2019 PDC World Darts Championship

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:22 pm

This first match Aspinal v Peterson.....Aspinal is hot fav on betfair....can see him leading early as Peterson has taken a set or 2 to hit stride all week...if Aspinal wins the first set then Peterson will drift to maybe 4/1 depending on whether he was broken in first set or it was with the darts....these 2 have had a charmed run to this stage.....as has van de pas....can see lots of betting swings in this first game....Petersons doubling on the whole has been good this week but is scoring is eratic....Aspinal taken out some key finishes and been particularly good with his final dart, whether that be a treble or double.....anyone who uses betfair should be able to trade a tidy profit in this one....utc.
Dolan really should batter van de pas in the 2nd game.
Wade at around 1,37 really should beat the very one paced Joyce but last game on and crowd well oiled Wade could get a lot of stick for that game against Asada....it affected him in the first game....Wade only ever does enough so not a player to take heavy odds on for.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:42 pm

hc17, I don't bet much and not done on the darts. Is each way, betting they'll reach the final?

So Rob Cross at 7/1 would be 3.5/1 for him to reach the final?

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:28 pm

Yes it is frank but if thats what you do then make sure you get 1/3 the odds a place...some only offer 1/4......I prefer taking the win price on betfair then laying off stake if they play a game thats likely to be tough.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:34 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:Yes it is frank but if thats what you do then make sure you get 1/3 the odds a place...some only offer 1/4......I prefer taking the win price on betfair then laying off stake if they play a game thats likely to be tough.

So it would be a third of 7/1 (2.33/1), and not 3.5/1 on him reaching the final then? I think he will reach the final going off the bottom section of the draw. But I then think MVG will be too much for him.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:17 pm

if you bet £10 each way at 7/1 frank....1/3 odds and he gets to final and loses then you have a winner at 4/6 ish....your stake was 20 quid and your return £33.30.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:20 pm

It looks like braincell is going through.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:43 pm

FactualFrank wrote:It looks like braincell is going through.

OK, so he didn't go through. Get in!

And he didn't really shake the hand of his opponent and didn't bother shaking the hands of the officials.

5 star dickhead.

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:49 pm

Aspinall has been fantastic. Very disappointed with Dimi yesterday.

Duffer_ · Post by **Duffer_** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:58 pm

It's refreshing to see the Searle vs Smith match being played in a good spirit. Too many chest beating pr1cks in darts at the mo.

UTC!

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:59 pm

jdrobbo wrote:Aspinall has been fantastic. Very disappointed with Dimi yesterday.

And Aspinall will probably win again, tomorrow.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:06 pm

Searle and Smith both good lads...gracious in defeat and dont give it the big one when they win...James Wade take note...oops sorry James, forgot you put in another crap display and are out.....good riddance.
Next game on is Lewis v Chizzy....lewis lost all 6 matches against Chizzy and if ( and it is an if ) Chizzy turns up in same form as last round it should be enough....Lewis had a poor year and his averages were much higher in last years tournament.....I seen Chizzy throw in too many shockers to trust him at less than 4/6 though...if he throws a 5 point worse average than the last round then this could be close.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:28 pm

last match on tonight sees my pick for the tournament play ( taken 12/1 on cross )....current price around 1.3 is poor value in my book...humphries is very straight and a heavy scorer....I think if Cross isnt at his very best and he misses a double or 2 this could easily be 6 or 7 sets....should be a great match.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:42 pm

106 and 107 finish for Cross and won first set 3-0....those finishes were huge as Humphries right on his tail....Humphries just smiled as if to say that he knew he was playing the big boys now and he had to be ruthless with his scoring....Cross looking sharp and focused as ever.

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:57 pm

Humphries...top class. Michael Smith will be laughing his socks off but he should exercise caution: Humphries could have him in the long race. We’re first to five now!

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:09 pm

I will be with Humphries at the prices....both will get tons of 180s and I can see this going to 5-3 or 5-4 so maybe the bet will be total 180s depending where the mark is set. Cross's average did drop tonight down to 97 but fair play to humphries he could have embarassed Cross but for some brilliant early finishes from Cross.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:11 pm

Glad I didn't place the bet now!

