#politicslive
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Re: #politicslive
Can I just ask..
What's Brexit?
What's Brexit?
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Re: #politicslive
So at some point in the future we can't invoke Article 50? We're tied to the EU for eternity?.Burnley Ace wrote:No we can’t, you haven’t read the judgment and the bit about a withdrawal being unequivocal.
That's just nonsense. We can leave at any point in the future that we choose.
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Re: #politicslive
No deal.
Re: #politicslive
Whilst I stated ' can be' so meaning may not be it is actually a scientific fact. The rational part of a brain is not fully developed until 25. Stating 'old people believe any old junk' is clearly not and is certainly derogatory.Greenmile wrote:Whilst I don’t class myself as “young”, this is ageist.
...and so is this.
Re: #politicslive
Who's answering for you ? You implied that reading the polls would inform me that they would tell me what the current direction of the electorate is.FactualFrank wrote:Don't answer for me. You degrade yourself when you think you can vote for people. You can't. So don't do it. You're actually arguing with someone who (as said) is on the fence. And why would anybody rewrite history? It's like a blank cheque where politics is concerned. There is nothing to cash. They all come out with the same crap. Corbyn is against May - HE IS NOT against her decision. He wants the same thing as her - but what else can he do, other than use that to gain power? By that I mean both May and Corbyn want to remain. We can all see it.
I'm at a loss as to what you mean suggesting I'm voting for the people. I don't know what gave you that impression. I agree with you ... you can't ! That is my whole point . People are pontificating their own view to be the view of the majority. It doesn't.
I was on the fence at the time of the referendum. But I'm now firmly in the leave camp, mainly because of the way people want to rewrite history and change the question of the original referendum.
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Re: #politicslive
So it’s going to be a custom union not The Custom Union and we’re going to be in alignment with the Single Market (wtf does that mean?). How much are we going to pay (like Norway do) for this access? We will still be under the rule of the ECJ, we will still have free movement, we will still be aligned with EU rules and regulations but have no say in what they are. How does that respect the referendum and what’s the point in leaving?nil_desperandum wrote:I'm no fan of Corbyn or his personal stance on brexit, but the Labour Party position on a Customs Union and some close alignment with the Single Market is pretty clear; and some form of deal that included those would both solve the "Irish" question and almost certainly be accepted by the EU and secure a majority in Parliament.
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Re: #politicslive
Go and read the judgment and look up what unequivocal means. A bit of research before you comment always helps.nil_desperandum wrote:So at some point in the future we can't invoke Article 50? We're tied to the EU for eternity?.
That's just nonsense. We can leave at any point in the future that we choose.
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Re: #politicslive
Blackrod
Both the most set in his way old person who still thinks the Germans are the enemy and a fresh faced 18 year old lass have exactly the same amount of votes.
That is a democracy
You sound like someone who isn't a democrat with the nonsense you are spouting on here.
Both the most set in his way old person who still thinks the Germans are the enemy and a fresh faced 18 year old lass have exactly the same amount of votes.
That is a democracy
You sound like someone who isn't a democrat with the nonsense you are spouting on here.
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Re: #politicslive
Is it just me or am I missing something.. This is a board for fans of Burnley fc there's a thousand and one sites to post about politics. If you want to do that go and find one. I have opinions but it's not for here. Most important UTC.
Re: #politicslive
If this is not an assumption then I don't know what is. re: another referendum.FactualFrank wrote:Which is why leavers don't want it. They know they will lose. I know that, they know what, you know that.
We all know that.
Re: #politicslive
Yes, you missed something the moment you clicked on a a thread title that was not in your interest.saltaireclaret wrote:Is it just me or am I missing something.. This is a board for fans of Burnley fc there's a thousand and one sites to post about politics. If you want to do that go and find one. I have opinions but it's not for here. Most important UTC.
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Re: #politicslive
This is what it says:The ECJ has said that if the UK revoked Article 50, it would stay in the EU “under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a member state”.Burnley Ace wrote:Go and read the judgment and look up what unequivocal means. A bit of research before you comment always helps.
