200 out of 650... The Genius

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:44 pm

So have I got this right?

650 MPs
317 are Tory

63% (or just 3 out of 5 that are Tory) support May to be fit to lead.

So out of 650 MPs just 200 out of 650 think May is right?

Worse still we are guaranteed an extra year of her fudging.
...

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:46 pm

Cameron laughing his piggy head off

Bordeauxclaret · Post by **Bordeauxclaret** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:46 pm

Strong and Stable though remember.

gawthorpe_view · Post by **gawthorpe_view** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:55 pm

There's an awful lot that can happen in 12 months.
They say a week is long time in politics, 52 weeks will feel like a lifetime.

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:24 pm

gawthorpe_view wrote:There's an awful lot that can happen in 12 months.
They say a week is long time in politics, 52 weeks will feel like a lifetime.

May can't now be challenged for 12 months... unless she resigns.

piston broke · Post by **piston broke** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:26 pm

HunterST_BFC wrote:May can't now be challenged for 12 months... unless she resigns.

Can’t be challenged by tory mps but JC can bring a vote of no confidence and he surely will, when the time is right.

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:39 pm

piston broke wrote:Can’t be challenged by tory mps but JC can bring a vote of no confidence and he surely will, when the time is right.

He won't. Has not.
He won't because he will ride out a fecked up Brexit - why would he take on May's mess?
It's not as if national interest is top of his their list...
It's about the next election.
After the event.

Like ...
Watching a car car crash...
then saying they should have had crash barriers put in place years ago.

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:45 pm

I think there could still be a vote of no confidence in the government
and if that was won then, I presume that there would have to be a general election
and as a result it would be more than likely that the Brexit exit date would have to be put back
(probably at least 3-4 months, if not longer) given there seems to be a majority in Parliament for a no deal.

Corbyn at present doesn't seem too keen on a putting forward a no confidence vote
but it may still happen. There also seems to be a growing number in the Labour Party
who favour a People's Vote on Brexit but then if that were to happen we may end up back
to square one especially if the vote was not decisive one way or t'other.

A Peoople's Vote could be one way out for Corbyn and the Labour Party as it would put the
decision back to the people and make it much easier for Corbyn as can't see him getting
much of a better deal even if he won a general election.

It's a bloody mess at present and virtually impossible to see what may happen
over the next few weeks/months apart from:

the possible disintegration of the Tory Party and possibly a third party emerging
made up of hard core Brexiteers supported by UKIP.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:47 pm

Corbyn is likely to wait until May’s deal is defeated in the commons if he’s going for a no confidence vote.

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:52 pm

jurek wrote:
Corbyn at present doesn't seem too keen on a putting forward a no confidence vote
but it may still happen. There also seems to be a growing number in the Labour Party
who favour a People's Vote on Brexit but then if that were to happen we may end up back
to square one especially if the vote was not decisive one way or t'other.

A Peoople's Vote could be one way out for Corbyn and the Labour Party as it would put the
decision back to the people and make it much easier for Corbyn as can't see him getting
much of a better deal even if he won a general election.
.

This is one of my guesses.
Time is a major issue now.

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:54 pm

martin_p wrote:Corbyn is likely to wait until May’s deal is defeated in the commons if he’s going for a no confidence vote.

or get it squeaked through - quietly

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:18 pm

Probably the biggest show of cowardice in parliament history. I've no idea if that's true, but it's how I feel tonight.

The fact that a British Prime Minister has rubbishid the sanctity of nationhood and national security with Passport and Customs Control at one border but not at another, in perhaps the most demented plan of action in British history, adds up to treason and is a crime as such.

Inchy · Post by **Inchy** » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:22 pm

Pstotto wrote:Probably the biggest show of cowardice in parliament history. I've no idea if that's true, but it's how I feel tonight.

The fact of a British Prime Minister to rubbish the sanctity of nationhood and national security with Passport and Customs Control at one border but not at another, is perhaps the most demented plan of action in British history. It's treason and a crime as such.

It’s treason and nothing more. Those at the top table fail to disenthral the people. We are stuck in carphology waiting for those who know inform those who dont

kentonclaret · Post by **kentonclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:01 am

Just loved the way that Jacob Rees Mogg did the maths.

63% against 37% was a crushing defeat for Theresa May and she should resign immediately.

52% against 48% however was an overwhelming and decisive victory.

With spin like that no wonder Geoffrey Boycott aka Theresa May was having trouble staying at the crease.

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:15 am

and the £1 in our pocket is now worth just 1 dollar.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:46 am

HunterST_BFC wrote:and the £1 in our pocket is now worth just 1 dollar.

£1.26 if you're talking USD, or £1.11 if you're talking Euro's .....

HunterST_BFC · Post by **HunterST_BFC** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:14 am

Clarets4me wrote:£1.26 if you're talking USD, or £1.11 if you're talking Euro's .....

