This morning’s polling
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Re: This morning’s polling
If May loses the vote tonight, she'll call for a second vote claiming the Tory MPs weren't informed enough at the 1st vote.....
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Re: This morning’s polling
Bookies have her as winning......
Re: This morning’s polling
No, I understand, as does Turtle, who used the word ‘most’, but it seems you don’t understand why that means Lancaster has never claimed he’s never wrong.RingoMcCartney wrote:And like him you're unwilling to accept the word "most" wasn't mine.
"I do have the unfortunate habit of been right most of the time!"......
Pure arrogance.
Look, on such a momentous day like today I'm not going to go down a conversation cul de sac. There's much more interesting things going on.
May. Will she still be PM tomorrow Martin? Stick your neck out.....
Re: This morning’s polling
But this is already the second vote, the first was in 2016.RingoMcCartney wrote:If May loses the vote tonight, she'll call for a second vote claiming the Tory MPs weren't informed enough at the 1st vote.....
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Re: This morning’s polling
If May loses the vote tonight,there will be a second vote but she won't be able to stand,RingoMcCartney wrote:If May loses the vote tonight, she'll call for a second vote claiming the Tory MPs weren't informed enough at the 1st vote.....
With friends like this who needs enemies.
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/statu ... 9711046661
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Re: This morning’s polling
These 2nd votes after realising you've made a mistake might catch on.
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Re: This morning’s polling
You’re mentally unhinged, Wrongo.RingoMcCartney wrote:The idea that you blocked me cos I made "assumptions about my life and where I lived. When you started to take an interest in where I might live I realised that you needed help." Is laughable!
It's common knowledge where you live.
An ivory tower.
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Re: This morning’s polling
Tonight's is the 1st where Teresa May is PM. So rerun because tory MPs would be better informed would be the 2nd.martin_p wrote:But this is already the second vote, the first was in 2016.
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: This morning’s polling
Been called worse.Lord Beamish wrote:You’re mentally unhinged, Wrongo.
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Re: This morning’s polling
What concerns me is. If she wins she cannot be challenged again for one full year. She'll be in place and untouchable to secure her brexit in name only.tiger76 wrote:If May loses the vote tonight,there will be a second vote but she won't be able to stand,
With friends like this who needs enemies.
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/statu ... 9711046661
The Tories will be annihilated at the subsequent general election. And deservedly so.
Ultimately, the big , long term loser in all this ( that'll open the food gates for some posters, so don't think I didn't see it coming) will be democracy itself......
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Re: This morning’s polling
You may well have. That isn’t anything to be pleased about, mind. You continue to make such a spectacle of yourself on here, that it’s verging on masochistic.RingoMcCartney wrote:Been called worse.
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Re: This morning’s polling
OK, you've made your point. I'll take it on board.Lord Beamish wrote:You may well have. That isn’t anything to be pleased about, mind. You continue to make such a spectacle of yourself on here, that it’s verging on masochistic.
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Re: This morning’s polling
159 (one more than she needs) saying they back her.
is that enough for her to carry on
Certainly looks that way from my ivory tower
is that enough for her to carry on
Certainly looks that way from my ivory tower
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Re: This morning’s polling
Explain it please to a political ignoramus (I mean me, before you all start on each other)
What happens if she loses? Is she out?
What happens if she loses? Is she out?
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Re: This morning’s polling
Yes.duncandisorderly wrote:Explain it please to a political ignoramus (I mean me, before you all start on each other)
What happens if she loses? Is she out?
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Re: This morning’s polling
Yes, then there is a leadership election, and then we are back to square one with about 9 weeks till we leave.
If she loses, its an almost absolute guarantee that there is an article 50 revocation or suspension. But we can only do one unilaterally. Have a guess which one that is?
If she loses, its an almost absolute guarantee that there is an article 50 revocation or suspension. But we can only do one unilaterally. Have a guess which one that is?
