cheeses and continental meats. Check the dates for freshness.

If it is a No Deal Brexit you will make a killing, with supplies held up at the ports you can flog the produce to wealthy clients and restaurants in London.

If an orderly Brexit you will at least be able to open a deli or sandwich shop.

[nil_desperandum]

You have no chance of making money once we leave the EU.
I mean there's not a single person in Switzerland, China, USA, New Zealand etc making money.

None of which have ever crashed out of the single market and customs union, and of course, Switzerland accepts EU laws in exchange for access to the Single Market including Freedom of Movement of People... oh, .. and I forgot they are in Schengen as well.
Other that that it's a good comparison to make.

[Quickenthetempo]

None of which have ever crashed out of the single market and customs union, and of course, Switzerland accepts EU laws in exchange for access to the Single Market including Freedom of Movement of People... oh, .. and I forgot they are in Schengen as well.
Other that that it's a good comparison to make.

What about Thailand then? Plenty of very rich people there.

Come on, it must be down to the EU somewhere along the line in your EU loving head?

[nil_desperandum]

What about Thailand then? Plenty of very rich people there.

Come on, it must be down to the EU somewhere along the line in your EU loving head?

Thailand have never crashed out of the EU with no deal and nothing in place either.
Nothing to do with whether anyone loves the EU or not, it's just the reality of where we are, and how close we are to March 29th.
Anyway, it's protecting the poor that concerns me in a no deal scenario, not getting even richer quick like Redwood, JRM, Banks etc.

[Quickenthetempo]

Thailand have never crashed out of the EU with no deal and nothing in place either.
Nothing to do with whether anyone loves the EU or not, it's just the reality of where we are, and how close we are to March 29th.
Anyway, it's protecting the poor that concerns me in a no deal scenario, not getting even richer quick like Redwood, JRM, Banks etc.

The EU haven't really protected the poor so far have they?

Record number of homeless, record number of people in poverty.

Why do you think it was the working class areas that voted out and leafy London suburbs voting in?

[Inchy]

Can we stay on topic please


Can anyone tell me how to invest so I don’t lose out over the next few years. I want to benefit from this debacle

[Quickenthetempo]

Can we stay on topic please


Can anyone tell me how to invest so I don’t lose out over the next few years. I want to benefit from this debacle

For you to make money, some poor sod has to lose it.

A few key points for a working man to make money.

Stay away from (buying) cocaine and cars as much as you can.
Buy the biggest property you can in the nicest area and take a family member or friend in as a lodger to pay a chunk of the mortgage.

[JohnMac]

Buy loads of beer, Cheddar cheese, pickled onions, pork pies and some pork scratchings with maybe a few pallets worth of Scampi Fries.

Once we're out stuff from Europe will stop arriving immediately with wine, Continental lager, cheese and funny tasting meat products diverted to Albania and Romania or other such EU strongholds.

The pretentious wine drinking, Continental lager sipping, Tapas nibbling, cheese snobby generation will soon need a substitute and revert to good old British Fayre.

'Inchy's Ploughman Lunch Ltd'

[aggi]

The EU haven't really protected the poor so far have they?

Record number of homeless, record number of people in poverty.

Why do you think it was the working class areas that voted out and leafy London suburbs voting in?

Ah, those leafy London suburbs:



You've given examples of how people can also do well if they're not in the EU but you haven't answered the question on how an average person can benefit from Brexit. I'd have thought posters like DSR and Crosspool would have been all over this.

[Quickenthetempo]

Ah, those leafy London suburbs:



You've given examples of how people can also do well if they're not in the EU but you haven't answered the question on how an average person can benefit from Brexit. I'd have thought posters like DSR and Crosspool would have been all over this.

Things won't be much different, just like the bankers crash.

If you have money you can make it.

There could be a huge rise in pop up shops selling British stuff made here if Supermarkets struggle as much as Lancaster claims.

But if I knew I would be doing it or telling people about it on telly for a huge pay packet, not giving my views on a football messageboard.

