38 points

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:35 pm

Just had a look at the remaining fixtures and predicted the results and came up with 38 points and that was without another single away win,38 points will be plenty,home form will have to improve though

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:40 pm

Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:41 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.

Yea i didnt have us getting a point in the last four games

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:57 pm

Steve1956 wrote:Yea i didnt have us getting a point in the last four games

Another negative thread!

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:34 pm

Sometimes it’s the best time to play one of the big six in the run in. If they have a massive European Final coming up for example you end up playing their reserves.

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:39 pm

I've done the same as Steve1956 and come up with 35 points and us still
staying up.

Given there's one team with 10pts and two with 9 points from 16 games
they are going to have to get a point a game from the remaining 22 games
to reach 31/32 points which is no mean feat.

So I think 38 would be more than comfortable and 35 should be enough.
Seven more wins and a couple of draws should do it.

Hope so, really do.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:08 pm

West Brom stayed up with 34 points in 2005,and Bradford with 36 points survived in 2000,this looks like being a season when a relatively low number will ensure Premier League status,if you offered any of the bottom 7 38 points they would bite your hands off.

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:38 pm

Brown trouser job

redwasp · Post by **redwasp** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:26 pm

Is it going to be three from the bottom seven or will others drop into the mix ?. If you include Wolves they are only a point behind Watford and two below Brighton and West Ham.

kaptin1 · Post by **kaptin1** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:49 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.

Last season we got 7 points from those four fixtures. A repeat of that would be amazing!

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:57 pm

redwasp wrote:Is it going to be three from the bottom seven or will others drop into the mix ?. If you include Wolves they are only a point behind Watford and two below Brighton and West Ham.

I really cannot see Wolves being down there. Don't forget they have their 50-100 million January spend, to come.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:57 pm

38 points looks a long way away,but I have confidence this January transfer window we will get the players required to keep us safe.

Ooogeorgeorgeoghani · Post by **Ooogeorgeorgeoghani** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:59 pm

To get 38 we will have to win all our home games against the bottom clubs that's too much pressure , we have to pick up some wins on the road , I went through and did it honestly and we got 24 points!

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:14 pm

redwasp wrote:Is it going to be three from the bottom seven or will others drop into the mix ?. If you include Wolves they are only a point behind Watford and two below Brighton and West Ham.

Can't see anyone from West Ham upwards being sucked into a relegation scrap,Brighton didn't impress yesterday and their away form is a problem for them,Watford must be thankful they started like a house on fire,1 point from 15 and three defeats on the spin,it's not impossible either or both could be looking over their shoulders in the new year.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:18 pm

Steve1956 wrote:38 points looks a long way away,but I have confidence this January transfer window we will get the players required to keep us safe.

I think it's mandatory that we do something decent in the Jan window, if we're to stay up.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:36 pm

FactualFrank wrote:I think it's mandatory that we do something decent in the Jan window, if we're to stay up.

100% agree Frank if we have a window like the last two,we will be lucky if we get 28 points

taio · Post by **taio** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:40 pm

If we are in a relegation battle during the next transfer window I think we will find it tremendously difficult to sign players who would improve our starting 11. If that's the case I believe we will be largely or entirely relying on what we already have to steer us clear of relegation.

Carport · Post by **Carport** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:14 pm

We’re odds on favourites at 1/2 alongside Huddersfield to be relegated.

Woodleyclaret · Post by **Woodleyclaret** » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:16 pm

12 wins and our 12 points and we are sorted

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:55 am

Think we'll end up on around 34 points. I reckon home wins against WHU, Ful, CP, Wol and Car plus a few draws (home and away) and that will be that.

Who knows how many points needed to avoid the drop although I do think, like a few others, that we won't need 38 points for survival this time round.

Claretforever · Post by **Claretforever** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:39 am

It’s not about how many points the team in 17th achieved, it’s about getting 1 more than the team in 18th.

Over the past 10 seasons the average points gained by the team in 18th place is 34.6 (Blackpool with a high of 39, Burnley with a low of 30), so 35 when rounded up. We would therefore need 36 points, another 24 from the remaining 22 games.

It seems that when the title is won by a side with less than 80 points (2016 & 2011) then the points in that 18th position are higher. When the title is won by a team in the high 80’s, or a number of clubs are into the 80+ point area then the lower the points in 18th. I can’t see Man City or Liverpool getting less than 80 points, and maybe even Chelsea too, so it could be a record low year?

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:19 pm

Fair enough Claretforever.

Looks like 34 points could well be enough this year. Fingers crossed we get at least that if not substantially more......

