Will Dyche beat Cotterill's no penalty record

[ClaretTony]

Garreth O'Connor scored from the penalty spot against Sheffield Wednesday on New Year's Eve 2005. It was our seventh penalty of the season. O'Connor had scored four, both Ade Akinbiyi and Jon Harley had scored from the spot while Gifton put one into orbit.

Suddenly they dried up. We didn't get a solitary penalty in any of the next 63 league games before winning one at Sunderland in April 2007, and that was a poor decision from Trevor Kettle with Andy Gray scoring.

Move on a few years and in April 2017, Sam Vokes scored from the spot at Everton. It was our sixth penalty in 26 Premier League, all scored with two each from Ashley Barnes, Andre Gray and Vokes. Incredibly, all but one of them was away from home all of which were in games we lost.

And then they dried up again. We've now equalled that 2006-2007 record in not winning a single penalty in our last 63 Premier League games. If we don't get one tonight then Dyche has got the record.

The incredible thing is that we were getting more than our fair share up to the last one on both occasions.

[houseboy]

All things tend to average out so maybe that is the reason for our present situation. However it may also have a lot to do with the fact that we spend a large amount of time in our own half where, unfortunately, you don't win penalties.

[Silkyskills1]

April 2007 when Gray scored at Sunderland.

[ClaretAndJew]

2005-2017 is a long stretch without a penalty.

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

Garreth O'Connor scored from the penalty spot against Sheffield Wednesday on New Year's Eve 2005. It was our seventh penalty of the season. O'Connor had scored four, both Ade Akinbiyi and Jon Harley had scored from the spot while Gifton put one into orbit.

Suddenly they dried up. We didn't get a solitary penalty in any of the next 63 league games before winning one at Sunderland in April 2007, and that was a poor decision from Trevor Kettle with Andy Gray scoring.

Move on a few years and in April 2017, Sam Vokes scored from the spot at Everton. It was our sixth penalty in 26 Premier League, all scored with two each from Ashley Barnes, Andre Gray and Vokes. Incredibly, all but one of them was away from home all of which were in games we lost.

And then they dried up again. We've now equalled that 2006-2007 record in not winning a single penalty in our last 63 Premier League games. If we don't get one tonight then Dyche has got the record.

The incredible thing is that we were getting more than our fair share up to the last one on both occasions.

If you remember, I suggested a fund raising idea called “Pay the Penalty” or something similar at that time. It took a while for it to be won!

[Quickenthetempo]

Mike Dean likes to give penalties, if it's not tonight it could be years away.

[ClaretTony]

All things tend to average out so maybe that is the reason for our present situation. However it may also have a lot to do with the fact that we spend a large amount of time in our own half where, unfortunately, you don't win penalties.

But that isn't the case as shown by the over average pens we were winning prior to the two long spells without one

[quoonbeatz]

big mike can make up for the shocker that wasn't awarded to us at huddersfield last season.

[Devils_Advocate]

It was hardly surprising under Cotterill. He did a decent job for the first 18 months and after the that it was just depressing. I think following that NYE game we only managed about 8 goals in the remaining 19 league games so with that level of threat up top we were lucky to get zero pens

[jedi_master]

big mike can make up for the shocker that wasn't awarded to us at huddersfield last season.

That was the worst decision out of the lot of 'should have been pen's' we have had, for me. It was so easy to see the way Hendrick went down that it was a pen, couldn't believe it wasn't given.

I would love us to get one tonight in the 93rd minute to win the game from Barnes doing a ridiculous swan dive. We are owed that.

[NottsClaret]

big mike can make up for the shocker that wasn't awarded to us at huddersfield last season.

Other than using a weapon to bring Jeff down, I'm not sure how much more of a penalty that could have been.

The worst decision to go against us since Lee Mason bottling it against PNE years ago.

[ksrclaret]

Hardly a coincidence that the two most recent managers favouring long ball, defensive-based tactics have overseen the longest periods without a penalty being awarded.

[ClaretTony]

It was so easy to see the way Hendrick went down that it was a pen, couldn't believe it wasn't given.

Was blatantly obvious from the far end but if Tierney was clearly shouting NO CONTACT, as he was, why didn't he yellow Jeff for simulation?

