#politicslive

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
ClaretAndJew
Posts: 8020
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:08 am
Been Liked: 2814 times
Has Liked: 503 times
Location: Earth

Re: #politicslive

Post by ClaretAndJew » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:20 pm

Can I just ask..


What's Brexit?

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7301
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1823 times
Has Liked: 3948 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:22 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:No we can’t, you haven’t read the judgment and the bit about a withdrawal being unequivocal.
So at some point in the future we can't invoke Article 50? We're tied to the EU for eternity?.
That's just nonsense. We can leave at any point in the future that we choose.

bobinho
Posts: 9248
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:48 pm
Been Liked: 4070 times
Has Liked: 6538 times
Location: Burnley

Re: #politicslive

Post by bobinho » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:23 pm

No deal.

Blackrod
Posts: 5114
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:41 pm
Been Liked: 1348 times
Has Liked: 608 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Blackrod » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:24 pm

Greenmile wrote:Whilst I don’t class myself as “young”, this is ageist.



...and so is this.
Whilst I stated ' can be' so meaning may not be it is actually a scientific fact. The rational part of a brain is not fully developed until 25. Stating 'old people believe any old junk' is clearly not and is certainly derogatory.

Espia
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:15 pm
Been Liked: 88 times
Has Liked: 12 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Espia » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:25 pm

FactualFrank wrote:Don't answer for me. You degrade yourself when you think you can vote for people. You can't. So don't do it. You're actually arguing with someone who (as said) is on the fence. And why would anybody rewrite history? It's like a blank cheque where politics is concerned. There is nothing to cash. They all come out with the same crap. Corbyn is against May - HE IS NOT against her decision. He wants the same thing as her - but what else can he do, other than use that to gain power? By that I mean both May and Corbyn want to remain. We can all see it.
Who's answering for you ? You implied that reading the polls would inform me that they would tell me what the current direction of the electorate is.

I'm at a loss as to what you mean suggesting I'm voting for the people. I don't know what gave you that impression. I agree with you ... you can't ! That is my whole point . People are pontificating their own view to be the view of the majority. It doesn't.

I was on the fence at the time of the referendum. But I'm now firmly in the leave camp, mainly because of the way people want to rewrite history and change the question of the original referendum.

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3525
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 651 times
Has Liked: 2879 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:25 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I'm no fan of Corbyn or his personal stance on brexit, but the Labour Party position on a Customs Union and some close alignment with the Single Market is pretty clear; and some form of deal that included those would both solve the "Irish" question and almost certainly be accepted by the EU and secure a majority in Parliament.
So it’s going to be a custom union not The Custom Union and we’re going to be in alignment with the Single Market (wtf does that mean?). How much are we going to pay (like Norway do) for this access? We will still be under the rule of the ECJ, we will still have free movement, we will still be aligned with EU rules and regulations but have no say in what they are. How does that respect the referendum and what’s the point in leaving?

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3525
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 651 times
Has Liked: 2879 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:27 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:So at some point in the future we can't invoke Article 50? We're tied to the EU for eternity?.
That's just nonsense. We can leave at any point in the future that we choose.
Go and read the judgment and look up what unequivocal means. A bit of research before you comment always helps.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:27 pm

Blackrod

Both the most set in his way old person who still thinks the Germans are the enemy and a fresh faced 18 year old lass have exactly the same amount of votes.

That is a democracy

You sound like someone who isn't a democrat with the nonsense you are spouting on here.

saltaireclaret
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:57 pm
Has Liked: 1 time
Location: Saltaire, West Yorkshire

Re: #politicslive

Post by saltaireclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:29 pm

Is it just me or am I missing something.. This is a board for fans of Burnley fc there's a thousand and one sites to post about politics. If you want to do that go and find one. I have opinions but it's not for here. Most important UTC.

Espia
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:15 pm
Been Liked: 88 times
Has Liked: 12 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Espia » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:30 pm

FactualFrank wrote:Which is why leavers don't want it. They know they will lose. I know that, they know what, you know that.

We all know that.
If this is not an assumption then I don't know what is. re: another referendum.