[aggi]

Can we stay on topic please


Can anyone tell me how to invest so I don’t lose out over the next few years. I want to benefit from this debacle

In terms of a serious answer, the most likely is currency speculation. A no deal would see sterling drop even lower so if you'd bought up foreign currency beforehand you could make a profit on selling it. Other areas such as buying distressed companies and selling their assets could also prove profitable (given the reporting on how few companies are preparing for no deal their could be a fair number of these companies).

Obviously, the risk is that if we opted to remain or ended up with some kind of Norway+ model the increased stability would probably lead to a stronger pound so it's all a bit of a gamble when everything is so up in the air.

[nil_desperandum]

The EU haven't really protected the poor so far have they?

Record number of homeless, record number of people in poverty.

Blame those on the EU if you want. Who will you blame once we are out?
Maybe you should be looking a bit closer to home and the type of governments we elect?
The EU have much less influence on domestic policy than you might choose to believe.

[Quickenthetempo]

Blame those on the EU if you want. Who will you blame once we are out?
Maybe you should be looking a bit closer to home and the type of governments we elect?
The EU have much less influence on domestic policy than you might choose to believe.

Oh I do blame our government and I do think the EU is pointless.

The only argument anyone has for remaining is the trading. A fair one I might add.

But we could scrap the EU, not have to pay 350m a week and everyone could have free trade deals. How good would that be?

[nil_desperandum]

Oh I do blame our government and I do think the EU is pointless.

The only argument anyone has for remaining is the trading. A fair one I might add.

But we could scrap the EU, not have to pay 350m a week and everyone could have free trade deals. How good would that be?

Well at least we agree on one very important point.
But re: the EU,- for starters we only pay £150 million net / week , (according to actual Treasury figures), and virtually all economic analyses say that the £150 million a week represents a decent investment for the trade and "benefits" we get from the club.
Incidentally, we have so far only been talking about a Withdrawal Agreement not a Trade Agreement. Once we leave, do you think that the EU will let us have a free trade agreement without contributing financially? If they do then Switzerland and Norway wouldn't be very happy, since they have to pay for access and accept EU rules.

[Imploding Turtle]

We all know who will be the ones to pay for any economic down-tastrophe that is the result of Brexit. They're the same people who paid for the 2008 economic crash; poor people. The rich will get tax cuts while the poor will get cuts to government services.

[dsr]

Once we leave, do you think that the EU will let us have a free trade agreement without contributing financially?

This is the problem. In normality, a trade deal that allows them to export £320bn to us and us to export £240bn to them would not lead people to conclude that we ought to pay them for the privilege. The reverse, in fact. But because of the specific situation where we are perceived as the troublemakers for leaving, and because the EU feels it has to be seen to be punishing us, there is this suggestion that we should pay to access a mutual agreement that works in their favour.

[dsr]

In terms of a serious answer, the most likely is currency speculation. A no deal would see sterling drop even lower so if you'd bought up foreign currency beforehand you could make a profit on selling it. Other areas such as buying distressed companies and selling their assets could also prove profitable (given the reporting on how few companies are preparing for no deal their could be a fair number of these companies).

Obviously, the risk is that if we opted to remain or ended up with some kind of Norway+ model the increased stability would probably lead to a stronger pound so it's all a bit of a gamble when everything is so up in the air.

The contradiction inherent is that if the currency falls, then companies in the UK will find it cheaper to export to the EU and the additional tariffs will only offset that; so we'll be back where we started. No effect on exports. It's the other way round that will suffer - the Euro rises so countries in the EU that export to the UK are hit with a double whammy - the cost of their goods sold in the UK will rise because of exchange rates and will rise again because of tariffs.

The problem with investing anything based on future events, is that the full time professionals in the game already know all the predictions, and the prices now reflect those views. The way to make money (just as it is with bookmakers) is to either predict the outcome of the Brexit negotiations correctly, because the current prices of everything are based on a range of predictions; or work out where the professionals are wrong and act on that.