That and the one we didn't get when Hart hauled down Wood against West Ham are probably the worst two. It was the same in the Cotterill run when some that weren't given were so hard to believe.

[ClaretTony]

Hardly a coincidence that the two most recent managers favouring long ball, defensive-based tactics have overseen the longest periods without a penalty being awarded.

But that's not the case at all if you look at the run prior when we were getting a lot of pens playing the same football.

[RMutt]

......whereas Huddersfield’s penalty for handball when Mike Duff didn’t touch the ball and was outside the box anyway was given. The problem for us is that we don’t really run at pace into the box and so don’t catch the odd stray leg and very few are given to the attacking team for the wrestling that goes on at set pieces.

[ClaretTony]

......whereas Huddersfield’s penalty for handball when Mike Duff didn’t touch the ball and was outside the box anyway was given. The problem for us is that we don’t really run at pace into the box and so don’t catch the odd stray leg and very few are given to the attacking team for the wrestling that goes on at set pieces.

Bloody hell, that was a shocker. No handball and not in the box. Worse still, Duff got a yellow for telling the ref he’d got it wrong and then got a second yellow late in the game.

[Spijed]

Hardly a coincidence that the two most recent managers favouring long ball, defensive-based tactics have overseen the longest periods without a penalty being awarded.

Even so, it still doesn't excuse incidents like the Hendrick penalty when even the goalkeeper admitted he brought him down!

[jedi_master]

When I think of bad penalties given against us, almost all of them end up being us playing Preston. Off the top of my head.

- Ricardo Fuller dive at Turf Moor
- Stephen Elliott dive at Deepdale
- Lee Roche on Eddie Lewis when not even on the playing area let alone the box
- Whaley stopping a goalbound shot on the line from Blake with his hand in about the 2nd minute, penalty and red card not issued.

I know every team could give a list of pens/decisions not given but over the last decade and half we have had some really poor ones.

[ClaretTony]

When I think of bad penalties given against us, almost all of them end up being us playing Preston. Off the top of my head.

- Ricardo Fuller dive at Turf Moor
- Stephen Elliott dive at Deepdale
- Lee Roche on Eddie Lewis when not even on the playing area let alone the box
- Whaley stopping a goalbound shot on the line from Blake with his hand in about the 2nd minute, penalty and red card not issued.

I know every team could give a list of pens/decisions not given but over the last decade and half we have had some really poor ones.

The Eddie Lewis one was the day Steve Cotterill was done for failing to cooperate with the drugs testers. He was in such a mood after the game that when this bloke knocked on the dressing room door he told him to **** off not knowing he was there to test players.

Dreadful, dreadful decision by Graham Laws I think. Wasn’t a foul and wasn’t even on the pitch.

What about the two joke penalties against us at Deepdale in 2009, one against Jensen and the other Caldwell?

[jedi_master]

The Eddie Lewis one was the day Steve Cotterill was done for failing to cooperate with the drugs testers. He was in such a mood after the game that when this bloke knocked on the dressing room door he told him to **** off not knowing he was there to test players.

Dreadful, dreadful decision by Graham Laws I think. Wasn’t a foul and wasn’t even on the pitch.

What about the two joke penalties against us at Deepdale in 2009, one against Jensen and the other Caldwell?

The Stephen Elliott one I mentioned is one of the two in the 2009 game, he was the player who dived over Jensen's arm. I think Caldwell's was given for 'handball'.

[ClaretTony]

The Stephen Elliott one I mentioned is one of the two in the 2009 game, he was the player who dived over Jensen's arm. I think Caldwell's was given for 'handball'.

It was handball when the Preston player pushed his arm onto the ball. Every bit as bad as the first one.

[JohnDearyMe]

Hardly a coincidence that the two most recent managers favouring long ball, defensive-based tactics have overseen the longest periods without a penalty being awarded.

As above though how do you explain us getting 6 penalties in 26 games under Dyche in the Premier League to none since?

Arguably since then we've been playing more and better quality attacking football (well for spells last season at least).

