Brexit " The Uncivil War " C4, 9.00pm

[Clarets4me]

Just a heads up, this " Drama documentary " screens tonight on Channel 4 ...

[Bosscat]

Just a heads up, this " Drama documentary " screens tonight on Channel 4 ...

Bloody hell isn't there enough effin brexit on here and the news without dramas about it

[duncandisorderly]

The whole bloody thing has been a drama documentary.

[Devils_Advocate]

So thats what IT and Ringo have been up to since Xmas

[barba]

Based on Tim Shipman's great book 'All Out War' with some artistic licence.

[Bosscat]

Based on Tim Shipman's great book 'All Out War' with some artistic licence.

In other words its made up bull****

[barba]

In other words its made up bull****

According to Shipman Stronger In were openly mocking Matthew Elliott about how they were going to trounce Vote Leave not wimpering about how they'd lost decades ago.

[CrosspoolClarets]

A really good programme but one obviously written by Remainers. It was trying to be fair, but didn’t quite manage it, though Cumberbatch playing the genius Dominic Cummings was excellent and I think it portrayed him fairly.

Cummings has been spot on about this before and after the vote. He argues this year that MPs have messed up the whole thing irretrievably, that invoking Article 50 was like putting a gun to our head, and that May / Hammond are a complete disaster. I’ve just read his blog on http://www.dominiccumming.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; after watching the programme, he sounds like he is off with the fairies on some of it but he hits the nail on the head more often than not.

The programme got one or two bits spot on - that this was coming for 20 years. Only twice in annual polls since 1996 has “Leave” plus “Stay, but reduce EU powers” not exceeded 50%. We are always leaning that way, and even if this current mess results in us staying in, still will be.

[Clarets4me]

In other words its made up bull****

Tim Shipman's book is largely acknowledged, by both sides, as a fair reflection of the Brexit campaign as it was fought ....

I do think the C4 programme had a mournful Remainer tinge as to how they lost, due to their taking for granted the power of " The status quo " until it was far too late, no mention either of the power of the Government funding poured into the " I'm in " campaign prior to the " Official " start of the hostilities !!

[gandhisflipflop]

I wouldn't trust anything that shithouse station puts out

[Lancasterclaret]

A really good programme but one obviously written by Remainers. It was trying to be fair, but didn’t quite manage it

Amazing.

I'm guessing you are saying that because it didn't portray the EU as a goose stepping Nazi superstate?

Normal people have agreed that its a really good program with Benidorm Cumberbund doing his customary excellent job as Dominc Cummings but they have glossed over the more blatant breaches of electoral law committed by leave campaigners.

But well worth a watch

[Damo]

Just seen this
https://tinyurl.com/yadl4av8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think it's time some of you calmed down

[Damo]

Benidorm Cumberbund

[Test User]

There aren't many TV shows or movies with Benadryl Cabbagepatch that i've not enjoyed so i'll give this a watch tonight on catch-up.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'll send you a link on twitter to the best Benedict Cumberbatch re-names are Damo!

[Lancasterclaret]

[biggles]

this must be the most civil brexit thread on here, ever. now, i wonder why!

[nil_desperandum]

this must be the most civil brexit thread on here, ever. now, i wonder why!

Yep, but we're all missing Ringo. The other thread is equally dull.

[Spijed]

Yep, but we're all missing Ringo. The other thread is equally dull.

Was Ringo banned?

[nil_desperandum]

Was Ringo banned?

Dunno, but he hasn't surfaced yet in 2019.

[CrosspoolClarets]

To repeat what I said above, for the benefit of Lancs who seems to have misunderstood it, the programme was generally good and fair, it was just a bit unbalanced.

There was no need for the closing credits to talk about allegations regarding data the way they did (e.g. it didn’t say that Cummings has it in writing that Cambridge Analytica offered him the Facebook data but he turned them down flat and used the separate company Aggregate IQ for online marketing). Similarly, the programme showed nothing of Osbourne, Project Fear, silencing Brexit supporting cabinet ministers, and the taxpayer funded leaflet through our door which cost more than Vote Leave’s entire online spend.

What it did very well though was to demonstrate various common misconceptions.

