This morning’s polling

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CrosspoolClarets
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This morning’s polling

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:55 pm

aggi wrote:I have a very different take away having read through that (and it's something that you entirely seem to have skipped, I assume you've ignored it as part of "respecting the result") and that's that there does seem to be an appetite for a second referendum (more than I expected to be honest).

Leaving with no deal isn't in the top three of preferred steps and going back for more talks is third.

I found the If there were to be a second referendum of one kind or another, do people feel they are any better informed about the choice at hand than they were in June 2016? an interesting one. You say it's a net 13% (plus 31%, minus 18%) but I'm not sure about the question. Unless people have forgotten everything they previously knew then they are at least as informed as they were in 2016 but, I would guess, are aware that the situation is more complex so know less in the big scheme of things (which would in reality mean they were more informed). It's a strange situation and I'm not sure what conclusion to draw, ~ a third of voters being more informed feels quite substantial.

There's still a lot of "have your cake and eat it" in your suggestion. (I'm not sure sure whether you've deliberately misquoted the second point or just missed the issue but it's actually Continue to trade freely with EU countries with no tariffs or customs checks.) Obviously that rules out a Canada style agreement as there are still customs checks. Norway is ruled out as it involves paying money to the EU.

As I said at the start, my objective interpretation is very different to yours.
FAO Aggi, we were having a sensible debate on this mornings poll when the thread got deleted just I was about to post a reply (incredibly annoying after I’ve spent time writing this while waiting for a flight) so this is my reply below:

I never read the report, I read the data tables. They have chosen to word the options excluding negotiating a new deal by March 31st, so anybody wanting a new negotiation would have to have agreed to extend A50 (which would out a lot of people off). Actually I think negotiating minor changes is easily possible in that time.

Despite that, there are 2 different referendum options with Remain on the ballot yet only 18% of people pick one of these as their first choice and 26% as second choice (these will be often the same people, ranking ‘1’ and ‘2’ which is why I don’t interpret it as a mandate, not least because some of these people will also be hard Leavers who want to vote for no deal).

Whereas over 50% have it as one of their last two choices (fifth and sixth).

The options in this question with a highest proportion of support are firstly delaying Brexit to get a new deal (50% have it as their top two picks) and leaving with no deal (38% have it as one of their top two picks).

So that’s very unequivocal. A 2nd Ref is no higher ranked than no deal (and doesn’t deliver the result which is a further reason not to do it) but a new deal (my choice) is far higher than either.

P.s. yes, the wording over customs checks, I think a FTA with minimal checking should be possible. Goods are checked now of course, even within the EU. I’m not too fussed over how the pollsters have chosen to word the question.

Caballo
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Caballo » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:02 pm

That's a bit frustrating, I thought there were significant amounts of common ground being found by people who had hitherto been firmly on opposing sides of the divide. There were of course the usual crowd on the margins slinging sh1t around, but that's true of life not just message boards.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by summitclaret » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:00 pm

Why are brexit threads being deleted?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:06 pm

summitclaret wrote:Why are brexit threads being deleted?
The discussion has been cancelled because the government decided that it might lose the meaningful debate.

aggi
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by aggi » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:20 pm

Cheers for the response. No idea why so many threads are deleted but it makes a coherent discussion awkward.

Ah, I've looked at the data tables now but they're incomplete. What you're referring to is the question "what is most likely to happen" which was this:

Image

The one I was referring to was "what do you want to happen"

Image

Unfortunately the source data for the latter is missing from the data tables so it's not possible to see a breakdown of how that came about. It does seem concerning that there's such a gap between what do you think will happen and what do you want to happen.

In terms of Customs checks, unless there is regulatory alignment (which is anathema to many) there will still be substantial checks on a Canada style agreement.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:23 pm

summitclaret wrote:Why are brexit threads being deleted?
Ringo said IT was a halfwit retard.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by houseboy » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:56 pm

Perhaps they are being deleted because most people are sick of them. Everything seems so entrenched now and, as they say, battle lines have been drawn. I think that no-one is really changing their mind now, everybody is sick of nothing else in the news. No matter which way anyone voted and how heated it has all become to say it has been handled badly would be the understatement of the millenium. I personally now think that no deal is better than having a deal that keeps us tied in any way to that uncontrolable monster. But that's just my view and I don't really care any more what others think, whatever will be will be.

To all those on here I've argued with and to all those that have agreed with me I say I am done with it now, let's see what happens and stop arguing over it.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by PaintYorkClaretnBlue » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:04 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Ringo said IT was a halfwit retard.
It’s not as though IT enjoys to throw insults about it is?? :D

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:05 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Ringo said IT was a halfwit retard.
:lol: he did?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:06 pm

PaintYorkClaretnBlue wrote:It’s not as though IT enjoys to throw insults about it is?? :D
I return some of what i get, but i'm the only one called out over it. I've kinda got used to it, but i never really cared about receiving insults anyway.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:07 pm

houseboy wrote:Perhaps they are being deleted because most people are sick of them.