[houseboy]

But that isn't the case as shown by the over average pens we were winning prior to the two long spells without one

That's what I mean. If we get an unusually high number of penalties in a relatively short period of time it follows that there will have to be a barren spell or two to compensate for that.
In sales an average sales person (not the particularly good or bad) will convert at an industry standard in terms of presentations per sales (in insurance for instance its about 1 in 3), but it won't be 1in every 3 it will be 1in 3 or 2/6 or 3/9 etc. But it will average out at 1/3. It's the same in many industries, it's actually quite uncanny. I presume the same will work in terms of penalties i.e. the more you get in a short term the less you will get at another time.

You do still have to get in the opposition area though.

[Hipper]

Swansea away. Vokes clearly handles, in the Swansea penalty area. We get a penalty. Referee Anthony Taylor.

When do we next get Anthony Taylor?

[Aclaret]

Swansea away. Vokes clearly handles, in the Swansea penalty area. We get a penalty. Referee Anthony Taylor.

When do we next get Anthony Taylor?

Yes but Taylor had an excuse......he was still pi**ed from a stag do !

[ClaretTony]

Swansea away. Vokes clearly handles, in the Swansea penalty area. We get a penalty. Referee Anthony Taylor.

When do we next get Anthony Taylor?

Only one since then at Everton which was as obvious a penalty as you can get. Awful decision that by Taylor at Swansea but he balanced it up by allowing that stoppage time winner for them.

[Gnulty]

The lads are bad actors and no good at diving. A decent enough bunch of footballers, I think they are . 3-0 win tonight. UTC!

[Kitch1966]

When I think of bad penalties given against us, almost all of them end up being us playing Preston. Off the top of my head.

- Ricardo Fuller dive at Turf Moor
- Stephen Elliott dive at Deepdale
- Lee Roche on Eddie Lewis when not even on the playing area let alone the box
- Whaley stopping a goalbound shot on the line from Blake with his hand in about the 2nd minute, penalty and red card not issued.

I know every team could give a list of pens/decisions not given but over the last decade and half we have had some really poor ones.

[Kitch1966]

Think it was Matt Hill not Simon Whaley that handled on the line but you're right in saying that Lee Mason bottled it. He sent off two Burnley players later in that game and I've never rated Mason.

[Tall Paul]

That's what I mean. If we get an unusually high number of penalties in a relatively short period of time it follows that there will have to be a barren spell or two to compensate for that.
In sales an average sales person (not the particularly good or bad) will convert at an industry standard in terms of presentations per sales (in insurance for instance its about 1 in 3), but it won't be 1in every 3 it will be 1in 3 or 2/6 or 3/9 etc. But it will average out at 1/3. It's the same in many industries, it's actually quite uncanny. I presume the same will work in terms of penalties i.e. the more you get in a short term the less you will get at another time.

You do still have to get in the opposition area though.

Gambler's fallacy.

If you flip a coin five times and get five heads the next flip isn't more likely to be tails

[ClaretTony]

Think it was Matt Hill not Simon Whaley that handled on the line but you're right in saying that Lee Mason bottled it. He sent off two Burnley players later in that game and I've never rated Mason.

It was Hill I think

[IanMcL]

Tonight, tonight, a penalty tonight.

[Chester Perry]

yes he will it turns out

[duncandisorderly]

Who sent off Trippier in a (I think) 1-0 Charlton win at the turf. He was sent off for handball on the line. Looked dubious as all hell at the time, and even more so with the one camera angle replay. Dyche's first season? Or Eddie Howe time?

[gandhisflipflop]

I predict that McNeil will win us a penalty soon. Hopefully against Fulham.

[djemba-djemba]

When I think of bad penalties given against us, almost all of them end up being us playing Preston. Off the top of my head.

- Ricardo Fuller dive at Turf Moor
- Stephen Elliott dive at Deepdale
- Lee Roche on Eddie Lewis when not even on the playing area let alone the box
- Whaley stopping a goalbound shot on the line from Blake with his hand in about the 2nd minute, penalty and red card not issued.

I know every team could give a list of pens/decisions not given but over the last decade and half we have had some really poor ones.

Martin Olsson for Blackburn in March 2010 is the 1st one that springs to mind when I think of bad penalty decisions.

[houseboy]

Gambler's fallacy.