[Rowls]

I am aware that many very rich people will benefit from Brexit financially, but can the average joe benefit if they invest their modest savings wisely?

Hi Inchy!

Re. Your quote above - This really isn't completely true. *Some* very rich people might benefit no matter what because (a) there are lots of them and (b) they can afford the invest in schemes most of us could never afford to invest in.

But the idea that "very rich people will benefit from Brexit financially" is simply not true. If Brexit does not work out in the long run then very rich people will actually lose a lot more than very poor people - for the simple reason that the very rich people have lot more money to lose in the first place.

Imagine there are two horses running in a race and you are a "very rich" person who gambles on horses to make your money. One horse is terrific odds - 5-1 and the other is 2-1 favourite. What the "very rich" do financially is the equivalent of betting on both horses, whilst hedging their bets on what they believe the most likely outcome. So in this circumstance they might put, say, £1 million on the 5-1 outsider and £6 million on the 2-1 favourite.

If the favourite comes in they make £12 million on the £6 million bet. If the 5-1 comes in then they might have 'made' £5 million but they have also lost £6 million on the second bet.

Of course, those who gamble a lot might have worked out that the bookmaker won't be in business very long. But I've made up those odds just as an example. The likelihood of gains as large as that are virtually non-existent.

Of course, the "very rich" don't have to hedge their bets - they're free to invest whichever way they want, but by spreading their bets they mitigate any potential losses.

So when you read of the "very rich" making money out of Brexit remember that they've gambled their money in order to do so. There's no guarantee of them making a single penny. Of course, they can only afford to do this because they are "very rich".

And then some journalist will write it up and imply it's a grand conspiracy to make "very rich people" even more money and try and put some kind of moral slant on it.

This is what happened immediately after Brexit when Nigel Farage was accused of "making money" out of Brexit through his investments - the truth is that he "lost" a lot of money (or more accurately, value in his investments) because the market dropped immediately after the vote.

The only reason "very rich" people will make some money (but almost certainly lose more than they make) out of Brexit is because they have more money to start with.

The only way to make money out of Brexit is by predicting what will happen exactly and investing your money accordingly. If for example you predicted that the UK would strike a complete free trade deal with the entirety of Africa I would strongly advise putting money into grocery companies - they would benefit enormously from the reduced cost of farm produce in such an event. This outcome is, unfortunately, only slightly less likely than winning the jackpot on the lottery. However, if I truly believed that was 100% going to happen I would invest my own money and make a shed load.

To answer your question on what to invest in - if you only have a little bit to invest then don't. Put your money into something much less risky like an ISA.

When you hear about "very rich people" making money from Bexit you are reading it because (a) they can afford to invest at longer odds (they can afford the loss) and (b) because somebody wants you to imagine that there is a conspiracy of "very rich people" making money.

Most very rich people will lose money if Brexit is bad for the economy but you won't read about it because "rich man loses 10% of £300 million fortune" isn't a story that anybody is particularly interested in.

If you can't afford to lose money then don't invest it in stocks the way the very rich do - they can afford the losses.

[Herts Clarets]

Well at least we agree on one very important point.
But re: the EU,- for starters we only pay £150 million net / week , (according to actual Treasury figures), and virtually all economic analyses say that the £150 million a week represents a decent investment for the trade and "benefits" we get from the club.
Incidentally, we have so far only been talking about a Withdrawal Agreement not a Trade Agreement. Once we leave, do you think that the EU will let us have a free trade agreement without contributing financially? If they do then Switzerland and Norway wouldn't be very happy, since they have to pay for access and accept EU rules.

So how about the countries who are in the club who actually are paid to be members of the club and are also able to access all the trade agreements that cost the UK £150m per week net? There are 16 such countries by the way from the most recent figures I viewed.....

[Rowls]

I am aware that many very rich people will benefit from Brexit financially, but can the average joe benefit if they invest their modest savings wisely?