Under current terms any state can invoke Article 50, that's what it's there for. It begins the process of leaving.
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Re: #politicslive
We have miscommunicated at some point.Espia wrote:I was on the fence at the time of the referendum. But I'm now firmly in the leave camp, mainly because of the way people want to rewrite history and change the question of the original referendum.
But I couldn't go from on the fence to leave purely due to propaganda - and that's what has basically happened.
The question remains. It's never changed. But if you are with me on the fence, it's never been a straight choice. There's been more buts than a billy goat.
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Re: #politicslive
Google Article 50 and unequivocal - read the article on the Institute of Government site or one of the hundred others that explains what unequivocal means and how the U.K. cannot withdraw Article 50 to get more time.nil_desperandum wrote:This is what it says:The ECJ has said that if the UK revoked Article 50, it would stay in the EU “under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a member state”.
Under current terms any state can invoke Article 50, that's what it's there for. It begins the process of leaving.
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Re: #politicslive
[*]
The decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019. That would still require agreement from the EU member states. Rather, a notification revoking Article 50 means not leaving the EU at all. In other words, it would stop Brexit.nil_desperandum wrote:This is what it says:The ECJ has said that if the UK revoked Article 50, it would stay in the EU “under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a member state”.
Under current terms any state can invoke Article 50, that's what it's there for. It begins the process of leaving.
Re: #politicslive
Absolutely. I agree with you. I was teetering on the verge of abstaining from voting in 2016 because in all honesty this wasn't a single question referendum. It was a combination of dozens and dozens of issues all rolled into one. I couldn't get my head around it and thought it a deriliction of personal responsibility to vote on something I didn't understand. But at the 11th hour I voted with my heart rather than my head and voted to leave.FactualFrank wrote:We have miscommunicated at some point.
But I couldn't go from on the fence to leave purely due to propaganda - and that's what has basically happened.
The question remains. It's never changed. But if you are with me on the fence, it's never been a straight choice. There's been more buts than a billy goat.
The reason I'm resolutely now in the Leave camp is not because I'm more certain that it's the most prosperous/best economic thing to do it's because to not go ahead with it would be a betrayal of the original democratic decision that was made .... for better or worse. And that's not to say that I'm jumping off the bridge when I have the option to not to do. It's saying that the vote has to be respected and time will tell whether it was for the better or not. It's not a forgone conclusion.
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Re: #politicslive
Your'e stating the obvious, it does stop brexit, but nowhere in the ruling does it say that we can't "leave" by invoking Article 50 at some point in the future, and it doesn't give a timescale - so far as I can see.Burnley Ace wrote:[*]
The decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019. That would still require agreement from the EU member states. Rather, a notification revoking Article 50 means not leaving the EU at all. In other words, it would stop Brexit.
So basically we can revoke Article 50, and then try to renegotiate a better deal with the EU over a period of time, and if unsuccessful just leave by invoking Article 50. That may not be in the spirit of the ruling, but I see nothing that contradicts / prevents it.
Here's the judgement:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0191en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: #politicslive
What's a Parliamentarian - is it an MP?
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Re: #politicslive
I’m not sure whether this is parody. But assuming it’s not, it’s waffle like this that gives leave voters a bad name. I mean poppies man? Give your head a shake.ClaretAL wrote:The problem is the youth has been targeted and bought it hook, line and sinker, and now what was 14 year old originally, a generation that have been pinpointed for no respect and lawlessness are now 16 and can vote in this. Taking in to account what our forefathers died for i find it an absolute disgrace to there bravery to be honest. And to make matters worse we have a no confidence vote which could create a general election, which will probably vote in Labour just to show opposition and we get a PM who backed the IRA and wont wear a poppy and disagrees with honouring our fallen. this is where we are heading.....REALLY????
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Re: #politicslive
Are you excluding the Lords from Parliament? - many would like to do sobasil6345789 wrote:What's a Parliamentarian - is it an MP?
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Re: #politicslive
A hard Brexit, sever all ties was the only realistic viable option from the outset, that course of action would have prevented & solved everything, no negotiation & no deal, simples.