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Re: This morning’s polling
Lancasterclaret wrote:Yes, then there is a leadership election, and then we are back to square one with about 9 weeks till we leave.
If she loses, its an almost absolute guarantee that there is an article 50 revocation or suspension. But we can only do one unilaterally. Have a guess which one that is?
The Leadership election is internal, isn't it? So then we end up with a PM we didn't vote for?
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Re: This morning’s polling
Yeah, which is why I said we'd be back to square one because the new leader would be brexit ++++
And its an absolute banger of a point about us ending up with a PM we didn't vote for btw.
And its an absolute banger of a point about us ending up with a PM we didn't vote for btw.
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Re: This morning’s polling
Bob on.duncandisorderly wrote:The Leadership election is internal, isn't it? So then we end up with a PM we didn't vote for?
It's how Gordon Brown became PM.
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Re: This morning’s polling
My instinct is that she'll survive. The headbangers want her out, for obvious reasons. I'm less convinced that the moderates will though for three reasons:
1 - Some of them will have their eye on the top job (or their preferred candidate) and none of them will want that to be now.
2 - They'll know that ousting her increases the chances of a headbanger getting the job and driving us towards 'No Deal' which is unpalatable to most.
3 - They'll know that putting a headbanger in charge will almost certainly lead to the collapse of government (pre or post Brexit) and a general election which they'd definitely lose.
I suspect May would step down after Brexit is directionally resolved anyway - there'll be plenty who are happy to see her go at that point who'd rather keep her in power for now.
Of course, logic plays no part in things these days so anything could happen... If she stays though it's a hammer blow for the hard Brexit supporters.
1 - Some of them will have their eye on the top job (or their preferred candidate) and none of them will want that to be now.
2 - They'll know that ousting her increases the chances of a headbanger getting the job and driving us towards 'No Deal' which is unpalatable to most.
3 - They'll know that putting a headbanger in charge will almost certainly lead to the collapse of government (pre or post Brexit) and a general election which they'd definitely lose.
I suspect May would step down after Brexit is directionally resolved anyway - there'll be plenty who are happy to see her go at that point who'd rather keep her in power for now.
Of course, logic plays no part in things these days so anything could happen... If she stays though it's a hammer blow for the hard Brexit supporters.
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Re: This morning’s polling
two huge news stories just broke
- May has pretty much admitted she won't be leading the Conservative Party in the next election
- EU and Japan agree huge trade deal
- May has pretty much admitted she won't be leading the Conservative Party in the next election
- EU and Japan agree huge trade deal
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Re: This morning’s polling
And Theresa May.RingoMcCartney wrote:Bob on.
It's how Gordon Brown became PM.
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Re: This morning’s polling
That's a silly system. The death or resignation of the current PM should necessitate a General Election, surely?
Re: This morning’s polling
But we don't vote for a PM, we vote for a local MP.duncandisorderly wrote:That's a silly system. The death or resignation of the current PM should necessitate a General Election, surely?
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Re: This morning’s polling
I think she will survive the vote of no confidence. The issue then, as pointed out above is that she has 12 months where she will be unchallenged.
The biggest issue at the moment in Government is the lack of credible opposition. Even with the absolute disaster the Tories have served up I just cannot see Jeremy Corbyn gaining enough votes to see them out of power. The thought of him, Abbot and McDonnel leading the country is truly terrifying.
For the first time in my memory as a voter there is actually nobody worth voting for.
The biggest issue at the moment in Government is the lack of credible opposition. Even with the absolute disaster the Tories have served up I just cannot see Jeremy Corbyn gaining enough votes to see them out of power. The thought of him, Abbot and McDonnel leading the country is truly terrifying.
For the first time in my memory as a voter there is actually nobody worth voting for.
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Re: This morning’s polling
So you are suggesting that the local MP's seats aren't influenced by who the PM is/will be......interesting theory.martin_p wrote:But we don't vote for a PM, we vote for a local MP.