...

That would be a dumb as **** reason to delete a thread.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by summitclaret » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:32 pm

Well without Merkel's support thats that. She had to try.

There is no way we can go into the trapstop. They would keep us in at least until the next GE. They will drag their feet in the trade discussions so that we have to enter the trapshop. They will then take us to rhe cleaners on the trade deal.

It's totally unreasonable that if we sign up we cannot leave the EU if we want to. If the country was a person the ECHR would surely rule in our favour.

Next steps. Well its no deal or no brexit now. A cliff edge is not on and we would have to find a creative way around that.

May is days away from retirement.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:48 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Ringo said IT was a halfwit retard.
The boards irony detector is working well then.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by PaintYorkClaretnBlue » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:01 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:I return some of what i get, but i'm the only one called out over it. I've kinda got used to it, but i never really cared about receiving insults anyway.
To be fair I think that you dish out a lot more than you receive!! That being said, it’s a daft reason to delete a thread!!

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:07 pm

PaintYorkClaretnBlue wrote:To be fair I think that you dish out a lot more than you receive!! That being said, it’s a daft reason to delete a thread!!

Lol. You've got no idea.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RocketLawnChair » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:12 pm

I actually think IT,Lancaster Claret, Ringo, dsr, Greenmile, Crosspool and others are good value in fact great value they’re knowledgeable staunch supporters of their opinions I have learnt from all of them and most of the mud slinging is good craic and they can all take it.

I’ve spent a bit of time on these threads myself but the fact they are now getting deleted without EXPLANATION is disappointing and makes me feel I am now wasting my time on UTC. A site like UTC needs the amount of clicks these threads generate. Without these your advertises could soon look for more exposure elsewhere. So this is the Rocket signing out for the forseeable and good luck to you all no matter what side of the divide you are on and UP THE CLARETS.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by evensteadiereddie » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:41 pm

:lol:

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:06 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:That would be a dumb as **** reason to delete a thread.
Probably sick of multiple threads basically about the same topic.

Bit like after we lose a game, some people feel the need to start a new thread about something that's already being discussed :roll:

It does get tedious after a while.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by TheFamilyCat » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:07 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Ringo said IT was a halfwit retard.
I think he actually called him a "hafwut retord"
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by ecc » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:39 pm

Brexit makes Stalingrad look like a five-minute affair.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:00 pm

This would be funny

Image

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Caballo » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:11 pm

I'd suggest laughable, rather than funny.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:29 pm

The ex Canadian PM did this. Pretty desperate.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:33 pm

AndrewJB wrote:The ex Canadian PM did this. Pretty desperate.
Yeah, Harper, 10 years ago. He was in office until 2015 in the end.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%8 ... ry_dispute" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:10 pm

Whovever is deleting the threads, can you delete Brexit please!

Cheers!

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:32 am

aggi wrote:Cheers for the response. No idea why so many threads are deleted but it makes a coherent discussion awkward.

Ah, I've looked at the data tables now but they're incomplete. What you're referring to is the question "what is most likely to happen" which was this:

Image

The one I was referring to was "what do you want to happen"

Image

Unfortunately the source data for the latter is missing from the data tables so it's not possible to see a breakdown of how that came about. It does seem concerning that there's such a gap between what do you think will happen and what do you want to happen.

In terms of Customs checks, unless there is regulatory alignment (which is anathema to many) there will still be substantial checks on a Canada style agreement.

Thanks for posting these, interesting reading. The latest poll I read talked about "diehard leavers", "devasted pessimists", and "accepting pragmatists". There is a major push on the posh liberal side of the left for a second referendum, but even if it has majority support among the public, the majority is not that big. I feel as though it could go back to the people and the answer could still be leave at this point. Frankly I think the discontent in this country extends beyond the Brexit vote and we should take our lead from over the channel: vive les gilet jaunes!

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Buxtonclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:44 am

No Confidence vote has been triggered.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:47 am

Buxtonclaret wrote:No Confidence vote has been triggered.
Think Corbyn has missed a trick here. He should have proposed a no confidence vote in the HoC. Now one has been triggered in the Tory party it may be less likely we get a general election.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:48 am

Yup

Be interesting to see just how many MPs believe that the only reason we've not got sunlit uplands and the easiest deal in the world ever is May.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:48 am

Of course Corbyn has missed a trick here. He always does.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:51 am

martin_p wrote:Think Corbyn has missed a trick here. He should have proposed a no confidence vote in the HoC. Now one has been triggered in the Tory party it may be less likely we get a general election.
I think politically and practically it'd have been a bad idea for Corbyn to propose it. Politically it'd have given the Tories a way to blame it all on him if his no confidence motion passed. And practically he's not exactly more likely to do a better job coming into it as PM at this late stage so what real good would it do?

Better to let the Tories self-cannibalise. They completely own Brexit.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by JohnMcGreal » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:51 am

People should never, ever forget what the conservative party has inflicted on the country in these last few years. Quite frankly the most disgraceful government of modern times.