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Re: #politicslive
To the people who are crying about the possibility of a second referendum because it would be undemocratic, what’s the issue? Unless I’m missing something a second referendum would be a totally democratic way to determine whether or how the British public want to leave the EU currently. Just admit that you’re scared that the majority would vote for remain and therefore you are not interested in democracy in the slightest.
A work colleague today was blaming ‘my lot’ (remainers) for the current mess that we find ourselves in. He is a staunch remainer and voted for May to lead the country. Go figure?
Remember how nice everything was a few years ago? We were all happy, we all got along, there was a range of topics covered on the news. Kind of makes you wonder why we’re persevering with this sh*t storm.
A work colleague today was blaming ‘my lot’ (remainers) for the current mess that we find ourselves in. He is a staunch remainer and voted for May to lead the country. Go figure?
Remember how nice everything was a few years ago? We were all happy, we all got along, there was a range of topics covered on the news. Kind of makes you wonder why we’re persevering with this sh*t storm.
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Re: #politicslive
Sorry folks, I had to retire the RingoMcCartney parody account. It was taking up far too much of my time and reality seemed to have outdafted him.
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Re: #politicslive
No we can’t! The EU aren’t going to renegotiate a better deal because they aren’t going to negotiate unless Article 50 has been invoked. That’s why they wouldn’t start negotiating in the first place!nil_desperandum wrote:Your'e stating the obvious, it does stop brexit, but nowhere in the ruling does it say that we can't "leave" by invoking Article 50 at some point in the future, and it doesn't give a timescale - so far as I can see.
So basically we can revoke Article 50, and then try to renegotiate a better deal with the EU over a period of time, and if unsuccessful just leave by invoking Article 50. That may not be in the spirit of the ruling, but I see nothing that contradicts / prevents it.
Here's the judgement:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0191en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What you are suggesting is that Parliament pass a vote to remain in the EU knowing that it’s a ruse to deceive them so that we can start to renegotiate a deal. That’s a good footing to start!! It’s just a ridiculous proposition
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Re: #politicslive
SimplesJakubclaret wrote:A hard Brexit, sever all ties was the only realistic viable option from the outset, that course of action would have prevented & solved everything, no negotiation & no deal, simples.
I love these easy, cut off all trade with our largest trading partner and destroy all our industry solutions.
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Re: #politicslive
What’s your view on the Good Friday agreement and how does that fit in with the sever all ties?Jakubclaret wrote:A hard Brexit, sever all ties was the only realistic viable option from the outset, that course of action would have prevented & solved everything, no negotiation & no deal, simples.
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Re: #politicslive
It isn't though.simples.
It never was
it never will be
saying glib stuff doesn't help in the slightest
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Re: #politicslive
That isn't the ruling, just the summary. The full ruling is here http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/d ... id=8611623" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;nil_desperandum wrote:Your'e stating the obvious, it does stop brexit, but nowhere in the ruling does it say that we can't "leave" by invoking Article 50 at some point in the future, and it doesn't give a timescale - so far as I can see.
So basically we can revoke Article 50, and then try to renegotiate a better deal with the EU over a period of time, and if unsuccessful just leave by invoking Article 50. That may not be in the spirit of the ruling, but I see nothing that contradicts / prevents it.
Here's the judgement:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0191en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's a bit more technical but it does suggest that Article 50 can only be revoked if the intention is to remain a member and a vote or similar has been held to show that. Which would mean a vote would have to be held (either in parliament or a referendum) saying we want to remain (and not that we want to remain whilst we regroup to give us negotiation time, etc). Can you see that happening?
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Re: #politicslive
Happy a few years ago? Everything was anything but nice hence the need for a referendum in the 1st place, I'm not sure which rock you've been residing under within the last decade, the sh*tstorm is surfacing & has been surfacing for 1 sole reason, a minority refusal to accept a majority decision.Rileybobs wrote:To the people who are crying about the possibility of a second referendum because it would be undemocratic, what’s the issue? Unless I’m missing something a second referendum would be a totally democratic way to determine whether or how the British public want to leave the EU currently. Just admit that you’re scared that the majority would vote for remain and therefore you are not interested in democracy in the slightest.