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Re: This morning’s polling
Correct.Bacchus wrote:And Theresa May.
Re: This morning’s polling
i'm not suggesting it doesn't, no. Juat pointing out that we all elect local MPs and those MPs represent us in Parliament and effectively choose a PM. So if one PM leaves then the MPs that represent us choose another PM. Although of course if your MP isn't a member of the party with a majority then you don't get a say.arise_sir_charge wrote:So you are suggesting that the local MP's seats aren't influenced by who the PM is/will be......interesting theory.
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Re: This morning’s polling
martin_p wrote:I think Turtle maybe questioning your understanding of the word ‘most’.
I've never known someone to have as much confidence as he has with as little to be confidence about as he has.
Re: This morning’s polling
The only position that could command a majority in Parliament right now is remain (enough Tories still support remain, and Labour is still predominantly that way), so I can only see a second referendum coming out of this, as parliament won’t just unilaterally scrap Brexit.
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Re: This morning’s polling
You can't fit a full length mirror in the Turtle Bunker then?Imploding Turtle wrote:I've never known someone to have as much confidence as he has with as little to be confidence about as he has.
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Re: This morning’s polling
Also has a super injunction to cover up his sexual peccadilloes.randomclaret2 wrote:Wasnt David Schneider the unfunny one in Alan Partridge ? He hasnt changed
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Re: This morning’s polling
Interesting enough, so does Dominic Raab
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Re: This morning’s polling
I take it you didn't see this yesterday, or you choose to ignore it as it doesn't fit your narrative.Lancasterclaret wrote:two huge news stories just broke
- May has pretty much admitted she won't be leading the Conservative Party in the next election
- EU and Japan agree huge trade deal
https://t.co/ZXBk3xTyHm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: This morning’s polling
No I saw it, but as its going to be exactly the same I didn't think it was worth commenting on.
Still didn't get an answer by the way to your argument about Northern Ireland not benefitting from being in the SM and the CU under Mays deals btw, and your trade figures for what NI does with the UK are well out.
Still didn't get an answer by the way to your argument about Northern Ireland not benefitting from being in the SM and the CU under Mays deals btw, and your trade figures for what NI does with the UK are well out.
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Re: This morning’s polling
So Nigel Dodds is lying when he says NI biggest market is Uk ?Lancasterclaret wrote:No I saw it, but as its going to be exactly the same I didn't think it was worth commenting on.
Still didn't get an answer by the way to your argument about Northern Ireland not benefitting from being in the SM and the CU under Mays deals btw, and your trade figures for what NI does with the UK are well out.
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Re: This morning’s polling
No, he's got his figures wrong though I think
Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check
£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world
Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check
£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world
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Re: This morning’s polling
you've just proven my point for me, uk trade is worth 5 times more to NI than EU trade.Lancasterclaret wrote:No, he's got his figures wrong though I think
Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check
£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world
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Re: This morning’s polling
Think you said it was substantially more than that mate to be fair.
No one is doubting that it would be mad to risk trade with your biggest trading partner...........oh hang on
And its just over 2 times as much!
No one is doubting that it would be mad to risk trade with your biggest trading partner...........oh hang on
And its just over 2 times as much!
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Re: This morning’s polling
Tourism
Guinness
Kerrygold
Beef inc McDonald's I think
And many more
Maybe the Irish government need a bit of a shock from the British public.
I've not bought european wine for 10 years by choice and supported our commonwealth.
Guinness
Kerrygold
Beef inc McDonald's I think
And many more
Maybe the Irish government need a bit of a shock from the British public.
I've not bought european wine for 10 years by choice and supported our commonwealth.
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Re: This morning’s polling
Proven wrong again!Lancasterclaret wrote:No, he's got his figures wrong though I think
Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check
£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world
Another poster gonna be blocked now!
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Re: This morning’s polling
Been said a couple of times on the radio this morning that If we have a Clean Genuine Brexit on a WTO rules basis. It means any existing trade rules can stay in place for a maximum of years. That would negate any imagined Irish border problems. We'd have 10 years to sort it. Apparently if the EU wouldn't agree they be in breach of international law.