This ought to be the end of them, but if it isn't, the public should ensure they don't get near power for a generation after this.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:53 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Of course Corbyn has missed a trick here. He always does.
He could of course be playing the (slightly) longer game, figuring that May can see off a leadership challenge which could mean ERG types are more likely to support ‘no confidence’ in the government if he proposes a no confidence motion. It’d be a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas, but if the last two and a half years are anything to go by it seems that turkeys don’t always recognise Christmas is coming anyway!
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:55 am

Further to my post, if May wins her no confidence vote then Corbyn still has the ability to call for a HoC no confidence vote. Had Corbyn called one first and May had won then it would strengthen her position in her party.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:57 am

He will only get in if he can convince the left of the Conservative Party that he's a better option than those on the right.

There is an argument that this plays into his hands, but history does suggest that the Conservatives will back whoever wins this, and that means his chance has gone to the next election.

If he's waiting for then, then fine, but hoping to win in the ashes of a Brexit induced recession isn't a good look for a Labour leader.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:59 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:He will only get in if he can convince the left of the Conservative Party that he's a better option than those on the right.

There is an argument that this plays into his hands, but history does suggest that the Conservatives will back whoever wins this, and that means his chance has gone to the next election.

If he's waiting for then, then fine, but hoping to win in the ashes of a Brexit induced recession isn't a good look for a Labour leader.
In theory he doesn’t have to convince a single Tory if the opposition parties vote as a single block (although that seems unlikely).

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Buxtonclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:04 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Yup

Be interesting to see just how many MPs believe that the only reason we've not got sunlit uplands and the easiest deal in the world ever is May.
She's been pretty inept from the outset. And, it is her can to carry?
But wouldn't be surprised if she managed to cling on, if enough MPs decide there's enough chaos going on, internally and nationally, without the added distraction of picking someone else.
Though think Boris wouldn't agree.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:05 am

The DUP won't vote for Corbyn though.

They would either get the Corbyn that everybody fears he is (the 1970s version) or the one Labour supporters say he is (the one who will do what he's told by the membership)

Both are not good for the DUP under any circumstances.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:10 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:The DUP won't vote for Corbyn though.

They would either get the Corbyn that everybody fears he is (the 1970s version) or the one Labour supporters say he is (the one who will do what he's told by the membership)

Both are not good for the DUP under any circumstances.
Yes, that’s the bit I think is unlikely. Corbyn aside, whatever the result of a general election it is unlikely to yield the numbers that gives the DUP the influence they have now. So they won’t want a general election full stop.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:13 am

Labour/Corbyn been given way too much credit for wanting to be in power.

More than happy sat in opposition, doing very little apart from saying how much better they would do.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Grumps » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:16 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:People should never, ever forget what the conservative party has inflicted on the country in these last few years. Quite frankly the most disgraceful government of modern times.

This ought to be the end of them, but if it isn't, the public should ensure they don't get near power for a generation after this.
I take it you've forgotten the years under Blair?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:18 am

She's been pretty inept from the outset.
No arguments here about that. But she's trying to fulfill the fantasy that was promised in 2016.

If there is a new leader, then the circumstances won't have changed in the slightest*

*though if this board is any judge, the same beliefs that were the norm in 2016 are still the norm in 2018, despite all the evidence to the contrary. Essentially when it comes to Brexit, the government would become a theocracy, rather than a democracy sadly.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:19 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:People should never, ever forget what the conservative party has inflicted on the country in these last few years. Quite frankly the most disgraceful government of modern times.

This ought to be the end of them, but if it isn't, the public should ensure they don't get near power for a generation after this.

People should also never forget that despite all this they were still more appealing than Labour
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by bfcjg » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:24 am

Whoever becomes PM it's a poison political chalice nobody will ever get a Brexit deal that appeals to a majority.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:27 am

bfcjg wrote:Whoever becomes PM it's a poison political chalice nobody will ever get a Brexit deal that appeals to a majority.
Nope. In fact the outcome that would satisfy the largest number of people is remaining (given that despite ‘everyone knowing what Leave meant’ there still isn’t a single view on what it is).
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:29 am

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:People should also never forget that despite all this they were still more appealing than Labour

Barely. She called an election because she thought she'd increase her majority and then ended up losing it altogether. How did she manage to lose seats to Corbyn if Corbyn is such a bad leader?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by The Enclosure » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:45 am

The thought of Corbyn negotiating in Europe brings me out in a cold sweat.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by summitclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:45 am

Did anyone else see the sky poll yesterday which even now had may at 44% and corbyn 22% as the best person to lead on brexit. Labour should be very worried about that the other outcomes of that poll.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by summitclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:48 am

She going to make a statement soon. Do yourself a favour and resign. She won't.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:59 am

More hilarity from Monty Python's Flying Brexit :)
Oh god please can we have another referendum?
I'm going to vote Leave, it's the best way to destroy the Tory party.

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