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:38 pm

Looking at the extrapolated points for the season here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; it has 25 points being safe.

Realistically that isn't going to be the case. If you look at the Week 15 tabs for 16/17 and 17/18 the extrapolated number of points for safety at this point was a fair bit lower than it ended up (particularly last year).

Herts Clarets · Post by **Herts Clarets** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:06 pm

Steve1956 wrote:38 points looks a long way away,but I have confidence this January transfer window we will get the players required to keep us safe.

Given our record in almost every previous transfer window, I wish I could share your confidence. I fully expect to be chasing a very limited choice of player, make a derisory offer that is rejected out of hand. This will drag on until the end of the transfer window, where we will panic and sign a player from a lower league. That player will then be seen in the first team about as many times as Lord Lucan and Loch Ness Monster are spotted. There will be statements about the cost of players, being unable to compete and ultimately we reach the point where the "happy with the group we have" mantra will be once again released. Like it did a few years ago when we failed to sign cover for Dean Marney, ended up with Jones and Arfield in the centre and ultimately departed the Premier League again.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:21 pm

25 points might be a tad optimistic for staying up, but 34 will definitely do it.

jojomk1 · Post by **jojomk1** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:26 pm

One point from home games against Huddersfield and Newcastle could be the difference
We need to strengthen central midfield and a decent goalscorer this Jan
Said before start of season, bottom 6 but staying up, everything crossed at mo

vinrogue · Post by **vinrogue** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:54 pm

Huddersfield, Watford, Brighton, Newcastle, Bournemouth all away maybe 5 or 7 points? Oh what the heck one game at a time UTC

THEWELLERNUT70 · Post by **THEWELLERNUT70** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:56 pm

I look at it as requiring 8 more wins as no team has been relegated from the Premier League having secured 11 wins

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:34 pm

taio wrote:If we are in a relegation battle during the next transfer window I think we will find it tremendously difficult to sign players who would improve our starting 11. If that's the case I believe we will be largely or entirely relying on what we already have to steer us clear of relegation.

You are right but you also have to factor in that the board, if they think relegation is a real possibility, unlike most other boards, would save the money for Championship level income rather than try to improve chances of survival. I've said all season that come January we won't spend a thing of note if relegation looks 'on'.

I might be a little cynical here but our board are not noted for their risk taking.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:44 pm

taio wrote:If we are in a relegation battle during the next transfer window I think we will find it tremendously difficult to sign players who would improve our starting 11. If that's the case I believe we will be largely or entirely relying on what we already have to steer us clear of relegation.

That probably applies to most teams in the bottom half, unless they pay silly wages.

taio · Post by **taio** » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:41 pm

Spijed wrote:That probably applies to most teams in the bottom half, unless they pay silly wages.

I'm not sure it would apply to those say 11th or 12th. And in any case we know others will pay silly wages.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:45 am

Herts Clarets wrote:Given our record in almost every previous transfer window, I wish I could share your confidence. I fully expect to be chasing a very limited choice of player, make a derisory offer that is rejected out of hand. This will drag on until the end of the transfer window, where we will panic and sign a player from a lower league. That player will then be seen in the first team about as many times as Lord Lucan and Loch Ness Monster are spotted. There will be statements about the cost of players, being unable to compete and ultimately we reach the point where the "happy with the group we have" mantra will be once again released. Like it did a few years ago when we failed to sign cover for Dean Marney, ended up with Jones and Arfield in the centre and ultimately departed the Premier League again.

Keep the faith HC,everything will be hunky dory

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:29 am

Herts Clarets wrote:Given our record in almost every previous transfer window, I wish I could share your confidence. I fully expect to be chasing a very limited choice of player, make a derisory offer that is rejected out of hand. This will drag on until the end of the transfer window, where we will panic and sign a player from a lower league. That player will then be seen in the first team about as many times as Lord Lucan and Loch Ness Monster are spotted. There will be statements about the cost of players, being unable to compete and ultimately we reach the point where the "happy with the group we have" mantra will be once again released. Like it did a few years ago when we failed to sign cover for Dean Marney, ended up with Jones and Arfield in the centre and ultimately departed the Premier League again.

The difference is this time we do have a few more options with Hendrick, Westwood, Defour & Cork. Plus JBG, Brady & Lennon.

When we had Jones and Arfield we had nothing else to offer.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:55 am

20 to go...just about double,although I think 34 will keep us up now

JTClaret · Post by **JTClaret** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:05 am

Has nobody ever noticed how every season people say it will be the lowest ever points total to stay up... and every year it's roughly the same

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:19 am

Based on the last ten years average 37 will almost certainly keep you up.