We've sunk to almost a dollar
I'll put it this way.

As relevant now as ever it was in the mid 80's

THe The
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPSO8pdAX6c

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:20 am

Jacob Rees-Mogg showed his true colours tonight. A complete subversive. In a different way to Corbyn, but an agitator none the less.

Foulthrow · Post by **Foulthrow** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:09 am

kentonclaret wrote:Just loved the way that Jacob Rees Mogg did the maths.

63% against 37% was a crushing defeat for Theresa May and she should resign immediately.

52% against 48% however was an overwhelming and decisive victory.

With spin like that no wonder Geoffrey Boycott aka Theresa May was having trouble staying at the crease.

In fairness to JRM he was right to point out that the overwhelming majority of the 200 were duty bound to vote for TM as they owe their government job to her. In ordinary times a result like this would result in the leader’s resignation.

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:36 am

kentonclaret wrote:Just loved the way that Jacob Rees Mogg did the maths.

63% against 37% was a crushing defeat for Theresa May and she should resign immediately.

52% against 48% however was an overwhelming and decisive victory.

With spin like that no wonder Geoffrey Boycott aka Theresa May was having trouble staying at the crease.

Don't be silly he accepted defeat but commented that this was a big blow for May. It's an even bigger blow for the Tories. They are finished
Phew .... what happens now???

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:38 am

In fairness to JRM he was right to point out that the overwhelming majority of the 200 were duty bound to vote for TM as they owe their government job to her. In ordinary times a result like this would result in the leader’s resignation.

Secret ballot mate. We only have their word that they voted for her. I'm perfectly comfortable in saying that their word is worthless.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:47 am

HunterST_BFC wrote:So have I got this right?

650 MPs
317 are Tory

63% (or just 3 out of 5 that are Tory) support May to be fit to lead.

So out of 650 MPs just 200 out of 650 think May is right?

Worse still we are guaranteed an extra year of her fudging.
...

The added irony with this is that the House of Commons doesn't actually recognise the party system officially. After an election the queen calls for 'that person who can command a majority in the house' (forgive me if the exact phrase is different), so although the House tends to be divided by party it is not recognised as such by the House itself. This is why, despite many people saying they should have by-elections, there is no problem with an MP switching alliegance at any time. They are there as a representative of a constituency not a party.
Given all this, May hardly commands the majority of the house (or even a third of it) so (and this is where my understanding is a little vague) JC could now easily win a vote of no confidence due to the fact that the current PM does NOT command anywhere near a majority.

Interesting times.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:51 am

Broadly right, but the no-confidence vote isn't clear cut.

he needs the DUP to vote for him (doubtful) or some Tories to vote for him (even more doubtful)

Much more likely to get a vote for a 2nd vote to be honest.

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:01 am

Theresa May commands the support of almost all the people who rely on her patronage, as you'd expect in the arse-licking, money-grubbing, festering pig sty that is Westminster. People who'd vote for Stalin if it meant they could cling to their spot on the greasy pole of Theresa's gravy train.

She commands the support of very few people outside that circle of freeloading spineless leeches.

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:28 pm

Teresa May would win a vote of no confidence if one was put forward by Labour as neither her dis-loyal MPs nor the DUP wish to be out of power.

Should she lose then the Queen would call upon Jeremy Corbyn to try and form a government and there would only be a general election if he couldn't.

LoveCurryPies · Post by **LoveCurryPies** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:33 pm

Corbyn is just a chancer. No real policies....just making it up as he goes along...nothing properly costed. Last election promised free Uni education then after election admits they couldn’t of afforded it.

He’s also highly ineffective as an opposition leader. At best he has a pre-prepared question for PMQ’s.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:54 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Broadly right, but the no-confidence vote isn't clear cut.

he needs the DUP to vote for him (doubtful) or some Tories to vote for him (even more doubtful)

Much more likely to get a vote for a 2nd vote to be honest.

Agreed but the only thing may be that some Tories seem to be so angered by May that they might just risk an election. Can't see it but it is just about possible.

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:16 pm

bfcmik wrote:Teresa May would win a vote of no confidence if one was put forward by Labour as neither her dis-loyal MPs nor the DUP wish to be out of power.

Should she lose then the Queen would call upon Jeremy Corbyn to try and form a government and there would only be a general election if he couldn't.

I think you have pretty much nailed it there except maybe, just possibly, there could be just enough Tory rebels to cause an upset. Even if the DUP backed May (as you would expect) it would only take a small handful of Tory rebels to turn things around. Remember in a vote of this kind if you lose a vote from your own side (abstentions aside, which would be very few if any) it is a vote for the opposition, effectively meaning a two vote swing for every Tory rebel. The Tories and DUP have a majority of 4 combined over the rest of the house, it would take only 3 Tory rebels (assuming the various other non-Labour MPs voted with the opposition) for the vote to succeed. Are there 3 Tories brave enough/have enough hatred of May to rebel? Who knows but it would be mighty close. I think Corbyn will sound out a few potential Tory rebels before he called the vote. And given the Irish question would the DUP necessarily back May?