A work colleague today was blaming ‘my lot’ (remainers) for the current mess that we find ourselves in. He is a staunch remainer and voted for May to lead the country. Go figure?
Remember how nice everything was a few years ago? We were all happy, we all got along, there was a range of topics covered on the news. Kind of makes you wonder why we’re persevering with this sh*t storm.
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Re: #politicslive
Given the time constraints the most obvious route is some form of CU,this should assuage any Irish border fears and gives business some clarity at least in the short term,while the trade negotiations continue,some brexitters won't like it but i don't see any other options,May doesn't appear to have this on her mind ATM however.Lancasterclaret wrote:Any of you Brexiteers accept that we might need to extend Article 50, or are you happy with a "No Deal"?
Again, I'm going to need some concrete info why a "No Deal" works for the UK btw
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Re: #politicslive
Harder border not our problem, Ireland is Ireland.Burnley Ace wrote:What’s your view on the Good Friday agreement and how does that fit in with the sever all ties?
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Re: #politicslive
Is there anything about this process you actually understand Jakub?
Apart from that its all "simples" obviously
Apart from that its all "simples" obviously
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Re: #politicslive
You think things were worse before the government decided to run a referendum to leave the EU?Jakubclaret wrote:Happy a few years ago? Everything was anything but nice hence the need for a referendum in the 1st place, I'm not sure which rock you've been residing under within the last decade, the sh*tstorm is surfacing & has been surfacing for 1 sole reason, a minority refusal to accept a majority decision.
Re: #politicslive
Yes you are clearly missing something but you don't realise it. And that is where does it all end ?Rileybobs wrote:To the people who are crying about the possibility of a second referendum because it would be undemocratic, what’s the issue? Unless I’m missing something a second referendum would be a totally democratic way to determine whether or how the British public want to leave the EU currently. .
So, just supposing, you ignore the first referendum and have a second one. If the Remainers win it then you would proffer the argument ... that's it , we don't need to discuss it anymore. Which by default is a hypocritical stance because you have scuppered the very idea that a result of a referendum should be absolute.
Whereas, if the Leavers win the second referendum, your argument will then be that at the end of the 2 year transition period, when then revelation of what the EU will allow us to comply with in order to come to agreement on Trade (amongst everything else) is that we now really, really, really know what Leave means we ought to have yet another, a third, referendum. This will then go on and on until eventually Remain will win their desired outcome.
I can't understand why you don't get this.
Re: #politicslive
The vitriol exhibited on here by some posters is shocking. When discussing this issue among family, friends and strangers do we really show such hatred to an opposing view to our own? A hatred that is almost personal. Is this a natural way to go about things? I hope not and I have no experience of it in the circles in which I move.
It worries me that if this board is typical then the country is being torn apart.
It worries me that if this board is typical then the country is being torn apart.
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Re: #politicslive
Why would it go on and on until Remain win with their desired outcome? Why would the minority end up winning?Espia wrote:Yes you are clearly missing something but you don't realise it. And that is where does it all end ?
So, just supposing, you ignore the first referendum and have a second one. If the Remainers win it then you would proffer the argument ... that's it , we don't need to discuss it anymore. Which by default is a hypocritical stance because you have scuppered the very idea that a result of a referendum should be absolute.
Whereas, if the Leavers win the second referendum, your argument will then be that at the end of the 2 year transition period, when then revelation of what the EU will allow us to comply with in order to come to agreement on Trade (amongst everything else) is that we now really, really, really know what Leave means we ought to have yet another, a third, referendum. This will then go on and on until eventually Remain will win their desired outcome.
I can't understand why you don't get this.
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Re: #politicslive
I understand its a extremely concept the problem is neanderthals failure to grasp & wish to regress.Lancasterclaret wrote:Is there anything about this process you actually understand Jakub?
Apart from that its all "simples" obviously
Re: #politicslive
I don't think you quite understand the WTO rules. The WTO rules say that we trade under certain basic rules, essentially involving tariffs (duty) on imports and exports. WTO rules do not say that we cannot trade with a county. As proof, look at the USA - we trade with the USA under WTO rules, and yet they are our biggest single export destination by country.Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:Simples
I love these easy, cut off all trade with our largest trading partner and destroy all our industry solutions.