Espia
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:15 pm
Been Liked: 88 times
Has Liked: 12 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Espia » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:30 pm

saltaireclaret wrote:Is it just me or am I missing something.. This is a board for fans of Burnley fc there's a thousand and one sites to post about politics. If you want to do that go and find one. I have opinions but it's not for here. Most important UTC.
Yes, you missed something the moment you clicked on a a thread title that was not in your interest.
These 3 users liked this post: Burnley Ace Damo hampsteadclaret

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7301
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1823 times
Has Liked: 3948 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:32 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Go and read the judgment and look up what unequivocal means. A bit of research before you comment always helps.
This is what it says:The ECJ has said that if the UK revoked Article 50, it would stay in the EU “under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a member state”.
Under current terms any state can invoke Article 50, that's what it's there for. It begins the process of leaving.

FactualFrank
Posts: 25445
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:46 am
Been Liked: 6930 times
Has Liked: 11660 times
Location: Leeds

Re: #politicslive

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:33 pm

Espia wrote:I was on the fence at the time of the referendum. But I'm now firmly in the leave camp, mainly because of the way people want to rewrite history and change the question of the original referendum.
We have miscommunicated at some point.

But I couldn't go from on the fence to leave purely due to propaganda - and that's what has basically happened.

The question remains. It's never changed. But if you are with me on the fence, it's never been a straight choice. There's been more buts than a billy goat.
This user liked this post: Lord Beamish

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3525
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 651 times
Has Liked: 2879 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:35 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:This is what it says:The ECJ has said that if the UK revoked Article 50, it would stay in the EU “under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a member state”.
Under current terms any state can invoke Article 50, that's what it's there for. It begins the process of leaving.
Google Article 50 and unequivocal - read the article on the Institute of Government site or one of the hundred others that explains what unequivocal means and how the U.K. cannot withdraw Article 50 to get more time.

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3525
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 651 times
Has Liked: 2879 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:39 pm

[*]
nil_desperandum wrote:This is what it says:The ECJ has said that if the UK revoked Article 50, it would stay in the EU “under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a member state”.
Under current terms any state can invoke Article 50, that's what it's there for. It begins the process of leaving.
The decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019. That would still require agreement from the EU member states. Rather, a notification revoking Article 50 means not leaving the EU at all. In other words, it would stop Brexit.

Espia
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:15 pm
Been Liked: 88 times
Has Liked: 12 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Espia » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:43 pm

FactualFrank wrote:We have miscommunicated at some point.

But I couldn't go from on the fence to leave purely due to propaganda - and that's what has basically happened.

The question remains. It's never changed. But if you are with me on the fence, it's never been a straight choice. There's been more buts than a billy goat.
Absolutely. I agree with you. I was teetering on the verge of abstaining from voting in 2016 because in all honesty this wasn't a single question referendum. It was a combination of dozens and dozens of issues all rolled into one. I couldn't get my head around it and thought it a deriliction of personal responsibility to vote on something I didn't understand. But at the 11th hour I voted with my heart rather than my head and voted to leave.

The reason I'm resolutely now in the Leave camp is not because I'm more certain that it's the most prosperous/best economic thing to do it's because to not go ahead with it would be a betrayal of the original democratic decision that was made .... for better or worse. And that's not to say that I'm jumping off the bridge when I have the option to not to do. It's saying that the vote has to be respected and time will tell whether it was for the better or not. It's not a forgone conclusion.
This user liked this post: Hipper

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7301
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1823 times
Has Liked: 3948 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:46 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:[*]

The decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019. That would still require agreement from the EU member states. Rather, a notification revoking Article 50 means not leaving the EU at all. In other words, it would stop Brexit.
Your'e stating the obvious, it does stop brexit, but nowhere in the ruling does it say that we can't "leave" by invoking Article 50 at some point in the future, and it doesn't give a timescale - so far as I can see.
So basically we can revoke Article 50, and then try to renegotiate a better deal with the EU over a period of time, and if unsuccessful just leave by invoking Article 50. That may not be in the spirit of the ruling, but I see nothing that contradicts / prevents it.
Here's the judgement:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0191en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

basil6345789
Posts: 2703
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:22 pm
Been Liked: 481 times
Has Liked: 2289 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by basil6345789 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:49 pm

What's a Parliamentarian - is it an MP?

