FAO Aggi, we were having a sensible debate on this mornings poll when the thread got deleted just I was about to post a reply (incredibly annoying after I’ve spent time writing this while waiting for a flight) so this is my reply below:aggi wrote:I have a very different take away having read through that (and it's something that you entirely seem to have skipped, I assume you've ignored it as part of "respecting the result") and that's that there does seem to be an appetite for a second referendum (more than I expected to be honest).
Leaving with no deal isn't in the top three of preferred steps and going back for more talks is third.
I found the If there were to be a second referendum of one kind or another, do people feel they are any better informed about the choice at hand than they were in June 2016? an interesting one. You say it's a net 13% (plus 31%, minus 18%) but I'm not sure about the question. Unless people have forgotten everything they previously knew then they are at least as informed as they were in 2016 but, I would guess, are aware that the situation is more complex so know less in the big scheme of things (which would in reality mean they were more informed). It's a strange situation and I'm not sure what conclusion to draw, ~ a third of voters being more informed feels quite substantial.
There's still a lot of "have your cake and eat it" in your suggestion. (I'm not sure sure whether you've deliberately misquoted the second point or just missed the issue but it's actually Continue to trade freely with EU countries with no tariffs or customs checks.) Obviously that rules out a Canada style agreement as there are still customs checks. Norway is ruled out as it involves paying money to the EU.
As I said at the start, my objective interpretation is very different to yours.
I never read the report, I read the data tables. They have chosen to word the options excluding negotiating a new deal by March 31st, so anybody wanting a new negotiation would have to have agreed to extend A50 (which would out a lot of people off). Actually I think negotiating minor changes is easily possible in that time.
Despite that, there are 2 different referendum options with Remain on the ballot yet only 18% of people pick one of these as their first choice and 26% as second choice (these will be often the same people, ranking ‘1’ and ‘2’ which is why I don’t interpret it as a mandate, not least because some of these people will also be hard Leavers who want to vote for no deal).
Whereas over 50% have it as one of their last two choices (fifth and sixth).
The options in this question with a highest proportion of support are firstly delaying Brexit to get a new deal (50% have it as their top two picks) and leaving with no deal (38% have it as one of their top two picks).
So that’s very unequivocal. A 2nd Ref is no higher ranked than no deal (and doesn’t deliver the result which is a further reason not to do it) but a new deal (my choice) is far higher than either.
P.s. yes, the wording over customs checks, I think a FTA with minimal checking should be possible. Goods are checked now of course, even within the EU. I’m not too fussed over how the pollsters have chosen to word the question.