Mainly that CDE (I.e. uneducated) voters were responsible, or that migration was the key reason. It showed that the third who were always going to vote Brexit were probably mainly those categories, just like the third who were always going to vote Remain were probably well educated and economically focused.

But the third in the middle, the crucial swing vote that Cummings mainly won, were driven primarily by sovereignty / control. This group aren’t the uneducated or xenophobic section, it includes, say, many small business owners, and many ethnic minorities. They weren’t conned by the size of a figure on a bus, they were persuaded (probably by the EU’s continuing integration). This is the group who delivered Brexit, and whose desires May’s deal, in hindsight, doesn’t begin to address. It’s naive of May to think migration is the key issue. This thing will just blow up again in future years if she gets it through.

That’s my big takeaway from the programme.

[Fretters]

I'll send you a link on twitter to the best Benedict Cumberbatch re-names are Damo!

Please send me this!! @Fretters1984

[Lancasterclaret]

I can't find it, but it was on the @thepoke somewhere

Sorry Fretters!

[Lancasterclaret]

Yeah, I stand by what I said I think Crosspool.

The take away from it is that its a very good watch but people need to remember that its a dramatisation and cannot be relied on to be factually accurate all the time.

And its worth reiterating that illegal funds were used in the crucial week before the referendum to bombard those most likely to change their minds with adverts that was tailored exactly to their way of thinking (and in most cases, not actually true).

Thats not arguable, but has come out since (hence the end of credit comments at a guess)

[timshorts]

Dunno, but he hasn't surfaced yet in 2019.

Maybe someone bought him one of those genetics testing kits for Christmas and he's discovered that he's 90% immigrant, or, even worse, German.

[CombatClaret]

30mins from the man himself, far more interesting that the show.

Cummings - Why Leave Won the Referendum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some key take away
> the public don't understand the EU
> the public and MPs don't understand the single market (so don't talk about it in detail)
> Immigration, Immigration, Immigration - Turkey, boats, Greece etc
> make a leave vote a vote FOR the NHS (not really about the EU)
> make a leave vote an anti-westminster, anti-establishment vote (not really about the EU)
> harvest data to target small subsets of people to advertise their own personal Brexit
> the remain campaign was p1ss poor
> "Tory MPs largely do not care about the poor or the NHS"

I admire his optimism regarding taking immigration of the agenda if it can be democratically controlled in the UK.

Also lots on risk/loss aversion, the pain for loss is greater than the pleasure of gaining. Take BACK control, the idea we've lost something even if we haven't or by losing some things we gain others but the loss feels heavier.

[Lancasterclaret]

The chances of immigration ever being off the agenda is utterly ridiculous IMHO

As long as there are politicians looking for an easy blame, then immigration will always be on the agenda.

[dsr]

Yeah, I stand by what I said I think Crosspool.

The take away from it is that its a very good watch but people need to remember that its a dramatisation and cannot be relied on to be factually accurate all the time.

And its worth reiterating that illegal funds were used in the crucial week before the referendum to bombard those most likely to change their minds with adverts that was tailored exactly to their way of thinking (and in most cases, not actually true).

Thats not arguable, but has come out since (hence the end of credit comments at a guess)

It's also worth reiterating that the Remain campaign set the rules and used those rules to spend twice what the Leave campaign was able to spend. And also worth reiterating that the Leave campaign spent only the money they were told by the Electoral Commission they could legally spend, and it was only after the event that the Electoral Commission changed its mind and decided they had given duff advice.

[Test User]

Dunno, but he hasn't surfaced yet in 2019.

It can't be a coincidence that Ringo and IT have both disappeared at the same time. Almost as if they're the same person.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Probably protesting outside parliament with his yellow jacket shouting about Metropolitan bubbles and dinner parties.

[AndrewJB]

30mins from the man himself, far more interesting that the show.

Cummings - Why Leave Won the Referendum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some key take away
> the public don't understand the EU
> the public and MPs don't understand the single market (so don't talk about it in detail)
> Immigration, Immigration, Immigration - Turkey, boats, Greece etc
> make a leave vote a vote FOR the NHS (not really about the EU)
> make a leave vote an anti-westminster, anti-establishment vote (not really about the EU)
> harvest data to target small subsets of people to advertise their own personal Brexit
> the remain campaign was p1ss poor
> "Tory MPs largely do not care about the poor or the NHS"

I admire his optimism regarding taking immigration of the agenda if it can be democratically controlled in the UK.