As for ever needing 40 points you might as well say you need 43 points as it's never required.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:04 am

Since the Prem reduced to 20 teams 1995/6; the third bottom team points (which is all you have to beat to stay up) have been:
38,40,40,36,33,34,36,42,33,33,34,38,36,34,30,39,36,36,33,35,37,34,33 (Poor old WHU in 2002/3 getting done on 42

)

The average of the first five there is 37.4, last five 34.4
average of first ten is 36.5, last ten is 34.7
Some decent evidence that the number has fallen over that full period. (and that 36 gives you a very good chance of survival latterly).

I think one key thing is how many "big teams" there are at the top which are gobbling up the points. Nowadays we have Chelsea, Arsenal (both as per) + Man City with their middle-eastern money + Liverpool now back strong + Spurs under Poch and Man U are there or thereabouts and looking better post-Mou. If you have 6 teams accumulating big point totals there's just less to go round for the other 14 -especially the bottom few.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:05 am

happyclaret17 wrote:Lets hope we get the points in the bag prior to those last 4 games.
chelsea away
city home
everton away
arsenal home
tough trot that.

1 or more of those teams could have had their final position cemented by then, with a cup final to prepare for.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:44 am

Win the 6 pointer's and it makes a huge difference,if we beat Fulham on the 13th,they effectively have to win 3 games to overtake us,tough ask given the've only won 3 all season.

38 points should be enough to beat the drop,can't see 3 of the current bottom six,reaching that mark.

Ooogeorgeorgeoghani · Post by **Ooogeorgeorgeoghani** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:58 pm

tiger76 wrote:Win the 6 pointer's and it makes a huge difference,if we beat Fulham on the 13th,they effectively have to win 3 games to overtake us,tough ask given the've only won 3 all season.

38 points should be enough to beat the drop,can't see 3 of the current bottom six,reaching that mark.

And 1 of those was against us !

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:04 pm

33 would have been enough last season with our current goal difference. Can't see it being much (if any) more required this season tbh.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:22 pm

This is looking a long way off,maddening we threw three away yesterday against 10 men.

THEWELLERNUT70 · Post by **THEWELLERNUT70** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:28 am

We will be lucky to get 35 points

SGr · Post by **SGr** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:37 am

1 point a game average is pretty much always enough. 38 makes sense but we won’t need that. What we need is one more than what Cardiff get.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:32 pm

the Cardiff game is getting bigger and bigger every week and it could definitely end up defining if we go up or down, certainly for Cardiff they will have it down as a must win, while for me at the moment is a must not lose.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:41 pm

On current form it's looking like 38 points might be required. However, with the tough run-in for both us and Cardiff my gut feeling is that 36 (and goal difference) would be enough (and given the fixtures, if one team wins the Burnley v Cardiff match it will probably be them).

claretspice · Post by **claretspice** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:43 pm

I said a few weeks ago that I didn't expect the team finishing 17th to need more than 35 points, and I also said that one team would have a very bad run to the end of the season and we just needed to avoid being that team.

I still think that will end up being about right. We probably need one win and 2 or 3 draws from our 7 games to keep our head above water, provided we don't lose to Cardiff. But that game is now huge and defeat in that game would leave us with a lot to do.

Wokingclaret · Post by **Wokingclaret** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:49 pm

claretspice wrote:I said a few weeks ago that I didn't expect the team finishing 17th to need more than 35 points, and I also said that one team would have a very bad run to the end of the season and we just needed to avoid being that team.

I still think that will end up being about right. We probably need one win and 2 or 3 draws from our 7 games to keep our head above water, provided we don't lose to Cardiff. But that game is now huge and defeat in that game would leave us with a lot to do.

Recalculate, after Cardiff beat Chelsea at home. A big possibility if Chelsea don't turn up like yesterday at Everton

claretspice · Post by **claretspice** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:04 pm

Wokingclaret wrote:Recalculate, after Cardiff beat Chelsea at home. A big possibility if Chelsea don't turn up like yesterday at Everton

Everything is possible. The guideline is that 35 points is almost invariably enough though, and teams like Cardiff traditionally tend to fizzle out a bit towards the end of the season. But there are always exceptional seasons, and its certainly a shame that we've not been able to put a bit more daylight between us and them to give them less scope for encouragement.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:11 pm

A couple of unexpected wins for Cardiff and we're most likely down. Similarly, if we somehow excel ourselves in a few games, we'll save our skins.

There's always a couple of freak results get thrown up.
Let's hope they go our way.