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:31 pm

Given Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott's previous utterings on a United Ireland, I would doubt the DUP would back Labour at this time !!

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:10 pm

houseboy wrote:And given the Irish question would the DUP necessarily back May?

I think they would - as they would fear the alternative even more.

And the majority, though officially 4, is really greater than that as the Sinn Fein MPs neither attend the House of Commons nor vote as they would have to take the Oath of Allegiance to the Monarch

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:07 pm

HunterST_BFC wrote:So have I got this right?

650 MPs
317 are Tory

63% (or just 3 out of 5 that are Tory) support May to be fit to lead.

So out of 650 MPs just 200 out of 650 think May is right?

Worse still we are guaranteed an extra year of her fudging.
...

Only 317 voted so you have no idea what the other 333 think

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:17 pm

FCBurnley wrote:Only 317 voted so you have no idea what the other 333 think

You're right. We can't possibly know what they think. Except the Muslim ones. Apparently we can always tell what's on their minds.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:28 pm

Surely she can't be serious,another 3 years.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/ ... 6418485248

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:40 pm

tiger76 wrote:Surely she can't be serious,another 3 years.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/ ... 6418485248

The Tories can kick her out in a year if they want to.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:42 pm

If May has 200 MP supporters and Corbyn has 40 MP supporters then who are the other 410 supporting ?!?

houseboy · Post by **houseboy** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:50 pm

bfcmik wrote:I think they would - as they would fear the alternative even more.

And the majority, though officially 4, is really greater than that as the Sinn Fein MPs neither attend the House of Commons nor vote as they would have to take the Oath of Allegiance to the Monarch

Yeah, forgot Sinn Fein don't attend or vote. So if the DUP didn't back May when voting (on any issue) but simply abstained she would technically have a majority of 1 wouldn't she. How close is that.

Of course the unknown quantity is the LibDems who just vote whichever way they feel like on any given day.

Corky · Post by **Corky** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:18 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:You're right. We can't possibly know what they think. Except the Muslim ones. Apparently we can always tell what's on their minds.

Bacon butties I imagine!!!

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:15 pm

After the shameless bribing of the DUP, May's government have another scrape of the bottom of the barrel to bolster their support in these difficult times:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... misconduct" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I wonder whether people loyal to May submitted letters of no confidence to the chairman of the 1922 Group in order to trigger the no confidence vote, and entrench her for a further year? Not casting aspersions on this by the way, as it would be clever politicking. If she knew how many additional letters were required, it would give her a stronger idea of what level of resistance there is. And it gives her the reassurance of having a year without that pressure.

The facts remain that the Tories can't coalesce around a single brexit outcome (and certainly not remain). I don't think she can plug the hole by winning over MPs from other parties, and although Corbyn claims he'd relish the opportunity to negotiate a Labour brexit, I don't think he'd get anything better than what we get through remaining a member. I don't think anyone can. I think it's going to be another referendum.

With this there is the opportunity to consider May's deal against remaining (and leaving with no deal), and then considering how the concerns of those people who voted leave might best be assuaged while staying in the EU. A lot of that will have to be around countering the nonsense that people think about the EU - it's not a dictatorship (all the countries in it are democracies), we have always been a sovereign nation (we have engaged in war while being a member), we have more control of our borders than we actually took advantage of (it was considered cheaper for us not to bother with those controls), and if we're afraid of what the EU might turn into, isn't it better for us be in it and to have a say? Turkey isn't going to join any time soon. It should also be said, the EU isn't perfect, but it's better than trying to go it alone in a globalised world, and easier to reform while we're in it.

People go on about the 17 odd million people who voted for Brexit, but nobody talks about the 12 or so million who didn't vote at all. I can't say which way people would vote, but I have a feeling more people would be engaged this time, and if we're looking at "the greatest ever democratic expression of the British people" - then surely everyone who refers to this would be respectful of a voter turnout bigger than the last one.

timshorts · Post by **timshorts** » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:54 pm

Mala591 wrote:If May has 200 MP supporters and Corbyn has 40 MP supporters then who are the other 410 supporting ?!?

Themselves, while employing their other halves to do pretend jobs for them as part of a tax avoidance scam.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:20 pm

timshorts wrote:Themselves, while employing their other halves to do pretend jobs for them as part of a tax avoidance scam.

Cynical Tim it does make you wonder if MP'S are content to stay in the EU,as this absolves them of responsibility and accountability,surely not.