Rileybobs
Posts: 16689
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:37 pm
Been Liked: 6902 times
Has Liked: 1471 times
Location: Leeds

Re: #politicslive

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:57 pm

ClaretAL wrote:The problem is the youth has been targeted and bought it hook, line and sinker, and now what was 14 year old originally, a generation that have been pinpointed for no respect and lawlessness are now 16 and can vote in this. Taking in to account what our forefathers died for i find it an absolute disgrace to there bravery to be honest. And to make matters worse we have a no confidence vote which could create a general election, which will probably vote in Labour just to show opposition and we get a PM who backed the IRA and wont wear a poppy and disagrees with honouring our fallen. this is where we are heading.....REALLY????
I’m not sure whether this is parody. But assuming it’s not, it’s waffle like this that gives leave voters a bad name. I mean poppies man? Give your head a shake.
This user liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7301
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1823 times
Has Liked: 3948 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:03 pm

basil6345789 wrote:What's a Parliamentarian - is it an MP?
Are you excluding the Lords from Parliament? - many would like to do so

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9441
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:03 pm

A hard Brexit, sever all ties was the only realistic viable option from the outset, that course of action would have prevented & solved everything, no negotiation & no deal, simples.

Rileybobs
Posts: 16689
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:37 pm
Been Liked: 6902 times
Has Liked: 1471 times
Location: Leeds

Re: #politicslive

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:06 pm

To the people who are crying about the possibility of a second referendum because it would be undemocratic, what’s the issue? Unless I’m missing something a second referendum would be a totally democratic way to determine whether or how the British public want to leave the EU currently. Just admit that you’re scared that the majority would vote for remain and therefore you are not interested in democracy in the slightest.

A work colleague today was blaming ‘my lot’ (remainers) for the current mess that we find ourselves in. He is a staunch remainer and voted for May to lead the country. Go figure?

Remember how nice everything was a few years ago? We were all happy, we all got along, there was a range of topics covered on the news. Kind of makes you wonder why we’re persevering with this sh*t storm.
This user liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex

quoonbeatz
Posts: 4491
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:03 am
Been Liked: 2562 times
Has Liked: 757 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by quoonbeatz » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:08 pm

Sorry folks, I had to retire the RingoMcCartney parody account. It was taking up far too much of my time and reality seemed to have outdafted him.
This user liked this post: nil_desperandum

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3525
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 651 times
Has Liked: 2879 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:08 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Your'e stating the obvious, it does stop brexit, but nowhere in the ruling does it say that we can't "leave" by invoking Article 50 at some point in the future, and it doesn't give a timescale - so far as I can see.
So basically we can revoke Article 50, and then try to renegotiate a better deal with the EU over a period of time, and if unsuccessful just leave by invoking Article 50. That may not be in the spirit of the ruling, but I see nothing that contradicts / prevents it.
Here's the judgement:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0191en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
No we can’t! The EU aren’t going to renegotiate a better deal because they aren’t going to negotiate unless Article 50 has been invoked. That’s why they wouldn’t start negotiating in the first place!

What you are suggesting is that Parliament pass a vote to remain in the EU knowing that it’s a ruse to deceive them so that we can start to renegotiate a deal. That’s a good footing to start!! It’s just a ridiculous proposition

Claret-On-A-T-Rex
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:09 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:A hard Brexit, sever all ties was the only realistic viable option from the outset, that course of action would have prevented & solved everything, no negotiation & no deal, simples.
Simples :)

I love these easy, cut off all trade with our largest trading partner and destroy all our industry solutions.
These 2 users liked this post: Burnley Ace Taffy on the wing

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3525
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 651 times
Has Liked: 2879 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Burnley Ace » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:10 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:A hard Brexit, sever all ties was the only realistic viable option from the outset, that course of action would have prevented & solved everything, no negotiation & no deal, simples.
What’s your view on the Good Friday agreement and how does that fit in with the sever all ties?
This user liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:11 pm

simples.
It isn't though.

It never was

it never will be

saying glib stuff doesn't help in the slightest
This user liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex

aggi
Posts: 8763
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2109 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by aggi » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:11 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Your'e stating the obvious, it does stop brexit, but nowhere in the ruling does it say that we can't "leave" by invoking Article 50 at some point in the future, and it doesn't give a timescale - so far as I can see.
So basically we can revoke Article 50, and then try to renegotiate a better deal with the EU over a period of time, and if unsuccessful just leave by invoking Article 50. That may not be in the spirit of the ruling, but I see nothing that contradicts / prevents it.
Here's the judgement:
https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/doc ... 0191en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That isn't the ruling, just the summary. The full ruling is here http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/d ... id=8611623" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's a bit more technical but it does suggest that Article 50 can only be revoked if the intention is to remain a member and a vote or similar has been held to show that. Which would mean a vote would have to be held (either in parliament or a referendum) saying we want to remain (and not that we want to remain whilst we regroup to give us negotiation time, etc). Can you see that happening?

