This morning’s polling

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:35 pm

Just picking up the news on this after a busy couple of days.

I expect May to win with no confidence only getting around 75 votes.

I note she has fibbed to the 1922 (she promised them the support of the DUP) and I also note she said she would not contest the 2022 election (but was evasive on possible elections before then).

Despite that, this is a cowardly generation. The members don’t get a look in, as proven when May was voted leader in the first place. I would be surprised, nay, amazed if she falls.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:48 pm

Greenmile wrote:Are you saying that they need us more then we need them? Why has nobody pointed this out before?

No, I’m not.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:26 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote: Despite that, this is a cowardly generation. The members don’t get a look in, as proven when May was voted leader in the first place. I would be surprised, nay, amazed if she falls.

Yes, because having used the process to get down to two candidates to take to the membership, one dropped out.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:29 pm

No way on earth they will walk away from trade of that level for the “EU Project”. Tell the shareholders of all the businesses affected that it’s ok because the EU Project is still on track. They won’t be interested.

Two years and people still refuse to understand.

I don't get how people can ignore the reality of this. I'm against this on pure economic bit, but I can see why the EU won't budge.

Why can't you?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:32 pm

Less than 100 MPs look like they have voted against her.

Thats less than 1/6th of the MP in the House. Thats the amount who want a hard brexit.

Thats a Hard Brexit off the table (unless of course we fail to get anything sorted out, which is perfectly possible)

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:37 pm

martin_p wrote:Yes, because having used the process to get down to two candidates to take to the membership, one dropped out.

Exactly. If she has the power to stitch that up, she sure as heck has the power to win a confidence vote while she is PM.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:37 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Less than 100 MPs look like they have voted against her.

Thats less than 1/6th of the MP in the House. Thats the amount who want a hard brexit.

Thats a Hard Brexit off the table (unless of course we fail to get anything sorted out, which is perfectly possible)

Assuming she holds on but doesn’t get the concessions she needs to get her deal through then I can’t see any other way through this than a second referendum.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:40 pm

Neither can I but one thing is for sure, unless the amount of MPs who voted against her is a lot north of 100, then it will be up to Theresa May what she does next.

It looks like the ERG have blown it though, which is good news for the UK.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Less than 100 MPs look like they have voted against her.

Thats less than 1/6th of the MP in the House. Thats the amount who want a hard brexit.

Thats a Hard Brexit off the table (unless of course we fail to get anything sorted out, which is perfectly possible)

How is 100, 1/6 of 316?

Believe whatever you like Lancaster but I am telling that you that big business will not walk away from the worlds 5th biggest economy. They simply won’t allow it to happen.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:44 pm

Then you haven't listened to anything that the EU is about for two years. And no one is saying that big business will walk away, but there has to be favourable trading conditions for them to stay, to expand and to operate here. The global businesses won't take a hit because 17.4 million of you want to turn back time.

I'm sorry, but the 27 EU nations will take a hit, but we will take a bigger one unless we either come to our senses or vote for Mays deal.

And 600 is the amount of MPs in the house (might still be 650).

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:55 pm

You’ll get favourable trading conditions if corporation tax is 10% and regulations (not product standards) are loosened.

Far from guaranteed businesses will go, many may also come (ones who trade worldwide for example).

Anyway, ignoring Lancs’ Remainer maths, 1/6 of 316 is not 100, I agree that hard Brexit is off the table but hard Brexit was off the table since Gina Millar won that case. Imagine if the Government Deal was guaranteed to get through, it would have been a different deal. Not hard, but harder Brexit.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:57 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:You’ll get favourable trading conditions if corporation tax is 10% and regulations (not product standards) are loosened.

Far from guaranteed businesses will go, many may also come (ones who trade worldwide for example).

Anyway, ignoring Lancs’ Remainer maths, 1/6 of 316 is not 100, I agree that hard Brexit is off the table but hard Brexit was off the table since Gina Millar won that case. Imagine if the Government Deal was guaranteed to get through, it would have been a different deal. Not hard, but harder Brexit.