If you flip a coin five times and get five heads the next flip isn't more likely to be tails

The law of chance, which you are talking about, is not the law of averages. You can toss a coin a million times and the chances of it being heads every time remains constant at 50%. But the law of averages says that you will, over that number of throws (or indeed pretty much any number) wind up with a fairly even spread of heads and tails.

[Quickenthetempo]

We should of had a penalty last night for handball.

[Tall Paul]

The law of chance, which you are talking about, is not the law of averages. You can toss a coin a million times and the chances of it being heads every time remains constant at 50%. But the law of averages says that you will, over that number of throws (or indeed pretty much any number) wind up with a fairly even spread of heads and tails.

But the "law of averages" is a fallacy. There is no evening out of events that have already happened.

[houseboy]

But the "law of averages" is a fallacy. There is no evening out of events that have already happened.

If the law of averages is a fallacy I'll make a bet with you - you flip a coin a hundred times and put your money on it being a hundred heads and I'll put my money on it being otherwise. I'll even offer you odds of a hundred to one.

[Tall Paul]

If the law of averages is a fallacy I'll make a bet with you - you flip a coin a hundred times and put your money on it being a hundred heads and I'll put my money on it being otherwise. I'll even offer you odds of a hundred to one.

Don't be stupid.

[Sleeping Cat]

One bad penalty decision given against us that springs to mind is Shackell for a perfectly good forward sliding tackle, cleanly taking the ball just outside the box against Derby.

[houseboy]

Don't be stupid.

So I'm right then? Cheers.

[Tall Paul]

So I'm right then? Cheers.

No, unless you can explain how your proposal has any value in proving this law of averages you're talking about.

[houseboy]

No, unless you can explain how your proposal has any value in proving this law of averages you're talking about.

So, you don't want to try it out with a bet? Although the law of averages is not an empirical law as such statistics do tend to back up the fact that things do tend to even out over a period of time, like the tossing of a coin. Tossing a coin a hundred times and coming up with the same result every time IS possible and each toss remains 50/50 no matter how many times you do it but the likelihood of it happening in real terms is remote. In fact last I looked some time ago (and mathematics is constant I believe) the chances of flipping only 30 heads in a row out of 100 tosses is roughly 1 in 30 million.

[Foulthrow]

Martin Olsson for Blackburn in March 2010 is the 1st one that springs to mind when I think of bad penalty decisions.

That one really tipped me over the edge - especially after the game when Olsson admitted that BFS had told him that Dean gives a lot of pens so make sure you go down - how was that not bringing the game into disrepute? Then again, same old Barstewards.....

[Herts Clarets]

Second half last night there was an incident where the Huddersfield player handled the ball with both arms. Against his right arm was from close range, and although you have seen them given they are usually for the bigger teams. It then went across his chest and hit his left arm. Seen plenty of those given, clearly not if you are wearing a Burnley shirt though....

[Tall Paul]

So, you don't want to try it out with a bet? Although the law of averages is not an empirical law as such statistics do tend to back up the fact that things do tend to even out over a period of time, like the tossing of a coin. Tossing a coin a hundred times and coming up with the same result every time IS possible and each toss remains 50/50 no matter how many times you do it but the likelihood of it happening in real terms is remote. In fact last I looked some time ago (and mathematics is constant I believe) the chances of flipping only 30 heads in a row out of 100 tosses is roughly 1 in 30 million.

Of course I'm not interested in your stupid bet as it bears no relation to the point we're talking about.

How about we flip coins until we've flipped 10 heads in a row then, by your law of averages, do you think that in the next 90 flips there's a higher probability of 60 tails and 40 heads to even it out, or is 45 heads and 45 tails more likely?

[piston broke]

Now we have McNeil taking defenders on in the box that elusive penalty won’t be long coming.

[Lord Beamish]

Of course I'm not interested in your stupid bet as it bears no relation to the point we're talking about.

How about we flip coins until we've flipped 10 heads in a row then, by your law of averages, do you think that in the next 90 flips there's a higher probability of 60 tails and 40 heads to even it out, or is 45 heads and 45 tails more likely?

Mate. You’re playing Chess with a Pidgeon.