If you were that badly adrift, it's no wonder you were so anti-Brexit.
As it happens, Brexit will put 10% tariffs (approx.) on goods. This is just as disastrous a move as when the pound rises by 10% against the Euro - but fortunately, this time round, the pound has dropped by 10% against the Euro, so it's pretty much a wash. Of course, imports have risen by 20% as a result, which might force Euro exporters to relocate their factories and jobs to the UK to save money, and might cause a big reduction in our dangerously high balance of payments deficit - but surely that would be a good thing?
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Re: #politicslive
That makes no sense
A 2nd referendum if won by leave would result in us leaving.
A 2nd referendum if won by remain would result in us staying.
(this to espia btw)
A 2nd referendum if won by leave would result in us leaving.
A 2nd referendum if won by remain would result in us staying.
(this to espia btw)
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Re: #politicslive
AwesomeJakubclaret wrote:I understand its a extremely concept the problem is neanderthals failure to grasp & wish to regress.
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Re: #politicslive
You're correct and I never said that that wasn't the case, but based on the main thrust of the ruling which says that sovereign states must - and i'm paraphrasing - have the right to self-determination in terms of EU membership, and that we would remain "under the current /same terms", (i.e The Lisbon Treaty) then it doesn't seem to me that in theoretical terms they could prevent us revoking and then at some point re-invoking. So far as I know invoking Article 50 is the only way of leaving, so they couldn't make a binding ruling that tied us to the EU in perpetuity.aggi wrote:That isn't the ruling, just the summary. The full ruling is here http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/d ... id=8611623" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's a bit more technical but it does suggest that Article 50 can only be revoked if the intention is to remain a member and a vote or similar has been held to show that. Which would mean a vote would have to be held (either in parliament or a referendum) saying we want to remain (and not that we want to remain whilst we regroup to give us negotiation time, etc). Can you see that happening?
Anyway the whole issue is hypothetical and irrelevant, since the EU would clearly agree to us delaying the date of our EU exit, if it avoided the No deal scenario. (I've merely been arguing in terms of the actual theoretical implications of the ruling).
Re: #politicslive
Concrete evidence? George Gideon had the entire Treasury behind his forecasts of doom and gloom if the Brexit vote was lost, and he was a million miles out. If you want anybody with few resources than the Chancellor to produce cast iron proof in a way to satisfy the most blinkered Remainer, then you'll be waiting a long time.Lancasterclaret wrote:Any of you Brexiteers accept that we might need to extend Article 50, or are you happy with a "No Deal"?
Again, I'm going to need some concrete info why a "No Deal" works for the UK btw
I'm happy to accept "no deal". I doubt we will get it, because the EU know that they are giving up access to their biggest export market (worth €320bn per year, and the IW Institute in Cologne estimates a loss of up to half that if they have to sell to us under WTO terms) and they are also giving up £39bn cash down and about $10bn per year annual subs, if this deal or something like it doesn't go through. I know they want to make an example of the UK to teach a lesson to any other country that's inclined to leave; but it's an expensive lesson.
The worry is that the EU suddenly find that the Irish backstop is not an issue after all and drop it, and MPs are so relieved that they will sign anything after that. Hopefully enough of them won't fall for it. Or hopefully again, the EU will be too stupid to try it.
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Re: #politicslive
Once Corbyn packs it in, he's a traitor trying to block the will of the British public, the majority of us want to leave and that's what's going to happen, like it or lump it, the British public have spoken to leave this European dictatorship behind and gain independence.Rileybobs wrote:You think things were worse before the government decided to run a referendum to leave the EU?
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Re: #politicslive
Bingo. Are we going to make Britain great again? I hope so, that would be totally awesome.Jakubclaret wrote:Once Corbyn packs it in, he's a traitor trying to block the will of the British public, the majority of us want to leave and that's what's going to happen, like it or lump it, the British public have spoken to leave this European dictatorship behind and gain independence.