More tax cuts for corporations.

**** off.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:59 pm

I've explained already that its the amount of MPs in the house. They all have a vote.

I thought it was really obvious but clearly not if you are used to ignoring reality.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:00 pm

I stopped listening to your Brexit forecasts sometime ago mate.

In about one minute, I won't have to worry that they might actually come true.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:03 pm

I was wrong.

117 is far worse than 75 (my guess).

100 was viewed as status quo, 130 a disaster leading to resignation - what is in between the two? That is the majority of the non-government Tories.

Stuffed if I know. All I do know is that that clip of the 1922 Committee on BBC1 will have wiped 2% of their next national vote.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:05 pm

Jacob Rees-Mogg is on the BBC after losing the vote saying that May should resign.

How's that for not accepting a result?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:05 pm

No one knows that Crosspool.

Now she has a clear run to try to get her crappy deal through parliament.

Guess we will see where we go from here.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I've explained already that its the amount of MPs in the house. They all have a vote.

I thought it was really obvious but clearly not if you are used to ignoring reality.

So every MP gets to vote in tonight’s vote? Or are you working on the basis there are no none Tory MP’s that want a hard Brexit?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:10 pm

The Brexit vote

The only one that matters.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:11 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No one knows that Crosspool.

Now she has a clear run to try to get her crappy deal through parliament.

Guess we will see where we go from here.

Unless there something significantly different she has to offer on her deal I think it’s still dead in the water.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:15 pm

Yup, but she has to offer it to parliament so we know where we go from here.

Don't panic Hard Brexiteers, you might still get your undemocratic, unmandated Hard Brexit yet!

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:15 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:Jacob Rees-Mogg is on the BBC after losing the vote saying that May should resign.

How's that for not accepting a result?

Yep. 63% to 37% and Mogg doesn't think it is conclusive enough and that May should resign. Yet 52%-48% settles a result for generations. What a massive hypocrite. He's also shown that he's way too toxic to ever lead the Tory Party and the same goes for his mates in the ERG.

arise_sir_charge · Post by **arise_sir_charge** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:17 pm

Lanacaster your reference to 1/6 is clearly inaccurate.

You’ve used numbers from tonight’s vote in reference to the possible result of a different vote.

Actually 117 voting against her is actually much worse than I had imagined for her. Not sure where it leaves her.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:19 pm

No, I've automatically assumed that the other 300 odd MPs are against a hard brexit (which they are)

And it leaves her as the PM. She won't get her deal through, and we have to see it voted it down so we know where we go from here.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:28 pm

Where do we go from here? We cancel the whole thing and pretend that nothing ever happened. And then have another referendum on whether Cameron should be hung, drawn or quartered.

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:29 pm

The ERG thought they would win. They would never have risked this vote if they thought it would lead to May being untouchable for 12 months. Rank amateurs and blowhards, the lot of them. They are now a busted flush. They'll spend the next 12 months being obstructive to their own govt, but out here in the real world it will make them look petulant kids messing about in the classroom.

burnleymik · Post by **burnleymik** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No one knows that Crosspool.

Now she has a clear run to try to get her crappy deal through parliament.

Guess we will see where we go from here.

Labour were talking about tabling a vote of no confidence in May. The Shadow Brexit Secretary was on LBC and said it would be before Christmas. Wonder if that is still in the pipeline?

Worrying where this is heading, almost like it was all staged...

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:36 pm

dermotdermot wrote:Where do we go from here? We cancel the whole thing and pretend that nothing ever happened. And then have another referendum on whether Cameron should be hung, drawn or quartered.