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9441
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:12 pm

Rileybobs wrote:To the people who are crying about the possibility of a second referendum because it would be undemocratic, what’s the issue? Unless I’m missing something a second referendum would be a totally democratic way to determine whether or how the British public want to leave the EU currently. Just admit that you’re scared that the majority would vote for remain and therefore you are not interested in democracy in the slightest.

A work colleague today was blaming ‘my lot’ (remainers) for the current mess that we find ourselves in. He is a staunch remainer and voted for May to lead the country. Go figure?

Remember how nice everything was a few years ago? We were all happy, we all got along, there was a range of topics covered on the news. Kind of makes you wonder why we’re persevering with this sh*t storm.
Happy a few years ago? Everything was anything but nice hence the need for a referendum in the 1st place, I'm not sure which rock you've been residing under within the last decade, the sh*tstorm is surfacing & has been surfacing for 1 sole reason, a minority refusal to accept a majority decision.

tiger76
Posts: 25697
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:43 pm
Been Liked: 4644 times
Has Liked: 9849 times
Location: Glasgow

Re: #politicslive

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Any of you Brexiteers accept that we might need to extend Article 50, or are you happy with a "No Deal"?

Again, I'm going to need some concrete info why a "No Deal" works for the UK btw
Given the time constraints the most obvious route is some form of CU,this should assuage any Irish border fears and gives business some clarity at least in the short term,while the trade negotiations continue,some brexitters won't like it but i don't see any other options,May doesn't appear to have this on her mind ATM however.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9441
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:13 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:What’s your view on the Good Friday agreement and how does that fit in with the sever all ties?
Harder border not our problem, Ireland is Ireland.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:16 pm

Is there anything about this process you actually understand Jakub?

Apart from that its all "simples" obviously
This user liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex

Rileybobs
Posts: 16689
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:37 pm
Been Liked: 6902 times
Has Liked: 1471 times
Location: Leeds

Re: #politicslive

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:17 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Happy a few years ago? Everything was anything but nice hence the need for a referendum in the 1st place, I'm not sure which rock you've been residing under within the last decade, the sh*tstorm is surfacing & has been surfacing for 1 sole reason, a minority refusal to accept a majority decision.
You think things were worse before the government decided to run a referendum to leave the EU?

Espia
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:15 pm
Been Liked: 88 times
Has Liked: 12 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Espia » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:18 pm

Rileybobs wrote:To the people who are crying about the possibility of a second referendum because it would be undemocratic, what’s the issue? Unless I’m missing something a second referendum would be a totally democratic way to determine whether or how the British public want to leave the EU currently. .
Yes you are clearly missing something but you don't realise it. And that is where does it all end ?

So, just supposing, you ignore the first referendum and have a second one. If the Remainers win it then you would proffer the argument ... that's it , we don't need to discuss it anymore. Which by default is a hypocritical stance because you have scuppered the very idea that a result of a referendum should be absolute.

Whereas, if the Leavers win the second referendum, your argument will then be that at the end of the 2 year transition period, when then revelation of what the EU will allow us to comply with in order to come to agreement on Trade (amongst everything else) is that we now really, really, really know what Leave means we ought to have yet another, a third, referendum. This will then go on and on until eventually Remain will win their desired outcome.

I can't understand why you don't get this.

claret59
Posts: 352
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:10 pm
Been Liked: 138 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by claret59 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:19 pm

The vitriol exhibited on here by some posters is shocking. When discussing this issue among family, friends and strangers do we really show such hatred to an opposing view to our own? A hatred that is almost personal. Is this a natural way to go about things? I hope not and I have no experience of it in the circles in which I move.
It worries me that if this board is typical then the country is being torn apart.

Rileybobs
Posts: 16689
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:37 pm
Been Liked: 6902 times
Has Liked: 1471 times
Location: Leeds

Re: #politicslive

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:20 pm

Espia wrote:Yes you are clearly missing something but you don't realise it. And that is where does it all end ?

So, just supposing, you ignore the first referendum and have a second one. If the Remainers win it then you would proffer the argument ... that's it , we don't need to discuss it anymore. Which by default is a hypocritical stance because you have scuppered the very idea that a result of a referendum should be absolute.

Whereas, if the Leavers win the second referendum, your argument will then be that at the end of the 2 year transition period, when then revelation of what the EU will allow us to comply with in order to come to agreement on Trade (amongst everything else) is that we now really, really, really know what Leave means we ought to have yet another, a third, referendum. This will then go on and on until eventually Remain will win their desired outcome.

