This morning’s polling

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RingoMcCartney
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:39 am

If May loses the vote tonight, she'll call for a second vote claiming the Tory MPs weren't informed enough at the 1st vote.....

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:40 am

Bookies have her as winning......

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:43 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:And like him you're unwilling to accept the word "most" wasn't mine.

"I do have the unfortunate habit of been right most of the time!"......

Pure arrogance.

Look, on such a momentous day like today I'm not going to go down a conversation cul de sac. There's much more interesting things going on.

May. Will she still be PM tomorrow Martin? Stick your neck out.....
No, I understand, as does Turtle, who used the word ‘most’, but it seems you don’t understand why that means Lancaster has never claimed he’s never wrong.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:44 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:If May loses the vote tonight, she'll call for a second vote claiming the Tory MPs weren't informed enough at the 1st vote.....
But this is already the second vote, the first was in 2016.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by tiger76 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:46 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:If May loses the vote tonight, she'll call for a second vote claiming the Tory MPs weren't informed enough at the 1st vote.....
If May loses the vote tonight,there will be a second vote but she won't be able to stand,

With friends like this who needs enemies.

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/statu ... 9711046661

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:46 am

These 2nd votes after realising you've made a mistake might catch on.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lord Beamish » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:49 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:The idea that you blocked me cos I made "assumptions about my life and where I lived. When you started to take an interest in where I might live I realised that you needed help." Is laughable!

It's common knowledge where you live.

An ivory tower.
You’re mentally unhinged, Wrongo.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:53 am

martin_p wrote:But this is already the second vote, the first was in 2016.
Tonight's is the 1st where Teresa May is PM. So rerun because tory MPs would be better informed would be the 2nd.
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:54 am

Lord Beamish wrote:You’re mentally unhinged, Wrongo.
Been called worse.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:00 pm

tiger76 wrote:If May loses the vote tonight,there will be a second vote but she won't be able to stand,

With friends like this who needs enemies.

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/statu ... 9711046661
What concerns me is. If she wins she cannot be challenged again for one full year. She'll be in place and untouchable to secure her brexit in name only.

The Tories will be annihilated at the subsequent general election. And deservedly so.


Ultimately, the big , long term loser in all this ( that'll open the food gates for some posters, so don't think I didn't see it coming) will be democracy itself......

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lord Beamish » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:05 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Been called worse.
You may well have. That isn’t anything to be pleased about, mind. You continue to make such a spectacle of yourself on here, that it’s verging on masochistic.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:18 pm

Lord Beamish wrote:You may well have. That isn’t anything to be pleased about, mind. You continue to make such a spectacle of yourself on here, that it’s verging on masochistic.
OK, you've made your point. I'll take it on board.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:24 pm

159 (one more than she needs) saying they back her.

is that enough for her to carry on

Certainly looks that way from my ivory tower :-)

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by duncandisorderly » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:36 pm

Explain it please to a political ignoramus (I mean me, before you all start on each other)
What happens if she loses? Is she out?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:39 pm

duncandisorderly wrote:Explain it please to a political ignoramus (I mean me, before you all start on each other)
What happens if she loses? Is she out?
Yes.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:41 pm

Yes, then there is a leadership election, and then we are back to square one with about 9 weeks till we leave.

If she loses, its an almost absolute guarantee that there is an article 50 revocation or suspension. But we can only do one unilaterally. Have a guess which one that is?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by duncandisorderly » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:57 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Yes, then there is a leadership election, and then we are back to square one with about 9 weeks till we leave.

If she loses, its an almost absolute guarantee that there is an article 50 revocation or suspension. But we can only do one unilaterally. Have a guess which one that is?

The Leadership election is internal, isn't it? So then we end up with a PM we didn't vote for?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:02 pm

Yeah, which is why I said we'd be back to square one because the new leader would be brexit ++++

And its an absolute banger of a point about us ending up with a PM we didn't vote for btw.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:02 pm

duncandisorderly wrote:The Leadership election is internal, isn't it? So then we end up with a PM we didn't vote for?
Bob on.