No, I believe there is talk that we should have a referendum to decide if there should be another referendum.....and if the answer is still the wrong answer then we have a referendum to decide if there should be a referendum to have a referendum over whether there should be another referendum to decide if we should have another referendum....and then...etc etc etc

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:41 pm

burnleymik wrote:Labour were talking about tabling a vote of no confidence in May. The Shadow Brexit Secretary was on LBC and said it would be before Christmas. Wonder if that is still in the pipeline?

Worrying where this is heading, almost like it was all staged...

Staged? I think inevitable is the word you're looking for. It was always going to be a complete **** show.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:53 pm

morpheus2 wrote:No, I believe there is talk that we should have a referendum to decide if there should be another referendum.....and if the answer is still the wrong answer then we have a referendum to decide if there should be a referendum to have a referendum over whether there should be another referendum to decide if we should have another referendum....and then...etc etc etc

Saying that there shouldn’t be another referendum on such a close call matter is pretty stupid really. It’s like saying that, following an election, there should never be another because ‘the people’ have decided once and for all, that they will never need to have a change of government again.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:56 pm

I still think that the best way of getting this sorted is to go for Mays Deal. I don't like it, but its the closest thing we've got to a compromise deal.

Its looking dead in the water though, which then means its either another election or another vote.

Both far from ideal, but you would hope they would offer the clarity that we need at the moment.

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:11 pm

dermotdermot wrote:Saying that there shouldn’t be another referendum on such a close call matter is pretty stupid really. It’s like saying that, following an election, there should never be another because ‘the people’ have decided once and for all, that they will never need to have a change of government again.

What happens if it's another close call?

Will it depend on which way the close call swings?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Less than 100 MPs look like they have voted against her.

Thats less than 1/6th of the MP in the House. Thats the amount who want a hard brexit.

Thats a Hard Brexit off the table (unless of course we fail to get anything sorted out, which is perfectly possible)

That's a big improvement (or increase) than your earlier assertions that no MPs wanted a hard Brexit.

I think you're reading a bit too much into Jeremy Corbyn's failure to vote against May, though. Did he really fail to vote against May because he supports her Brexit policy? Or was it because they didn't give him a ballot paper?

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:24 pm

Just to be clear, a hard Brexit (which I want) means leaving both the single market and customs union. A “no deal” Brexit is very different. The latter I do not want (but it does not mean we take any deal at any cost to avoid it).

So I think today eliminates a “no deal” Brexit but probably not a hard Brexit.

If the ERG have succeeded in rebadging Canada as a “not hard Brexit” that is an amazing win for them, it will lead to a lot of moderates being happy with it in the end.

Finally for tonight - these schenanigans are great. For all the talk of chaos, nobody in the country is yet worse off, the politicians lose some sleep, but who cares, and the odds of the EU making an extra concession or two on the way to a free trade deal have gone up. May’s deal will get approved, in the end, mainly out of relief.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:26 pm

Canada +++ is a Hard Brexit

"No Deal" is "No Deal"

I don't pretend to know what is going to happen next, but I have the massive advantage that I've not been ignoring reality for two years so anything I guess will be based on what has happened over the last two years.

Tonight people who ignored reality got it slapped in their faces, and they have decided to......ignore it again.

Again, if people push for the hard Brexit, then you increase the chances of No Brexit at all.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:28 pm

Tall Paul wrote:How does it negate the problem of free movement of EU citizens into the UK across the Irish border?

You still haven't grasped the point of control of borders. Taking control of the UK's borders is not about stopping people from crossing the border; it is about the UK having the right to decide who is allowed to live and work here.

As far as Ireland is concerned, there have never been government restrictions on travel (not even passport requirements) except for security reasons, and, as far as the UK is concerned, that may still continue when we're outside the EU. That will be the UK government's choice. However, the Irish will almost certainly impose restrictions on UK citizens working there because they will have to do what the EU tells them to.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:40 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I still think that the best way of getting this sorted is to go for Mays Deal. I don't like it, but its the closest thing we've got to a compromise deal.

Its looking dead in the water though, which then means its either another election or another vote.