I can't understand why you don't get this.
Why would it go on and on until Remain win with their desired outcome? Why would the minority end up winning?

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9441
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:20 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Is there anything about this process you actually understand Jakub?

Apart from that its all "simples" obviously
I understand its a extremely concept the problem is neanderthals failure to grasp & wish to regress.

dsr
Posts: 15139
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4549 times
Has Liked: 2241 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by dsr » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:21 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:Simples :)

I love these easy, cut off all trade with our largest trading partner and destroy all our industry solutions.
I don't think you quite understand the WTO rules. The WTO rules say that we trade under certain basic rules, essentially involving tariffs (duty) on imports and exports. WTO rules do not say that we cannot trade with a county. As proof, look at the USA - we trade with the USA under WTO rules, and yet they are our biggest single export destination by country.

If you were that badly adrift, it's no wonder you were so anti-Brexit.

As it happens, Brexit will put 10% tariffs (approx.) on goods. This is just as disastrous a move as when the pound rises by 10% against the Euro - but fortunately, this time round, the pound has dropped by 10% against the Euro, so it's pretty much a wash. Of course, imports have risen by 20% as a result, which might force Euro exporters to relocate their factories and jobs to the UK to save money, and might cause a big reduction in our dangerously high balance of payments deficit - but surely that would be a good thing?

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:22 pm

That makes no sense

A 2nd referendum if won by leave would result in us leaving.

A 2nd referendum if won by remain would result in us staying.

(this to espia btw)
This user liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex

Claret-On-A-T-Rex
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:23 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I understand its a extremely concept the problem is neanderthals failure to grasp & wish to regress.
Awesome :)
This user liked this post: Taffy on the wing

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7301
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1823 times
Has Liked: 3948 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:26 pm

aggi wrote:That isn't the ruling, just the summary. The full ruling is here http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/d ... id=8611623" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's a bit more technical but it does suggest that Article 50 can only be revoked if the intention is to remain a member and a vote or similar has been held to show that. Which would mean a vote would have to be held (either in parliament or a referendum) saying we want to remain (and not that we want to remain whilst we regroup to give us negotiation time, etc). Can you see that happening?
You're correct and I never said that that wasn't the case, but based on the main thrust of the ruling which says that sovereign states must - and i'm paraphrasing - have the right to self-determination in terms of EU membership, and that we would remain "under the current /same terms", (i.e The Lisbon Treaty) then it doesn't seem to me that in theoretical terms they could prevent us revoking and then at some point re-invoking. So far as I know invoking Article 50 is the only way of leaving, so they couldn't make a binding ruling that tied us to the EU in perpetuity.
Anyway the whole issue is hypothetical and irrelevant, since the EU would clearly agree to us delaying the date of our EU exit, if it avoided the No deal scenario. (I've merely been arguing in terms of the actual theoretical implications of the ruling).

dsr
Posts: 15139
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4549 times
Has Liked: 2241 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by dsr » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Any of you Brexiteers accept that we might need to extend Article 50, or are you happy with a "No Deal"?

Again, I'm going to need some concrete info why a "No Deal" works for the UK btw
Concrete evidence? George Gideon had the entire Treasury behind his forecasts of doom and gloom if the Brexit vote was lost, and he was a million miles out. If you want anybody with few resources than the Chancellor to produce cast iron proof in a way to satisfy the most blinkered Remainer, then you'll be waiting a long time.

I'm happy to accept "no deal". I doubt we will get it, because the EU know that they are giving up access to their biggest export market (worth €320bn per year, and the IW Institute in Cologne estimates a loss of up to half that if they have to sell to us under WTO terms) and they are also giving up £39bn cash down and about $10bn per year annual subs, if this deal or something like it doesn't go through. I know they want to make an example of the UK to teach a lesson to any other country that's inclined to leave; but it's an expensive lesson.

The worry is that the EU suddenly find that the Irish backstop is not an issue after all and drop it, and MPs are so relieved that they will sign anything after that. Hopefully enough of them won't fall for it. Or hopefully again, the EU will be too stupid to try it.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9441
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:29 pm

Rileybobs wrote:You think things were worse before the government decided to run a referendum to leave the EU?
Once Corbyn packs it in, he's a traitor trying to block the will of the British public, the majority of us want to leave and that's what's going to happen, like it or lump it, the British public have spoken to leave this European dictatorship behind and gain independence.