And as a final addendum, ask yourself this:

You say you are aware of rich people making money out of Brexit but you don't know how they are doing it and want to know if you can get in on the act.

It might be worth asking why you were so convinced that the rich were definitely making money out of Brexit? If they truly are going to make money out of Brexit then shouldn't it have been a lot easier for somebody to have explained how they were going to make this money before you had to ask on a football forum?

Ducks quacks don't echo
There are more canals in Birmingham than in Venice
The USA spent millions developing space pens whilst the Russians used pencils
Cooking oil stops pasta sticking together
The Great Wall of China is visible from space
Bob Holness played saxophone on Baker Street

We are all aware of these things just as in the same way you are aware of rich people "making money" from Brexit and yet we're not likely to know how or why we are aware of these things.

[JohnMcGreal]

I am not clued up financially. I’ve got myself on a fixed term mortgage over the next 5 years to hopefully ride out any issues but that’s only because I was advised to do so.

You took advice from an expert? That won't go down well on here.

[Lancasterclaret]

To be fair, he didn't actually say that.

he could have been "advised to do so" by his cat for all we know...

[Rowls]

You took advice from an expert? That won't go down well on here.

How did the "experts" get on with their previous Brexit predictions?

Immediate recession? Emergency budget? Unemployment up?

No, no and no. And a whole lot more besides.

The truth is JohnMcGreal that investing is much akin to gambling. Anybody pronouncing themselves an "expert" is likely full of manure.

They are gambling by another name, albeit in a much more sensible manner.

[dsr]

You took advice from an expert? That won't go down well on here.

Taking advice from an expert is a good thing where mortgages are concerned. Not because the experts are right, because the misselling scandals have proved that they are far from infallible; but because some people won, others lost, and the losers got a refund of what they had lost while the winners got to keep their winnings.

[Lancasterclaret]

This is where everyone remembers that Mark Carney is an internally renown banker who is rightly credited with running the Bank of England, while Rowls works as a barmen in france.

Nothing against that at all as its an ace job, but he won't know as much as Mark Carney. Ever.

[dsr]

I don't know what Rowls what doing in 2008, but I know what numerous inernationally (or internally) renowned bankers were doing.

[Colburn_Claret]

I would suggest the best advice is don't do anything in a knee jerk reaction.
The day we leave I would expect the markets to plummit and the pound to drop, but it will creep back to near normal levels in a few weeks. Thats just the way of the world. The money markets, Bankers, just use it as an excuse to try and make more money. Their shenanigans makes the whole scenario look far worse than it is.
If you have any options of long term investment that are safe, ring fenced, then go for it.

[MACCA]

People saying the rich will be ok, the poor not so much. Where does that leave the middle people?

So how do I find out if I'm in the rich camp, poor camp or somewhere in between?

[timshorts]

Move to the South East, preferably in an area where Labour have a bit of a chance of winning a seat from the Tories.

Up to this point, the EU have been investing in deprived/disadvantaged areas of the country. There's naff all chance of that continuing in non-Tory/swing constituencies.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

How can an average person benefit from Brexit?

1: Sell up.
2: Move to Europe.
3: Open a business and live in Europe after Brexit.

[aggi]

The contradiction inherent is that if the currency falls, then companies in the UK will find it cheaper to export to the EU and the additional tariffs will only offset that; so we'll be back where we started. No effect on exports. It's the other way round that will suffer - the Euro rises so countries in the EU that export to the UK are hit with a double whammy - the cost of their goods sold in the UK will rise because of exchange rates and will rise again because of tariffs.

The problem with investing anything based on future events, is that the full time professionals in the game already know all the predictions, and the prices now reflect those views. The way to make money (just as it is with bookmakers) is to either predict the outcome of the Brexit negotiations correctly, because the current prices of everything are based on a range of predictions; or work out where the professionals are wrong and act on that.