Both far from ideal, but you would hope they would offer the clarity that we need at the moment.

The current Brexit options are:

1. May's Brexit deal

2. A managed WTO Brexit

Parliament is in gridlock. Let the public decide.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:41 pm

Yup, though I don't see who you can't have a 2nd referendum with a remain option7 to be perfectly honest.

QUICK EDIT - Must have been tired last night!

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:42 pm

morpheus2 wrote:What happens if it's another close call?

Will it depend on which way the close call swings?

Well yes it will. If remain won a close call the conversation could continue without any time pressure.

keith1879 · Post by **keith1879** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Yup, though I don't see who you can have a 2nd referendum with a remain option to be perfectly honest.

I think the answer to that is that any referendum without "remain" as an option effectively disqualifies 48.1% of the population from voting. Surely the answer is for Parliament to realise collectively and individually that any agreement must be a compromise. Now I think we all know that that just won't happen so it makes sense to me that you go back to the people and say "Remain or leave on these specific terms (May's deal)?".

I would expect the answer to be leave - not least because the government would be campaigning in favour of it. Whatever the outcome it would almost bound to be a more decisive margin than before and (again whatever the outcome) it would have more legitimacy for two reasons.

1. A more recent test of public opinion.
2. People would be better informed about what "leave" really means. (This cuts both ways).

I voted remain and I would again - but for the record I contacted my MP and urged her to approve Theresa May's deal because it seems like the best chance for a way forward that doesn't involve yet more divisions within the country.

Right_winger · Post by **Right_winger** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:21 am

I fully expect labour to push for a vote of no confidence as soon as Mays deal is defeated in parliament.

burnleymik · Post by **burnleymik** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:47 am

keith1879 wrote:
2. People would be better informed about what "leave" really means. (This cuts both ways).

What information do you have now that wasn't available in June 2016?

There is genuinely no justifiable reason to run the referendum again, apart from to try and reverse the decision.

By all means vote on May's deal or WTO.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:52 am

She only won 200 votes by promising not to fight the next election, without this the vote would have been much, much, closer. And for context, there are more than 150 MP's on the government payroll, so the vast majority of backbenchers voted against her.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:23 am

Good post Keith. Massive apologies for posting when tired so my post came across 100% opposite to the way it was meant to

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:50 am

So she lost then Andy, and her mandate of 200 to 117 doesn't count? Does sound a lot more than 52-48 to be honest

Think I can see how this one is going to play out sadly.

I'll just keep repeating this - if you push for the hard Brexit, you'll get no Brexit. At some stage you are going to have to accept that

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:54 am

With no way out of the backstop May's deal is not leaving in any meaningful sense if, as we should, the uk is to be kept together. If it was really leaving Clake and Morgan would not be supporting it. So any ballot between remain and May's current deal would be a farce.

I would not vote in any such ballot

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:56 am

burnleymik wrote:What information do you have now that wasn't available in June 2016?

There is genuinely no justifiable reason to run the referendum again, apart from to try and reverse the decision.

By all means vote on May's deal or WTO.

It makes absolutely no democratic sense not to include a Remain option and have an instant-runoff referendum between the three options. The only reason not to do that is to exclude the possibility that we've changed our minds, and that is as undemocratic an attitude as just reversing Brexit without another referendum.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:58 am

Then your vote won't count.

I can't think of anything dafter.

And again, this reality thing you are all struggling with - the UK leaves the EU in Mar 2019. No amount of utter bulldust posted on here or wittered by the ERG will change that.

And I'll repeat it again - if you push for the hard Brexit, you'll get no Brexit. At some stage you are going to have to accept that.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:01 am

Oh, and Heseltine absolutely knocking it out of the park

https://twitter.com/BMEuropean/status/1 ... 5950134272" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:02 am

summitclaret wrote:If it was really leaving Clake and Morgan would not be supporting it.

"If they support it then I oppose it!"

What a way to form an opinion.