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:27 pm

he wasnt value at 7/1 frank with smith already qualified....I was concerned about him playing humphries who is a much better player than the betting is giving him credit for....pre tourny it looked like if he beat smith he would have a strong chance of getting to the final.....as this tourny progressed it became clear that dobey and humphries are going to be mixing it with the big boys....Cross had a dip in form tonight but thats not to say humphries wouldnt have won anyway.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:36 pm

First match on stage tomorrow
ASPINAL 88 92 96 96 averages in tourny......v......DOLAN 89 93 96 90 averages in tourny.
take that last average of Dolan with a pinch of salt as he wasnt pushed by the poor
van de pas and was visibly getting bored....would have been a mid to high 90s effort.
ASPINAL is priced at 1.7 on betfair but these are pretty evenly matched so at double the price
my moneys on the steady DOLAN to start the match....I think this should be a close match.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:40 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:he wasnt value at 7/1 frank with smith already qualified

He was 7/1 when I was considering placing the bet this afternoon, before Smith had played.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:02 am

still not value frank once the abilities of humphries were known....he would have been 6/4 in final if playing mvg....evens against smith and although 1.3 today that was a silly price....should have been more like 1.7.....which makes 7.5/1....thats the price I had him at personally before a dart was thrown so happy to take 12/1 from the so called weaker side of the draw....as it happens humphries was a surprise package and cross was below par tonight....claimed he was tired?????? which I found strange but there you go.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:06 am

bet victor going 11/4 for Humphries against Smith.....that seems good value to me.

trawdenclaret · Post by **trawdenclaret** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:53 am

Humphries as run is race he is very close to the smith anderson camp and i expect smith to beat him.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:00 am

Smith is hot fav and may well win but 11/4 is a big price when you consider smiths averages this week....94...100...100 and humphries 98...96...90...100........pace of game will suit both big style and can see both with 100 plus averages in this game..... the stand out bet may be over 18.5 maximums in a game that I think will go to 8 or 9 sets...so potentially around 40 legs.....with smith being so short a fav the market is only expecting probably 5-2 or 5-3....I reckon this could be a very close game so happy with the 11/4 and if/when Humphries leads will take a profit but keep enough for a better profit if he does win.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:02 pm

Poor darts from Dolan there. You can't be missing a double 20 finish 3 times and expect to win the leg in a Quarter-Finals. Aspinall deservedly 1 set up.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:07 pm

Dolan been woeful so far....bottling it and will only give the lad confidence...that high dart from dolan and warward one into 5 or 1 needs to stop. usually solid on doubles and been garbage on them as well....must do better....aspinal is very beatable.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:14 pm

Looking like a 5-0er here.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:22 pm

I dont think it will be that but Dolan needs to take a good look at himself,,,,,,surely being a professional sportsman means you perform under pressure...his experience should have given him the edge in this but he looks like a rabbit in the headlights....poor effort.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:38 pm

4-0. One more needed. Dolan actually throwing some decent darts though now.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:02 pm

They often do that when they are all but out...he made it so easy for aspinall early which allowed aspinall to cruise....garbage from Dolan.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:06 pm

5-1 finish. Should have been a 5-0 whitewash really. You could see it from Set 2 that Aspinall was going to steamroll him.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:17 pm

Dolan won his set 3-0 didnt he? so 5-1 a fair result.....Dolan ended up with a 94 average but he didnt throw at that many doubles so that flatters him.....Aspinal allowed to cruise so threw his best average of week at just under a hundred.....cannot see Aspinaal beating smith or humphries,,,,I have just taken 25/1 for humpries as i think if he gets past smith he will be in the final....big price.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:22 pm

Yeah, but Aspinall had a dart for one of the legs and think that would have carried him through to win the set. But he covered the double with his first dart. How much have you slammed down on Humphries? Did you do E/W?

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:42 pm

Anderson on another level, so far. Brushing Chizzy aside with ease.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:13 pm

Just done humpries to win...he will probably be 3 or 4/1 if he gets to the final.....I think he is more of a 6/4 shot to beat smith and will win his semi with ease against Aspinal....can take a nice profit if he gets to final.....Anderson looking good....bad back? what bad back....thing with Anderson though is that he hates the mvg celebrations and it brings out the best in him....I will be with Anderson against mvg.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:18 pm

My money would be on MVG, assuming they both get through.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:21 pm

I think Anderson will probably lead at some stage early on so prefer to take the longer odds for him for trading purposes...would imagine mvg would be around 1.5 for the match....couldnt take that personally....Andersons first 3 set averages today were 115.6....104 and 110....he went off a bit late when it looked in the bag but even mvg would be happy with those first 3 sets.