Rileybobs
Posts: 16689
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:37 pm
Been Liked: 6902 times
Has Liked: 1471 times
Location: Leeds

Re: #politicslive

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:30 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Once Corbyn packs it in, he's a traitor trying to block the will of the British public, the majority of us want to leave and that's what's going to happen, like it or lump it, the British public have spoken to leave this European dictatorship behind and gain independence.
Bingo. Are we going to make Britain great again? I hope so, that would be totally awesome.
These 2 users liked this post: Claret-On-A-T-Rex longsidepies

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: #politicslive

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:32 pm

Cheers DSR, but in the nicest possible way we've established where we both stand over a couple of years!

I was hoping for some new blood!

dsr
Posts: 15139
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4549 times
Has Liked: 2241 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by dsr » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:32 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:... Brexit was supposed to be all about the sovereignty of Parliament. Bercow's ruling last week asserted and ensured that MPS - not the govt are in control. which is exactly as it should be. ...
Not true. Brexit was supposed to be about exiting the EU.

Parliamentary sovereignty was part of it, but only in the sense that Parliament would be the main governing body instead of being subordinate to the EU. It was never intended that Parliamenary sovereignty would trump the popular vote. In the UK and any other democracy, ultimate sovereignty rests with the people - Parliament has never before exercised any right to overrule a popular vote on the grounds that the populace didn't vote the right way.

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5231
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1623 times
Has Liked: 397 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:34 pm

There won’t be a 2nd Ref - it would kill off the Tories, as would a permenant Customs Union, so May won’t go near it. There is a faint chance she would do it if she was going to lobby hard for Leave, but she must know now that winning votes isn’t her forte.

Norway without the “plus” is an option, albeit a bad one. She won’t go near the “no deal” option, and the EU will help her prevent it by allowing a transition to it after we have left (so during April and maybe longer), which some papers are reporting tonight.

So I feel she will get her deal eventually, probably with the backstop removed or reworded to get the ERG onboard, and probably with a condition of her resigning immediately afterwards. If I was guessing that will be passed sometime in April. That’s my current guess for what it’s worth.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9441
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:34 pm

European bureaucracy was standing in the way of the progress of our great nation, remainers seem to get their kicks from other people's misfortune.

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7301
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1823 times
Has Liked: 3948 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:43 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:No we can’t! The EU aren’t going to renegotiate a better deal because they aren’t going to negotiate unless Article 50 has been invoked. That’s why they wouldn’t start negotiating in the first place!
I think you'll find that there is considerable appetite within the EU nowadays for major reform, particularly in the area of immigration / freedom of movement. Just because Cameron was unable to achieve major reform 4 years ago doesn't mean to say that in the light of subsequent events throughout Europe - (and indeed the wider world), considerable reform could not be achieved, with the UK leading the way.
But we are talking about 2 different scenarios.
You are describing the impossible "negotiations" we have been trying to have in order to leave with a better deal than we currently have when we are OUTSIDE the EU. It's always been obvious that they can't allow that.
I'm referring to revoking Article 50, and having proper "negotiations" that might facilitate a reformed EU with us at the top table. That isn't quite so impossible or unpalatable for the EU. Give that a couple of years, which is only as long as the proposed transition period, and if we get nowhere, then re-invoke Article 50. I see nothing in the ECJ ruling that prevents that, and I would even argue that we wouldn't be contradicting any of its nuances.

aggi
Posts: 8763
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2109 times

Re: #politicslive

Post by aggi » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:47 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:You're correct and I never said that that wasn't the case, but based on the main thrust of the ruling which says that sovereign states must - and i'm paraphrasing - have the right to self-determination in terms of EU membership, and that we would remain "under the current /same terms", (i.e The Lisbon Treaty) then it doesn't seem to me that in theoretical terms they could prevent us revoking and then at some point re-invoking. So far as I know invoking Article 50 is the only way of leaving, so they couldn't make a binding ruling that tied us to the EU in perpetuity.
Anyway the whole issue is hypothetical and irrelevant, since the EU would clearly agree to us delaying the date of our EU exit, if it avoided the No deal scenario. (I've merely been arguing in terms of the actual theoretical implications of the ruling).
Agreed, it won't tie us in perpetuity but we can't use it tactically to gain negotiation time as many are suggesting. You have to show intent that you want to remain to revoke.

Post Reply