It's how Gordon Brown became PM.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Bacchus » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:04 pm

My instinct is that she'll survive. The headbangers want her out, for obvious reasons. I'm less convinced that the moderates will though for three reasons:

1 - Some of them will have their eye on the top job (or their preferred candidate) and none of them will want that to be now.
2 - They'll know that ousting her increases the chances of a headbanger getting the job and driving us towards 'No Deal' which is unpalatable to most.
3 - They'll know that putting a headbanger in charge will almost certainly lead to the collapse of government (pre or post Brexit) and a general election which they'd definitely lose.

I suspect May would step down after Brexit is directionally resolved anyway - there'll be plenty who are happy to see her go at that point who'd rather keep her in power for now.

Of course, logic plays no part in things these days so anything could happen... If she stays though it's a hammer blow for the hard Brexit supporters.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:04 pm

two huge news stories just broke

- May has pretty much admitted she won't be leading the Conservative Party in the next election

- EU and Japan agree huge trade deal

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Bacchus » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:05 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Bob on.

It's how Gordon Brown became PM.
And Theresa May.
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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by duncandisorderly » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:06 pm

That's a silly system. The death or resignation of the current PM should necessitate a General Election, surely?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:10 pm

duncandisorderly wrote:That's a silly system. The death or resignation of the current PM should necessitate a General Election, surely?
But we don't vote for a PM, we vote for a local MP.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by arise_sir_charge » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:15 pm

I think she will survive the vote of no confidence. The issue then, as pointed out above is that she has 12 months where she will be unchallenged.

The biggest issue at the moment in Government is the lack of credible opposition. Even with the absolute disaster the Tories have served up I just cannot see Jeremy Corbyn gaining enough votes to see them out of power. The thought of him, Abbot and McDonnel leading the country is truly terrifying.

For the first time in my memory as a voter there is actually nobody worth voting for.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by arise_sir_charge » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:17 pm

martin_p wrote:But we don't vote for a PM, we vote for a local MP.
So you are suggesting that the local MP's seats aren't influenced by who the PM is/will be......interesting theory.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:21 pm

Bacchus wrote:And Theresa May.
Correct.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by martin_p » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:22 pm

arise_sir_charge wrote:So you are suggesting that the local MP's seats aren't influenced by who the PM is/will be......interesting theory.
i'm not suggesting it doesn't, no. Juat pointing out that we all elect local MPs and those MPs represent us in Parliament and effectively choose a PM. So if one PM leaves then the MPs that represent us choose another PM. Although of course if your MP isn't a member of the party with a majority then you don't get a say.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Imploding Turtle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:45 pm

martin_p wrote:I think Turtle maybe questioning your understanding of the word ‘most’.

I've never known someone to have as much confidence as he has with as little to be confidence about as he has.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by AndrewJB » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:45 pm

The only position that could command a majority in Parliament right now is remain (enough Tories still support remain, and Labour is still predominantly that way), so I can only see a second referendum coming out of this, as parliament won’t just unilaterally scrap Brexit.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:20 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:I've never known someone to have as much confidence as he has with as little to be confidence about as he has.
You can't fit a full length mirror in the Turtle Bunker then?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by claretandy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:52 pm

randomclaret2 wrote:Wasnt David Schneider the unfunny one in Alan Partridge ? He hasnt changed
Also has a super injunction to cover up his sexual peccadilloes.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:55 pm

Interesting enough, so does Dominic Raab

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by claretandy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:two huge news stories just broke

- May has pretty much admitted she won't be leading the Conservative Party in the next election

- EU and Japan agree huge trade deal
I take it you didn't see this yesterday, or you choose to ignore it as it doesn't fit your narrative.

https://t.co/ZXBk3xTyHm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:00 pm

No I saw it, but as its going to be exactly the same I didn't think it was worth commenting on.

Still didn't get an answer by the way to your argument about Northern Ireland not benefitting from being in the SM and the CU under Mays deals btw, and your trade figures for what NI does with the UK are well out.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by claretandy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:21 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No I saw it, but as its going to be exactly the same I didn't think it was worth commenting on.

Still didn't get an answer by the way to your argument about Northern Ireland not benefitting from being in the SM and the CU under Mays deals btw, and your trade figures for what NI does with the UK are well out.
So Nigel Dodds is lying when he says NI biggest market is Uk ?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:09 pm

No, he's got his figures wrong though I think

Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check

£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by claretandy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No, he's got his figures wrong though I think

Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check

£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world
you've just proven my point for me, uk trade is worth 5 times more to NI than EU trade.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:02 pm

Think you said it was substantially more than that mate to be fair.