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Re: #politicslive
Cheers DSR, but in the nicest possible way we've established where we both stand over a couple of years!
I was hoping for some new blood!
I was hoping for some new blood!
Re: #politicslive
Not true. Brexit was supposed to be about exiting the EU.nil_desperandum wrote:... Brexit was supposed to be all about the sovereignty of Parliament. Bercow's ruling last week asserted and ensured that MPS - not the govt are in control. which is exactly as it should be. ...
Parliamentary sovereignty was part of it, but only in the sense that Parliament would be the main governing body instead of being subordinate to the EU. It was never intended that Parliamenary sovereignty would trump the popular vote. In the UK and any other democracy, ultimate sovereignty rests with the people - Parliament has never before exercised any right to overrule a popular vote on the grounds that the populace didn't vote the right way.
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Re: #politicslive
There won’t be a 2nd Ref - it would kill off the Tories, as would a permenant Customs Union, so May won’t go near it. There is a faint chance she would do it if she was going to lobby hard for Leave, but she must know now that winning votes isn’t her forte.
Norway without the “plus” is an option, albeit a bad one. She won’t go near the “no deal” option, and the EU will help her prevent it by allowing a transition to it after we have left (so during April and maybe longer), which some papers are reporting tonight.
So I feel she will get her deal eventually, probably with the backstop removed or reworded to get the ERG onboard, and probably with a condition of her resigning immediately afterwards. If I was guessing that will be passed sometime in April. That’s my current guess for what it’s worth.
Norway without the “plus” is an option, albeit a bad one. She won’t go near the “no deal” option, and the EU will help her prevent it by allowing a transition to it after we have left (so during April and maybe longer), which some papers are reporting tonight.
So I feel she will get her deal eventually, probably with the backstop removed or reworded to get the ERG onboard, and probably with a condition of her resigning immediately afterwards. If I was guessing that will be passed sometime in April. That’s my current guess for what it’s worth.
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Re: #politicslive
European bureaucracy was standing in the way of the progress of our great nation, remainers seem to get their kicks from other people's misfortune.
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Re: #politicslive
I think you'll find that there is considerable appetite within the EU nowadays for major reform, particularly in the area of immigration / freedom of movement. Just because Cameron was unable to achieve major reform 4 years ago doesn't mean to say that in the light of subsequent events throughout Europe - (and indeed the wider world), considerable reform could not be achieved, with the UK leading the way.Burnley Ace wrote:No we can’t! The EU aren’t going to renegotiate a better deal because they aren’t going to negotiate unless Article 50 has been invoked. That’s why they wouldn’t start negotiating in the first place!
But we are talking about 2 different scenarios.
You are describing the impossible "negotiations" we have been trying to have in order to leave with a better deal than we currently have when we are OUTSIDE the EU. It's always been obvious that they can't allow that.
I'm referring to revoking Article 50, and having proper "negotiations" that might facilitate a reformed EU with us at the top table. That isn't quite so impossible or unpalatable for the EU. Give that a couple of years, which is only as long as the proposed transition period, and if we get nowhere, then re-invoke Article 50. I see nothing in the ECJ ruling that prevents that, and I would even argue that we wouldn't be contradicting any of its nuances.
Re: #politicslive
Agreed, it won't tie us in perpetuity but we can't use it tactically to gain negotiation time as many are suggesting. You have to show intent that you want to remain to revoke.nil_desperandum wrote:You're correct and I never said that that wasn't the case, but based on the main thrust of the ruling which says that sovereign states must - and i'm paraphrasing - have the right to self-determination in terms of EU membership, and that we would remain "under the current /same terms", (i.e The Lisbon Treaty) then it doesn't seem to me that in theoretical terms they could prevent us revoking and then at some point re-invoking. So far as I know invoking Article 50 is the only way of leaving, so they couldn't make a binding ruling that tied us to the EU in perpetuity.
Anyway the whole issue is hypothetical and irrelevant, since the EU would clearly agree to us delaying the date of our EU exit, if it avoided the No deal scenario. (I've merely been arguing in terms of the actual theoretical implications of the ruling).