trawdenclaret · Post by **trawdenclaret** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:23 pm

Another solid performance from Michael Smith could it be an Anderson Smith final ?.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:34 pm

Smith played nicely there...such a shame that humphries didnt really turn up....Smith lapped up the pace of the game and should beat Aspinal easily now....who knows, mvg and Anderson could have a tough 9 setter tomorrow and Smith could pick up the pieces in the final.....all 3 are quick players so it could be a phenomenal final.

depechedingle · Post by **depechedingle** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:39 pm

Well it's now MVG time. Would love Joyce to push him but can't see anything other than a 5-0 or 5-1.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:29 pm

mvg struggling for focus against joyce.....cannot see that happening against his old mate anderson.

Jeremy_Bentham · Post by **Jeremy_Bentham** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:09 am

. hopes that happyclaret17 isn’t putting a lot of money on all these predictions he’s been coming out with.

Gp8419 · Post by **Gp8419** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:14 am

Was thinking that myself hc17 seems a good lad but the resident gambling expert must be a few quid down.Save your money on Anderson happy mvg will smash him and smith up.But I won't be putting a penny on at the odds

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:54 am

Dolan and Humphries didnt really turn up yesterday....perhaps Dolan cannot handle that level apart from when he plays in Dublin and Humphries maybe had a reaction after doing a job and a far better performance against Cross....both of them were 2nd favs for their matches so hardly huge shocks....unfortunately these form swings happen in darts....great when it works in your favour but leaves a nasty taste when it works against you....on current form Smith should steam roller Aspinal....PROVIDING BOTH TURN UP IN SAME FORM.....yesterday mvg got bored against Joyce and I wouldnt read too much into that....both him and anderson will be fully focused tonight and thats for sure but Anderson usually goes up a gear against mvg and he really hates him doing those ott celebrations so the early part of this match we should see fireworks.
Some real stars for the future have emerged this year....Dobey, Humphries and early loser De Zwaan so it bodes well for next years tournament.
I think the final could be a brilliant game though providing Smith performs like he can against Aspinal.....more importantly though....3 points against the hammers and its game on again....long way to go yet...utc.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:43 am

Looking forward to both semi-finals this evening. It'll be interesting how Smith copes with the nerves with the potential of being in his first World's final vs Aspinall who's made his first step with making the money - he'll be under no pressure as he's already done better than he expected.

MVG vs Anderson, obviously what most people would say is the 'final', but fancy MVG to get this one. Not just because he has a much better head to head (and 2-1 in World's finals). Both will be confident though. 9 dart finish in this tie? If not, if Smith gets through to the final, we could see one then as an MVG/Anderson vs Smith will bring in plenty of 140s/180s.

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:57 am

its taken smith a long time to start showing some consistency on stage....I think he is a bit nervy and often pulls that last dart meaning 140 instead of 180.....small margins at this level....would like to see him do it as he comes across quite well and I think off stage he is probably the best practice player....slowly he is starting to show his real form on stage but I still think there is more to come.....he should have beat cross last year but for those missed doubles.....thats my concern with him....will he cope with the pressure....we know mvg and anderson will cope.

Jeremy_Bentham · Post by **Jeremy_Bentham** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:47 pm

happyclaret17 wrote:its taken smith a long time to start showing some consistency on stage....I think he is a bit nervy and often pulls that last dart meaning 140 instead of 180.....small margins at this level....would like to see him do it as he comes across quite well and I think off stage he is probably the best practice player....slowly he is starting to show his real form on stage but I still think there is more to come.....he should have beat cross last year but for those missed doubles.....thats my concern with him....will he cope with the pressure....we know mvg and anderson will cope.

. once played Smith at a tournament a few years ago. He recalls Smith did seem like a decent guy when they had a chat at the front door after the game. He recalls him being a lot smaller than he looks on the tv & smokes like a chimney.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:22 pm

Here we go...

Jeremy_Bentham · Post by **Jeremy_Bentham** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:29 pm

. thinks Asp is going to get blown away if Smith continues like this.

MACCA · Post by **MACCA** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:36 pm

. wrote:. thinks Asp is going to get blown away if Smith continues like this.

Quality start, he's certainly in the groove

Jeremy_Bentham · Post by **Jeremy_Bentham** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:49 pm

. thinks that was much better from Aspinall.