Re: This morning’s polling
I'm liking Clean Genuine Brexit TM (also known as the Brexit that Ringo wants).
I'd be interested to know more about existing rules staying in place, a quick google throws up nothing. I assume this would only work with full regulatory alignment.
I'd be interested to know more about existing rules staying in place, a quick google throws up nothing. I assume this would only work with full regulatory alignment.
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Re: This morning’s polling
I haven't seen anything like that anywhere.
All I'm getting is the "new" plan from Brexiteers which is being absolutely slaughtered by the experts as unicorny as the last one.
All I'm getting is the "new" plan from Brexiteers which is being absolutely slaughtered by the experts as unicorny as the last one.
Re: This morning’s polling
This is an interesting 'WTO rules Brexit' article. Many of the challenges could be minimised by giving the EU 12 months notice
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: This morning’s polling
On a lot of aspects of this, you make very cogent arguments but this is the bit where I think you show yourself to be a little blinkered Lancaster.Lancasterclaret wrote:Think you said it was substantially more than that mate to be fair.
No one is doubting that it would be mad to risk trade with your biggest trading partner...........oh hang on
And its just over 2 times as much!
This works both ways, as do most of the things Brexit related. Would the EU and its member countries want to risk trade with one of their biggest trading partners? They'd be mad!
Re: This morning’s polling
How does it negate the problem of free movement of EU citizens into the UK across the Irish border?RingoMcCartney wrote:Been said a couple of times on the radio this morning that If we have a Clean Genuine Brexit on a WTO rules basis. It means any existing trade rules can stay in place for a maximum of years. That would negate any imagined Irish border problems. We'd have 10 years to sort it. Apparently if the EU wouldn't agree they be in breach of international law.
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Re: This morning’s polling
But you have to understand the EU and the four freedoms arise-sir-charge.
To us, its not important. To them?
Its everything.
We don't look at it from their point of view, and our red lines make it impossible for them to offer a better deal. It is worth mentioning that when this deal was announced a lot of trade experts were very impressed what we had managed to get despite refusing to budge on free movement.
They regard the EU project as more important than the hit in trade. And they know that it will hit the UK hard. Come on, we all know that now sadly
To us, its not important. To them?
Its everything.
We don't look at it from their point of view, and our red lines make it impossible for them to offer a better deal. It is worth mentioning that when this deal was announced a lot of trade experts were very impressed what we had managed to get despite refusing to budge on free movement.
They regard the EU project as more important than the hit in trade. And they know that it will hit the UK hard. Come on, we all know that now sadly
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Re: This morning’s polling
No way on earth they will walk away from trade of that level for the “EU Project”. Tell the shareholders of all the businesses affected that it’s ok because the EU Project is still on track. They won’t be interested.Lancasterclaret wrote:But you have to understand the EU and the four freedoms arise-sir-charge.
To us, its not important. To them?
Its everything.
We don't look at it from their point of view, and our red lines make it impossible for them to offer a better deal. It is worth mentioning that when this deal was announced a lot of trade experts were very impressed what we had managed to get despite refusing to budge on free movement.
They regard the EU project as more important than the hit in trade. And they know that it will hit the UK hard. Come on, we all know that now sadly
Whether we like it or not, big business tends to call the shots in Government and once the industries in EU countries apply pressure they will have to act.
As I said, it works both ways.
Re: This morning’s polling
Are you saying that they need us more then we need them? Why has nobody pointed this out before?arise_sir_charge wrote:No way on earth they will walk away from trade of that level for the “EU Project”. Tell the shareholders of all the businesses affected that it’s ok because the EU Project is still on track. They won’t be interested.
Whether we like it or not, big business tends to call the shots in Government and once the industries in EU countries apply pressure they will have to act.
As I said, it works both ways.