No one is doubting that it would be mad to risk trade with your biggest trading partner...........oh hang on

And its just over 2 times as much!

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by summitclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:11 pm

Tourism
Guinness
Kerrygold
Beef inc McDonald's I think
And many more

Maybe the Irish government need a bit of a shock from the British public.

I've not bought european wine for 10 years by choice and supported our commonwealth.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No, he's got his figures wrong though I think

Based on 2011-2016 figures from fact check

£10.5 bn to UK
£2.7 bn to Republic of Ireland
£1.9 bn rest of EU
£3.7 bn rest of world
Proven wrong again!

Another poster gonna be blocked now!

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by RingoMcCartney » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:23 pm

Been said a couple of times on the radio this morning that If we have a Clean Genuine Brexit on a WTO rules basis. It means any existing trade rules can stay in place for a maximum of years. That would negate any imagined Irish border problems. We'd have 10 years to sort it. Apparently if the EU wouldn't agree they be in breach of international law.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by aggi » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:29 pm

I'm liking Clean Genuine Brexit TM (also known as the Brexit that Ringo wants).

I'd be interested to know more about existing rules staying in place, a quick google throws up nothing. I assume this would only work with full regulatory alignment.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:36 pm

I haven't seen anything like that anywhere.

All I'm getting is the "new" plan from Brexiteers which is being absolutely slaughtered by the experts as unicorny as the last one.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Mala591 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:48 pm

This is an interesting 'WTO rules Brexit' article. Many of the challenges could be minimised by giving the EU 12 months notice

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by arise_sir_charge » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Think you said it was substantially more than that mate to be fair.

No one is doubting that it would be mad to risk trade with your biggest trading partner...........oh hang on

And its just over 2 times as much!
On a lot of aspects of this, you make very cogent arguments but this is the bit where I think you show yourself to be a little blinkered Lancaster.

This works both ways, as do most of the things Brexit related. Would the EU and its member countries want to risk trade with one of their biggest trading partners? They'd be mad!

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Tall Paul » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:56 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Been said a couple of times on the radio this morning that If we have a Clean Genuine Brexit on a WTO rules basis. It means any existing trade rules can stay in place for a maximum of years. That would negate any imagined Irish border problems. We'd have 10 years to sort it. Apparently if the EU wouldn't agree they be in breach of international law.
How does it negate the problem of free movement of EU citizens into the UK across the Irish border?

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:57 pm

But you have to understand the EU and the four freedoms arise-sir-charge.

To us, its not important. To them?

Its everything.

We don't look at it from their point of view, and our red lines make it impossible for them to offer a better deal. It is worth mentioning that when this deal was announced a lot of trade experts were very impressed what we had managed to get despite refusing to budge on free movement.

They regard the EU project as more important than the hit in trade. And they know that it will hit the UK hard. Come on, we all know that now sadly

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by arise_sir_charge » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:But you have to understand the EU and the four freedoms arise-sir-charge.

To us, its not important. To them?

Its everything.

We don't look at it from their point of view, and our red lines make it impossible for them to offer a better deal. It is worth mentioning that when this deal was announced a lot of trade experts were very impressed what we had managed to get despite refusing to budge on free movement.

They regard the EU project as more important than the hit in trade. And they know that it will hit the UK hard. Come on, we all know that now sadly
No way on earth they will walk away from trade of that level for the “EU Project”. Tell the shareholders of all the businesses affected that it’s ok because the EU Project is still on track. They won’t be interested.

Whether we like it or not, big business tends to call the shots in Government and once the industries in EU countries apply pressure they will have to act.

As I said, it works both ways.

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Re: This morning’s polling

Post by Greenmile » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:15 pm

arise_sir_charge wrote:No way on earth they will walk away from trade of that level for the “EU Project”. Tell the shareholders of all the businesses affected that it’s ok because the EU Project is still on track. They won’t be interested.

Whether we like it or not, big business tends to call the shots in Government and once the industries in EU countries apply pressure they will have to act.

As I said, it works both ways.
Are you saying that they need us more then we need them? Why has nobody pointed this out before?

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