The point re: financially distressed companies wasn't in relation to exchange rate issues (the FX speculation was meant to be a separate point) but other issues that businesses may have, particularly with a hard Brexit. Supply chain issues is the obvious one, a drop in disposable income, not enough working capital to see out a rough month post-Brexit (if BMW do close their plants for a few weeks for instance, that's going to impact on a whole variety of other businesses). In terms of FX, then businesses that import may well get hit, particularly if there are a load of tariffs as well, then there'll be a double whammy of increased costs due to FX and then tariffs on top (obviously you've posed that as solely a problem for EU companies but Thomas Cook today showed what problems can arise with increasing prices for Spanish hotels).

[dsr]

The point re: financially distressed companies wasn't in relation to exchange rate issues (the FX speculation was meant to be a separate point) but other issues that businesses may have, particularly with a hard Brexit. Supply chain issues is the obvious one, a drop in disposable income, not enough working capital to see out a rough month post-Brexit (if BMW do close their plants for a few weeks for instance, that's going to impact on a whole variety of other businesses). In terms of FX, then businesses that import may well get hit, particularly if there are a load of tariffs as well, then there'll be a double whammy of increased costs due to FX and then tariffs on top (obviously you've posed that as solely a problem for EU companies but Thomas Cook today showed what problems can arise with increasing prices for Spanish hotels).

Yes, of course there will be plusses and minuses, and yes, it would be better for both sides if free trade continued. But as for supply chain issues, I suspect they will cause as much trouble as the millennium bug and the introduction of the Euro caused - ie. not a lot. This is not the introduction of a new system, because sytems are already in place for import from rest-of-the-world countries. I doubt that Customs & Excise are going to look on this as a chance to come down heavy and cause holdups - they'll be test checking with a light touch.

BMW are changing the date of their annual closure of their Cowley plant to ensure there aren't any difficulties. They will still be operating for the same number of weeks per year as they always do.

[Lancasterclaret]

This is where us UK-EU haulage and freight ferry guys come swinging in with a dose of reality.

The position at Dover for non-EU imports will be a sensible size for the current amount of non-EU imports/exports. Overnight it will have to deal with ALL imports/exports. That is going to cause massive delays, and there is no way a "light customs touch" fits with the narrative of controlling our borders.

Ditto the ones on the Irish Sea (for Ireland) and the North Sea.

And the millenium bug wasn't an issue because a **** load of work was done over a number of years to minimise it. We don't have years for this. We have months.

If we are going to "No Deal", then we need to delay Brexit till we are ready. Its that simple.

Carry on!

[dsr]

The position at Dover for non-EU imports will be a sensible size for the current amount of non-EU imports/exports. Overnight it will have to deal with ALL imports/exports. That is going to cause massive delays, and there is no way a "light customs touch" fits with the narrative of controlling our borders.

Pretty much all goods coming in to Dover come from EU countries, but some of them are under EU rules and some (eg. transshipments through Amsterdam) are not. All these shipments have paperwork. Customs & Excise check the paperwork of some of them - about 1% of EU and about 3% of non-EU.

If they can't cope with the throughput, they will check less until they can get more staff in and infrastructure built, and more efficient systems.

If you have spent the last few years thinking that "control our borders" means we can't have a light touch customs, then you've had the wrong end of the stick for a long time. "Control our borders" never did mean physically stopping people from coming in; it was about having the means to remove them. And it doesn't mean physically checking all goods, or even the paperwork of all goods, as they arrive.

[RingoMcCartney]

Last week we were told we will run out of drinking water. So start filling up demi jars, water butts, and buckets now! Theres obviously money to be made!

And to pre-empt the next stage of Operation Hysteria, start stockpiling oxygen!

[Imploding Turtle]

Last week we were told we will run out of drinking water. ...

No we weren't.

[Hipper]

People saying the rich will be ok, the poor not so much. Where does that leave the middle people?

So how do I find out if I'm in the rich camp, poor camp or somewhere in between?

The answer is in your first paragraph!