Also lots on risk/loss aversion, the pain for loss is greater than the pleasure of gaining. Take BACK control, the idea we've lost something even if we haven't or by losing some things we gain others but the loss feels heavier.

I think the Leave campaign was cleverly run. “Take back control” was a masterful slogan. Simple, yet worked on many levels. Levelling aim at the EU for the reason the NHS, schools, and housing aren’t working for the country was clever (even if utter rubbish), because there was no way Cameron was going to stand up and say; “Actually it’s because my government has underfunded those things” Likewise Leave focused their personal attacks on fellow conservative remain campaigners, freezing out all the other parties - all of whom had a more cogent and positive message for remaining. Of all the media time and print space devoted to the referendum, 87% quoted UKIP or Conservative Party sources, effectively sidelining the representatives of over two thirds of the electorate. Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas, and Jeremy Corbyn all campaigned hard for Remain, yet it’s only Nicola Sturgeon who got airtime enough to be remembered out of the left of centre.

As a remain voter I don’t agree with their campaign, but I can’t help but admire their cunning in running it.

[Lancasterclaret]

Jeremy Corbyn campaigned hard for remain?

No, he didn't. He certainly did in the last couple of weeks, but he needed to step up long before that. And please lets not hear anymore bullshit about his "waiting game".

Stil waiting to be proved wrong, but he can see that a No Deal Brexit gives him the license to do what he wants, and the membership will let him do it.

[aggi]

For those who haven't seen them, the Leave ads used on Facebook are interesting

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/brexit-faceb ... rts-192164" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some are incredibly irrelevant to the EU but you can see the levers they're going for (although obviously some like the football competition were just data mining).

[AndrewJB]

https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-n ... on-the-eu/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This was Corbyn setting out the Labour position in April 2016. Nothing there about monsters under beds. No lies about the EU being the best thing in the world. He made clear after becoming leader in the previous September that he would be campaigning for and voting remain. "Jeremy is up and down the country pursuing an agenda that would make a 25 year old tired" - Angela Eagles (who was hardly Corbyn's biggest fan) days before the referendum itself.

Now none of this, nor the ten rallies, and speeches in countless towns and cities around the country, might be enough for you, so perhaps you could point to me some politicians who worked harder than him?

As for a no deal brexit, he's just led Labour in a vote to undermine the very possibility. The very best outcome is in forcing May to call another referendum, and Labour will do this as soon as all the other options are exhausted.

[Lancasterclaret]

Why do you think a hell of a lot people think he's a Brexiteer Andrew?

I keep forgetting that you vote Green because you come across as someone who sits right behind the "St jeremy can do no wrong and all naysayers must be crushed" lot.

[Devils_Advocate]

For some odd reason you come across all Ringo as soon as you get on the subject of Corbyn

[Lancasterclaret]

Oh come on, where is my use of the word "traitor" and anything football score related?

Give me some credit please!

I like a lot of the Lab manifesto, I like quite a lot of the Lab MPs but I'm a one issue man at the moment and IMHO he's not cutting it.

[Devils_Advocate]

That exactly the kind of response Id expect from Ringo

[Lancasterclaret]

Now you are just being mean!

[claret59]

I am struggling to recognise where I fit in with the suggestion that I was in some way manipulated or targeted by any kind of campaign. The only thing I recognise that may have had an influence was the bus , but I can say that I worked out for myself that it would not be as simple as portrayed.

I also got my copy of the booklet that was supposed to set out all the pros and cons and yet was very one-sided in promoting Remain.

As for the programme. It was spoilt for me with its very clear 'post script' lettering at the end, that somehow brought President Trump into play!

[Lancasterclaret]

The amount of leavers who say advertising never worked with them is unreal.

Why would anyone bother with any advertising at all if it doesn't work?

I don't know any of you so I can't speak for any of you but to pretend that (for example) posts about Turkey joining the EU and all its citizens being able to move here wouldn't have had an effect on people isn't remotely credible. And remember, they knew exactly who to target because of the data mining that was going on.

[burnleymik]

Impossible to prove, but I would wager a huge majority of the leave voters were already going to vote that way before any of the campaigning had even started.

[JohnMcGreal]

Impossible to prove, but I would wager a huge majority of the leave voters were already going to vote that way before any of the campaigning had even started.

You're most probably right, but decades of being drip-fed scare stories about the EU and foreigners by the tabloid press will do that to people.

The British public have been played for years and years, and the guff put out by the Leave campaign in 2016 was just the cherry on top of the cake of misinformation.

[CombatClaret]

Impossible to prove, but I would wager a huge majority of the leave voters were already going to vote that way before any of the campaigning had even started.

Cummings postulates at the start the population was

1/3 = EU is rubbish and I want out and not afraid of consequences
1/3= EU is a positive force, I like it and will definitely vote remain
1/5 = EU is rubbish, I would like to be out but I'm afraid of the consequences so I will probably vote remain.

(doesn't mention what the other 2/15th or 14% of the pop are up to)
So him aim was to Motivate the Leavers, De-Motivate the Remainders and Persuade enough of the 1/5th
So they targeted 7million people with 1.5billion digital ads over the final 10 days.

My favorite

Screen-Shot-2018-07-27-at-17.25.51.png (222.57 KiB) Viewed 2339 times

[Lancasterclaret]

Impossible to prove, but I would wager a huge majority of the leave voters were already going to vote that way before any of the campaigning had even started.

Not at all, leaving % of voters spiked on Brexit voting day. Its never been as high before or since.

[SmudgetheClaret]

Can we just skip all this brexit sh*te and start voting in a populist government..

[Damo]

It can't be a coincidence that Ringo and IT have both disappeared at the same time. Almost as if they're the same person.

Or that you started posting around the same time they disappeared, despite being registered since 2016.

Welcome back pal

[CrosspoolClarets]

When It all boils down to it, Vote Leave did it better by using modern (legal) advertising whereas the Stronger In campaign relied on the less effective and ironically more expensive traditional advertising.

Both pushed the truth to the limit, and perhaps beyond. I don’t care about the spending limit issue, there may have been a legality issue on the Leave side and not on the Remain side but the Remain side still spent more with the leaflet and business advertising too, so in the real world I don’t see they have a lot to complain about.

Cummings and co definitely got Leave over the line. While there has always been a big majority in the last 20 years for a reduced role EU, there hasn’t been a majority to actually leave. The genius was that he linked the things that led to the woman being in tears to the EU, whereas whilst that was a factor due to the way that culture affects Westminster, it was U.K. politics that has led to the unhappiness she was expressing.

As the EU integrates though, that majority is always going to go up, there seems no way that a more integrated EU will actually INCREASE the demand to stay in it, so I’m really struggling to see what the likes of Anna Soubry is trying to achieve. All she will get is a nation still in the EU but even more desparate to leave.

The best option would seem to be a new outer ring, of a type that doesn’t currently exist, that would seem the way to address populism in the countries less keen on full integration.

[aggi]

When It all boils down to it, Vote Leave did it better by using modern (legal) advertising whereas the Stronger In campaign relied on the less effective and ironically more expensive traditional advertising.

Both pushed the truth to the limit, and perhaps beyond.

I'd say "legal" is stretching it a bit, a lot of the targeted advertising on Facebook was outright lies. Just a few examples:







They did do a good job of getting people to click on links under false pretenses, such as:



Vote Leave managed a modern campaign where it specifically targeted voters with what concerned them (regardless of the relation that had to the matter at hand or even how true it was) and it worked very well in that way. I'd suspect that this was probably the only time that will work, I'd imagine online campaigns will be much more strictly regulated in future.

Another interesting aspect is the bot activity and how that reinforced the Brexit message, quite an interesting article here https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/15/study ... ccounter=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; although I don't know what impact that would have had on voters.

[aggi]

Impossible to prove, but I would wager a huge majority of the leave voters were already going to vote that way before any of the campaigning had even started.

A fair proportion had already decided, a fair proportion hadn't